Insight Report The Global Risks Report 2017 12th Edition
Insight ReportThe Global RisksReport 201712th Edition
The Global Risks Report 2017, 12th Edition ispublished by the World Economic Forum withinthe framework of The Global Competitivenessand Risks Team.The information in this report, or on whichthis report is based, has been obtained fromsources that the authors believe to be reliableand accurate. However, it has not beenindependently verified and no representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to theaccuracy or completeness of any informationobtained from third parties. In addition, thestatements in this report may provide currentexpectations of future events based on certainassumptions and include any statement thatdoes not directly relate to a historical factor a current fact. These statements involveknown and unknown risks, uncertainties andother factors which are not exhaustive. Thecompanies contributing to this report operatein a continually changing environment andnew risks emerge continually. Readers arecautioned not to place undue reliance on thesestatements. The companies contributing to thisreport undertake no obligation to publicly reviseor update any statements, whether as a resultof new information, future events or otherwiseand they shall in no event be liable for any loss ordamage arising in connection with the use of theinformation in this report.World Economic ForumGenevaWorld Economic Forum 2017 – All rights reserved.All rights reserved. No part of this publicationmay be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, orotherwise without the prior permission of theWorld Economic Forum.ISBN: 978-1-944835-07-1REF: 050117The report and an interactive data platform areavailable at http://wef.ch/risks2017World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.: 41 (0) 22 869 1212Fax: 41 (0) 22 786 2744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org
Figure 1: The Risks-Trends Interconnections MapSource: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note: Survey respondents were asked to select the three trends that are the most important in shaping global development in the next 10 years. For each of the three trendsidentified, respondents were asked to select the risks that are most strongly driven by those trends. The global risks with the most connections to trends are spelled out in thefigure. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description
Failed and failingstatesOil and gas pricespikeChronic disease,developed worldOil price shockChina economichard landingAsset pricecollapse2ndRetrenchmentfrom globalization(developed)Slowing Chineseeconomy ( 6%)Oil and gasprice spikePandemicsAsset pricecollapseRetrenchmentfrom globalizationInterstate andcivil warsPandemicsOil price shock1st2ndAsset pricecollapse2010Global governancegapsinfrastructureFiscal crisesBreakdown ofcritical informationChronic diseaseSlowing Chineseeconomy ( 6%)Fiscal crisesChronic diseaseOil and gasprice spikeRetrenchmentfrom globalization(developed)EconomicFiscal crisesinfrastructureChronic diseaseBreakdown ofcritical informationOil price spikesRetrenchmentfrom globalization(developed)Breakdown of critical information infrastructureAsset pricecollapse2009Retrenchmentfrom globalization(emerging)Global governancegapsChronic diseaseSlowing Chineseeconomy ( 6%)2011EnvironmentalExtreme energyprice volatilityAsset pricecollapseGeopoliticalconflictClimate changeFiscal crises2011Climate changeBiodiversity lossCorruptionFloodingStorms andcyclones2012GeopoliticalExtreme volatilityin energy andagriculture pricesimbalancesFood shortagecrisesWater supplycrisesMajor systemicfinancial failure2012Water supplycrisesCyber attacksRising greenhousegas emissionsChronic fiscalimbalancesSevere incomedisparity2013SocietalFailure of climatechange mitigationand adaptationDiffusion ofweapons of massdestructionChronic fiscalimbalancesWater supplycrisesMajor systemicfinancial failure2013Mismanagementof populationageingWater supplycrisesRising greenhousegas emissionsChronic fiscalimbalancesSevere incomedisparity2014TechnologicalCritical nderemploymentWater crisesClimate changeFiscal crises2014Cyber attacksClimate changeUnemploymentandunderemploymentExtreme weathereventsIncome disparity2015Failure of climatechange mitigationand adaptationInterstate conflictwith regionalconsequencesWeapons of massdestructionRapid and massivespread ofinfectious diseasesWater crises2015High structuralunemployment orunderemploymentState collapse orcrisisFailure of nationalgovernanceExtreme weathereventsInterstate conflictwith regionalconsequences2016Severe energyprice shockLarge-scaleinvoluntarymigrationWater crisesWeapons of massdestructionFailure of climatechange mitigationand adaptation2016Major naturalcatastrophesInterstate conflictwith regionalconsequencesFailure of climatechange mitigationand adaptationExtreme ilure of climatechange mitigationand adaptationMajor naturaldisastersWater crisesExtreme weathereventsWeapons of massdestruction2017Massive incidentof data fraud/theftLarge-scaleterrorist attacksMajor reme weathereventsSource: World Economic Forum 20017-2017, Global Risks ReportsNote: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and unemployment enteredthe set of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water crises and rising income disparity were re-categorized first as societal risks and then as a trend in the 2015 and 2016 Global Risks Reports, respectively. The 2006 editionof the Global Risks Report did not have a risks landscape5th4th3rd2008Asset pricecollapse2007Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact5th4th3rdMiddle EastinstabilityChronic diseasein developedcountries1st2010Asset pricecollapseBreakdown of critical information infrastructure2009Asset pricecollapse2008Asset pricecollapseBreakdown ofcritical informationinfrastructure2007Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of LikelihoodFigure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017
Figure 3: The Global Risks Landscape 2017Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 7, 1 representing a risk that is not likely to happen and 7 a risk that isvery likely to occur. They also assess the impact on each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and 5:catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description
Figure 4: The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2017Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016Note: Survey respondents were asked to identify between three and six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected. See Appendix B for more details. Toensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description
The Global RisksReport 201712th EditionStrategic PartnersMarsh & McLennan CompaniesZurich Insurance GroupAcademic AdvisersNational University of SingaporeOxford Martin School, University of OxfordWharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania
Contents4PrefaceBy Klaus Schwab5Foreword6Executive Summary8Introduction10Part 1: Global Risks 2017– Economy: Growth and Reform– Society: Rebuilding Communities– Technology: Managing Disruption– Geopolitics: Strengthening Cooperation– Environment: Accelerating Action2242Part 2: Social and Political Challenges232.1 Western Democracy in Crisis?292.2 Fraying Rule of Law and Declining CivicFreedoms: Citizens and Civic Space at Risk352.3 The Future of Social Protection SystemsPart 3: Emerging Technologies433.1 Understanding the Technology Risk Landscape483.2 Assessing the Risk of Artificial Intelligence533.3 Physical Infrastructure Networks and the FourthIndustrial Revolution58Conclusion60AppendicesAppendix A: Description of Global Risks, Trends andEmerging Technologies 2017Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2016 andMethodology68Acknowledgements
PrefaceAs in previous years, the analysiscontained in this Report builds on theannual Global Risks Perception Survey,completed by almost 750 members ofthe World Economic Forum’s globalmultistakeholder community.The year 2016 has seen profoundshifts in the way we view global risks.Societal polarization, income inequalityand the inward orientation of countriesare spilling over into real-world politics.Through recent electoral results in G7countries, these trends are set to havea lasting impact on the way economiesact and relate to each other. They arealso likely to affect global risks and theinterconnections between them.Against the background of thesedevelopments, this year’s Global RisksReport explores five gravity centresthat will shape global risks. First,continued slow growth combined withhigh debt and demographic changecreates an environment that favoursfinancial crises and growing inequality.At the same time, pervasive corruption,short-termism and unequal distributionof the benefits of growth suggest thatthe capitalist economic model may notbe delivering for people. The transitiontowards a more multipolar world orderis putting global cooperation understrain. At the same time, the FourthIndustrial Revolution is fundamentallytransforming societies, economies,and ways of doing business. Last butnot least, as people seek to reassertidentities that have been blurred byglobalization, decision-making isincreasingly influenced by emotions.In addition to these gravity centres, thisyear’s Global Risks Report presentsdeep-dive discussions of risks posedby ongoing political and societaltransformations, including challengesto democracy, closing space for civilsociety, and outmoded socialprotection systems. It also discussesrisks related to emerging technologiesof the Fourth Industrial Revolution andthe associated governance challenges.4The Global Risks Report 2017The year 2017 will present a pivotalmoment for the global community. Thethreat of a less cooperative, moreinward-looking world also creates theopportunity to address global risks andthe trends that drive them. This willrequire responsive and responsibleleadership with a deeper commitmentto inclusive development and equitablegrowth, both nationally and globally. Itwill also require collaboration acrossmultiple interconnected systems,countries, areas of expertise, andstakeholder groups with the aim ofhaving a greater societal impact. Wehope that The Global Risks Report2017 and the subsequent deliberationsat the World Economic Forum’s AnnualMeeting 2017 will contribute to adebate about pragmatic solutions.Klaus SchwabFounder and Executive ChairmanWorld Economic Forum
ForewordAs one of the Forum’s flagship reports,The Global Risks Report has been acollaborative effort since its first editionin 2006. It draws on the uniqueexpertise available within the Forumitself and its different communities andknowledge networks. It also buildsfirmly on the Forum’s ongoingresearch, projects, debates andinitiatives. As well as reflecting theviews of leaders from our variouscommunities through the Global RisksPerception Survey, the insightspresented here are the result ofnumerous discussions, consultations,and workshops.With this in mind, we would like tothank our Strategic Report Partners,Marsh & McLennan Companies andZurich Insurance Group, representedon the Steering Board by John Drzik,President, Global Risk and Specialties,Marsh; and Cecilia Reyes, Group ChiefRisk Officer, Zurich Insurance Group.Furthermore, Professor Schwab isgrateful to our Academic Advisers theNational University of Singapore,Oxford Martin School at the Universityof Oxford, and the Wharton RiskManagement and Decision ProcessesCenter at the University ofPennsylvania.The Report has greatly benefited fromthe dedication and valuable guidanceof the members of the Global Risks2017 Advisory Board. Members areRolf Alter, Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development(OECD); Sharan Burrow, InternationalTrade Union Confederation (ITUC);Winnie Byanyima, Oxfam International;Marie-Valentine Florin, InternationalRisk Governance Council (IRGC); AlGore, Generation InvestmentManagement; Donald Kaberuka,Harvard University; Steven Kou,National University of Singapore; JulianLaird, Oxford Martin School; PascalLamy, Jacques Delors Institute; Ursulavon der Leyen, Federal Minister ofDefence of Germany; Maleeha Lodhi,Ambassador and PermanentRepresentative of Pakistan to theUnited Nations; Gary Marchant,Arizona State University; ErwannMichel-Kerjan, Wharton RiskManagement and Decision ProcessesCenter, University of Pennsylvania;Nicolas Mueller, Federal Chancellery ofSwitzerland; Moisés Naím, CarnegieEndowment for International Peace;Kirstjen Nielsen, George WashingtonUniversity Center for Cyber andHomeland Security; Naomi Oreskes,Harvard University; Jonathan Ostry,International Monetary Fund; NourielRoubini, New York University; JohnScott, Zurich Insurance Group; RichardSmith-Bingham, Marsh & McLennanCompanies; Michelle Tuveson, Centrefor Risk Studies, University ofCambridge Judge Business School;Ngaire Woods, University of Oxford;and Sandra Wu Wen-Hsiu, Japan AsiaGroup Limited.We are also grateful to Aengus Collins,Practice Lead, Global Risks for hisleadership of this project and the GlobalRisks 2017 core project team membersCiara Browne, Nicholas Davis, Attilio DiBattista, Daniel Gomez Gaviria, ThierryGeiger, Gaëlle Marti, Thomas Philbeck,Katharine Shaw, and Stéphanie Verinfor their contributions to this Report.Last but not least, we would like tothank the Global Risks PerceptionSurvey 2016 review group, respondentswho completed the Global RisksPerception Survey and the participantsin the Global Risks workshops.Margareta Drzeniek HanouzHead of Competitiveness and Risks andMember of the Executive CommitteeRichard SamansHead of the Centre for the Global Agenda,Member of the Managing BoardThe Global Risks Report 20175
ExecutiveSummaryFor over a decade, The Global RisksReport has focused attention on theevolution of global risks and the deepinterconnections between them. TheReport has also highlighted thepotential of persistent, long-term trendssuch as inequality and deepeningsocial and political polarization toexacerbate risks associated with, forexample, the weakness of theeconomic recovery and the speed oftechnological change. These trendscame into sharp focus during 2016,with rising political discontent anddisaffection evident in countries acrossthe world. The highest-profile signs ofdisruption may have come in Westerncountries – with the United Kingdom’svote to leave the European Union andPresident-elect Donald Trump’s victoryin the US presidential election – butacross the globe there is evidence of agrowing backlash against elements ofthe domestic and international statusquo.The Global RisksLandscapeOne of the key inputs to the analysis ofThe Global Risks Report is the GlobalRisks Perception Survey (GRPS), whichbrings together diverse perspectivesfrom various age groups, countries andsectors: business, academia, civilsociety and government.This year’s findings are testament tofive key challenges that the world nowfaces. The first two are in the economiccategory, in line with the fact that risingincome and wealth disparity is rated byGRPS respondents as the mostimportant trend in determining globaldevelopments over the next 10 years.This points to the need for revivingeconomic growth, but the growingmood of anti-establishment populismsuggests we may have passed thestage where this alone would remedyfractures in society: reforming marketcapitalism must also be added to theagenda.With the electoral surprises of 2016 andthe rise of once-fringe parties stressingnational sovereignty and traditionalvalues across Europe and beyond, thesocietal trends of increasingpolarization and intensifying nationalsentiment are ranked among the top6Global Risks 2015five. Hence the next challenge: facingup to the importance of identity andcommunity. Rapid changes ofattitudes in areas such as gender,sexual orientation, race,multiculturalism, environmentalprotection and international cooperationhave led many voters – particularly theolder and less-educated ones – to feelleft behind in their own countries. Theresulting cultural schisms are testingsocial and political cohesion and mayamplify many other risks if not resolved.Although anti-establishment politicstends to blame globalization fordeteriorating domestic job prospects,evidence suggests that managingtechnological change is a moreimportant challenge for labour markets.While innovation has historically creatednew kinds of jobs as well as destroyingold kinds, this process may be slowing.It is no coincidence that challenges tosocial cohesion and policy-makers’legitimacy are coinciding with a highlydisruptive phase of technologicalchange.The fifth key challenge is to protectand strengthen our systems ofglobal cooperation. Examples aremounting of states seeking to withdrawfrom various international cooperationmechanisms. A lasting shift in theglobal system from an outward-lookingto a more inward-looking stance wouldbe a highly disruptive development. Innumerous areas – not least the ongoingcrisis in Syria and the migration flows ithas created – it is ever clearer howimportant global cooperation is on theinterconnections that shape the risklandscape.Further challenges requiring globalcooperation are found in theenvironmental category, which this yearstands out in the GRPS. Over thecourse of the past decade, a cluster ofenvironment-related risks – notablyextreme weather events and failure ofclimate change mitigation andadaptation as well as water crises – hasemerged as a consistently centralfeature of the GRPS risk landscape,strongly interconnected with manyother risks, such as conflict andmigration. This year, environmentalconcerns are more prominent thanever, with all five risks in this categoryassessed as being above average forboth impact and likelihood.
Social and PoliticalChallengesManaging the FourthIndustrial RevolutionAfter the electoral shocks of the lastyear, many are asking whether thecrisis of mainstream political parties inWestern democracies also representsa deeper crisis with democracy itself.The first of three “risks in focus”considered in Part 2 of the Reportassesses three related reasons to thinkso: the impacts of rapid economic andtechnological change; the deepening ofsocial and cultural polarization; and theemergence of “post-truth” politicaldebate. These challenges to thepolitical process bring into focus policyquestions such as how to makeeconomic growth more inclusive andhow to reconcile growing identitynationalism with diverse societies.The final part of this Report exploresthe relationship between global risksand the emerging technologies of theFourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Weface a pressing governancechallenge if we are to construct therules, norms, standards, incentives,institutions and other mechanisms thatare needed to shape the developmentand deployment of these technologies.How to govern fast-developingtechnologies is a complex question:regulating too heavily too quickly canhold back progress, but a lack ofgovernance can exacerbate risks aswell as creating unhelpful uncertaintyfor potential investors and innovators.The second risk in focus also relates tothe functioning of society and politics: itlooks at how civil society organization
The Global Risks Report 2017, 12th Edition is published by the World Economic Forum within the framework of The Global Competitiveness and Risks Team. The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been
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Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. 3 Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
