Fertilizer Outlook 2017 – 2021
A/17/85June 2017Fertilizer Outlook2017 – 2021Production & International Tradeand Agriculture ServicesInternational Fertilizer Association (IFA)IFA Annual Conference22-24 May 2017Marrakech (Morocco)IFA Strategic Forum, Dubai, 26‐28 November 2016“Short‐Term Fertilizer Outlook 2016‐2017” P. Heffer and M. Prud’homme, IFA1
This Public Summary was prepared by the Agriculture and Production & International Trade Services,on the occasion of the 85th IFA Annual Conference held in Marrakech (Morocco) in May 2017. It drawson two reports that were available after the IFA Annual Conference to IFA members only: the IFA report“Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand: 2016/17-2021/22” and the IFAreport “Fertilizer and Raw Materials Global Supply: 2017-2021”.The Production & International Trade Service: Michel Prud’homme, Senior DirectorJosé de Sousa, Coordinator – PIT Statistical ProgrammeVirginie Couturier, Phosphate Products Market AnalystOlivier Rousseau, Market Analyst – Potash & NPKSylvie Marcel-Monnier, AssistantThe Agriculture Service: Patrick Heffer, Senior DirectorArmelle Gruère, Market & Economic AnalystGuillaume Peyroutou, Policy AnalystCopyright 2017 International Fertilizer Association - All Rights ReservedDisclaimer of Liability for IFA Reports/PresentationsIFA endeavours to base its reports and presentations on accurate information, to the extent reasonablypossible under the circumstances. However, neither IFA nor its members warrant or guarantee anyinformation IFA publishes or presents, and they disclaim any liability for any consequences, direct orindirect, arising from the use of or reliance upon IFA publications or presentations by any person at anytime.
ECONOMIC AND POLICYCONTEXTWorld economic growth is slowly improvingEconomic activity has shown signs of recoverysince the second half of 2016, especially indeveloped countries. Global growth is forecast tocontinue increasing slowly beyond 2017. It isexpected to reach 3.8% by 2022. This trend ismainly due to expectations in emerging anddeveloping economies, where output growth isprojected to increase to 5% annually by 2022.Developed countries are expected to show moremodest medium-term growth rates (1.7% in2022).Policy developments continue to have animportant impact on the fertilizer outlookImportant policy developments recently occurredin the European Union (EU), India, Pakistan andNigeria. In the EU, a new fertilizer regulationreflecting the Union’s “circular economy” strategyshould be adopted in the end of this year or in thebeginning of 2018. Germany recently amendedits Fertilizing Ordinance to comply with the EUNitrates Directive, limiting permissible N and Pbalance surpluses. In India, the governmentcontinues to adapt the country’s fertilizer subsidypolicy; it is expected to scale-up, potentiallynationwide, Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) tofarmers in an attempt to replace the currentfertilizer subsidy regime. Nigeria has recentlylaunched a “Presidential Fertilizer Initiative”expected to increase crop yields and save US 200 million in foreign exchange by increasingproduction of soil- and crop-specific NPKs by 1.5million metric tonnes (Mt) in 2017.WORLD AGRICULTUREGlobal cereal production to decrease in2017/18, but with little impact on inventoriesEarly prospects for 2017/18 point to a decline incereal production, driven by coarse grains andwheat. Low coarse grain prices in the previousseason have encouraged farmers to reduce theirplantings in 2017/18, while lower yields areexpected for wheat following the record reachedin 2016/17. Global rice output is seen asremaining stable or as slightly up. Use of cerealsis anticipated to rise only modestly in 2017/18,driven by coarse grains and rice. After increasingfor four consecutive seasons, global cerealstocks are expected to decline. However, thereduction of global cereal inventories anticipatedin 2017/18 will likely be small relative to theexisting stockpile. Cereal prices are thereforeforecast to remain low in the short term. Soybeanstocks are expected to decline, but would remaincomfortable, therefore preventing prices fromincreasing much. The price outlook is a littlebrighter for sugar and cotton, as the anticipatedlarger 2017/18 crops might remain belowconsumption levels.Agricultural production will grow more slowlyin the medium termExpected slower population growth, together withmore modest income growth, will slightly curb theexpansion of global food demand in comingyears.Some foods will be in greater demand thanothers, as rising incomes and increasingurbanization in developing countries continue toinduce gradual diet changes. Consumption ofmeat, dairy products, fish, sugar, fruits andvegetables is seen as increasing more rapidlythan consumption of cereals. Agriculturalproduction will adapt to reduced demand for foodand will expand at about the same rate in thecoming years. However, production of cerealscould remain below consumption for some timeas some of the comfortable stocks built up inrecent years decrease. Oilseed production willincrease more rapidly, supported by firm demandfrom the livestock sector. Expansion of cerealproduction will be based mostly on yieldimprovement, while increases in both area andyield will drive oilseed and sugar production.IFA Annual Conference, Marrakech, 22‐24 May 2017“Fertilizer Outlook 2017 ‐ 2021” PIT and Agriculture Services, IFA1
Global inventories and stock-to-use ratios ofmost agricultural commodities are expected tocontract during the next few years, supportinggradual but modest price increases.FERTILIZER DEMANDFollowing a firm increase in 2016/17, worlddemand is anticipated to grow modestly in2017/18Owing to favourable weather following anexceptionally strong El Niño event and prospectsfor improving returns from farming in countrieswith supportive exchange rates, world fertilizerdemand grew firmly in 2016/17 ( 2.4%) to anestimated 186 Mt. Demand for P and K isanticipated to expand faster than that for N.The outlook for 2017/18 is influenced by ampleinventories and low prices for most crops;improving economic prospects in developedcountries, Russia, Brazil and Sub-SaharanAfrica; and growing political uncertainty inseveral large fertilizer-consuming markets. Worldfertilizer demand is forecast to grow modestly, by1.2%, to 188 Mt. K demand would grow mostrapidly, owing to good prospects in China, India,Brazil and Indonesia, and a rebound in Belarus.N and P demand would expand moremoderately, as drops in Turkey, Pakistan andGermany partly offset increases elsewhere.Global fertilizer demand forecast to remainslightly below 200 Mt by 2021/22The medium-term outlook for world agricultureremains broadly unchanged compared to lastyear, with expectations of relatively flat realprices for most agricultural commodities,reflecting prospects for ample supplies andweakening demand growth.In the absence of major weather-related shocks,or economic or policy changes in the mainfertilizer-consuming markets, the current contextsupports modest fertilizer demand growthprospects in the next five years.Under the baseline scenario, global fertilizerdemand is seen as growing on average by 1.5%per annum (p.a.) between the base year(average of the three-year period 2014/15 to2016/17) and 2021/22.1 Aggregate worlddemand is projected to reach 199 Mt at the endof the outlook period. Reflecting the progressiveadoption by farmers of best managementpractices that result in N use efficiencyimprovements, as well as the increasingrecycling of organic nutrient sources, K demandis forecast to grow more firmly (2.1% p.a.) thandemand for P (1.5% p.a.) and N (1.2% p.a.).The highest growth rate is anticipated in Africa,followed by Eastern Europe & Central Asia andLatin America. These three regions have thegreatest agricultural growth potential in thedecade to come. Demand in South Asia is seenas rising below the historical trend, as neemcoated urea, upscaling of Direct Benefit Transferto farmers, and rapid adoption of water-solublefertilizers will influence the outlook. West Asiandemand growth is very speculative, as it is highlydependent on the evolution of regionalgeopolitical tensions. In East Asia fertilizer usageis forecast to expand modestly, as Chinese N andP demand is seen as reaching a plateau duringthe outlook period. Demand growth in developedregions is seen as weak, with better prospects inOceania than in North America and Western &Central Europe. In volume terms, Latin America,South Asia and East Asia together would accountfor three-fourths of the projected increase inglobal fertilizer demand in the next five years.1The average annual rate of growth in globalfertilizer demand is calculated over a period of sixyears.2IFA Annual Conference, Marrakech, 22‐24 May 2017“Fertilizer Outlook 2017 ‐ 2021” PIT and Agriculture Services, IFA
FERTILIZER SUPPLYThe fertilizer industry was heavily challenged in2016. It was confronted with uneven globalnutrient demand, soft economic prospects,depressed crop prices, rising market competitionand volatile energy prices. This combinationcreated high uncertainty in fertilizer marketsthroughout the year.As fertilizer prices dropped to their lowest levelsduring the past five years, several producersreacted with cost reduction measures, temporarycurtailments or mothballing of capacity, andconsideration of trade defence measures.Market conditions further deteriorated in2016, driven by abundant supply andrelatively soft demand growthOn average, the fertilizer industry operated at81% of primary nutrient capacity in 2016. Globalnutrient demand was adequately supplied fromexisting production capacity. Total nutrient salesin 2016 were estimated at 249 Mt nutrients.Fertilizer sales, which accounted for 76% of totalsales, were estimated at 186 Mt nutrients,recovering by 2.5% over 2015.Modest growth rate of fertilizer nutrientdemand up to 2021In 2021 world total nutrient sales are projected at266 Mt nutrients, for an average annual growthrate of about 1.4%. Nutrient fertilizer sales in2021 would total 198 Mt nutrients, growing at1.3% p.a. and representing 74% of total sales.The near future appears to show a growingimbalance between rapidly increasing supply andmoderate demand growth. Massive new capacityadditions will be commissioned over the next fiveyears, driven by investment decisions made fourto eight years ago. Supply will be ample, if notabundant, at least up to 2021.Other challenges confronting the fertilizer , increasingly volatile energy prices,competing uses of feedstock, and rising tradeprotectionism. In response to these, the fertilizerindustry is actively seeking new markets,diversifying product ranges and striving foroperational excellence.Large capacity expansions in 2017-2021Between 2017 and 2021 the fertilizer industry willinvest close to US 110 billion in more than65 new production units, increasing globalcapacity by 90 million tonnes products.Based on current market conditions and amodest 1.4% demand growth projection duringthe next five years, the industry will face a .Nitrogen OutlookGlobal ammonia capacity still expanding by anet 8% between 2016 and 2021, despite somemassive reductions in ChinaGlobal ammonia capacity is projected to expandby 8% over 2016, to reach 234 Mt NH3 in 2021.Large increases in capacity are expected inEECA, North America and Africa.Rising nitrogen demand will presentopportunities for exports to Latin Americaand South AsiaRegional nitrogen deficits are seen as increasingin Latin America and South Asia, while remainingrelatively stable in West Europe and East Asia.The prevalent deficit in North America isshrinking thanks to growing domestic capacity.Rising demand in Latin America and South Asiawill support higher imports by 2021.Supply/demand imbalance accelerating in2017-2019Between 2016 and 2021 global nitrogen supplywould expand by 1.8% p.a. while demand wouldsee a 1.2% annual increase.IFA Annual Conference, Marrakech, 22‐24 May 2017“Fertilizer Outlook 2017 ‐ 2021” PIT and Agriculture Services, IFA3
New urea capacity rising in the short term, butlittle growth after 2019Urea represents half of total nitrogen output andwill contribute two-thirds of the projectedammonia capacity increment. Global ureacapacity is projected to increase by a net 17 Mt( 8%), to 226 Mt in 2021. Close to 90% of theplanned expansions would occur in 2016/18. Ona regional basis, North America, EECA andSouth Asia will account for 70% of overallcapacity growth.Global urea supply (effective capacity) isestimated at 200 Mt in 2021, growing at 1.6% p.a.over 2016.An increasing imbalance in the short termGlobal demand for urea for all uses is forecast toincrease by 1.5% p,a. compared with 2016, toreach 187 Mt in 2021. Latin America, South Asiaand Africa would contribute to the bulk of theglobal incremental demand.Phosphate OutlookLarge supply of phosphate rock emerging,mostly for local usesGlobal phosphate rock supply would grow by10% compared with 2016, to 249 Mt in 2021.Large expansions would occur in Africa and WestAsia, together accounting for 80% of the netincrease.Growing global phosphoric acid andprocessed phosphates capacity, with largeincreases in two countries in particularGlobal phosphoric acid capacity in 2021 isprojected to expand by 12% over 2016, to64.1 Mt P2O5 in 2021. Global capacity of the mainprocessed phosphates would grow by6.9 Mt P2O5 to 52.5 Mt P2O5 (110.7 Mt products)in 2021. Large capacity additions are expected inMorocco and Saudi Arabia.4The global supply of phosphoric acid wouldincrease by 2.4% p.a. compared with 2016, whiledemand would grow at 1.8% p.a., pointing to arising potential surplus from 2017 to 2019, andthen stabilizing until 2021.Potash OutlookLarge capacity projects to add 17 Mt of MOPcapacity between 2017 and 2021Global potassium capacity is forecast to grow byan overall 20% compared with 2016, to65.5 Mt K2O in 2021, thanks to new projects inCanada, Russia, Turkmenistan, Belarus, andChina. In product terms, global potassiumcapacity in 2021 would reach 111.2 Mt products,expanding by a net 19 Mt over 2016, of whichMOP would contribute 17 Mt.North America and EECA to account for 97%of world incremental potash supplyGlobal potassium supply would increase to53.3 Mt K2O in 2021, representing a netincrement of 9.1 Mt ( 21%) and a growth of 4%p.a compared with 2016. In terms of MOPequivalent, global potash supply would be89 Mt MOP in 2021.On a regional basis, North America will be theregion with the largest potential supply in 2021,(35% global share), followed by EECA (34%),East Asia (14%), and other regions (17%).Moderate potash demand growth, leading torising trade volumes amid larger surplusesGlobal demand for potassium would grow by11% (2.1% p.a.) compared with 2016 and reach45.6 Mt K2O in 2021. Global supply/demandconditions show growing potential surplus,exceeding 6.3 Mt in 2018 and reaching7.7 Mt K2O in 2021 (14% of potential supply).This growing imbalance is essentially driven bylarge capacity increments against moderatedemand growth. Import demand is projected toincrease in East Asia, South Asia, Latin Americaand Africa.IFA Annual Conference, Marrakech, 22‐24 May 2017“Fertilizer Outlook 2017 ‐ 2021” PIT and Agriculture Services, IFA
IFA Strategic Forum, Dubai, 26‐28 November 2016“Short‐Term Fertilizer Outlook 2016‐2017” P. Heffer and M. Prud’homme, IFA5
fertilizer-consuming markets, the current context supports modest fertilizer demand growth prospects in the next five years. Under the baseline scenario, global fertilizer demand is seen as growing on average by 1.5% per annum (p.a.) between the base year (average of the three-year period 2014/15 to 2016/17) and 2021/22.1 Aggregate world
Outlook 2013, Outlook 2016, or volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 Support for Outlook 2013, 2016, and volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 ends in December 2021. To continue using the Outlook integration after the end of 2021, make plans now to upgrade to the latest versions of Outlook and Windows. Outlook on the web
1. Dry fertilizer and its active ingredients are both gravi-metric—in other words, expressed as a weight per area. 2. Liquid fertilizer and its active ingredients are expressed on a volumetric basis and expressed as a volume per area. 3. The key point for the conversion from liquid to dry fertilizer is the density of the liquid fertilizer. 4.
2 GCC Fertilizer arket utlook: Challenges and pportunities for GCC Fertilizer Producers Eecutive ummary GCC fertilizer market outlook Ammonia Ammonia consumption in the GCC grew at close to 1% per year between 2015 and 2018. In 2018, the consumption was estimated to be 10.6 million tons. In 2017, the consumption was about 10.8 million tons, an .
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022 4 DEMAND Demand for fertilizer use Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use, up to 2022, are provided in table 3 (and figure 3). Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3. 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0
data presented in this outlook use the FAO fertilizer year 1 July -30 June. For countries that report their fertilizer statistics on a calendar year basis, data are shown under the fertilizer year, the first part of which corresponds to the calendar year, i.e. 1988 data are under 1988/89.
Effect of bio fertilizer on stem girth All treatments were numerically higher for stem girth when compared to the control (Trt1). It is interesting to note that all treatments with a combination of mineral fertilizer and bio fertilizer performed significantly (P 0.05) better than recommended dose of mineral
The paper analyzes global nitrogen (N) fertilizer demand and supply trends and outlook under this changing operating environment. Nitrogen Fertilizer Use Evolution of Global Fertilizer Consumption between 2000/01 and 2013/14 World fertilizer consumption increased steadily between 2000/01 and 2007/08, by 23%, rising from 137.0 to
criminal justice systems in terms of homicide cases solved by the police, persons arrested for and per-sons convicted of homicide. Bringing the perpetrators of homicide to justice and preventing impunity for those responsible for lethal violence is a core responsibility of the State. Indeed, there is international recognition1 that the State is required to provide judicial protection with .
