U.S. International Trade Commission

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U.S. International Trade CommissionCOMMISSIONERSStephen Koplan, ChairmanDeanna Tanner Okun, Vice ChairmanJennifer A. HillmanCharlotte R. LaneDaniel R. PearsonShara L. AranoffRobert A. RogowskyDirector of OperationsKaren Laney-CummingsDirector of IndustriesAddress all communications toSecretary to the CommissionUnited States International Trade CommissionWashington, DC 20436

U.S. International Trade CommissionWashington, DC 20436www.usitc.govProbable Effect of Certain Modifications tothe North American Free Trade AgreementRules of OriginFinal Report on Investigation No. NAFTA-103-012Publication 3802September 2005

This report was principally prepared byCo--Project LeadersJudith--Anne Websterjudith--anne.webster@usitc.gov; (202) 205--3489Linda Whitelinda.white@usitc.gov; (202) 205--3427Office of IndustriesGail Burns, Robert Carr, John Cutchin, Alfred Dennis, Vincent DeSapio, Quenna Fan, Fred Forstall,Dennis Fravel, John Kitzmiller, Harry Lenchitz, Christopher Mapes, Douglas Newman, Rose Steller,Ralph Watkins, Judith--Anne Webster, Linda White, and Falan YinugOffice of EconomicsJames FetzerReviewersLaura Polly, Office of IndustriesJanis Summers, Office of Tariff Affairs and Trade AgreementsAssisted by:Phyllis Boone, Monica Reed, and Wanda Tolson, Office of IndustriesUnder the direction of:Michael Anderson, ChiefAdvanced Technology and Machinery Division

AbstractThis investigation provides the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (Commission) adviceon the probable effect of certain proposed modifications to the rules of origin contained inthe North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as requested by the office of the U.S.Trade Representative (USTR). The Commission’s advice is based on an impact assessmentof whether a proposed rule modification would likely increase or decrease preferential tradeflows of U.S. exports and imports in the NAFTA markets, and the resulting effect on totalU.S. imports, exports, and production.The Commission assessed each specific proposed modification to determine the probableeffect on U.S. trade and on U.S. industries. The Commission first compared the rulesincorporating the proposed modifications with the current rules using the availableinformation to ascertain any changes in the application of the NAFTA rules of origin. If suchchanges were identified, the Commission then used qualitative and quantitative analyses todetermine the probable effect of the modifications on the basis of the current USTR text. TheCommission took into consideration production and sourcing patterns of the affectedproducts in the NAFTA countries, product input sourcing patterns, overall levels ofproduction and trade, as well as NAFTA and normal trade relations (NTR) duty rates. Incases where it was determined that the rule modification could result in a greater thannegligible effect on U.S. industry, a partial equilibrium economic model was used to estimatethe change in the NAFTA trade value for the affected products covered by the rulemodification. Please refer to Chapter 2 for a detailed discussion of the Commission’sanalysis for determining NAFTA rules of origin probable effects.The Commission reviewed proposed rules for 37 product groups and determined that 14have no substantive change in the application of the rules of origin, resulting in no probableeffect on total U.S. trade and production. For 2 groups, the effect could not be determinedbecause of the wording of the modifications and the existing rule. For the remaining 21, theCommission determined that, while there were substantive changes in the application of therules of origin, these changes resulted in a negligible effect on total U.S. trade andproduction. A negligible determination means that the value of U.S. trade or U.S. productionfor the affected product will likely change by less than 6 percent.i

CONTENTSPageAbstract.Chapter 1: Introductioni.1-1Scope.Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-11-11-2Chapter 2: NAFTA Rules of Origin Probable EffectAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-1Chapter 3: Advice on the Probable Effect of CertainProposed Modifications to the Rules of OriginContained in the North American Free TradeAgreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3-1Cocoa and cocoa preparations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cranberry juice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Ores, slag, and ash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Leather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cork and articles of cork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Prepared feathers and down and articles made of feathers or of down; artificial flowers;articles of human hair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Glass and glassware . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Copper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Nickel and articles thereof . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Zinc and articles thereof . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other base metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Televisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Information technology agreement goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83-223-29AppendicesA.B.C.D.E.Request letter from the USTR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Federal Register notice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Organizations contacted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Positions of interested parties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Compilation of applicable NAFTA tariff rates and NTR tariff rates for theUnited States, Canada, and Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iiiA-1B-1C-1D-1E-1

09/05ITC READER SATISFACTION SURVEYProbable Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American FreeTrade Agreement Rules of OriginThe U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is interested in your voluntary comments (burden less than 10 minutes) to help assess the value and quality of our reports, and to assistin improving future products. Please return the survey by facsimile (202-205-2018) or by mail tothe USITC, or visit the USITC Internet home page(http://reportweb.usitc.gov/reader survey/readersurvey.html) to electronically submit a Web version ofthe survey.(Please print; responses below not for attribution):Your name and title:Organization (if applicable):Which format is most useful to you?- CD-ROM- Hardcopy- USITC Internet siteCircle your assessment of each factor below: SA strongly agree, A agree, N no opinion,D disagree, or SD strongly disagree.Value of this report:" Statistical data are useful . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." Other non-numerical facts are useful . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." Analysis augments statistical data/other facts . . . . . . . . . . . ." Relevant topic(s)/subject matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." Primary or leading source of information on this subject . .Quality of this report:" Clearly written . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." Key issues are addressed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." Charts and graphs aid understanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ." References cite pertinent sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NNDDDDSDSDSDSDOther preferred source of information on this subject:Specify chapters, sections, or topics in the report that are most useful:Identify any type of additional information that should have been included in the report:Suggestions for improving the report:Please update your mailing and electronic addresses below (voluntary)Mailing address:City, state, and zip code:E-mail address:OMB No.: 3117--0188

FOLDUNITED STATESINTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSIONWASHINGTON, DC 20436NO POSTAGENECESSARYIF MAILEDIN THEUNITED STATESOFFICIAL BUSINESSPENALTY FOR PRIVATE, USE 300BUSINESS REPLY MAILFIRST CLASSPERMIT NO. 12840WASHINGTON, DCPOSTAGE WILL BE PAID BY ADDRESSEEU.S INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION500 E STREET, SW.WASHINGTON, DC 20277--2840ATTN:OFFICE OF INDUSTRIESProbable Effect of Certain Modifications to theNorth American Free Trade Agreement Rulesof Origin

CHAPTER 1IntroductionScopeFollowing receipt of a request on May 23, 2005, from the United States Trade Representative(USTR) under authority delegated by the President and pursuant to section 103 of the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Implementation Act (19 U.S.C. 3313),1 the U.S.International Trade Commission (Commission) instituted investigation No. NAFTA-103012, Probable Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade AgreementRules of Origin. As noted in USTR’s request letter, U.S. negotiators reached agreement inprinciple with representatives of the Governments of Canada and Mexico concerningproposed modifications to the rules of origin for several product groups covered in Annexes401 and 403. The proposed rule changes, if implemented, would apply only to U.S. importsfrom and exports to those NAFTA parties in agreement with the rule changes.ApproachIn response to the USTR request for probable effect advice of the proposed modificationsto the NAFTA rules of origin, the Commission presents its advice in the form of productdigests. The HTS numbers of the digests are the Harmonized Tariff Schedule numbers underwhich the applicable products are classified. The existing rules for these products were takenfrom the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (2005) and supplement 1, GeneralNote 12 North American Free Trade Agreement, pp. GNp. 31-GNp. 168.2 The proposed ruleswere provided by the USTR in its request letter dated May 23, 2005, and revision dated June16, 2005. The probable effect advice is the result of the Commission’s analysis of theproposed rule modification on U.S. trade and U.S. industries. The modification statementdescribes changes in the application of the NAFTA rules of origin as a result of the proposedrule compared with the existing rule, and the effect statement describes the Commission’sassessment of the probable effect of the proposed rule on U.S. trade and U.S. industriesresulting from changes to the rules of origin. To assist in the preparation of its probableeffect advice, the Commission sought information and views of interested parties bothofficially through its Federal Register notice announcing this investigation and informallyby directly contacting known industry representatives. The Normal Trade Relations (NTR)and the NAFTA tariff rates cited in the effect statements were taken from The HarmonizedTariff Schedule of the United States (2005); Canada’s Schedule to the Customs Tariff,1Section 202(q) of the North American Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act (the Act)authorizes the President, subject to the consultation and layover requirements of section 103 of theAct, to proclaim such modifications to the rules of origin as are necessary to implement anagreement with one or more of the NAFTA countries pursuant to paragraph 2 of section 7 ofAnnex 300-B of the Agreement. One of the requirements set out in section 103 of the Act is thatthe President obtain advice from the United States International Trade Commission.2Found at http://www.usitc.gov/tata/hts/index.htm, retrieved June 5, 2005.1-1

effective January 1, 2005;3 and Mexico’s Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importacion yExportacion (The Law of General Tariffs on Imports and Exports) for 2004.4OrganizationA detailed explanation of the Commission’s analysis for determining the probable effect ofthe proposed modifications of rules of origin on U.S. trade and U.S. industry is presented inChapter 2. Included in this chapter is a description of the partial equilibrium economic modeland the kind of information needed to estimate the change in the NAFTA trade value forthose cases where it is determined that the rule modification could result in greater thannegligible effect on U.S. trade and U.S. industry. Chapter 2 also provides a definition of thecoding scheme used in Chapter 3 to indicate the probable effect on the level of U.S. imports,exports, and production. The Commission’s advice is presented in Chapter 3. Appendix Apresents the USTR request letter, revision, and complete list of proposed NAFTA rules oforigin modifications for which the Commission was to provide probable effect advice;appendix B presents the Commission’s Federal Register notice announcing theCommission’s institution of this investigation and request for written submissions; appendixC presents the list of organizations the Commission contacted directly to assist in thepreparation of its advice; appendix D presents a summary of positions of interested partieswritten submissions; and appendix E presents a compilation of applicable NAFTA and NTRtariff rates for each NAFTA member party.3Canada’s Schedule to the Customs Tariff, found at riff2005/tablewithamendments-e.html, retrieved June 5, 2005.4Mexico’s Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importacion y Exportacion, found athttp://www.economia-snci.gob.mx/, retrieved June 6, 2005. Since June 6, 2005, the Government ofMexico posted an update to the tariff information, which were actualized as of July 8, 2005 andgenerally resulted in a 3 percentage point decrease. See the note at the end of Appendix E for a listof exceptions. This decrease in the Mexican NTR rates are likely to not have affected theCommission’s probable effect finding.1-2

CHAPTER 2NAFTA Rules of Origin Probable EffectAnalysisThe Commission’s probable effect analysis involves an impact assessment of whether aproposed rule modification would likely increase or decrease preferential trade flows of U.S.exports and imports in the NAFTA markets as compared with the current NAFTA rules oforigin, and the effect of the change on total U.S. imports, exports, and production. Theanalysis consists of two steps–first, a comparison of the rule containing the proposedmodification with the current rule to ascertain if any substantive change in the terms orapplication of the NAFTA rules of origin will occur for any of the products covered by therule, and second, if such a change is identified, a determination of the likely economic effectof the rule modification.Each substantive rule modification is analyzed to determine if the modification wouldliberalize or restrict NAFTA eligibility as compared with the current rules.1 If a proposedmodification liberalizes NAFTA eligibility for the affected products (making it easier forNAFTA-origin status to be granted), the amount of NAFTA trade may either increase ordecrease depending on the response to the expanded sourcing options resulting from themodification.2For those modifications determined to have no substantive change in the legal standardutilized in the application of the rules of origin, the effect on total U.S. trade and industryis listed as "None." For those modifications determined to result in substantive changes inthe coverage of individual rules of origin, further analysis is attempted to identify and takeinto consideration production and sourcing patterns of the affected products in the NAFTAcountries, product input sourcing patterns, overall levels of production and trade, andNAFTA and normal trade relations (NTR) duty rates to the extent possible. If it wasdetermined that the rule modification would likely result in negligible trade and productionvalue changes, the effect on total U.S. trade and production is listed as "Negligible."3For those rule modifications for which it is determined that a substantive change in the termsor application of the rules of origin could produce a greater than negligible effect on U.S.trade and production, further analysis is conducted using a partial equilibrium model toestimate the change in the NAFTA trade value for the affected products covered by themodification. To estimate the change in trade value, this model uses: (1) the difference in theNAFTA and non-NAFTA tariff rates; (2) an elasticity of substitution, an aggregate demandelasticity, and price elasticities of supply for domestic shipments and for imports; and (3) the1Restrictions resulting from the proposed rule modifications are rare but in such cases, theCommission’s analysis is essentially the same as for a liberalizing effect.2It is difficult to predict the extent of liberalization or restriction that would occur with asubstantive modification. In the analysis for a liberalization situation, it is assumed that theproposed rule modification would result in all trade from the two partners entering under NAFTApreferential tariff rates.3Negligible is used for expected trade or production value changes of less than 6 percent. Seecoding scheme definition on the following page.2-1

value of preferential or non-preferential trade in the NAFTA markets for the affectedproducts.4 The values used for the elasticities were designed to estimate the extreme effectsof the proposed modification in a base case analysis.5 If this analysis resulted in a negligibleeffect on U.S. production for the affected products (i.e., a change in production of less than6 percent), the analysis was concluded. If significant or greater effects were determined, thenthe elasticities were further researched and modified, if appropriate, to more closely reflectindustry conditions.6Tariff rates in effect on January 1, 2005 were used for Canada and the United States. ForMexico, 2004 tariff rates were used.7 Preferential imports are eligible for the NAFTA tariffrate in each NAFTA market, which is free in most cases.8 The non-NAFTA rate is assumedto be each country’s external or NTR rate.9The effect on U.S. industry is determined b

This investigation provides th e U.S. International Trade Commission’s (Commission) advice on the probable effect of certain proposed modifications to the rules of origin contained in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NA FTA) as requested by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).

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