The Solar Resource

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The Solar ResourceLecture 2 – 9/13/2011MIT Fundamentals of Photovoltaics2.626/2.627 – Fall 2011Prof. Tonio Buonassisi

2.626/2.627 Census 2011Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Department Affiliation965222Self-Defined Expertise111111Degree in Progress201176 SM61033222214 PhD12UndergradGradASPBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Methods2927Class Project Interest2925246Hands-on labsField tripsGuest lecturesWorking closely Preparing tech A self-designedwith PVprospectus onprojectcompanyemerging PVBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning ObjectivesNatural SciencesEngineeringSocial )Materials (2)History(2)Policy (3)CurrentTech (6)Fundamentals (25)Manufacturing (3)EnvironmentalImpact(1)Jobs /Contacts(3)Systems/Grid conomy / Market(15)Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

The Solar ResourceLecture 2 – 9/13/2011MIT Fundamentals of Photovoltaics2.626/2.627 – Fall 2011Prof. Tonio BuonassisiBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length through atmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, and usethem to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency of solarresource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficient solarresource for a project (house, car, village, country,world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Before we begin Review of ReadingsCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with es-of-sunlight/declination-angleBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Before we begin Review of ReadingsCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with es-of-sunlight/solar-timeBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Before we begin a touch of HistoryWorking together, to understand the Sun16th-17th Century: Johannes KeplerRefines predictive astronomy with ellipticalorbital model, Astronomia Nova.10th-11th Century: Abu Rayhan al-BīrunīApplies cartographic methods to aidastronomical observation, Indica.3rd Century BCE: Aristarchus of SamosConfirms Yajnavalkya’s principles, estimatesinterstellar distances via heliocentric model.9th-8th Centuries BCE: YajnavalkyaSolar calendar, relative sizes of Earth, Sun,and Moon, possibly first heliocentric model.International collaboration essential to development of modern scientific models.Many scientists were well-traveled polyglots.Parallel astronomical developments in Far East (China), Mesoamerica.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length through atmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, and usethem to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency of solarresource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficient solarresource for a project (house, car, village, country,world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Solar Resource is VAST!Solar EnergyResource Base1.5x1018 kWh/year1.7x105 TWaveReferences:Wind Energy: C.L. Archer and M.Z. Jacobson, J.Geophys. Res. 110, D12110 (2005).Wind EnergyResource Base6x1014 kWh/year72 TWaveHuman Energy Use(mid- to late-century)4x1014 kWh/year50TWave(MIT) 2011Buonassisi

Solar Resource is VAST!Solar Energy Resource Base1.5x1018 kWh/year1.7x105 TWaveSolar Resource onEarth’s Surface5.5x1017 kWh/year3.6x104 TWaveReferences:Wind Energy: C.L. Archer and M.Z. Jacobson, J.Geophys. Res. 110, D12110 (2005).Wind EnergyResource Base6x1014 kWh/year72 TWaveHuman Energy Use(mid- to late-century)4x1014 kWh/year50TWave(MIT) 2011Buonassisi

Solar Resource is VAST!Solar Energy Resource Base3400 HECIn units of HEC(human energyconsumption)Solar Resource onEarth’s Surface720 HECReferences:Wind Energy: C.L. Archer and M.Z. Jacobson, J.Geophys. Res. 110, D12110 (2005).Wind EnergyResource Base1.4 HECHuman Energy Use(mid- to late-century)1 HECBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Quantifying Solar PowerSunRSunPo T 4Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Quantifying Solar PowerSunRSunTotal RadiativePower of Sun (fromStefan-Boltzmanlaw, T 5762 50K)Po T 4Power radiatedper unit area6.250x107W/m2Assumes Sun is a “black body.”Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Quantifying Solar Powernot to scale!EarthPEarthSunD (distance to Sun)RSunPo T 4PEarth2RSun 2 PoDBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Quantifying Solar Powernot to scale!EarthPEarthSunRsun 6.955x108 mD (distance to Sun)Po T 4PEarthAveragePEarth 1366W/m2 2RSun 2 PoDRatio ofSurface Areasof Spheres:4πR2.D 1.496x1011 mBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length throughatmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, and usethem to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency of solarresource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficient solarresource for a project (house, car, village, country,world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Atmospheric AbsorptionSource: NASA (public domain)Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTSIPCC’s assessment on the quantity of insolation (incoming solar radiation) reachingthe Earth’s d29AtmosphericProcesses45Absorbed104RadiationFrom theEarth88GreenhouseeffectHeat trapping in the atmosphere dominates the earth's energy balance. Some 30% of incoming solar energy is reflected(left), either from clouds and particles in the atmosphere or from the earth's surface; the remaining 70% is absorbed. Theabsorbed energy is reemitted at infrared wavelengths by the atmosphere (which is also heated by updrafts and cloudformation) and by the surface. Because most of the surface radiation is trapped by clouds and greenhouse gases andreturned to the earth, the surface is currently about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without the trapping.Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.Source: IPCC, from J. T. Houghton et al., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press,Cambridge, 1996), p. 58.; data from Kiehl and Trenberth (1996).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

AIR MASSThe Air Mass is the path length which light takes through the atmospherenormalized to the shortest possible path length (that is, when the sun isdirectly overhead). The Air Mass quantifies the reduction in the power of lightas it passes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by air and dust. The AirMass is defined as:Valid for small to medium AM1: Sun directly overheadAM1.5G: “Conventional”G (Global): Scattered and direct sunlightD (Direct): Direct sunlight onlyAM0: Just above atmosphere (spaceapplications)Source: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdromCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.22Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

SOLAR SPECTRUM6000K Black BodyVisible SpectrumCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.From: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdromStandard Solar Spectra Downloadable from: sisi (MIT) 2011

SOLAR SPECTRUM6000K Black BodyAMOCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.From: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdromStandard Solar Spectra Downloadable from: sisi (MIT) 2011

SOLAR SPECTRUM6000K Black BodyAMOAM1.5Sensitivity of Human Eye [a.u.]Qu ick Ti me a nd aTI FF (LZW) d ecom p re ssorare nee ded t o see t hi s p ic ture.Courtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.From: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdromSekuler R. and Blake, R., "Perception", Alfred A. Knopf Inc, New York, 1985.25Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

SOLAR SPECTRUMAM1.5 Global: Used for testing of Flat Panels (Integrated power intensity: 1000 W/m2)AM1.5 Direct: Used for testing of concentrators (900 W/m2)AM0: Outer space (1366 W/m2)Courtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.Source of data:The above charts, in Excel -spectraBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

SOLAR SPECTRUMCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with permission.From: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdromStandard Solar Spectra Downloadable from: si (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length through atmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, anduse them to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency of solarresource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficient solarresource for a project (house, car, village, country,world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

INSOLATIONInsolation: Incomming Solar RadiationTypically given in units of:Energy per Unit Area per Unit Time(kWh/m2/day)Helpful when designing or projecting PV systems: Expected yieldAffected by: latitude, local weather patterns, etc.29Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Global/Direct Insolation: Ground MeasurementspyranometerEquipment for solar irradiance measurements http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix visual.htmlBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Insolation: Satellite MeasurementsImage by NASA Earth Observatory. http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov Energy tab Solar InsolationBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Global Insolation Datahttp://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Global Insolation Datahttp://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length through atmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, and usethem to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency ofsolar resource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficient solarresource for a project (house, car, village, country,world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Seasonal Variation of InsolationCourtesy of PVCDROM. Used with ssisi (MIT) 2011

Seasonal & Diurnal Variations The trajectory of the sun relativeto a fixed ground position isimportant when mounting a fixedsolar array. Local weather patterns may limitexposure of sun at certain timesof day. When do you want more power?Summer vs. winter? Not only does the length of theday change, but so does theposition of the sun in the skythroughout the seasons. Important when consideringshading effects!Really awesome unmotions.htmlBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

21 m2.5 mBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Fixed vs. Tracking Systems800000Fixed6000001 axis5000002 axis4000003000002000001000000-149141924hour of dayTotal Annual SystemOutput7000000Total Output [kWh]total system ouput [kWh] As mentioned in previousslide, the sun movesthrough the sky. Panels thatare able to constantly moveand follow the sun, canincrease their output perday! Of course added cost ofbuilding a concentrator maynot make this idea a goodone rom PVWatts for BostonFixed1-axis2-axisBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Direct vs. Diffuse SunlightDiffuseDirect source unknown. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our CreativeCommons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/fairuse.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Local Weather Patterns: Long Time s/view.php?d1 CERES NETFLUX M&d2 MODAL2 M CLD non-europe.htmImage by PVGIS European Communities, 2001-2007.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Local Weather Patterns: Short Time ConstantPlease see lecture video or go to the links below to see the explanatory cartoon -EN/images/1070.gif Question: Why do many solar panels in the San Francisco BayArea point south or south-west, instead of south-east?Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

IntermittencyPlease see lecture video or go to the links below to see the explanatory cartoon -EN/images/1070.gif1. Short time constant (lesspredictable): Cloud cover.Relevant to predicting powersupply reliability.2. Long time constants (morepredictable): Diurnal & seasonalvariations. Relevant tocalculating total annual energyoutput.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Germany & U.S. : A quick comparisonPlease see lecture video for comparative insolation between Germany and the US.One out of every twoinstalled solar panelsis in Germany Yet we have much more sun!Conclusion: Solar resource ispart but not all of the equation.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Learning Objectives: Solar Resource Quantify available solar resource relative to humanenergy needs and other fuel sources. Recognize and plot air mass zero (AM0) and AM1.5spectra, and describe their physical origins. Use AMconvention to quantify path length through atmosphere. Describe how solar insolation maps are made, and usethem to estimate local solar resource. List the causes of variation and intermittency of solarresource and quantify their time constant andmagnitude. Estimate land area needed to provide sufficientsolar resource for a project (house, car, village,country, world).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Units 101 Basic Units Check: Assign Appropriate Units EnergyPowerCurrentVoltage Amps (A)Kilowatt Hours (kWh)Kilowatts (kW)Volts (V)Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Units 101 Basic Units Check: Assign Appropriate Units EnergyPowerCurrentVoltage Amps (A)Kilowatt Hours (kWh)Kilowatts (kW)Volts (V)Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Unit Check Current, voltage, power, and energy.– Example: Hairdrier vs. Fridge. Which is more likely to blow a fuse? Which is more likely to blow your budget?1.88 kWpeak 0.5 kWh/day0.044 kWave 1 kWh/dayPhoto courtesy of Niels van Eck on Flickr.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Why “Peak Power”? Why is “peak power” (kWp) useful?– Because it is a location (resource) neutral rating ofoutput power. A PV module will have the samekWp in Arizona or Alaska, although the kWave willbe very different! Useful spec when designingsystems.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Estimating System Output from Insolation MapsQ: Let’s say I have a 2.2 kWp photovoltaic array. How much energy will it produce in a year?A: Let’s say our location receives, on average, 4 kWh/m2/day from the Sun. The calculation isthen straightforward: 2200 W 4.0 kWh/m /day 2Energy Output p1000 Wp /m28.8 kWh/day 3200 kWh/yearBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Estimating System Output from Insolation MapsQ: Let’s say I have a 2.2 kWp photovoltaic array. How much energy will it produce in a year?A: Let’s say our location receives, on average, 4 kWh/m2/day from the Sun. The calculation isInsolation atthen straightforward:Systemsite ofinstallationsize 2200 W 4.0 kWh/m /day 2Energy Output p1000 Wp /m28.8 kWh/day 3200 kWh/yearAM 1.5GBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

More Accurate PredictionsPVWatts: Tapping into the NREL databasehttp://www.pvwatts.nrel.gov/SAM (Solar Advisor Model)https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/sam/Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Actual System OutputsActual system outputs may be significantly lower, due to suboptimal systemperformance, design, installation, shading losses, etc.:Source isi (MIT) 2011

Material Helpful forHomework ProblemsBuonassisi (MIT) 2011

Estimating Solar Land Area RequirementsHere’s the equation to use, when calculating the area of land needed to produce a certainamount of energy over a year, given a technology with a certain conversion efficiency.Land Requirements (m 2 ) Energy Burn Rate (kWh/yr) kWh Solar Resource 2 Conversion Efficiencym yr Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Estimating Solar Land Area RequirementsHere’s the equation to use, when calculating the area of land needed to produce a certainamount of energy over a year, given a technology with a certain conversion efficiency.How much energy (kWh)will be produced by thesolar system over thecourse of a year.How much land isneededLand Requirements (m 2 ) Energy Burn Rate (kWh/yr) kWh Solar Resource 2 Conversion Efficiencym yr How much energy fromthe Sun is available (readvalues off insolation mapsin previous slides for aparticular location. (Watchunits: days-1 vs. years-1)The ability of a giventechnology to convertsunlight into a usableform. NB: This is theconversion efficiency forthe entire system, not justthe device.Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Test CaseGiven:1. An energy burn rate of 4 TWave (3.5x1013 kWh/yr)(forward-projected U.S. energy consumption, including waste heat)2. An insolation value of 6 kWh/m2/day(typical year-average value for flat panel in Nevada; CPV 7 kWh/m2/day)3. System conversion efficiency of 12%(including all system losses)Using:Land Requirements (m 2 ) Energy Burn Rate (kWh/yr) kWh Solar Resource 2 Conversion Efficiency m yr 3.5 10kWh/yr 1.3 10 5 km2 kWh 2192 2 0.12 m yr 13Compare land requirement to power entire U.S. on today’s solar technology ( 130,000 km2),to total area of Nevada (286,367 km2).Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Test CaseNote that the land area requirement is a hyperbolic function of system conversionefficiency.Land Requirements (m 2 ) Energy Burn Rate (kWh/yr) kWh Solar Resource 2 Conversion Efficiency m yr Land Area Required(x 105 km2)NV 286,367 km23.532.521.510.50Flat PanelCPV0204060System Conversion Efficiency (%)Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

Estimating Solar Land Area Requirements6 Circles at 3 TWe Each 18 TWehttp://www.answers.com/topic/solar-power-1Image by Mlino76 on Wikipedia. License: CC-BY.61Buonassisi (MIT) 2011

MIT OpenCourseWarehttp://ocw.mit.edu2.627 / 2.626 Fundamentals of PhotovoltaicsFall 2013For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

Wind Energy Resource Base 1.4 HEC . Solar Energy Resource Base 3400 HEC. Solar Resource is VAST! Solar Resource on . Earth’s Surface. 720 HEC. References: Wind Energy: C.L. Archer and M.Z. Jacobson, J. Geophys. Res. 110, D12110 (2005). Human Energy Use (mid- to late-century) 1 HEC. In units of HEC (human energy consumption)

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