Case Study : Project Risk Management
Case Study : Project RiskManagementJeremy HarrisonHead of Project Risk & Value ManagementThe HeadlineCaseProj studye Usi ct risk mng scariskare r nagemeesounrces tmanagemeffectively Maentnthrouenvir aging risghk proonmefile in Deliveri nta cong complecustonfidexmnceJere ersto stamy HkehoHeadarrisldersoMan of Projec nandagemt Risk&VNetwent,alueorkRail
The Possession The Problem The Response – the detail The Effect – the benefits.
Possessions What are ‘possessions’?– What do we want? – confidence in hand backto operation. Mini projects within the overall project withStart and End points Worksites within possessions.An example – possessioncomplexityKX possessionKings CrossPlatform Y KGXcommissioningTLP Core Area friarsBridge SlideMOGFPKManhole 4ATF prep worksZFDFleet PWestHampsteadOLE worksTLP Outer Areas possessionCRIHENMILATF cable worksTLP Other worksELSRDTSACSt Albanstrack slewLondon Bridge BoxWorks (Maintenancecontracted to manage)HPDLTNHarpendenbridge worksN229 Shard ofGlass pilingworksLUTLEAHLNLuton OLEworksN244 Gipsy HillTP Hut prepworksFLTBDM
Structure of the Process Worksites and hence possessionsbooked months (years in advance) Worksites – simple risk assessment– Risk Factor – 1 to 3– Profile Factor – 1 to 3– Impact Factor – 1 to 3.
Possession Quantified ScheduleRisk Assessment (QSRA) What is it in layman's terms?– Modelling effect of uncertainty and risks onthe deterministic plan– The challenge ‘Everything should be made as simple as possible,but no simpler’ Albert Einstein ‘1000 line plans’ into something that can bemodelled.What was the job?Tipton LevelCrossingReplacementEaster 2009
The contextWhat is driving the schedule?Tipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressSchedule Sensitivity IndexAnalysis0120 - Jack the box (main push)0160 - Backfill stage 265%0180 - Track ballast lower layer24%0190 - Ballast top layer and track laying0090 - Excvn Stage 3 & bottom up East of S&T24%19%0060 - Excavation stage 1 from West0140 - Bottom layer stone0080 - Excavation stage 20210 - Tamp track0220 - Top up ballast etc (incl reinstate track circuit leads, H&S)19%13%13%8%5%0260 - Handback worksite5%0050 - Excavation stage 1 from East0010 - Take possession4%3%0290 - Risk - high winds/weather delays workSimulation:Iterations:Latin Hypercube100042%1%Schedule Sensitivity IndexValues are displayed for:All tasks in the planDisplay settingsNormal tasks onlyShowing 14 highest tasks
Delivering ConfidenceTipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressEntire Plan : Finish DateAnalysis100% 14/Apr/09 14:30Simulation:Iterations:95% 14/Apr/09 04:0014590% 14/Apr/09 02:3080% 14/Apr/09 00:30Plan Finish Date:Converged in 200 iterations(variation 1% over 100 iterations)Total Plan Cost:Converged in 200 iterations(variation 1% over 100 iterations)70% 13/Apr/09 23:1565% 13/Apr/09 22:30Hits60% 13/Apr/09 22:158755% 13/Apr/09 21:3050% 13/Apr/09 21:1545% 13/Apr/09 20:4540% 13/Apr/09 20:1558Cumulative FrequencyConvergence75% 13/Apr/09 23:4511635% 13/Apr/09 19:4530% 13/Apr/09 19:1525% 13/Apr/09 19:0020% 13/Apr/09 18:1529Latin Hypercube100085% 14/Apr/09 01:3015% 13/Apr/09 17:45StatisticsMinimum:Maximum:Mean:Max Hits:Std Deviation:13/Apr/09 11:0014/Apr/09 14:3013/Apr/09 21:1515814.94Selected Confidence90%:Deterministic Finish:Probability14/Apr/09 02:3013/Apr/09 17:4515%10% 13/Apr/09 17:005%13/Apr/09 15:45013/Apr/09 10:4513/Apr/09 19:4514/Apr/09 04:4514/Apr/09 13:45Distribution (start of interval)Network RailDelivering ConfidenceLikelihood of completing the works50%80%95%Possession handback TimeTues 14th Apr 05:00Tues 14th Apr 05:00Tues 14th Apr 05:00Modelled CompletionTimeMon 13th Apr 21:15Tues 14th Apr 00:30Tues 14th Apr 04:00Project Float7hrs 45mins4hrs 30mins1hr
The QSRA Creating confidence– 90% confidence as normal threshold– The other 10% Contingency planning for the works Contingency planning for the train service– Using the QSRA to full advantage When do you need to react?The QSRA ProgrammeMaster Programme - Christmas 2009 (Pre-mitigated)Xmas 2009IDXMAS 2009XMAS 2009.4Primavera GanttDescription25 Dec '2009StartFinish202.00h24/12/2009 23:1502/01/2010 09:15201.75h24/12/2009 23:3002/01/2010 09:15XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400HANDOVER MILESTONESXMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0420Mainline WorksA5560RemainingDurationMaster Programme - Christmas 2009Farringdon Integrated ProgrammeXMAS 2009.4.0010 Possession Milestones & Key Events201.75h24/12/2009 23:3002/01/2010 09:15190.25h25/12/2009 07:4502/01/2010 06:00181.50h25/12/2009 07:45N246 - Support Works Part 1 Complete0.00hA5570Start of CoLOR Works Par t 1 - Fleet Sewer Works0.00hA5580CoLOR Wor ks Part 1 Complete - Fleet Sewer Works0.00hA5590Start of N246 Support Wor ks Part 20.00hA5600A561025/12/2009 08:450.00h30/12/2009 01:00A56800440 - CoLOR Float of 24hrs in main programme but exclude.0.00h30/12/2009 12:00A5690WSRL - Cable/Equipment Re-Instatement Complete0.00hA5700WSRL - Test Track Circuit in P'Way Area Complete0.00h30/12/2009 18:00A5710N246 - Support Works Part 3 Complete - Siding Reinstateme.0.00h01/01/2010 21:15A5770WSRL - Start of Wheels Free Correspondence Testing0.00hA5780WSRL - Wheels Free Correspondence Testing Complete0.00hA5790N246 - Start of Signal Documentation0.00h30/12/2009 22:0001/01/2010 21:150.00hA5170:0350.00h01/01/2010 21:1502/01/2010 03:4531/12/2009 00:3025/12/2009 01:4525/12/2009 02:0002/01/2010 05:450.00h25/12/2009 01:4525/12/2009 01:45 5%0.00h30/12/2009 02:1530/12/2009 02:15A5180: BTrain Movement - Train Departs (TBC)0.00hA5180:035RS: Class 73 loco failure0.00h30/12/2009 02:1530/12/2009 02:1530/12/2009 02:15WK40-2100NR Possession Main Line TLP - Setup Worksite/ Issue Permits0.75h25/12/2009 01:0025/12/2009 01:45WK40-2105NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (.1.50h24/12/2009 23:3025/12/2009 01:00WK40-2105: B NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (AC & DC)1.50h24/12/2009 23:3025/12/2009 01:00WK40-2105:021RISK - Late Hand Over of Possession - 5% 0.25h 0.5h 0.5h0.00h25/12/2009 01:0025/12/2009 01:00 5%WK40-2175NR Possession Main Line TLP - Start of Possession (Poss R.0.00h*24/12/2009 23:30WK40-2240NR Possession Main Line TLP - Energise & Handback AC/DC1.50h30/12/2009 23:00WK40-2355NR Possession Main Line TLP - End of Possession (Poss Re.0.00h31/12/2009 00:30WK40-3350NR Possession Main Line TLP - Works Complete0.00h30/12/2009 23:00A5380Start of N246 Support Wor ks Part 1 - Remove Mainline & SidingXMAS 2009.4.0010.0380WRSL Works - R North6.00h02/01/2010 05:4525/12/2009 01:45RS: Class 73 loco failureN246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding Com.02/01/2010 03:4502/01/2010 05:4502/01/2010 05:4525/12/2009 01:45A537030/12/2009 22:0030/12/2009 22:0024/12/2009 23:300.00hXMAS 2009.4.0010.0110N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding01/01/2010 21:1530/12/2009 18:0002/01/2010 06:00Train Movement - Train Departs (TBC)A518001/01/2010 15:4501/01/2010 15:450.00h0.25h25/12/2009 01:450.00h0.00h25/12/2009 01:4524/12/2009 1.00h1.00h0.75h30/12/2009 02:155%*24/12/2009 23:3031/12/2009 00:3031/12/2009 00:3030/12/2009 23:0025/12/2009 07:4525/12/2009 07:4549.50hMaximumDuration30/12/2009 18:0002/01/2010 03:450.00hMostLikely30/12/2009 12:00145.00hTrain Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)2 Jan '2010Minimum1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Duration30/12/2009 12:0002/01/2010 03:45Train Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2130/12/2009 01:0030/12/2009 22:0001/01/2010 21:150.00h1 Jan '201030/12/2009 01:0030/12/2009 18:008.75hN246 - Site Handback Checks1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2129/12/2009 11:4530/12/2009 12:00WSRL - Start Recconection/Test Smithfields SidingsWSRL - Start Test & Correspond Track Circuits31 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2125/12/2009 07:4530/12/2009 01:00WSRL - Recconection/Test Smithfields Sidings CompleteWSRL - Test & Correspond Track Circuits Complete30 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2101/01/2010 15:45A5730A5170: B29 Dec '200901/01/2010 15:45A5720A57601 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2129/12/2009 11:450.00hA575028 Dec '200925/12/2009 08:450.00hA57401 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2129/12/2009 11:450.00hN246 - Main Line Completion of Plain Lining for WSRLWSRL - Start of Cable/Equipment Re-InstatementA517027 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2129/12/2009 11:45CoLOR Wor ks Part 2 Complete - Manhole 4 ConstructionStart of N246 Support Wor ks Part 3A5670XMAS 2009.4.0010.0080NR Possession & Handback - Main Line26 Dec '200901/01/2010 21:1525/12/2009 07:45A5660XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0430Smithfield Sidings Work1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2125/12/2009 07:4525/12/2009 01:4527/12/2009 01:00A1460Shorten Possession1.00h27/12/2009 00:0027/12/2009 01:00A2140Take Possession & Isolation1.50h24/12/2009 23:3025/12/2009 01:001.50h1.50h0.25h0.50h0.50h25/12/2009 01:150.25h0.25h0.50hA3120Sign Signalling Back Into Use - R North0.50h26/12/2009 23:3027/12/2009 00:000.25h0.50h0.75hA5190A2140: BTake Possession & Isolation1.50h24/12/2009 23:3025/12/2009 01:00A2140:040Late possession and isolation f or St Pancras Bi-Di0.00h25/12/2009 01:0025/12/2009 01:00 5%Start of Wheels Free Testing - R North0.00h25/12/2009 11:00Sign Out SignallingCOSS Briefings0.25h0.75h25/12/2009 01:0025/12/2009 01:0025/12/2009 01:450.25h0.75h0.75hBF0005Start of Possession0.00h*24/12/2009 23:30BF1660End of Possession - R North0.00hA2370A3090XMAS 2009.4.0010.0390WRSL Works - R South25/12/2009 11:00*24/12/2009 23:3027/12/2009 01:0027/12/2009 01:00196.75h25/12/2009 01:4502/01/2010 06:30R South Disconnection2.50h25/12/2009 01:4525/12/2009 04:152.00h2.50h3.00hA5010Testing Documentation1.00h30/12/2009 22:0030/12/2009 23:000.75h1.00h1.25hA5035Sign Smithfield Sidings Back Into Use0.25h02/01/2010 06:1502/01/2010 06:300.25h0.25h0.25hA504030/12/2009 23:0030/12/2009 0hA1600Handback Possession - R South0.50hA5050Start of Wheels Free Testing - R South0.00h30/12/2009 18:00A5450Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Main Line0.00h29/12/2009 23:00A5460Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Main Line0.00hA5470S&T Testing - Main Line0.00hA5480S&T Testing Completed- Main Line0.00hA5490Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Smithfield Sidings0.00hA5500Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Smithfield SidingsA5510S&T Testing - Smithfield SidingsA5520S&T Testing Completed - Smithfield SidingsBF1640Sign-in Signalling - R SouthBF1670End of Possession - R SouthXMAS 2009.4.0010.0140N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Line Dbl Jnc30/12/2009 12:0030/12/2009 18:0025/12/2009 07:45WK40-6: BMobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)RISK - RRV Breakdown - 20% 1h 2h 3hWK40-6:018RISK - Operator Illness - 1% 1h 2h 3hWK40-6:019RISK - Off track access blocked by others (Access point pending) - .WK40-6:02230/12/2009 23:3026/12/2009 13:1525/12/2009 07:4526/12/2009 13:1599.00h25/12/2009 08:4529/12/2009 11:456.00h25/12/2009 08:4525/12/2009 14:456.00h25/12/2009 08:4525/12/2009 14:450.00h25/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 14:450.00h25/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 14:450.00h25/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 14:45RISK - Disruption by thir d Parties (NR track replacement etc) - 20% 3.0.00hStart of CoLOR Works Par t 1 - Fleet Sewer Works0.00h25/12/2009 08:45WK40-6010CoLORWorks Part 1 - Fleet Sew er Works Completed0.00hWK40-7Protect Existing Track & S&T6.00h25/12/2009 14:4525/12/2009 20:4535.25h29/12/2009 11:4530/12/2009 23:00XMAS 2009.4.0010.0120N246 Support Works Part 2 - Main Line Reinstatement02/01/2010 05:4530/12/2009 23:0030/12/2009 23:3025/12/2009 07:450.00hWK40-600002/01/2010 03:4502/01/2010 03:4502/01/2010 05:4530/12/2009 23:000.00h0.00hWK40-6:01501/01/2010 21:1502/01/2010 03:450.00hN246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl Jnc Co.Mobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)30/12/2009 18:0002/01/2010 03:450.00h29.50hStart of N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl .A5400WK40-630/12/2009 12:0001/01/2010 21:15A5390XMAS 2009.4.0010.3CoLOR Wor ks Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works30/12/2009 12:0030/12/2009 12:000.00h0.00h30/12/2009 18:0029/12/2009 23:0026/12/2009 13:151%1%0%0%8.00h3.00h25/12/2009 08:4529/12/2009 11:4529/12/2009 11:45
Critical Review Robust process tested, challenged,reliable and improving (QSRA results data analysis) Confidence – where are we? Interdependences LearningBS31100 Governance and structure– Are we doing what we say we are? Risk appetite– What level of risk can we and are we taking? The risk management process– Structured risk assessment process Risk response– Do we have appropriate contingency processes inplace?
What have we learnt? Process vs Outcome for creatingconfidence - THINKING Keep checking QSRA accuracy improving Quality of planning NEVER ASSUME ANY THING
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08-13-2015 Strategic Services Branch: Risk Management Lifecycle Page 1 Risk Management - All Project Phases . Purpose of Risk Management: Risk management is one of the primary knowledge areas of project management to be applied throughout the lifecycle of projects. Project Management Institute (PMI) defines project risk as:
81. Risk Identification, page 29 82. Risk Indicator*, page 30 83. Risk Management Ω, pages 30 84. Risk Management Alternatives Development, page 30 85. Risk Management Cycle, page 30 86. Risk Management Methodology Ω, page 30 87. Risk Management Plan, page 30 88. Risk Management Strategy, pages 31 89. Risk
Case Studies Case Study 1: Leadership Council on Cultural Diversity 19 Case Study 2: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 20 Case Study 3: Law firms 21 Case Study 4: Deloitte Case Study 5: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 23 Case Study 6: Commonwealth Bank of Australia 25 Case Study 7: The University of Sydney 26 Case Study 8 .
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3 Contents List of acronyms 4 Executive Summary 6 1 Introduction 16 2 Methodology 18 3 Case Studies 25 Case Study A 26 Case Study B 32 Case Study C 39 Case Study D 47 Case Study E 53 Case Study F 59 Case Study G 66 Case Study H 73 4 Findings 81 Appendix A - Literature findings 101 Appendix B - CBA framework 127 Appendix C - Stakeholder interview questionnaire 133
3 Project Risk Management Process Project risk management involves seven major phases: 1. Risk management planning. 2. Identify risk. 3. Perform risk analysis . 4. Evaluate and prioritize risk. 5. Plan risk response. 6. Implement risk respo nse. 7. Risk monitoring and control.
Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives (e.g. the objectives of an event). Risk management Risk management is the process of identifying hazards and controlling risks. The risk management process involves four main steps: 1. risk assessment; 2. risk control and risk rating; 3. risk transfer; and 4. risk review. Risk assessment
