Global Market Forecast 2000 - 2019 - As777
GlobalMarket Forecast2000 - 2019July 20001
The Airbus Global Market Forecastcan also be found on the Internet athttp://www.airbus.com31707 Blagnac CedexFranceTelephone 33/(0)5 61 93 33 33 Airbus Industrie 2000All rights reservedAI/CP 390.0031/00The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the assumptions shown and areexpressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds forthese statements are not shown the Company will bepleased to explain the basis thereof.Printed in France
Contents1. Forecast highlights2. Key forecast parameters3. Introducing the GMF4. Demand for air travel5. Air transport operational evolution6. Fleet renewal7. World passenger fleet development8. Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries:- Regional jets- Mainline single-aisles- 200/250-seaters- Mid-sized & large twin-aisles- Very large aircraft9. Air cargo forecast4891215212327313233353641AppendicesA. Geographical regions & airlines analysedB. Route network developmentC. Passenger market segmentationD. Seat supply analysisE. Passenger traffic forecast methodology& resultsF. Aircraft replacement methodologyG. Detailed passenger fleet results:- Ten years: 2000 to 2009- Twenty years: 2000 to 2019H. Cargo forecast methodologyI. Cargo forecast results358616264667072747683
2000 Global Market Forecast1. Forecast highlightsDuring the last year since the issue of Airbus Industrie's previousGlobal Market Forecast (GMF), economic forecasters have becomesomewhat more cautious regarding the prospects for long-termeconomic growth. Nevertheless the results of the latest GMFconfirm Airbus' confidence in the continued strength of the civilaircraft market over the next twenty years, provided ways andmeans can be found to ease the problems caused by congestion.A significant role in the development of the world fleet will beplayed by a new generation of aircraft larger and more economicalthan anything flying today, and designed to be compatible withexisting airport infrastructure.Airbus' latest GMF covers the evolution year by year during theperiod 2000 - 2019 of the fleets of passenger and combi aircraftwith at least 70 seats, as well as dedicated freighters, operated bythe world's largest 228 airlines and 49 subsidiaries, together with187 additional cargo operators.In response to widespread demand, this summary documentpresents the results for the ten-year period to 2009 as well as for thefull twenty years covered by the forecast.The major predictions are that:l Driven mainly by continuing economic (GDP) growth andreduced fares, passenger traffic (revenue passenger-kilometres) willgrow at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent during the next tenyears. Growth will slow as markets mature, to average 4.6 per centthrough the following decade, resulting in twenty-year averageannual RPK growth of 4.9 per cent through 2019, when the airlineswill be generating 160 per cent more RPKs than today.l Cargo traffic will be stimulated by the development of globale-commerce and manufacturing trends, and freight tonne-kilometreswill grow more rapidly than passenger traffic. FTKs will increase atan average annual rate of 6.1 per cent through 2009, slowing to 5.3per cent annually during the following ten years. Twenty-yearannual FTK growth will average 5.7 per cent through 2019.l Modest increases in speed, load factor and utilisation will resultin improvements in productivity. The number of annual RPKsproduced by each seat installed in passenger aircraft will increasefrom about 1.66 million in 1999 to 1.8 million in 2009 and morethan 1.9 million in 2019. Similarly, the number of annual FTKsproduced by each tonne of capacity in freighters will increase fromjust under 1 million in 1999 to 1.14 million in 2009 and 1.27 millionin 2019.l Consequently, to accommodate growing demand, the number ofseats in passenger service will increase from 1.85 million today to4
Forecast highlights2.8 million in 2009 and nearly 4.2 million in 2019. At the same timethe capacity of the dedicated freighter fleet will grow from nearly69,000 tonnes to 113,000 tonnes in 2009 and 184,000 in 2019.l As passenger airlines increase frequencies on existing routes andoperate additional routes, the number of departures will increasemore rapidly than in the past. Annual departures will increase at anaverage 3.8 per cent per year through 2009. Limited infrastructurecapacity will constrain further growth in departures to just 2.7 percent per year through the next decade, resulting in a twenty-yearaverage annual growth in departures of 3.3 per cent through 2019,when the airlines will be making 90 per cent more daily departuresthan today.l Since the number of departures will be unable to keep pace withthe growth of traffic, the airlines will have to offer more seats perdeparture. From the current average of 158, seats per departure willreach 168 in 2009 and 190 in 2019; an overall increase of 32.l Smaller aircraft tend to make more flights than larger ones, so theaverage number of seats per aircraft will need to grow more rapidlythan seats per departure. From the current 179 seats, average aircraftsize will increase at an accelerating rate to 191 in 2009 and 217 in2019; an increase of 38. Thus, over the next twenty years, seats peraircraft will increase by 19 per cent more than seats per departure.l As a result, to provide the required increase in capacity, thenumber of passenger aircraft in service will increase from some10,350 in 1999 to 14,820 in 2009 and 19,170 in 2019.The world jetliner fleet will grow by nearly11,000 aircraftWorld fleet change 2000 - 2019 (2000 - 2009 in engerFreighterFleet Converted Retired4,601(2,408)1,153(703)By 2009, some 4,520 of the passenger aircraft currently in servicewill have been replaced by their current operators as they seek to5
2000 Global Market Forecastmaintain a youthful fleet. Of these, 1,640 will be recycled back intothe world fleet, leaving a need for delivery through 2009 of a totalof about 7,340 new passenger aircraft.l During the following ten years another 4,500 aircraft will bereplaced, of which 1,530 will be recycled, leaving a need foranother 7,320 new aircraft for growth and fleet renewal. So over thetwenty years through 2019 the airlines will take delivery of a totalof about 14,660 new passenger aircraft. And of the 9,000 aircraftreplaced during this period, almost 2,400 will be converted tofreighters and enter dedicated cargo operations.Nearly 15,400 new aircraft will be delivered .2000 - 20092000 - 201970- & 85-seater regional jets437*692*Mainline single-aisle types like theAirbus A318, A319, A320 and A3214,3307,570200/250-seaters like the AirbusA300, A310 and smaller model A330sLarger twin-aisles like the AirbusA330-300 and A340Very large and economical aircraftlike the Airbus ,60815,364Total passenger aircraftFreightersPassenger freighter aircraft* many more of these aircraft will be needed by smallerairlines and current turboprop operators not covered by the GMFlThe average delivery rate of 733 new passenger aircraft per yearprojected through the first ten years of the forecast will be sustainedthrough the second decade in terms of units. However theprogressive trend towards larger aircraft means that the dollar valueof deliveries in the second decade will be greater.l The biggest share (35 per cent) of deliveries of passenger aircraftwill go to airlines in North America. European airlines will take 30per cent, and Asia-Pacific airlines 24 per cent, leaving just 11 percent for airlines in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.l Higher growth in air travel markets outside the USA means thatthe percentage of the world passenger fleet operated by airlinesbased in North America will decline from its current 43 per cent to36 per cent in 2019, while the share of airlines in Europe and AsiaPacific rises. In terms of capacity, the most spectacular gain will bemade by the Asia-Pacific airlines, whose share of world seats willgrow from 24 to 29 per cent.6
Forecast highlightslThe world freighter fleet will grow from 1,510 aircraft with anaverage capacity of 45.5 tonnes in 1999 to 2,240 aircraft with anaverage capacity of 50.5 tonnes in 2009. During this period some700 freighters, having reached the end of their economic lives, willbe retired, creating the need for acquisition of a total of 1,440aircraft, including 1,170 passenger-to-freighter conversions and 270new aircraft.l From 2009 to 2019 the freighter fleet will grow to 3,450 aircraftwith an average capacity of 53.3 tonnes, while another 450 oldaircraft will be retired. Of the 1,650 aircraft delivered, 1,220 will beconversions and 430 new freighters. Thus a total of some 700 newdedicated freighters will be delivered during the next twenty years.l The new 7,610 passenger and cargo aircraft delivered during thenext ten years will be worth approximately 560 billion (2000catalogue prices) and the 7,750 aircraft delivered during thefollowing decade will be worth another 750 billion, giving a totaltwenty-year business volume of 1.31 trillion. a business worth 1.3 trillion2000 61.496.0100105.077.45008.45.270&852 0 0 0 - 20192 0 0 0 - 20091%1%34.0100 to 175210 & 250300, 350 &400 400freighter25%32%21%24%19%29%22%14%7%6%7
2000 Global Market Forecast2. Key forecast parametersThe numbers of aircraft and seats needed at any point in time togenerate the forecast number of revenue passenger-kilometres at theprojected levels of service frequency will flow directly from theassumptions made regarding the evolution of such concreteoperational parameters as speed, aircraft utilisation, load factor andaverage flight distance.To facilitate understanding of the GMF results and comparison withother forecasts, the table below presents the actual and forecastvalues at the beginning, middle and end of the twenty-year forecastperiod of eight key parameters, from which the correspondingvalues of a range of other operational parameters (such as speed)can be easily derived.These values, and the relationships between them, also provide auseful test of reasonableness of the forecast's results.Key forecast parametersPassenger aircraft onlyEnd 1999End 2009End 2019World RPKs (billion)3,080.15,100.27,985.7World ASKs (billion)4,378.57,076.910,864.2Number of aircraft10,34914,81519,173Number of installed seats1,852,6412,834,3324,168,701Number of departures (000)16,156.023,464.630,738.8Seats per departure158168190Average flight distance (km)1,3701,4141,444Block hours per aircraft per year3,5023,6363,736Each of these numbers is a result, not an input !8
3. Introducing the GMFThe millennial edition of Airbus Industrie's annual GMF predictsthe numbers of passenger and combi aircraft with at least 70 seats,as well as dedicated freighters, that will be required during thetwenty years from 2000 to 2019 to accommodate traffic growth andto allow fleet renewal by a total of 228 individual passenger airlinesplus 49 subsidiaries, outside the Commonwealth of IndependentStates, which altogether account for 98 per cent of scheduledpassenger operations, as well as 187 additional cargo carriers. Theairlines studied, grouped into seven consolidated geographicalregions, as well as the criteria for inclusion in the GMF, are listed inAppendix A.The GMF covers 228 passenger airlines .North America29 airlines4,418 aircraftEurope78 airlines2,789 aircraftLatin America36 airlines687 aircraftAfrica23 airlines273 aircraftP.R. China19 airlines491 aircraftMiddle East11 airlines261 aircraftAsia-Pacific32 airlines1,430 aircraft and 187 freighter operatorsNorth America47 operators1,055 freightersEurope37 operators168 freightersLatin America31 operators75 freightersAfrica34 operators63 freighters9Middle East15 operators37 freightersP.R. China4 operators15 freightersAsia-Pacific19 operators97 freighters
2000 Global Market ForecastAirbus recognises the great potential that exists for growth inpassenger and cargo traffic carried by airlines based in theCommonwealth of Independent States. Currently, however, the lackof a consistent statistical base and reliable economic projectionsdoes not allow the application to these airlines of the forecastingtechniques used in the GMF. Consequently Airbus makes a separateforecast of the evolution of the fleets of the airlines in the CIS,based on plausible assumptions, which is contained in a separatedocument.The GMF is a “bottom-up” forecast, projecting the year-by-yearevolution of passenger traffic, flight frequencies and aircraftcapacity on a total of 10,013 individual airport-pair route sectorslinking 1,896 airports in 82 distinct domestic and international submarkets. This avoids the errors inherent in “top-down” forecastsderived from aggregations of averages.The route-by-route projections are then consolidated so as toforecast the evolution of the individual fleets of each of the airlines,and then further consolidated into the regional fleet forecasts shownin this summary document. Appendix B explains how the GMFsimulates the impact of new route development.Demand is forecast in 19 categoriesPassenger aircraftCargo aircraftQ 70 & 85-seaters *Q 100,125,150 & 175-seatersQ 30 tonnes capacityQ 30 to 50 tonnes capacityQ 210 & 250-seatersQ 300, 350 & 400-seatersQ 500, 600, 800Q 50 to 80 tonnes capacityQ 80 tonnes capacity& 1000-seaters* the GMF does not predict total demand for aircraft in this category,because many more will be needed by smaller airlines and currentnon-jet operatorsUnlike many forecasts, the GMF uses a very rigorous method ofproduct segmentation into 15 “neutral” seating categories.Depending on its particular seating layout, any individual passengeraircraft will fall between two categories and contribute seats toeach. This ensures that at any time the number of aircraft (andhence flight frequencies) and seats in each individual airline fleetmatch exactly the forecast demand. Appendix C describes this10
Introducing the GMFapproach in more detail, while Appendix D illustrates theapplication of the GMF methodology to a typical route. Cargoaircraft are segmented into four capacity categories.The passenger traffic forecast methodology and results aredescribed in Appendix E.The GMF is a pure demand forecast. The extent to which anyavailable aircraft type will satisfy the predicted future demand forseats (or - for freighters - tonnes of lift) at projected levels offrequency will depend largely on its competitiveness, and a versatilepassenger aircraft type, in service in a wide variety of seatinglayouts, will contribute seats to a number of different “neutral” seatcategories.Moreover, the GMF recognises that many airlines replace passengeraircraft in their fleets long before the aircraft are converted tofreighters or definitively withdrawn from airline service. Aproportion of these aircraft are then “recycled” back into the fleetsof other airlines through the used aircraft or operating lease markets.At the level of individual airline fleets, the GMF identifies thecorresponding opportunities to introduce new aircraft before theexisting aircraft reach the end of their economic lives. Thissummary shows the extent to which overall forecast demand foraircraft deliveries will be satisfied by used aircraft, as described inAppendix F.The detailed results of the GMF passenger fleet forecast through2009 and 2019 are presented in Appendix G.A significant proportion of airfreight continues to be transported bydedicated freighters on a non-scheduled basis, rendering theavailable flight schedule databases non-comprehensive. Until acomprehensive database becomes available, the GMF freighteranalysis will continue to deduce pertinent information about thenature of the markets served and the type of service offered fromavailable aircraft-by-aircraft operational data.The freighter and passenger aircraft forecasts are presentedseparately due to the inevitable differences between themethodologies. However the two forecasts are to some extentinterdependent because passenger aircraft operations play a crucialrole in global airfreight by making available significant freightcapacity in the belly-holds of passenger and combi aircraft, and byproviding significant dedicated freighter lift capacity throughpassenger-to-freighter conversions.The freighter forecast methodology and results are shown inAppendices H and I.11
2000 Global Market Forecast4. Demand for air travelDemand for air travel will continue to be driven primarily byeconomic (GDP) growth, though as markets mature demand tendsto become more sensitive to changes in real fares. Initially, when airtravel can be afforded by only a tiny percentage of the population,the fare level is largely irrelevant and the convenience of thejourney paramount. But as air travel becomes generally affordable,more and more passengers - paying for their own tickets - will, ifnecessary, go to considerable inconvenience if this enables them toobtain a cheaper fare.To maintain the growth in their business, airlines will have to findways to continue to reduce fares in real terms. Airbus forecasterspredict that in future the availability of still more efficient andproductive aircraft will make a major contribution to this.Airbus anticipates that high-speed rail systems will continue to takea share of some highly-travelled short-haul travel markets, and thisis reflected in the GMF's growth rate projections. However theenormous investment required, together with environmentalconcerns, will severely limit the proliferation of such systems.Further, Airbus predicts that advanced telecommunications willhave an overall neutral impact on demand for air travel, any directsubstitution being counterbalanced by the stimulus they will provideto economic growth.Airbus does not expect that a new-generation supersonic aircraftwill achieve any significant penetration of the market during thenext twenty years. It also assumes that during this period thedevelopment of subsonic air transport will not be significantlyAir travel will continue to grow stronglyWorld annual traffic - trillion RPK98(4.6% p.a.)ICAO traffic history76(5.2% p.a.)54(4.5% p.a.)3Airbus projection 4.88 % per annum(6.9% p.a.)2(11.2% p.a.)1019691979198919992009122019
Demand for air travelaffected by a lack of availability of conventional hydrocarbon fuels,although their increasing price as well as intensifying environmentalpressures will continue to provide strong incentives to improve fuelefficiency.Overall, Airbus predicts that during the ten years to 2009 scheduledrevenue passenger-kilometres (RPKs) carried by the GMF airlineswill grow at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent, declining to anaverage annual rate of 4.6 per cent as markets progressively matureduring the following decade. This results in a forecast average RPKgrowth rate of 4.9 per cent per year through 2019. Thus during thenext twenty years world annual RPKs will grow to eight trillioncompared with the current level of three trillion.Compared with the 1999 GMF, Airbus forecasters have increasedtheir estimate of annual traffic growth for the first decade by 0.1percentage points, and reduced that for the following ten years by0.3 percentage points. This reflects a change, following the fasterthan-expected recovery of the economies of several Asian nations,in the long-term outlook of the independent economic forecastsused by Airbus as an input to its forecasting models. The result is amodest reduction by one-tenth of a percentage point of the averageannual growth in RPKs projected over the next twenty years.Travel growth will vary widely betweendifferent marketsAverage annual growth rate (% p.a.)1999 - 20199876Domestic EuropeAfrica - EuropeIntra EuropeAsia - USA1Europe - USA2Dom . USA33.9%2.9%2.4%Intra AsiaDomestic P.R.
200/250-seaters like the Airbus A300, A310 and smaller model A330s 1,127 3,046 Larger twin-aisles like the Airbus A330-300 and A340 1,083 2,118 Very large and economical aircraft like the Airbus A3XX 360 1,235 Mainline single-aisle types like the Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 4,330 7,570 70- & 85-seater regional jets 437* 692* 2000 - 2009 .
Climate/Weather Linkage Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Global Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System* Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments
Creating a Global Forecast Series 55 Creating a Departmental Forecast Series 56 Creating a Hybrid Forecast Series 58 Setting Up Customer Adaptive Forecasting 58 About Creating a Partner Forecast Series 59 Deactivating Auto-Forecast 59 About Configuring Revenue and Forecast Spreadsheets 60 Modifying Spreadsheet Applets for Forecasting 61
Brazil 45.0m Total 276.7m Key Events (2012–2022) Level of Impact . Table 11: Sinemet SWOT Analysis, 2014 .43. Sinemet (Parkinson’s Disease) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 SINEMET (PARKINSON’S DISEASE) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 . Sinemet (Parkinson’s Disease) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 .
The aim of IMTS is to record all goods which add to or subtract from the stock of material resources of a country by entering (imports) or leaving (exports) its economic territory. . KH 2015 - 2019 2015 - 2019 2015 - 2019 2015 - 2019 2010 - 2019 2010 - 2019 2010 - 2019 2010 - 2019 2000 - 2019 2000 - 2019 2000 - 2019 2000 - 2019 .
Sep 27, 2019 · ISO’s long -term load forecast is a 10-year projection of . gross and net load . for states and New England region ‒Annual gross and net energy ‒Seasonal gross and net peak demand (50/50 and 90/10) Gross peak demand forecast is probabilistic in nature ‒Weekly load forecast distributions are developed for each year of forecast .
La Crosse Technology Page 1 Wireless Forecast Station Model C86371 Instruction Manual Introduction The Wireless Forecast Station with 12 Hour Color Forecast and Snooze Alarm features radio-controlled time, weather forecast, indoor and outdoor temperature/humidity as well as heat index and dew point, on
of periods to forecast in the PROC FORECAST statement, then list the variables to forecast in a VAR statement. For example, suppose you have monthly data on the sales of some product, in a data set, named PAST, as shown in Figure 12.1, and you want to forecast sales for the next 10 months. Obs date sa
related weather information in the Enroute area Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) Mosaic (1km resolution) VIL Forecast Contours (Std. Mode) VIL 2-hr. Forecast VIL Forecast Contours (Winter Mode) Echo Tops Mosaic (1 km resolution) Echo Tops Forecast Contours Echo Tops 2-hr. Forecast
