Transport - IPCC
8TransportCoordinating Lead Authors:Ralph Sims (New Zealand), Roberto Schaeffer (Brazil)Lead Authors:Felix Creutzig (Germany), Xochitl Cruz-Núñez (Mexico), Marcio D’Agosto (Brazil), Delia Dimitriu(Romania / UK), Maria Josefina Figueroa Meza (Venezuela / Denmark), Lew Fulton (USA), ShigekiKobayashi (Japan), Oliver Lah (Germany), Alan McKinnon (UK / Germany), Peter Newman(Australia), Minggao Ouyang (China), James Jay Schauer (USA), Daniel Sperling (USA), GeetamTiwari (India)Contributing Authors:Adjo A. Amekudzi (USA), Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba (Brazil), Helena Chum (Brazil / USA),Philippe Crist (France / USA), Han Hao (China), Jennifer Helfrich (USA), Thomas Longden(Australia / Italy), André Frossard Pereira de Lucena (Brazil), Paul Peeters (Netherlands), RichardPlevin (USA), Steve Plotkin (USA), Robert Sausen (Germany)Review Editors:Elizabeth Deakin (USA), Suzana Kahn Ribeiro (Brazil)Chapter Science Assistant:Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba (Brazil)This chapter should be cited as:Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creutzig, X. Cruz-Núñez, M. D’Agosto, D. Dimitriu, M. J. Figueroa Meza, L. Fulton, S. Kobayashi, O.Lah, A. McKinnon, P. Newman, M. Ouyang, J. J. Schauer, D. Sperling, and G. Tiwari, 2014: Transport. In: Climate Change2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler,I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.599
TransportChapter 8ContentsExecutive Summary 60388.18.28.38.4600Freight and passenger transport (land, air, sea and water) 6058.1.1The context for transport of passengers and freight 6068.1.2Energy demands and direct / indirect emissions 608New developments in emission trends and drivers 6108.2.1Trends 6118.2.1.1Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon, and aerosols 6118.2.2Drivers 612Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioural aspects 6138.3.1Energy intensity reduction — incremental vehicle technologies 6138.3.1.1Light duty vehicles 6138.3.1.2Heavy-duty vehicles 6138.3.1.3Rail, waterborne craft, and aircraft 6148.3.2Energy intensity reduction — advanced propulsion systems 6148.3.2.1Road vehicles — battery and fuel cell electric-drives 6148.3.2.2Rail, waterborne craft, and aircraft 6158.3.3Fuel carbon intensity reduction 6158.3.4Comparative analysis 6168.3.5Behavioural aspects 616Infrastructure and systemic perspectives 6188.4.1Path dependencies of infrastructure and GHG emission impacts 6188.4.2Path dependencies of urban form and mobility 6198.4.2.1Modal shift opportunities for passengers 6208.4.2.2Modal shift opportunities for freight 621
TransportChapter 88.5Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation 6228.5.1Accessibility and feasibility of transport routes 6228.5.2Relocation of production and reconfiguration of global supply chains 6228.5.3Fuel combustion and technologies 6228.5.4Transport infrastructure 6238.6Costs and potentials 6308.7Co-benefits, risks and spillovers 6308.88.98.108.7.1Socio-economic, environmental, and health effects 6338.7.2Technical risks and uncertainties 6338.7.3Technological spillovers 633Barriers and opportunities 6338.8.1Barriers and opportunities to reduce GHGs by technologies and practices 6338.8.2Financing low-carbon transport 6368.8.3Institutional, cultural, and legal barriers and opportunities 636Sectoral implications of transformation pathways and s ustainable development 6378.9.1Long term stabilization goals — integrated and sectoral perspectives 6378.9.2Sustainable development 641Sectoral policies 6428.10.1Road transport 6428.10.2Rail transport 6458.10.3Waterborne transport 6458.10.4Aviation 6468.10.5Infrastructure and urban planning 6476018
Transport8Chapter 88.11Gaps in knowledge and data 6478.12Frequently Asked Questions 647References 650Dedication to Lee SchipperThis Transport chapter is dedicated to the memory of Leon Jay(Lee) Schipper. A leading scientist in the field of energy researchwith emphasis on transport, Lee died on 16 August 2011 at theage of 64. He was a friend and colleague of many of the Chapterauthors who were looking forward to working with him in his602appointed role as Review Editor. Lee’s passing is a great loss tothe research field of transport, energy, and the environment andhis expertise and guidance in the course of writing this chapterwas sorely missed by the author team, as were his musical talents.
Chapter 8Executive SummaryReducing global transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionswill be challenging since the continuing growth in passengerand freight activity could outweigh all mitigation measuresunless transport emissions can be strongly decoupled from GDPgrowth (high confidence).The transport sector produced 7.0 GtCO2eq of direct GHG emissions(including non-CO2 gases) in 2010 and hence was responsible forapproximately 23 % of total energy-related CO2 emissions (6.7 GtCO2)[8.1]. Growth in GHG emissions has continued since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in spite of more efficient vehicles (road, rail, watercraft, and aircraft) and policies being adopted. (robust evidence, highagreement) [Section 8.1, 8.3]Without aggressive and sustained mitigation policies being implemented, transport emissions could increase at a faster rate than emissions from the other energy end-use sectors and reach around 12 GtCO2eq / yr by 2050. Transport demand per capita in developing andemerging economies is far lower than in Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) countries but is expectedto increase at a much faster rate in the next decades due to risingincomes and development of infrastructure. Analyses of both sectoraland integrated model scenarios suggest a higher emission reductionpotential in the transport sector than the levels found possible in AR4and at lower costs. Since many integrated models do not contain adetailed representation of infrastructural and behavioural changes,their results for transport can possibly be interpreted as conservative. If pricing and other stringent policy options are implemented inall regions, substantial decoupling of transport GHG emissions fromgross domestic product (GDP) growth seems possible. A strong slowing of light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel growth per capita has alreadybeen observed in several OECD cities suggesting possible saturation.(medium evidence, medium agreement) [8.6, 8.9, 8.10]Avoided journeys and modal shifts due to behavioural change,uptake of improved vehicle and engine performance technologies, low-carbon fuels, investments in related infrastructure,and changes in the built environment, together offer high mitigation potential (high confidence).Transportinfrastructure, and modifying roads, airports, ports, and railwaysto become more attractive for users and minimize travel time anddistance; lowering energy intensity (MJ / passenger km or MJ / tonne km) — byenhancing vehicle and engine performance, using lightweightmaterials, increasing freight load factors and passenger occupancyrates, deploying new technologies such as electric 3-wheelers; reducing carbon intensity of fuels (CO2eq / MJ) — by substituting oilbased products with natural gas, bio-methane, or biofuels, electricity or hydrogen produced from low GHG sources.In addition, indirect GHG emissions arise during the construction ofinfrastructure, manufacture of vehicles, and provision of fuels (well-totank). (robust evidence, high agreement) [8.3, 8.4, 8.6 and Chapters10, 11, 12]Both short- and long-term transport mitigation strategies areessential if deep GHG reduction ambitions are to be achieved(high confidence).Short-term mitigation measures could overcome barriers to low-carbon transport options and help avoid future lock-in effects resulting,for example, from the slow turnover of vehicle stock and infrastructureand expanding urban sprawl. Changing behaviour of consumers andbusinesses will likely play an important role but is challenging and thepossible outcomes, including modal shift, are difficult to quantify. Business initiatives to decarbonize freight transport have begun, but needsupport from policies that encourage shifting to low-carbon modessuch as rail or waterborne options where feasible, and improving logistics. The impact of projected growth in world trade on freight transport emissions may be partly offset in the near term by more efficientvehicles, operational changes, ‘slow steaming’ of ships, eco-driving andfuel switching. Other short-term mitigation strategies include reducingaviation contrails and emissions of particulate matter (including blackcarbon), tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors (including NOx)that can have human health and mitigation co-benefits in the shortterm. (medium evidence, medium agreement) [8.2, 8.3, 8.6, 8.10] avoiding journeys where possible — by, for example, densifyingurban landscapes, sourcing localized products, internet shopping,restructuring freight logistics systems, and utilizing advanced information and communication technologies (ICT);Methane-based fuels are already increasing their share for roadvehicles and waterborne craft. Electricity produced from low-carbon sources has near-term potential for electric rail and short- tomedium-term potential as electric buses, light-duty and 2-wheelroad vehicles are deployed. Hydrogen fuels from low-carbon sourcesconstitute longer-term options. Gaseous and liquid-biofuels can provide co-benefits. Their mitigation potential depends on technologyadvances (particularly advanced ‘drop-in’ fuels for aircraft and othervehicles) and sustainable feedstocks. (medium evidence, mediumagreement) [8.2, 8.3] modal shift to lower-carbon transport systems — encouraged byincreasing investment in public transport, walking and cyclingThe technical potential exists to substantially reduce the current CO2eqemissions per passenger or tonne kilometre for all modes by 2030Direct (tank-to-wheel) GHG emissions from passenger and freighttransport can be reduced by:6038
Transport8and beyond. Energy efficiency and vehicle performance improvementsrange from 30 – 50 % relative to 2010 depending on mode and vehicletype. Realizing this efficiency potential will depend on large investments by vehicle manufacturers, which may require strong incentivesand regulatory policies in order to achieve GHG emissions reductiongoals. (medium evidence, medium agreement) [8.3, 8.6, 8.10]Over the medium-term (up to 2030) to long-term (to 2050 andbeyond), urban (re)development and investments in new infrastructure, linked with integrated urban planning, transit-oriented development and more compact urban form that supports cycling and walkingcan all lead to modal shifts. Such mitigation measures could evolveto possibly reduce GHG intensity by 20 – 50 % below 2010 baseline by2050. Although high potential improvements for aircraft efficiency areprojected, improvement rates are expected to be slow due to long aircraft life, and fuel switching options being limited, apart from biofuels. Widespread construction of high-speed rail systems could partiallyreduce short-to-medium-haul air travel demand. For the transport sector, a reduction in total CO2eq emissions of 15 – 40 % could be plausible compared to baseline activity growth in 2050. (medium evidence,medium agreement) [8.3, 8.4, 8.6, 8.9, 12.3, 12.5]Barriers to decarbonizing transport for all modes differ acrossregions, but can be overcome in part by reducing the marginalmitigation costs (medium evidence, medium agreement).Financial, institutional, cultural, and legal barriers constrain low-carbon technology uptake and behavioural change. All of these barriers include the high investment costs needed to build low-emissionstransport systems, the slow turnover of stock and infrastructure, andthe limited impact of a carbon price on petroleum fuels already heavily taxed. Other barriers can be overcome by communities, cities, andnational governments which can implement a mix of behavioural measures, technological advances, and infrastructural changes. Infrastructure investments (USD / tCO2 avoided) may appear expensive at themargin, but sustainable urban planning and related policies can gainsupport when co-benefits, such as improved health and accessibility,can be shown to offset some or all of the mitigation costs. (mediumevidence, medium agreement) [8.4, 8.7, 8.8]Oil price trends, price instruments on emissions, and other measuressuch as road pricing and airport charges can provide strong economicincentives for consumers to adopt mitigation measures. Regional differences, however, will likely occur due to cost and policy constraints.Some near term miti
Reducing global transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be challenging since the continuing growth in passenger and freight activity could outweigh all mitigation measures unless transport emissions can be strongly decoupled from GDP growth (high confidence). The transport sector produced 7.0GtCO 2 eq of direct GHG emissions (including .
1 REPORT OF THE 37TH SESSION OF THE IPCC Batumi, Georgia, 14 - 18 October 2013 1. OPENING OF THE SESSION Documents: IPCC-XXXVII/Doc.1, IPCC-XXXVII/Doc.1, Add.1 After the welcoming statement by Mr Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC, the following representatives of the host country took the floor:
1. Decisions IPCC-XLVII-2 on the IPCC Trust Fund Programme and Budget contained in Annex 1to the Report of the 4 th Session of the 7 IPCC (IPCC-47) include the approved revised 2018 and proposed 2019 budgets, a forecast 2020 and an indicative budget for 2021. Annex 11 to this document provides the revised 2019 budget for adoption by the 4th Session of the IPCC9
2 — The IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land What's in it for Africa? About this report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Key issues addressed in this presentation 1. About IPCC and the Special Report on CCS 2. What is CO2 capture and storage? 3. Sources, Capture, transport 4. Geological storage, Ocean storage, mineral carbonation 5. Maturity of the technologies 6. Cost and potential 7. Health, safety and .
Transport Management System of Nepal Nepalese transport management is affected by existing topographical condition of the country. Due to this only means of transport used in the country are road transport and air transport. In this paper only road transport is discussed. During the Tenth Plan period, the vehicle transport management
Quality Assurance and Quality Control Chapter 8 8.4 IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 8 QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL 8.1 INTRODUCTION An important goal of IPCC good practice guidance is to support the development of national greenhouse gas inventories that can be readily assessed in terms of quality and completeness.
Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL); IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC).
Convergence IPCC AR3 1998 IPCC AR4 2004 4TF Sub-Regional Hurricanes IPCC AR5 2010 500TF CCSM Grand Challenge . Resolving Turbulence Scales (Rotunno 2009) NCAR Regional Climate Simulation for 2046 Holland NCAR. . come into contact with humans Local rat populations fluctuate in response to
