Public School Enrollment Projections 2018 -2027
Public SchoolEnrollment Projections2018 -2027The new Allegany High School in Cumberland, Maryland, opened itsdoors in 2018, replacing the old high school which opened in 1926.September 2018
State of MarylandLarry HoganGovernorBoyd K. RutherfordLt. GovernorMaryland Department of PlanningRobert McCordSecretaryMaryland Department of Planning 301 West Preston Street, Suite 1101Baltimore, Maryland 21201Tel: 410.767.4500 Toll Free: 1.877.767.6272TTY users: Maryland Relayplanning.maryland.govPublic School Enrollment Projections, 2018-2027September 2018 Publication No. 2018-001This Public-School Enrollment Projections report was produced by the Projections and State Data Center ofthe Maryland Department of Planning as a service to local governments and planning officials.
ForewordThis report, Public School Enrollment Projections, 2018‐2027, is an update of the Maryland Department ofPlanning’s annual report on public school enrollment statistics.The report provides projections of public school enrollment through 2027 by grade for each of Maryland’sjurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public-school enrollment for2007‐2017 are also included.The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s populationprojections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The population projections are used to derive school‐agepopulation (persons 5‐17 years of age) and projected births. These projections are then used in conjunctionwith a “grade succession” methodology to derive the ten‐year, grade‐specific enrollment projections.A preliminary set of enrollment projections along with supporting materials documenting the projectionmethodology were sent previously to each School Superintendent and facility planner.
Table of ContentsForeword . iExecutive Summary . 1Statewide Totals . 1Jurisdiction Trends . 6Long-Term Statewide Demographic Perspective . 8Births. 9Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration . 12Intra‐State Migration . 16Public/Private Enrollment Share. 16Trends and Projections in Public School Enrollment by Type . 17Total Public School Enrollment . 17Public Elementary School Enrollment (grades K through 5) . 17Public Middle School Enrollment (grades 6 through 8) . 18Public High School Enrollment (grades 9 through 12) . 19Jurisdiction Projections over the Next 10 Years. 21Total Enrollment . 21Elementary School Enrollment . 27Middle School Enrollment . 31High School Enrollment . 32Methodology . 39Population Projections . 39Grade Succession Projections . 39Organization of Detailed Data Tables . 43i
List of ChartsChart 1. Historical Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 2017 . 1Chart 2. Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027 . 2Chart 3. Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027. 3Chart 4. Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027 . 4Chart 5. Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 -2027. 5Chart 6. Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1970 - 2027 . 8Chart 7. Total Births in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1940 - 2022 . 9Chart 8. Cumulative Births by School Year in in Maryland Historical & Projected, 1970 - 2027. 10Chart 9. Annual Change in Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland, Historical & Projected, 1971 - 2027 . 11Chart 10. Annualized Net Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration into Maryland . 12Chart 11. Annualized Total Net Migration for Maryland . 13Chart 12. Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Change in Total Population, 2000 - 2017. 14Chart 13. Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 . 15Chart 14. Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 . 15Chart 15. Share of Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 and 2017 . 16Chart 16. Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027 . 18Chart 17. Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027 . 19Chart 18. Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027 . 20Chart 19. Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2017 - 2027 . 21Chart 20. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2017 - 2027. 26ii
List of TablesTable 1. Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for Maryland . 2Table 2. Summary of Historical and Projected Total Public School Enrollment for Maryland’s Jurisdictions. 7Table 3. Total Public School Enrollment (Grade K-12), By Jurisdiction, Actual (2017) & Projected (2018 – 2027) . 22Table 4. Cumulative Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) From Actual 2017, By Jurisdiction . 23Table 5. Cumulative Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) From Actual 2017, By Jurisdiction . 24Table 6. Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5), By Jurisdiction, Actual (2017) & Projected (2018-2027) . 28Table 7. Cumulative Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 29Table 8. Cumulative Percent Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 30Table 9. Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2017) & Projected (2018-2027) . 33Table 10. Cumulative Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 34Table 11. Cumulative Percent Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 35Table 12. Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2017) & Projected (2018-2027). 36Table 13. Cumulative Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 37Table 14. Cumulative Percent Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12) from Actual 2017, by Jurisdiction . 38iii
Appendix A: State of MarylandTotal (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017. A-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017 . A-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2007 - 2017 . A-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2017 and Projected 2018 - 2027 . A-4Ratio Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected . A-5Appendix B: Baltimore City and the CountiesBaltimore City . B-1Total (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017 . B-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017 . B-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2007 - 2017 . B-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2017 and Projected 2018 - 2027 . B-4Ratio Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected . B-5Grade Succession Ratios - Historical . B-6Allegany County . B-8Anne Arundel County . B-15Baltimore County . B-22Calvert County. B-29Caroline County. B-36Carroll County . B-43Cecil County . B-50Charles County . B-57Dorchester County . B-64Frederick County . B-71Garrett County . B-78Harford County . B-85iv
Howard County . B-92Kent County. B-99Montgomery County . B-106Prince George's County . B-113Queen Anne's County . B-120St. Mary's County . B-127Somerset County . B-134Talbot County . B-141Washington County. B-148Wicomico County . B-155Worcester County . B-162Appendix C: Summary of School Enrollment by JurisdictionTotal (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017. C-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2007 - 2017 . C-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2007 - 2017 . C-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2016 and Projected 2018 - 2027 . C-4v
Executive SummaryStatewide TotalsMaryland’s total public-school enrollment increased in 2017 for the ninth consecutive year: a student gain of7,954 (0.9%), the highest one-year increase (See Chart 1). Statewide, between 2008 and 2017, public-schoolenrollment has grown by nearly 46,000 or 5.6 percent. These gains are attributed in part to a smaller share ofstudents attending private schools as well as an increase in births in the last few years.Chart 1. Historical Annual Change in Total Public-School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 422,334-1,571200820112012* Grades K thru 12Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning20132014201520162017With gains over the last nine years (which followed five straight years of losses), Maryland’s 2017 publicschool enrollment of 862,867 is highest it has ever been since 1976. Since 2000, public school enrollmentpeaked in 2003 at 847,722 and declined every year for the next five years until 2008(816,963). This declinewas due mostly to smaller cumulative birth cohorts 1 as well as strong domestic out-migration in the early andmiddle part of the 2000s that were not fully compensated for by gains from foreign-born immigration.The Maryland Department of Planning projects that public-school enrollment would increase over the nextseven years. Most of that growth is expected to occur from 2018 to 2021 with moderate growth anticipatedfrom 2022 to 2024. (See Chart 2.) These smaller gains after 2021 are due to fewer births which occurredduring and after the Great Recession.Cumulative births are the sum of births for 13 consecutive years that would comprise the enrollment in the school system from K to12th grade.11
Chart 2. Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027Total public-school enrollment in 2027 is projected to be 898,090, or 35,223 (4.1%) more than in 2017. (SeeTable 1.) Total enrollments are projected to peak in 2027, the last year of the projection horizon.Table 1. Summary of Historical and Projected Public-School Enrollment for MarylandEnrollment by School Type for Selected 7PeakYearPeakTotalTotal Enrollment (K-12)818,534829,581Elementary (K-5)358,604388,944Middle (6-8)190,705183,902High (9-12)269,225256,735Change in Enrollment by School Type for 7 to20122012 to20172017 to20222022 to20272007 to2027Peak to2027Total Enrollment (K-12)Elementary (K-5)Middle (6-8)High Percent Change in Enrollment by School Type for Selected Years2
SchoolTotal Enrollment (K-12)Elementary (K-5)Middle (6-8)High (9-12)2007 to20122012 to20172017 to20222022 to20272007 to2027Peak 3.4%2.9%Source: Maryland Department of Education (2007, 2012 and 2017).Enrollment numbers are rounded to nearest tenth.Projections (2018-2027) prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning.Elementary school enrollment (grades K through 5) is projected to decline for the first five years of theprojection period, coinciding with the decline in births that happened during the end of last decade and thebeginning of the current decade. Growth resumes in 2023 and continues through 2027 (See Chart 3). For thenext ten years, elementary school enrollment in public schools is projected to increase by over 3,100 (0.8%).Chart 3. Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027Middle school enrollment (grades 6 through 8) is projected to grow between 2018 and 2020 and decline from2021 to 2025 and increase marginally in 2026 and 2027(See Chart 4). The projected growth over the nextthree years is a continuation of substantial gains that began in 2013 after declines in all but one year (2011)between 2004 and 2012. Enrollment for the 2018 to 2027 period is projected to increase by nearly 6,600(3.2%). The declining projected enrollments from 2021 to 2025 are mostly due to the lower births during theGreat Recession3
Chart 4. Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027High school enrollment (grades 9 through 12) is projected to be 25,550 (or 9.8%) higher in 2027 compared to2017, leading to a new peak total in 2024. High school enrollments are projected to decline in the last threeyears of the 10-year projection period. Growth is anticipated to be much more substantial beginning in 2018,aided by the raising of the age of compulsory public school attendance from age 16 to age 17 in 2015 and toage 18 in 2016-2017 years. 2 Growth will be strongest from 2017 through 2024, with a small part of thisincrease due to the final raising of the age of compulsory attendance to age 18 by 2017. (See Chart 5.)2This policy change is described further in the Methodology section.4
Chart 5. Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 -20275
Jurisdiction TrendsTen of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions are expected to have a larger enrollment in 2027 compared to 2017. Thelargest numeric increases are anticipated for Prince George’s (8,319), Howard (8,060), Montgomery(7,317), Anne Arundel (5,943), and Baltimore (5,725) counties, while the largest percentage increases areseen for Howard (14.5%), Dorchester (10.1%), Anne Arundel (7.4%) St. Mary’s (7.2%) and PrinceGeorge’s (6.5%) counties. (See Table 2.)Howard (2,538), Prince George’s (2,265), Frederick (849), Anne Arundel (537) and St. Mary’s (421)counties are expected to have the five largest numeric increases in elementary enrollment by the end of the10-year period. Seven jurisdictions are expected to have less elementary enrollment in 2027 than in 2017,with the largest decline in Baltimore City (-2,733, or -7.1%) followed by Harford (-695, or -4.2%) andBaltimore (-588, or -1.1%) counties.The largest percentage increases for elementary school enrollment are expected in Garrett (13.1%), Howard(10.1%) and Queen Anne’s (7.3%) counties.Prince George’s (2,301), Howard (1,804), Baltimore (1,541), Anne Arundel (1,327) and Montgomery(930) counties are expected to have the largest middle school enrollment gains over the next 10 years. Forall jurisdictions except Howard and St. Mary’s counties, middle school enrollment will peak before the endof the 10-year period. Four jurisdictions are expected to have lower middle school enrollment in 2027compared to 2017, with the largest percent decline projected for Carroll County (-485, or -8.3%).The largest percentage increases for middle school enrollment between 2017 and 2027 are anticipated forHoward (13.7%), St. Mary’s (11.4%) and Dorchester (11.0%) counties. Most of the jurisdictions wouldhave peak middle school enrollments before 2020.The five largest numeric increases in high school enrollment over the 10-year projection period are seen forMontgomery (6,281), Baltimore (4,772), Anne Arundel (4,079), Prince George’s (3,753) and Howard(3,718) counties. The largest high school enrollment gains will occur in the middle of the projection period.For four of the five jurisdictions with the largest increase, the bulk of the increases will be during the 2018 to2024, while Howard County is expected to have its highest high school enrollment in 2027. Fivejurisdictions are expected to have smaller high school enrollments at the end of the 10-year projection periodcompared to 2017, with the largest declines anticipated for Carroll County (-938, -11.2%).The largest percentage increases in high school enrollment are projected for Dorchester (25.5%), Howard(21.5%), Somerset (17.5%), Anne Arundel (17.6%), and Baltimore (15.1%) counties.6
Table 2. Summary of Historical and Projected Total Public-School Enrollment for Maryland’s ollment 4%Percent Change20172022202220273.4%0.7%Baltimore RegionAnne Arundel CountyBaltimore CountyCarroll CountyHarford CountyHoward CountyBaltimore %5.2%-4.9%-2.1%14.5%-4.6%Washington Suburban RegionFrederick CountyMontgomery CountyPrince George's .3%1.8%5.3%3.8%4.7%6.5%Southern MarylandCalvert CountyCharles CountySt. Mary's .2%Western MarylandAllegany CountyGarrett CountyWashington .6%-0.5%3.6%0.5%0.9%-1.5%1.6%1.7%Upper Eastern ShoreCaroline CountyCecil CountyKent CountyQueen Anne's CountyTalbot 1%0.8%-0.4%-0.2%-3.7%-0.6%-2.4%2.3%1.9%Lower Eastern ShoreDorchester CountySomerset CountyWicomico CountyWorcester %1.6%3.7%10.1%3.0%2.5%2.3%*Year in which enrollment is expected to peak during the 2018-2027 projection period. " ----" indicates no projected peak enrollment during the 2018-2027 projection period.Enrollment Numbers are rounded to nearesttenth.Source: Maryland Department of Education (2007 and 2017). Projections (2018-2027) from the Maryland Department of Planning.201720274.1%
Long-Term Statewide Demographic PerspectiveOver the last four decades Maryland’s public-school enrollment for elementary, middle and high schools hasexperienced both significant expansions and contractions. These patterns of growth and decline have beendriven by the State’s demographic changes: principally in the number of births and in the quantity anddirection of net migration.Chart 6 depicts Maryland’s historical and projected growth for total public-school enrollment, from 1970 to2027. Total public-school enrollment in Maryland experienced its low point in 1985 at 663,100 students andwill peak in 2027 at 862,867 students, a gain of 199,767, or 30.1 percent, over the 32-yea
jurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2007-2017 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The popu lation projections are used to derive school -age
jurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2008-2018 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The pop ulation projections are used to derive school -age
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