Public School Enrollment Projections 2019 -2028
Public SchoolEnrollment Projections2019 -2028August 2019
State of MarylandLarry HoganGovernorBoyd K. RutherfordLt. GovernorMaryland Department of PlanningRobert McCordSecretarySandra SchraderDeputy SecretaryMaryland Department of Planning 301 West Preston Street, Suite 1101Baltimore, Maryland 21201Tel: 410.767.4500 Toll Free: 1.877.767.6272TTY users: Maryland Relayplanning.maryland.govPublic School Enrollment Projections, 2019-2028August 2019 Publication No. 2019-001This Public School Enrollment Projections report was produced by the Projections and State Data Center ofthe Maryland Department of Planning as a service to local governments and planning officials.
ForewordThis report, Public School Enrollment Projections, 2019‐2028, is an update of the Maryland Department ofPlanning’s annual report on public school enrollment statistics.The report provides projections of public school enrollment through 2028 by grade for each of Maryland’sjurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public-school enrollment for2008‐2018 are also included.The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s populationprojections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The population projections are used to derive school‐agepopulation (persons 5‐17 years of age) and projected births. These projections are then used in conjunctionwith a “grade succession” methodology to derive the ten‐year, grade‐specific enrollment projections.A preliminary set of enrollment projections and supporting materials documenting the projectionmethodology were sent previously to each School Superintendent and facility planner.
Table of ContentsForeword . iExecutive Summary . 1Statewide Totals . 1Jurisdiction Trends . 6Long-Term Statewide Demographic Perspective . 8Births. 9Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration . 12Intra‐State Migration . 17Public/Private Enrollment Share. 17Trends and Projections in Public School Enrollment by Type . 18Total Public School Enrollment . 18Public Elementary School Enrollment (grades K through 5) . 18Public Middle School Enrollment (grades 6 through 8) . 19Public High School Enrollment (grades 9 through 12) . 20Jurisdiction Projections over the Next 10 Years. 22Total Enrollment . 22Elementary School Enrollment . 28Middle School Enrollment . 32High School Enrollment . 36Methodology . 40Population Projections . 40Grade Succession Projections . 40Organization of Detailed Data Tables . 44i
List of ChartsChart 1 - Historical Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 2018 . 1Chart 2 - Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028. 2Chart 3- Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 . 3Chart 4- Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018-2028 . 4Chart 5- Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 . 5Chart 6- Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland Historical and Projected, 1970 - 2028. 8Chart 7- Total Births in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1940 - 2024 . 9Chart 8- Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland Historical & Projected, 1970 - 2028 . 10Chart 9- Annual Change in Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland, Historical & Projected, 1971 - 2028 . 11Chart 10- Average Annual Net Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration into Maryland . 12Chart 11- Average Total Net Migration for Maryland by decade . 13Chart 12- Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Change in Total Population, 2000 - 2017 . 14Chart 13- Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 . 15Chart 14- Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2018. 16Chart 15- Share of Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 and 2018 . 17Chart 16- Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 . 19Chart 17- Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 . 20Chart 18- Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 . 21Chart 19- Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2018 – 2028 . 22Chart 20- Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2018 – 2028 . 27ii
List of TablesTable 1- Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for Maryland. 2Table 2 - Summary of Historical and Projected Total Public School Enrollment for Maryland's Jurisdictions . 7Table 3- Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) By Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) . 23Table 4- Cumulative Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction. 24Table 5- Cumulative Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12), by Jurisdiction . 25Table 6- Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) . 29Table 7- Cumulative Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction 30Table 8- Cumulative Percent Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5), by Jurisdiction. 31Table 9- Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) . 33Table 10- Cumulative Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction . 34Table 11- Cumulative Percent Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8), by Jurisdiction . 35Table 12- Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12), By Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) . 36Table 13- Cumulative Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction . 38Table 14- Cumulative Percent Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12), by Jurisdiction . 39iii
Appendix A: State of MarylandTotal (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018. A-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 . A-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018 . A-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 . A-4Ratio Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected . A-5Appendix B: Baltimore City and the CountiesBaltimore City . B-1Total (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 . B-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 . B-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018 . B-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 . B-4Ratio of Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected . B-5Grade Succession Ratios - Historical . B-6Allegany County . B-8Anne Arundel County . B-15Baltimore County . B-22Calvert County. B-29Caroline County. B-36Carroll County . B-43Cecil County . B-50Charles County . B-57Dorchester County . B-64Frederick County . B-71Garrett County . B-78Harford County . B-85iv
Howard County . B-92Kent County. B-99Montgomery County . B-106Prince George's County . B-113Queen Anne's County . B-120St. Mary's County . B-127Somerset County . B-134Talbot County . B-141Washington County. B-148Wicomico County . B-155Worcester County . B-162Appendix C: Summary of School Enrollment by JurisdictionTotal (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018. C-1Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 . C-2Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018 . C-3Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 . C-4v
Executive SummaryStatewide TotalsMaryland’s total public-school enrollment increased in 2018 for the tenth consecutive year: a student gain of2,624 (0.7%), but the increase was the second lowest in the last ten years, (See Chart 1). Statewide, between2008 and 2018, public-school enrollment has grown by about 48,500 or 5.9 percent. These gains areattributed in part to a smaller share of students attending private schools as well as an increase in births inthe last few years.Chart 1 - Historical Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 2018 4-1,57120082009201020112012* Grades K thru 12Prepared by the Maryland Department of PlanningSource: Maryland State Department of Education201320142015201620172018With gains over the last ten years (which followed five straight years of losses), Maryland’s 2018 publicschool enrollment of 865,491 is its highest since 1976. Since 2000, public school enrollment peaked in 2003at 847,722 and declined every year for the next five years until 2008 (816,963). This decline was due mostlyto smaller cumulative birth cohorts 1 as well as strong domestic out-migration in the early and middle part ofthe 2000s that were not fully compensated for by gains from foreign immigration.The Maryland Department of Planning projects that public-school enrollment would increase over the nextseven years. Most of that growth is expected to occur from 2019 to 2022 with moderate growth anticipatedfrom 2023 to 2024. (See Chart 2.) These smaller gains after 2022 are due to fewer births which occurredCumulative births are the sum of births for 13 consecutive years that would comprise the enrollment in the school system from K to12th grade.11
during and after the Great Recession.Chart 2 - Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 182019202020212022202320242025-1,000*Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 data for Grades K thru 12Source: Maryland State Department of Education and Maryland Department of Planning202620272028Total public-school enrollment in 2028 is projected to be 895,450, or 29,959 (3.5%) more than in 2018. (SeeTable 1.) Total enrollments are projected to peak in 2028, the last year of the projection horizon.Table 1- Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for MarylandEnrollment by School Type for Selected YearsSchoolTotal Enrollment (K-12)Elementary (K-5)Middle (6-8)High 86,971201,817Change in Enrollment by School Type for Selected YearsSchoolTotal Enrollment (K-12)Elementary (K-5)Middle 9,7702008 to2013 to2018 to2023 to2018 toPeak 083,11304,840
High (9-12)-13,9457,94828,778-4,64024,1386,9502008 to2013 to2018 to2023 to2018 toPeak .7%1.5%9.2%0.0%0.0%2.4%2.4%Percent Change in Enrollment by School Type for Selected YearsSchoolTotal Enrollment (K-12)Elementary (K-5)Middle (6-8)High (9-12)Source: Maryland State Department of Education (2008, 2013 and 2018).Enrollment numbers are rounded to nearest tenth.Projections (2019-2028) prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning.Elementary school enrollment (grades K through 5) is projected to decline for the first five years of theprojection period, coinciding with the decline in births that happened during the end of last decade and thebeginning of the current decade. Growth resumes in 2023 and continues through 2028 (See Chart 3). For thenext ten years, elementary school enrollment in public schools is projected to increase by over 2,700 (0.7%).Chart 3- Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary SchoolEnrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 *210-3,0852018-3,7422019-1,1702020101,840 rical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 data for Grades K thru 5Source: Maryland State Department of Education and Maryland Department of Planning3202620272028
Middle school enrollment (grades 6 through 8) is projected to grow between 2018 and 2020 and decline from2021 to 2025 and increase marginally in 2026 and 2027 before falling again in 2028 (See Chart 4). Projectedgrowth over the next three years is a continuation of substantial gains that began in 2013 after declines in allbut one year (2011) between 2004 and 2012. Enrollment for the 2019 to 2028 period is projected to increaseby over 3,100 (1.5%). The declining projected enrollments from 2021 to 2025 are mostly due to the lowerbirths during the Great Recession.Chart 4- Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, -2,2702022-1,650 -1,340202320241,710-580-8402025*Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 data for Grades 6 thru 8Source: Maryland State Department of Education and Maryland Department of Planning202620272028High school enrollment (grades 9 through 12) is projected to be 24,138 (9.2%) higher in 2028 compared to2018, with a peak total occurring in 2024. High school enrollments are projected to decline in the last year ofthe ten-year projection period. Growth is anticipated to be more substantial beginning in 2019, aided byraising of the age of compulsory public school attendance from age 16 to age 17 in 2015 and to age 18 in2016-2017 years. 2 Growth will be strongest from 2019 through 2024, with a small part of this increase due tothe final raising of the age of compulsory attendance to age 18 by 2017. (See Chart 5.)2This policy change is described further in the Methodology section.4
Chart 5- Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2019202020212022202320242025-2,650*Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 data for Grades 9 thru 12Source: Maryland State Department of Education and Maryland Department of Planning52026-2,5102027-7102028
Jurisdiction TrendsTen of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions are expected to have a larger enrollment in 2028 compared to 2018. Thelargest numeric increases are anticipated for Prince George’s (8,536), Howard (6,500), Montgomery(5,109), Anne Arundel (6,337), and Baltimore (4,409) counties, while the largest percentage increases areseen for Howard (11.5%), Dorchester (10.2%), Anne Arundel (7.8%), Prince George’s (6.7%) counties.and Charles (6.2%) counties (See Table 2.)Prince George’s (3,205), Howard (1,607), Frederick (1,076), Anne Arundel (902) and Queen Anne’s (489)counties are expected to have the five largest numeric increases in elementary enrollment by the end of theten-year period. Nine jurisdictions are expected to have less elementary enrollment in 2028 than in 2018,with the largest decline in Baltimore City (-3,339, or -9.0%) followed by Montgomery (-1,817, or -2.5%),Harford (-496, or -3.0%), Baltimore (-252, or -0.5%), Caroline (-184 or -7.2%), Allegany (-130 or -3.4%),Worcester (-164 or -5.7%), Wicomico (-101 or -1.4%) , and Calvert (-42 or -0.6%) counties,The largest percentage increases for elementary school enrollment are expected in Queen Anne’s (14.7%),Garrett (9.7%), Talbot (7.5%) and Howard (6.3%) counties.Prince George’s (1,197), Howard (1,702), Baltimore (1,021), Anne Arundel (1,594) and Montgomery(692) counties are expected to have the largest middle school enrollment gains over the next 10 years. Forall jurisdictions except Howard and Anne Arundel counties, middle school enrollment will peak before theend of the 10-year period. Thirteen jurisdictions are expected to have lower middle school enrollment in2028 compared to 2018, with the largest decline projected for Baltimore City ( -1998, or -11.7%) and largestpercent decline in Kent County (-66, or -15.9%).The largest percentage increases for middle school enrollment between 2018 and 2028 are anticipated forHoward (12.7%) and Anne Arundel (8.5%) counties. Middle school enrollments will have peaked in most ofthe jurisdictions before 2021.The five largest numeric increases in high school enrollment, over the projection period, are in Montgomery(6,234), Prince George’s (4,134), Anne Arundel (3,841), Baltimore (3,640), and Howard (3,191) counties.The largest high school enrollment gains will occur in the middle of the projection period. In four of the fivejurisdictions with the largest increase, the bulk of the increases will occur between 2018 and 2024 whileHoward County is expected to have its highest high school enrollment in 2028. Five jurisdictions areexpected to have smaller high school enrollments at the end of the 10-year projection period compared to2018, with the largest declines anticipated for Carroll County (-730, -8.8%).The largest percentage increases in high school enrollment are projected for Dorchester (25.0%), Howard(18.0%), Anne Arundel (16.4%), Montgomery (12.6%) and Charles (11.6%) counties.6
Table 2 - Summary of Historical and Projected Total Public School Enrollment for Maryland's llment NumbersActualProjected2008201820232028816,963 865,491 891,360 895,450Baltimore RegionAnne Arundel CountyBaltimore CountyCarroll CountyHarford CountyHoward CountyBaltimore 8---Southern MarylandCalvert CountyCharles CountySt. Mary's 20242023--202020282028Washington Suburban RegionFrederick CountyMontgomery CountyPrince George's CountyWestern MarylandAllegany CountyGarrett CountyWashington CountyUpper Eastern ShoreCaroline CountyCecil CountyKent CountyQueen Anne's CountyTalbot CountyLower Eastern ShoreDorchester CountySomerset CountyWicomico CountyWorcester 848,528Change2018- 20232023202825,869 3655,1098,536200820185.9%Percent Change2018- 2023202320283.0%0.5%2018202829,959 ear in which enrollment is expected to peak during the 2019-2028 projection period. " ----" indicates no projected peak enrollment during the 2019-2028 projection period.Enrollment Numbers are rounded to nearest tenth.Source: Maryland State Department of Education (2008 and 2018). Projections (2019-2028) from Maryland Department of %1.7%2.1%10.2%3.3%0.1%0.3%
Long-Term Statewide Demographic PerspectiveOver the last four decades Maryland’s public-school enrollment for elementary, middle and hig
jurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2008-2018 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The pop ulation projections are used to derive school -age
jurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2007-2017 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The popu lation projections are used to derive school -age
Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario . 100 Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 101 Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 103
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