Projections Of Education Statistics To 2022

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Projections of EducationStatistics to 2022Forty-first Edition201920212019202101820202022201820202022NCES 2014-051U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N

Projections of EducationStatistics to 2022Forty-first EditionFEBRUARY 2014William J. HussarNational Center for Education StatisticsTabitha M. BaileyIHS Global InsightNCES 2014-051U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of EducationArne DuncanSecretaryInstitute of Education SciencesJohn Q. EastonDirectorNational Center for Education StatisticsJohn Q. EastonActing CommissionerThe National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reportingdata related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports andspecialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improvingtheir statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, andaccurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Departmentof Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unlessspecifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences.You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments orsuggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments toNCES, IES, U.S. Department of Education1990 K Street NWWashington, DC 20006-5651February 2014The NCES Home Page address is http://nces.ed.gov.The NCES Publications and Products address is http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-08-DO-0087 with IHS Global Insight. Mention of trade names,commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Suggested CitationHussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2013). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 (NCES 2014-051). U.S. Department of Education,National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.For ordering information on this report, write toED Pubs, U.S. Department of EducationP.O. Box 22207Alexandria, VA 22304or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS or order online at http://www.edpubs.gov.Content ContactWilliam J. Hussar(202) 502-7359william.hussar@ed.gov

ForewordProjections of Education Statistics to 2022 is the 41st reportin a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementaryand secondary schools and postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions. This report provides revisions of projectionsshown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 andprojections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, andexpenditures to the year 2022.In addition to projections at the national level, the reportincludes projections of public elementary and secondaryschool enrollment and public high school graduates to theyear 2022 at the state level. The projections in this reportwere produced by the National Center for EducationStatistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,and others with state-level projections developed using aconsistent methodology. They are not intended to supplantdetailed projections prepared for individual states.Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodologyand describes the models and assumptions used to developthe national and state projections. The enrollment models useenrollment data and population estimates and projections fromNCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based onthe mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.The models also use projections of economic variables fromIHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.The projections presented in this report are based on the2010 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internalmigration, net immigration, and mortality rate from theCensus Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.John Q. Easton, Acting CommissionerNational Center for Education StatisticsAssumptions regarding the population and the economy arethe key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,or local education policies that may affect education statistics.Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    iii

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ContentsPageForeword.iiiList of Tables. viiList of Figures. xiAbout This Report. 1Projections . 1Limitations of Projections . 1Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .3Introduction. 3Accuracy of Projections. 3National. 4State and Regional (Public School Data). 6Section 2. High School Graduates.7Introduction. 7Accuracy of Projections. 7National. 8State and Regional (Public School Data). 10Section 3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers.11Introduction. 11Accuracy of Projections. 11Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools. 12Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education.15Introduction. 15Accuracy of Projections. 15Current Expenditures. 16Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions.19Introduction. 19Accuracy of Projections. 19Total Enrollment. 20Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution. 21First-Time Freshmen Enrollment . 24Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    v

PageSection 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.25Introduction. 25Accuracy of Projections. 25Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient. 26Reference Tables.29Technical Appendixes.75Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology.77A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology. 77A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment. 84A.2. High School Graduates. 94A.3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers. 99A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education. 106A.5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions. 110A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred. 128Appendix B. Supplementary Tables.131Appendix C. Data Sources.139Appendix D. References.155Appendix E. List of Abbreviations.157Appendix F. Glossary.159vi   Contents

List of 17.18.19.20.PageActual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK–12, preK–8, and 9–12 in elementary andsecondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 31Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by grade:Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 32Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, byrace/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 33Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK–8 in public elementary and secondary schools,by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 34Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9–12 in public schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall1997 through fall 2022. 35Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK–12 in public elementary and secondary schools,by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 36Actual and projected percentage changes in grades preK–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondaryschools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 38Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK–8 in public schools, by region and state: Fall2004 through fall 2022. 40Actual and projected percentage changes in grades preK–8 enrollment in public schools, by region and state:Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 42Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9–12 in public schools, by region and state: Fall2004 through fall 2022. 44Actual and projected percentage changes in grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by region andstate: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 46Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1997–98through 2022–23. 47Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1997–98through 2022–23. 48Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region and state: School years 2004–05through 2022–23. 50Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: School years2004–05 through 2022–23. 52Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers and elementary and secondary newteacher hires, by control of school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 53Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by controlof school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 54Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in fallenrollment for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 55Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in average dailyattendance (ADA) for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 56Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex,attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 57Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    vii

PageActual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, byage group, sex, and attendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 58Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex andattendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 60Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public 4-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex and attendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 61Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public 2-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex and attendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 62Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in private 4-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex and attendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 63Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in private 2-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex and attendance status: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 64Actual and projected numbers for undergraduate enrollment in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 65Actual and projected numbers for postbaccalaureate enrollment in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 66Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 67Actual and projected numbers for first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 68Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent enrollment in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by control and level of institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 69Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 70Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 71Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 72Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 73Text TablesA.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school,and grade in elementary and secondary schools: 2013. 87B.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time andcontrol of school: 2013. 95C.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondaryschool teachers, by lead time: 2013. 102D.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures forpublic elementary and secondary education, by lead time: 2013. 108E.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by lead time, sex, and level of institution: 2013. 113F.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by lead time and race/ethnicity: 2013. 115viii   List of Tables

TablePageAppendix A. Introduction to Projection MethodologyA-1.Summary of forecast assumptions to 2022. 81A-2.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary andsecondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions: 2013. 82A-3.Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), part 1. 83A-4.Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), part 2. 83A-5.Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2011, and fall 2012 throughfall 2022. 90A-6.Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2011, and fall 2012through fall 2022. 90A-7.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected preK–12 enrollment in publicelementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: 2013. 91A-8.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected preK–8 enrollment in publicelementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: 2013. 92A-9.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, bylead time, region, and state: 2013. 93A-10.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in publicschools, by lead time, region, and state: 2013. 98A-11.Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers. 104A-12.Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, andteaching status: School year 2007–08. 104A-13.Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school:Selected school years, 1987–88 through 2007–08. 104A-14.Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and controlof school: Selected school years, 1993–94 to 1994–95 through 2022–23 to 2023–24. 105A-15.Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment forpublic elementary and secondary schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita. 109A-16.Actual and projected numbers for enrollment rates of all students at postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by sex, attendance status, and age: Fall 2011, fall 2017, and fall 2022. 116A-17.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of men atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 117A-18.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of women atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 118A-19.Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2011, and fall 2012 through fall 2022. 119A-20.Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2011, and fall 2012 through fall 2022. 119A-21.Actual and projected enrollment in public postsecondary degree-granting institutions as a percentage oftotal postsecondary enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2011,and fall 2012 through fall 2022. 120A-22.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White men atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 120A-23.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White women atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 121A-24.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black men atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 122A-25.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black women atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 123Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    ix

TablePageA-26.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic men atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 124Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic women atpostsecondary degree-granting institutions. 125Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islandermen at postsecondary degree-granting institutions. 126Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islanderwomen at postsecondary degree-granting institutions. 127Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree level and sex. 130A-27.A-28.A-29.A-30.Appendix B. Supplementary TablesB-1.Annual number of births: 1946 through 2011. 132B-2.Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 1997 through 2022. 133B-3.Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 1997 through 2022 . 134B-4.Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 1997 through 2022. 135B-5.Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change infall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population:School years 1997–98 through 2022–23 . 136B-6.Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 137x   List of Tables

List of 6.17.18.19.20.PageActual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level:Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 4Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school:Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 5Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity:Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 5Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2011through fall 2022. 6Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region:Fall 2004, fall 2011, and fall 2022. 6Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1997–98through 2022–23. 8Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1997–98through 2022–23. 9Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2009–10through 2022–23. 10Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2004–05, 2009–10,and 2022–23. 10Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 1997through fall 2022. 12Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by controlof school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 13Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall1999, fall 2011, and fall 2022. 13Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2011–12dollars): School years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 16Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondaryschools (in constant 2011–12 dollars): School years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 17Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 1997 through 2022. 19Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions: Fall 1997through fall 2022. 20Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by agegroup: Fall 1997, fall 2011, and fall 2022. 21Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex: Fall1997 through fall 2022. 21Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by attendancestatus: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 22Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by level ofdegree: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 22Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    xi

Figure21.22.23.24.25.26.27.PageActual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 23Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by controlof institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 23Actual and projected numbers for total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all postsecondary degreegranting institutions, by sex: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 24Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 26Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 26Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 27Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting institutions,by sex of recipient: Academic years 1997–98 through 2022–23. 27xii   List of Figures

About This ReportPROJECTIONSThis edition of Projections of Education Statistics providesprojections for key education statistics, including enrollment,graduates, teachers, and expenditures in elementary andsecondary public and private schools, as well as enrollmentand degrees conferred at postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions. Included are national data on enrollment andgraduates for the past 15 years and projections to the year2022. Also included are state-level data on enrollment inpublic elementary and secondary schools and public highschools from 2004, with projections to 2022. This report isorganized by the level of schooling with sections 1, 2, 3, and4 covering aspects of elementary and secondary education andsections 5 and 6 covering aspects of postsecondary education.There are a number of limitations in projecting somestatistics. First, state-level data on enrollment and graduates inprivate elementary and secondary schools and on enrollmentand degrees conferred in postsecondary degree-grantinginstitutions are not included. Neither the actual numbersnor the projections of public and private elementary andsecondary school enrollment include homeschooled students.Similar methodologies were used to obtain a uniform setof projections for each of the 50 states and the Districtof Columbia. These projections are further adjusted toagree with the national projections of public elementaryand secondary school enrollment and public high schoolgraduates contained in this report.Appendix A describes the methodology and assumptions usedto develop the projections; appendix B presents supplementarytables; appendix C describes data sources; appendix D is a listof the references; appendix E presents a list of abbreviations;and appendix F is a glossary of terms.LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTIONSProjections of a time series usually differ from the finalreported data due to errors from many sources, such as theproperties of the projection methodologies, which dependon the validity of many assumptions.The mean absolute percentage error is one way to expressthe forecast accuracy of past projections. This measureexpresses the average of the absolute values of errors inpercentage terms, where errors are the differences betweenpast projections and actual data. For example, based onpast editions of Projections of Education Statistics, the meanabsolute percentage errors of public school enrollment ingrades prekindergarten through 12 for lead times of 1, 2, 5,and 10 years were 0.3, 0.6, 1.3, and 2.5 percent, respectively.In contrast, mean absolute percentage errors of private schoolenrollment in grades prekindergarten through 8 for leadtimes of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years were 2.6, 5.8, 10.0, and 17.9percent, respectively. For more information on mean absolutepercentage errors, see table A-2 in appendix A.The summary of projections provides highlights of thenational and state data, while the reference tables andfigures present more detail. All calculations within Projectionsof Education Statistics are based on unrounded estimates.Therefore, the reader may find that a calculation, such as adifference or percentage change, cited in the text or figuremay not be identical to the calculation obtained by using therounded values shown in the accompanying tables.Projections of Education Statistics to 2022    1

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Section 1Elementary andSecondary EnrollmentINTRODUCTIONTotal public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment was 55 million in fall 2011, representing a 5 percentincrease since fall 1997 (table 1). Between fall 2011, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2022, a furtherincrease of 6 percent is expected. Public school enrollment is projected to be higher in 2022 than in 2011 while privateschool enrollment is projected to be lower. Public school enrollments are projected to be to be higher in 2022 than in 2011for Blacks, Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders, and students of two or more races, and enrollment is projected to be lowerfor Whites and American Indians/Alaska Natives, (table 3). Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2022than in 2011 for the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West (table 6).Factors affecting the projectionsFactors th

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 . is the 41st report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting . institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. and . projections of enrollment .File Size: 2MBPage Count: 194Explore furtherYouTubewww.youtube.comNewsmax – Breaking News News Videos Politics, Health .www.newsmax.comFox News - Breaking News Updates Latest News Headlines .www.foxnews.comSingle sign-on for education Cleverclever.comWelcome to Costco Wholesalewww.costco.comRecommended to you based on what's popular Feedback

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