Projections Of Education Statistitcs To 2026
Projections of EducationStatistics to 2026Forty-fifth Edition2023202520232025222024202602220242026NCES 2018-019U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N
Projections of EducationStatistics to 2026Forty-fifth EditionApril 2018William J. HussarNational Center for Education StatisticsTabitha M. BaileyIHS Global Inc.NCES 2018-019U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
U.S. Department of EducationBetsy DeVosSecretary of EducationInstitute of Education SciencesThomas BrockCommissioner of the National Center for Education ResearchDelegated the Duties of the DirectorNational Center for Education StatisticsJames L. WoodworthCommissionerThe National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reportingdata related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports andspecialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improvingtheir statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, andaccurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Departmentof Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unlessspecifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences.You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments orsuggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments toNCES, IES, U.S. Department of EducationPotomac Center Plaza550 12th Street, SWWashington, DC 20202April 2018The NCES Home Page address is http://nces.ed.gov.The NCES Publications and Products address is http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names,commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Suggested CitationHussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2018). Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 (NCES 2018-019). U.S. Department of Education,Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.Content ContactWilliam J. Hussar(202) 245-6389william.hussar@ed.gov
ForewordProjections of Education Statistics to 2026 is the 45th reportin a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementaryand secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions. This report provides revisions of projectionsshown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 andprojections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, andexpenditures to the year 2026.In addition to projections at the national level, the reportincludes projections of public elementary and secondaryschool enrollment and public high school graduates to theyear 2026 at the state level. The projections in this reportwere produced by the National Center for EducationStatistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,and others with state-level projections developed using aconsistent methodology. They are not intended to supplantdetailed projections prepared for individual states.Assumptions regarding the population and the economy arethe key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,or local education policies that may affect education statistics.Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodologyand describes the models and assumptions used to developthe national and state projections. The enrollment modelsuse enrollment data and population estimates and projectionsfrom NCES, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the economicforecasting service IHS Global Inc. The models are based onthe mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.The models also use projections of economic variables fromIHS Global Inc.The projections presented in this report are based onassumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, netimmigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau.For further information, see appendix A.Thomas D. Snyder, SupervisorAnnual Reports and Information StaffNational Center for Education StatisticsProjections of Education Statistics to 2026iii
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ContentsPageForeword .iiiList of Reference Tables . viiList of Figures . xiAbout This Report . 1Projections . 1Limitations of Projections . 1Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .3Introduction . 3Accuracy of Projections . 3National . 4State and Regional (Public School Data) . 6Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) . 8Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .9Introduction . 9Accuracy of Projections . 9Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools . 10Section 3. High School Graduates .13Introduction . 13Accuracy of Projections . 13National . 14State and Regional (Public School Data) . 15Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) . 17Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education .19Introduction . 19Accuracy of Projections . 19Current Expenditures . 20Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions .23Introduction . 23Accuracy of Projections . 23Total Enrollment . 24Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution . 25First-Time Freshmen Enrollment . 29Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution . 30Projections of Education Statistics to 2026v
PageSection 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred .31Introduction . 31Accuracy of Projections . 31Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient . 32Reference Tables .35Technical Appendixes .69Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology . 71A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology . 71A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment . 78A.2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers . 88A.3. High School Graduates . 95A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education . 100A.5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions . 104A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred . 124Appendix B. Supplementary Tables . 127Appendix C. Data Sources . 135Appendix D. References . 149Appendix E. List of Abbreviations . 151Appendix F. Glossary . 153viContents
List of TablesTablePageReference Tables1.Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and controlof institution: Selected years, 1869–70 through fall 2026 . 372.Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 throughfall 2026 . 383.Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years,fall 1990 through fall 2026 . 404.Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selectedyears, fall 1990 through fall 2026 . 425.Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990through fall 2026 . 446.Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2026 . 467.Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2026 . 488.Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacherhires: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2026 . 509.High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2026–27 . 5110.Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980–81 through 2026–27 . 5211.Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998–99 through 2026–27 . 5412.Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools:1989–90 through 2026–27 . 5513.Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student,and control of institution: Selected years, 1947 through 2026 . 5614.Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution,attendance status, and sex of student: Selected years, 1970 through 2026 . 5815.Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age:Selected years, 1970 through 2026 . 6016.Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2026 . 6217.Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,sex of student, and control of institution: 1967 through 2026 . 6418.Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2026 . 6519.Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selectedyears, 1976 through 2026 . 6620.Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level ofinstitution: 1967 through 2026 . 6721.Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years,1869–70 through 2026–27 . 68Projections of Education Statistics to 2026vii
TablePageAppendix A Text TablesA.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school,and grade in elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projectionsof Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 81B.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEsconstructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections ofEducation Statistics to 2025 . 83C.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondaryschool teachers, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 91D.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and controlof school: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 throughProjections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 96E.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time andrace/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 throughProjections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 98F.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures forpublic elementary and secondary education, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections fromProjections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 102G.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions, by lead time, sex, and level of institution: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projectionsof Education Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 107H.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections ofEducation Statistics to 2015 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 109I.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected first-time freshmen enrollment in degree-grantingpostsecondary institutions, by lead time and sex: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections ofEducation Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 110J.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred by degreegranting postsecondary institutions, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections ofEducation Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 125viiiList of Tables
TablePageAppendix A. Introduction to Projection MethodologyA-1.Summary of forecast assumptions to 2026 . 75A-2.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondaryschools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions: MAPEs constructed using projections fromProjections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 76A-3.Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-grantinginstitutions, part 1 . 77A-4.Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-grantinginstitutions, part 2 . 77A-5.Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 throughfall 2026 . 84A-6.Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2014, and fall 2015through fall 2026 . 84A-7.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–12 enrollment in public elementaryand secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projectionsof Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 85A-8.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–8 enrollment in public elementaryand secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projectionsof Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 86A-9.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by leadtime, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 87A-10.Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from1972 to 2014 . 93A-11.Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, andteaching status: School year 2011–12 . 93A-12.Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school:Selected school years, 1987–88 through 2011–12 . 93A-13.Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and controlof school: Selected school years, 1993–94 to 1994–95 through 2026–27 to 2027–28 . 94A-14.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in publicschools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of EducationStatistics to 2000 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . 99A-15.Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for publicelementary and secondary schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita based on data from1973–74 to 2013–14 . 103A-16.Actual and projected enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex,attendance status, and age: Fall 2015, fall 2021, and fall 2026 . 111A-17.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of males atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 2000 to 2015 . 112A-18.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of females atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 2000 to 2015 . 113A-19.Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions,by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2026 . 114A-20.Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions,by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2026 . 115A-21.Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percentage oftotal postsecondary enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015,and fall 2016 through fall 2026 . 116A-22.Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 116Projections of Education Statistics to 2026ix
stimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 117Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 118Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 119Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 120Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females atdegree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 . 121Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islandermales at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2015 . 122Estimated equations and model statistics for full
Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 . is the 45th report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 and projections of enrollment, graduates .File Size: 1MBPage Count: 177
Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario . 100 Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 101 Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 103
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 . is the 41st report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting . institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. and . projections of enrollment .File Size: 2MBPage Count: 194Explore furtherYouTubewww.youtube.comNewsmax – Breaking News News Videos Politics, Health .www.newsmax.comFox News - Breaking News Updates Latest News Headlines .www.foxnews.comSingle sign-on for education Cleverclever.comWelcome to Costco Wholesalewww.costco.comRecommended to you based on what's popular Feedback
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . is the 44th report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics
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