World Fertilizer Trends And Outlook To 2022
Worldfertilizertrendsandoutlookto2022
Worldfertilizertrendsandoutlookto2022FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSRome, 2019
Required citation:FAO. 2019. World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022. Rome.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply theexpression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companiesor products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these havebeen endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect theviews or policies of FAO.ISBN 978-92-5-131894-2 FAO, 2019Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; igo/legalcode).Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercialpurposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestionthat FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted.If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If atranslation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation:“This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shallbe the authoritative edition.”Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation andarbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicablemediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the ArbitrationRules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, suchas tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse andfor obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of anythird-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user.Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org. Requests for commercial use shouldbe submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should besubmitted to: copyright@fao.org.
ContentsFigures. ivTables. ivPREFACEvTECHNICAL NOTES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND AND BALANCESviTHE WORLD FERTILIZER OUTLOOK1SUPPLY. 2DEMAND . 4SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES . 7ANNEXES1. World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance 2016-2022(thousand tonnes N). 112. World and regional phosphorus supply, demand and balance 2016-2022(thousand tonnes P2O5). 153. World and regional potassium supply, demand and balance 2016-2022(thousand tonnes K2O). 204. Regional classification of countries and territories. 24iii
FiguresFigure 1. World capacity for producing (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acidand (c) potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 2Figure 2. World supply of (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acid and(c) potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 3Figure 3. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and (c) potassium,for fertilizer use, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 5Figure 4. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus (phosphoric acid based)and (c) potassium, for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 6Figure 5. Potential world balance of (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and(c) potassium, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 8Figure 6. Potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in 2022,by region (thousand tonnes). 9TablesTable 1.World capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 2Table 2.World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2016-2022(thousand tonnes). 3Table 3.World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium forfertilizer use, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 5Table 4.World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus (phosphoric acid based)and potassium for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 6Table 5.Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes). 8iv
PrefaceThe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) periodicallyhosts the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group meeting, to review the medium-termsupply and demand prospects for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizersand provide world and regional forecasts. The latest meeting of the Expert Grouptook place on 10-12 September 2018 in Rome, Italy, to prepare forecasts for theperiod 2017-2022. The results of this meeting are presented in this report.The Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group currently comprises representatives of:»» The Fertiliser Association of India (FAI)»» Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)»» International Fertilizer Association (IFA)»» International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC)»» The Fertilizer Institute (TFI)The contributions made by the members of the Fertilizer Outlook ExpertGroup are gratefully acknowledged.Francesco Tubiello, Javier Montero-Serrano and Fabio Mozillo, from theFAO Statistics Division, provided support by preparing the FAO historicalstatistics from FAOSTAT and providing assistance during the meeting. Thisfinal report was prepared by Debra Turner, FAO Agricultural Officer, underthe supervision of Caterina Batello, former FAO Senior Agricultural Officer,and Hans Dreyer, Director of FAO Plant Production and Protection Division,had the overall direction of this publication. Final editing of the document wasundertaken by Teodardo Calles, FAO Agricultural Officer.The forecast data presented in this report are based on the expert views ofthe different organizations participating in the 2018 Fertilizer Outlook ExpertGroup meeting. They are not necessarily fully consistent with the FAO historicalstatistics available in FAOSTAT. The fertilizers data by nutrient available inFAOSTAT can be accessed at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RFN andcompared with the data for 2016 considered in this report as starting point forthe world and regional forecasts.v
Technical notes on supply, demand andbalancesIn this report, fertilizers data are provided with respect to the three primaryplant nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Data relatedto each of these nutrients are all expressed in the same units, as follows:»» Nitrogen and ammonia: expressed as N»» Phosphorus and phosphoric acid: expressed as P2O5»» Potassium and potash: expressed as K2OThe fertilizer demand and supply data refer to calendar years. Definitions ofthe terms used:Capacity: nameplate capacity.Supply: effective capacity, representing the maximum achievable production. Supplyis computed from the “nameplate capacity” (theoretical capacity), multiplied by theoperating rate projected for the period under consideration. For new plants, a rampup of the operating rates was established for the first 3 years of operation. Nameplatecapacity operating rates and demand for fertilizers vary from year to year. In the case ofphosphorus, the supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H3PO4).Demand: it can be split into fertilizer use and other uses.Demand for fertilizer use is the use of fertilizer at a given point in time.In the case of phosphorus, fertilizer demand is subdivided in this report intophosphoric acid based fertilizer demand and non-phosphoric acid fertilizerdemand. The non-phosphoric acid fertilizer demand includes phosphorus in singlesuper phosphate, rock phosphate, etc.Demand for other uses refers to consumption for non-fertilizer use, losses andunallocated demand. In this report it refers to all forms of demand excludingfertilizer and includes the use of nutrients (N, P or K) that are recovered as byproduct from industrial processes and then used as fertilizer.Potential balance: is the difference between supply and total demand (fertilizerdemand plus other uses demand). Regional balance is a medium-term indicator ofpotential changes in fertilizer nutrient demand and supply in the region.vi
Theworldfertilizeroutlook1
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022SUPPLYForecasts of world capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid andpotash, up to 2022, are provided in table 1 (and figure 1). Forecasts of worldsupply are provided in table 2 (and figure 2). Regional and sub-regionalforecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.Table 1. World capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)Year2016201720182019202020212022180 496 184 558 186 974 189 523 187 354 188 908 190 397Ammonia, as NPhosphoric acid,as P2O557 29560 22461 46462 35762 61263 55263 702Potash, as K2O54 63858 45561 95162 05563 46763 51364 553Total (N P2O5 K2O)292 429 303 237 310 389 313 935 313 433 315 973 318 652Figure 1. World capacity for producing (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acid and(c) potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)(a) Ammonia, as N200 000190 000180 000170 000160 000150 92020202120222023(b) Phosphoric acid, as P2O580 00070 00060 00050 00040 00030 000220152016
The world fe rtilize r outlook(c) Potash, as K2O80 00070 00060 00050 00040 00030 000201520162017201820192020202120222023Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2016-2022(thousand tonnes)Year2016201720182019202020212022153 646 155 253 157 819 161 504 160 492 161 572 163 219Ammonia, as NPhosphoric acid,as P2O546 30847 56448 62049 51050 52051 52052 066Potash, as K2O44 17746 28449 42251 37352 75253 66454 197Total (N P2O5 K2O)244 131 249 101 255 861 262 387 263 764 266 756 269 482Figure 2. World supply of (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acid and (c) potash,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)(a) Ammonia, as N170 000160 000150 000140 000130 000120 000110 000100 0002015201620172018201920202021202220233
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022(b) Phosphoric acid, as P2O570 00060 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 1820192020202120222023(c) Potash, as K2O70 00060 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 00002015DEMANDDemand for fertilizer useForecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium forfertilizer use, up to 2022, are provided in table 3 (and figure 3). Regional andsub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.4
The world fe rtilize r outlookTable 3. World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)Year2016Nitrogen, N201720182019202020212022105 148 105 050 105 893 107 424 108 744 110 193 111 591Phosphorus, as P2O544 48145 15245 90246 58747 40248 26449 096Potassium, as K2O35 43436 34937 17137 97138 71139 47340 232Total (N P2O5 K2O)185 063 186 551 188 966 191 981 194 857 197 930 200 919Figure 3. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and (c) potassium,for fertilizer use, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)(a) Nitrogen, N140 000130 000120 000110 000100 00090 00080 00070 92020202120222023(b) Phosphorus, as P2O570 00060 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 0000201520165
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022(c) Potassium, as K2O70 00060 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 0000201520162017201820192020202120222023Demand for other usesForecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for otheruses, up to 2022, are provided in table 4 (and figure 4). Regional and subregional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.Table 4. World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus (phosphoric acid based) andpotassium for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)Year2015201620162017201820192020Nitrogen, N36 93037 66338 32038 96539 56940 12740 660Phosphorus (phos.acid based), as P2O56 4446 6777 0367 1707 2917 4827 734Potassium, as K2O5 5725 7525 8765 9936 1126 2376 363Total (N P2O5 K2O)48 94650 09251 23252 12852 97253 84654 757Figure 4. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus (phosphoric acid based) and(c) potassium, for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)(a) Nitrogen, N50 00040 00030 00020 00010 00006201520162017201820192020202120222023
The world fe rtilize r outlook(b) Phosphorus (phosphoric acid based), as P2O550 00040 00030 00020 00010 192020202120222023(c) Potassium, as K2O50 00040 00030 00020 00010 000020152016SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCESThe potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is calculatedas maximum achievable production (supply) minus total demand (includingfertilizer and other uses):Potential balance supply – (fertilizer uses other uses demand)where supply of each nutrient refers to:»» Ammonia, for nitrogen»» Phosphoric acid, for phosphorus»» Potash, for potassiumGiven that phosphorus supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoricacid (H3PO4), the demand considered in the balance is also restricted tophosphoric acid-based fertilizer demand. These data are available in annex 2.7
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022Unforeseeable factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations,logistical problems, unscheduled shut down due to technical reasons, naturalcalamities (for example, earthquakes, mine flooding) are not considered in thebalance. Demand projections are based on agronomic considerations (for example,cropped area and application rate of fertilizer), market feedback, estimates byindustry associations, growth models, econometric models and expert judgement.Forecasts of potential world balances of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium,up to 2022, are provided in table 5. Regional and sub-regional forecasts areprovided in annexes 1, 2 and 3. Figure 5 indicates the potential balances byregion in 2022, the final year of the forecast period.Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)Year2016201720182019202020212022Nitrogen, N11 56812 54013 60615 11512 17911 25210 9687281 2231 2171 1911 2311 238771Potassium, as K2O3 1714 1836 3757 4097 9297 9547 602Total (N P2O5 K2O)15 46717 94621 19723 71621 33920 44519 341Phosphorus (phos.acid based), as P2O5Figure 5. Potential world balance of (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and (c) potassium,2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)(a) Nitrogen, N16 00014 00012 00010 0008 0006 0004 0002 00008201520162017201820192020202120222023
The world fe rtilize r outlook(b) Phosphorus, as P2O51 4001 2001 232017201820192020202120222023(c) Potassium, as K2O9 0008 0007 0006 0005 0004 0003 0002 0001 000020152016Figure 6. Potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in 2022,by region (thousand tonnes)20 00010 0005 0000-5 000-10 000NP 20 5niaeaOcopeEastCe Eunt rora pelA &siaurtEesWCEu entro ralpeiaAsstEaSouthAsiasiatAesWLa& tin ACa mrib erbe icaanAm Ner orthicarica-15 000AfThousand T15 000K 209
Annexes10
Anne xe sAnnex 1World and regional nitrogen supply, demand andbalance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes N)2016201720182019202020212022WORLDAmmonia - capacity180 496 184 558 186 974 189 523 187 354 188 908 190 397Ammonia - supply capability 153 646 155 253 157 819 161 504 160 492 161 572 163 219Nitrogen - other uses36 93037 66338 32038 96539 56940 12740 660Nitrogen - available forfertilizers116 716 117 590 119 499 122 539 120 923 121 445 122 559Nitrogen - fertilizer demand105 148 105 050 105 893 107 424 108 744 110 193 111 591Nitrogen - potential balance11 56812 54013 60615 11512 17911 25210 968Ammonia - capacity9 4589 45810 05510 65110 86911 76311 763Ammonia - supply capability6 4767 6807 8298 2478 7179 1269 549563576588601614626638Nitrogen - available forfertilizers5 9137 1047 2417 6468 1038 5008 911Nitrogen - fertilizer demand4 0144 1654 3064 4684 5154 7605 008Nitrogen - potential balance1 8992 9392 9353 1783 5883 7403 903Ammonia - capacity26 06927 81728 74528 44428 44428 44428 444Ammonia - supply capability22 62224 01824 70624 92725 31825 47825 591Nitrogen - other uses7 6697 7447 8928 0268 1248 2068 272Nitrogen - available forfertilizers14 95316 27416 81416 90117 19417 27217 319Nitrogen - fertilizer demand23 44323 29523 67324 02924 35424 69825 043Nitrogen - potential balance-8 490-7 021-6 859-7 128-7 160-7 426-7 724AFRICANitrogen - other usesAMERICASTable follows in the next page 11
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 20222016201720182019202020212022Ammonia - capacity16 39317 81618 43218 43218 43218 43218 432Ammonia - supply capability14 97316 10417 22917 35417 51117 65117 764Nitrogen - other uses6 2006 2186 3006 3826 4446 5066 563Nitrogen - available forfertilizers8 7739 88610 92910 97211 06711 14511 201Nitrogen - fertilizer demand14 28714 11014 35314 47814 56314 66314 765Nitrogen - potential balance-5 514-4 224-3 424-3 506-3 496-3 518-3 564Ammonia - capacity9 67610 00110 31310 01210 01210 01210 012Ammonia - supply capability7 6497 9147 4777 5737 8077 8277 827Nitrogen - other uses1 4691 5261 5921 6441 6801 7001 709Nitrogen - available forfertilizers6 1806 3885 8855 9296 1276 1276 118Nitrogen - fertilizer demand9 1579 1859 3209 5529 79110 03510 279Nitrogen - potential balance-2 977-2 797-3 435-3 623-3 664-3 908-4 161North AmericaLatin America & CaribbeanASIAAmmonia - capacity102 152 103 416 104 113 105 472 102 972 103 346 104 755Ammonia - supply capability88 22987 67588 13889 96887 75187 91388 947Nitrogen - other uses18 91319 40419 68720 03820 38420 71921 054Nitrogen - available forfertilizers69 31668 27168 45169 93067 36767 19467 893Nitrogen - fertilizer demand59 24458 77859 21359 99560 70861 36461 976Nitrogen - potential balance10 0729 4939 2389 9356 6595 8305 917Ammonia - capacity15 09516 54916 54316 58016 58016 85116 851Ammonia - supply capability14 32315 34715 37915 45215 56215 72415 9048741 0199559799991 0111 02213 44914 32814 42414 47314 56314 71314 882Nitrogen -
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022 4 DEMAND Demand for fertilizer use Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use, up to 2022, are provided in table 3 (and figure 3). Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3. 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020 4 The world and regional demand forecasts for the three main plant nutrients for 2015 to 2020 are presented in Annexes 1, 2 and 3, as well as in Annexes 4, 5 and 6 where compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are also provided. Table 4. World demand for fertilizer nutrient use, 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes)
1. Dry fertilizer and its active ingredients are both gravi-metric—in other words, expressed as a weight per area. 2. Liquid fertilizer and its active ingredients are expressed on a volumetric basis and expressed as a volume per area. 3. The key point for the conversion from liquid to dry fertilizer is the density of the liquid fertilizer. 4.
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data presented in this outlook use the FAO fertilizer year 1 July -30 June. For countries that report their fertilizer statistics on a calendar year basis, data are shown under the fertilizer year, the first part of which corresponds to the calendar year, i.e. 1988 data are under 1988/89.
Fertilizer Market Trends and Outlook December 10, 2013 Jeff Holzman Director, Market Research . . World Fertilizer Consumption 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 1970 19701980 1990 2000 2010 5 10 15 20 25 30
The paper analyzes global nitrogen (N) fertilizer demand and supply trends and outlook under this changing operating environment. Nitrogen Fertilizer Use Evolution of Global Fertilizer Consumption between 2000/01 and 2013/14 World fertilizer consumption increased steadily between 2000/01 and 2007/08, by 23%, rising from 137.0 to
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know not: Am I my brother's keeper?” (Genesis 4:9) 4 Abstract In this study, I examine the protection of human rights defenders as a contemporary form of human rights practice in Kenya, within a broader socio-political and economic framework, that includes histories of activism in Kenya. By doing so, I seek to explore how the protection regime, a globally defined set of norms and .
