Minutes Of The Federal Open Market Committee, December 10 .
Page 1Minutes of the Federal Open Market CommitteeDecember 10–11, 2019A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committeeand the Board of Governors was held in the offices ofthe Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemin Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 10, 2019,at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, December11, 2019, at 9:00 a.m. 1PRESENT:Jerome H. Powell, ChairJohn C. Williams, Vice ChairMichelle W. BowmanLael BrainardJames BullardRichard H. ClaridaCharles L. EvansEsther L. GeorgeRandal K. QuarlesEric RosengrenPatrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, Neel Kashkari,Loretta J. Mester, and Michael Strine, AlternateMembers of the Federal Open Market CommitteeThomas I. Barkin, Raphael W. Bostic, and Mary C.Daly, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks ofRichmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectivelyJames A. Clouse, SecretaryMatthew M. Luecke, Deputy SecretaryDavid W. Skidmore, Assistant SecretaryMichelle A. Smith, Assistant SecretaryMark E. Van Der Weide, General CounselMichael Held, Deputy General CounselSteven B. Kamin, EconomistThomas Laubach, EconomistStacey Tevlin, EconomistLorie K. Logan, Manager, System Open MarketAccount 2Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary,Board of GovernorsEric Belsky, 3 Director, Division of Consumer andCommunity Affairs, Board of Governors; MatthewJ. Eichner, 4 Director, Division of Reserve BankOperations and Payment Systems, Board ofGovernors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Divisionof Supervision and Regulation, Board ofGovernors; Andreas Lehnert, Director, Division ofFinancial Stability, Board of GovernorsTrevor A. Reeve, Deputy Director, Division ofMonetary Affairs, Board of GovernorsJon Faust, Senior Special Adviser to the Chair, Officeof Board Members, Board of GovernorsJoshua Gallin, Special Adviser to the Chair, Office ofBoard Members, Board of GovernorsBrian M. Doyle, Wendy E. Dunn, Joseph W. Gruber,Ellen E. Meade, and Ivan Vidangos, SpecialAdvisers to the Board, Office of Board Members,Board of GovernorsLinda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office ofBoard Members, Board of GovernorsShaghil Ahmed, Senior Associate Director, Division ofInternational Finance, Board of Governors; DianaHancock, Senior Associate Director, Division ofResearch and Statistics, Board of GovernorsRochelle M. Edge, Eric M. Engen, Christopher J.Waller, William Wascher, Jonathan L. Willis, andBeth Anne Wilson, Associate EconomistsAntulio N. Bomfim and Robert J. Tetlow, SeniorAdvisers, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board ofGovernorsThe Federal Open Market Committee is referenced as the“FOMC” and the “Committee” in these minutes.2 The Committee appointed Lorie K. Logan to serve as themanager of the System Open Market Account at the conclusion of the meeting.Attended through the discussion of the review of the monetary policy framework.4 Attended through the discussion of developments in financial markets and open market operations.13
Page 2Federal Open Market CommitteeEric C. Engstrom, Senior Adviser, Division ofResearch and Statistics, and Deputy AssociateDirector, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board ofGovernorsElizabeth K. Kiser, Associate Director, Division ofResearch and Statistics, Board of Governors;Elizabeth Klee, Associate Director, Division ofFinancial Stability, Board of Governors; DavidLópez-Salido, Associate Director, Division ofMonetary Affairs, Board of GovernorsGlenn Follette, Patrick E. McCabe, 5 and John M.Roberts, Deputy Associate Directors, Division ofResearch and Statistics, Board of Governors;Matteo Iacoviello and Andrea Raffo, 6 DeputyAssociate Directors, Division of InternationalFinance, Board of Governors; Jeffrey D. Walker,3Deputy Associate Director, Division of ReserveBank Operations and Payment Systems, Board ofGovernorsEtienne Gagnon, Assistant Director, Division ofMonetary Affairs, Board of Governors; PaulLengermann, Assistant Director, Division ofResearch and Statistics, Board of GovernorsPenelope A. Beattie,3 Section Chief, Office of theSecretary, Board of Governors; Seung J. Lee, 7Section Chief, Division of International Finance,Board of GovernorsDavid H. Small, Project Manager, Division ofMonetary Affairs, Board of GovernorsMichele Cavallo and Kurt F. Lewis, PrincipalEconomists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Boardof Governors; Laura J. Feiveson,3 PrincipalEconomist, Division of Research and Statistics,Board of GovernorsNils Goernemann,3 Senior Economist, Division ofInternational Finance, Board of GovernorsDonielle A. Winford, Information ManagementAnalyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board ofGovernorsAttended Tuesday’s session only.Attended through the discussion of developments in financial markets and open market operations, and from the discussion of current monetary policy through the end of themeeting.56Becky C. Bareford, First Vice President, FederalReserve Bank of RichmondDavid Altig, Michael Dotsey, Jeffrey Fuhrer,3 andSylvain Leduc, Executive Vice Presidents, FederalReserve Banks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Boston,and San Francisco, respectivelyTodd E. Clark, Marc Giannoni,3 and Spencer Krane,Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks ofCleveland, Dallas, and Chicago, respectivelyJonathan P. McCarthy, Alexander L. Wolman, andPatricia Zobel, Vice Presidents, Federal ReserveBanks of New York, Richmond, and New York,respectivelyThomas D. Tallarini, Jr., Assistant Vice President,Federal Reserve Bank of MinneapolisKarel Mertens,3 Senior Economic Policy Advisor,Federal Reserve Bank of DallasDaniel Cooper, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor,Federal Reserve Bank of BostonScott Davis, Senior Research Economist and Advisor,Federal Reserve Bank of DallasJulie Hotchkiss,3 Research Economist and SeniorAdvisor, Federal Reserve Bank of AtlantaReview of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, andCommunication PracticesParticipants continued to discuss issues related to theongoing review of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policystrategy, tools, and communication practices. The staffsummarized the feedback received through the Fed Listens initiative, a series of 14 public-facing events conducted around the country with a broad range of individuals and groups. These events engaged with the public directly on issues pertaining to the dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.Representatives from underserved communities whoparticipated in the Fed Listens events generally saw thecurrent strong labor market as providing significant benefits to their communities, most notably by creatingAttended the discussion of economic developments and theoutlook.7
Minutes of the Meeting of December 10–11, 2019Page 3greater opportunities for individuals who have experienced difficulty finding jobs in the past. Nevertheless,these representatives noted that the benefits from current labor market conditions flowing to people in theircommunities were less than those implied by nationalstatistics, and they expressed concerns that the recentgains might not be sustained in the event of an economicdownturn. Business representatives reported experiencing challenges finding qualified workers and describedseveral initiatives to attract and retain workers, includingtraining programs and a willingness to employ individuals who are unlikely to have been considered in less favorable labor market conditions. Inflation developments elicited fewer comments at these events and weregenerally seen as posing less of a challenge than labormarket conditions. Representatives of retirees mentioned difficulties associated with the rising costs ofhealth care and prescription drugs, whereas those representing low- and middle-income communities pointedto the rising costs of basic necessities such as housing,utilities, and food. Business representatives emphasizedthe importance of low and stable inflation for planningand decisionmaking. Event participants were concernedabout rising costs of living and generally perceived lowinflation as desirable from that perspective. Event participants were asked about monetary policymakers’ concerns regarding overall inflation running persistently below 2 percent; they noted that the Federal Reserve couldbetter communicate its reasons for these concerns.When asked about the effects of changes in interestrates, representatives of underserved communities saidthat such changes had little effect on many members oftheir communities who have limited or no access tocredit. Representatives of retirees conveyed a more negative view of low interest rates, given the greater relianceof wealthier retirees on interest income. Business representatives generally found the low interest rate environment beneficial.The staff briefing also included an analysis of distributional considerations for monetary policy. Consistentwith the feedback received at the Fed Listens events, theevidence reviewed by the staff showed that workers whoare young, less educated, African American, or Hispanictend to face a greater-than-average risk of losing theirjobs during recessions. The staff used simulations froma specific macroeconomic model to explore how heterogeneity of households might affect the transmission ofeconomic shocks and changes in monetary policy to theeconomy. The staff’s simulations embedded the assumption that households have limited ability to borrow,which makes some households’ consumption spendingmore sensitive to changes in income. As a result, inthese simulations, downturns lead to larger contractionsin aggregate demand than would be the case if all households could borrow to support their consumptionspending in response to a loss in income. The amplification of recessionary shocks was especially large whenthe monetary policy response was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy interest rate.Overall, the analysis suggested that the costs of recessions, as well as the benefits of economic stabilization,might be larger than suggested by models that did notaccount for differences across households regardingtheir access to credit.Participants agreed that the Fed Listens outreach effortshad informed their understanding of the goals andtradeoffs associated with monetary policy and had provided highly useful input into their deliberations. Severalparticipants voiced their desire to continue the conversations initiated at the Fed Listens events. Participantsalso shared their appreciation of the feedback they receive on a regular basis from members of the public, including through the Federal Reserve System’s extensivenetworks of contacts and community outreach efforts.A few participants emphasized that policymakers’ engagement with the public helps build trust, fosters transparency, and reinforces the credibility of the Federal Reserve.Participants generally saw the feedback from Fed Listensevents as reinforcing the importance of sustaining theeconomic expansion so that the effects of a persistentlystrong job market reach more of those who, in the past,had experienced difficulty finding employment. Severalparticipants mentioned that sustaining strong labor market conditions helps workers build skills and cementtheir attachment to the labor force in a manner thatmight reduce the scarring effects of future downturnsand might increase the maximum sustainable level ofemployment over the longer run. A number of participants also emphasized that sustaining strong labor market conditions is helpful for meeting the Committee’ssymmetric 2 percent inflation goal.Some participants spoke to some of the challenges associated with assessing the maximum level of employment.A few participants noted that aggregate statistics masksignificant heterogeneity in labor market outcomes. Afew others pointed to the continued absence of significant wage and price pressure—traditionally seen as asymptom of a tight labor market—even as the unemployment rate had moved below most estimates of itslonger-run level. A few participants raised the possibilitythat the maximum sustainable level of employment had
Page 4Federal Open Market Committeeincreased as the expansion continued to draw workerswho would otherwise not be in the labor force.Regarding inflation, participants recognized that segments of the public generally do not regard the fact thataggregate inflation is running modestly below the Committee’s 2 percent goal as a problem. A few participantsnoted that the public’s view on this issue was understandable from the perspective of households and businesses going about their daily lives in an economy withlow and stable inflation. That said, a couple of participants cautioned that inflation could emerge as a concernamong members of the public if it became more volatileor ran at levels substantially away from the Committee’sgoal. Many participants also warned about the macroeconomic consequences of not achieving 2 percent on asustained basis. In particular, if inflation ran persistentlybelow the Committee’s objective, longer-term inflationexpectations could drift down, resulting in lower actualinflation. With lower inflation, nominal interest rateswould be lower as well and therefore closer to the ELB.As a result, the scope for monetary policy to support theeconomy in a future downturn through interest rate cutswould be reduced, a situation that would likely worseneconomic outcomes for households and businesses. Inlight of these considerations, participants generallyagreed that they need to communicate more clearly tothe public their rationale for, and commitment to,achieving 2 percent inflation on a sustained basis and ofensuring that longer-run inflation expectations are anchored at levels consistent with this objective. To ensurethe effectiveness of these and other communications,several participants stressed that the Federal Reserveneeds to adapt its communications to various audiences.A few participants emphasized that communicationsabout the Committee’s resolve to return inflation to2 percent need to be backed with actions and results toensure that the public sees these communications ascredible.With respect to the role of distributional considerationsin the pursuit of the dual-mandate objectives, severalparticipants noted that it was important for policymakersto be cognizant of how monetary policy affects differentsegments of the population. Most participants commented on the large costs that recessions and high unemployment impose on communities, notably on theirmost vulnerable constituents, and stressed the need formonetary policy to seek to avoid recessions in the firstplace or reduce their severity when they occur. A number of these participants emphasized that, while monetary policy actions can have different effects acrossgroups, monetary policy actions that are driven by thepursuit of maximum employment and stable prices ultimately benefit all groups. Participants viewed the roleof monetary policy as supporting a strong, stable economy that benefits all Americans. Various participantsnoted that monetary policy is a blunt instrument whoseeffects cannot be targeted to specific communities. Several participants remarked that while monetary policy actions can improve the conditions of vulnerable communities, notably by supporting a strong job market, theseactions may not reduce inequality in wealth and income.For these and other reasons, many participants emphasized that policies other than monetary policy are appropriate to directly address inequality. In addition, a coupleof participants cautioned that maintaining accommodative financial conditions could be counterproductive ifdoing so fueled financial imbalances and exacerbated thenext economic downturn.Participants agreed that their review of monetary policystrategy, tools, and communication practices would continue at future meetings and, as a result, that the Committee would not reaffirm its existing Statement onLonger-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy at theJanuary 2020 meeting. The Committee plans to revisitthis statement closer to the conclusion of the review,likely around the middle of 2020.Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market OperationsThe System Open Market Account manager first reviewed developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Market prices appeared to respondmainly to signs of stabilization in the U.S. and globaleconomies and to developments associated with tradepolicy. Market participants noted some risks to the outlook including Brexit and geopolitical factors.Regarding expectations for U.S. monetary policy, theOpen Market Trading Desk’s surveys and market-basedindicators pointed to a very high perceived likelihood ofno change in the target range for the federal funds rateat this meeting. The expected path of the federal fundsrate implied by the medians of survey respondents’modal forecasts remained essentially flat through 2020.Survey- and market-implied uncertainty about the nearterm outlook for monetary policy declined, with marketcommentary attributing the decrease in part to the Committee’s October communications. Survey respondentsplaced a higher probability on a reduction in the targetrange over 2020 than an increase.The manager turned next to a review of money marketdevelopments since the October meeting, starting withan update on the implementation of the Committee’s
Minutes of the Meeting of December 10–11, 2019Page 5strategy to ensure ample reserves. Reserve managementpurchases of Treasury bills continued at a pace of 60 billion per month, with propositions remainingstrong and little discernible effect on market functioning. While these purchases accumulated, the Desk continued to conduct regular repurchase agreement (repo)operations in order to maintain reserves at or above thelevel that prevailed in early September. Repos outstanding from these Desk operations totaled roughly 215 billion per day, consisting of both overnight and term operations.As reserve levels increased, the distribution of reservesacross bank types became comparable with where it wasin early September. The federal funds rate and otherovernight money market rates fell modestly and wereclose to the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate formost of the period. The intraday dispersion of rates wasalso lower than when reserves were at similar levels before September. In addition to helping keep reservesample, repo operations likely have reduced pressures inmoney markets and the dispersion in money marketrates.stance of monetary policy. The manager also discussedexpectations to gradually transition away from activerepo operations next year as Treasury bill purchases supply a larger base of reserves. The calendar of repo operations starting in mid-January could reflect a gradual reduction in active repo operations. The manager indicated that some repos might be needed at least throughApril, when tax payments will sharply reduce reserve levels.As reserves remain ample, the manager noted that it maybecome appropriate at some point to implement a technical adjustment to the IOER rate and the offered rateon overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) agreements.Should conditions warrant this adjustment, the IOERrate could move closer to the middle of the target rangefor the federal funds rate, and the ON RRP rate couldbe realigned with the bottom of the target range.The manager also noted that the Federal Reserve Bankof New York communicated to its customers that theremuneration rate on the foreign repo pool will be revised to be generally equivalent to the overnight reverserepo rate. This action may reduce activity in the pool tosome extent and increase the level of reserves.With respect to conditions around year-end, the manager noted that forward measures of market pricing continued to indicate expectations of temporary upwardpressures on some secured rates. Money market ratesare often volatile around year-end, and Federal Reserveoperations are not intended to eliminate all year-endpressures but rather to ensure that reserve supply remains ample and to mitigate the risk that su
December 10–11, 2019 . A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 10,2019, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 11, 2019, at 9:00 a.m. 1. PRESENT: Jerome H. Powell, Chair
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