Wm Wrigley Jr. Company Equity Valuation And Analysis

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Wm Wrigley Jr. Company Equity Valuation andAnalysisValued November 1, 2007Dr. MEM AnalystsAlan InmanJonathan HaralsonMark LeonardPete NashShane 1

Table of ContentsExecutive Summary5Business & Industry Analysis10Company Overview10Industry Overview11Five Forces Model13Competitive Force One – Rivalry Among Existing Firms13Competitive Force Two – Threat of New Entrants18Competitive Force Three – Threat of Substitute Products20Competitive Force Four – Bargaining Power of Buyers21Competitive Force Five – Bargaining Power of Suppliers23Value Chain Analysis24Firm Competitive Analysis27Accounting Analysis30Key Accounting Policies30Potential Accounting Flexibility35Actual Accounting Strategy37Quality of Disclosure39Sales Manipulation Diagnostics412

Expense Manipulation Diagnostics46Potential Red Flags53Undo Accounting Distortions54Financial Analysis55Liquidity Ratio Analysis55Profitability Analysis64Capital Structure Analysis71IGR and SGR Analysis76Financial Statement Forecasting78Income Statement Analysis78Forecasted Income Statement80Common Size Income Statement80Balance Sheet Analysis81Forecasted Balance Sheet84Common Size Balance Sheet86Forecasted Statement of Retained Earnings87Statement of Cash Flows Analysis88Forecasted Statement of Cash Flows89Common Size Statement of Cash Flows90Cost of EquityRegression Analysis9192Cost of Debt93Weighted Average Cost of Capital943

Valuation Analysis96Method of Comparables97Intrinsic Valuations102Discount Dividends Model103Free Cash Flows Model105Residual Income Model107Long Run Residual Income110Abnormal Earnings Growth Model114Analyst Recommendation116Appendix117Liquidity Analysis Data117Profitability Analysis Data118Capital Structure Analysis Data119Regression Analysis120Method of Comparables132Intrinsic Valuation Models133References1384

Executive SummaryInvestment RecommendationWWY-NYSE(11/ 1/ 2007)52 Week RangeRevenueMarket CapShares OutstandingPercent Institutional OwnershipBook Value per ShareROEROACost of 00010.00020.00020Published BetaKd(BT)WACC(BT)Overvalued, 0.06750.06830.06940.07080.534.48%5.68%Altman Z-scoreValuation EstimatesActual Price (11/ 1/ 2007)Financial Based ValuationsTrailing P/ EForward P/ EP.E.G.P/ BP/ EBITDAP/ FCFEV/ EBITDAD/ PIntrinsic ValuationsDiscount DividendsFree Cash FlowsResidual IncomeLRResidual IncomeAEGNovember 1 20072002 200316.52 14.522004 2005 200615.08 7.48 6.3560.1948.4239.56N/ A79.6771.09N/ A28.5328.4643.8333.5425.1882.82http:/ / moneycentral.msn.com/5

Recommendation – SellIndustry AnalysisThe Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company was founded in Delaware in 1891 by WilliamWrigley, Jr. It became a corporation in 1903 where it moved its corporate headquartersto Chicago Illinois. Wrigley Jr. Company competes in the confection industry with anemphasis on chewing gum. Wrigley began with two gum brands, spearmint and juicyfruit and has since become the words number one manufacture of chewing and bubblegum. The company distributes to over 180 countries and has 15,800 employeesworldwide. The Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company is a publically traded company on the NewYork Stock Exchange under the symbol, WWY.Wrigley’s competitors include Hershey Co. (HSY), Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) andTootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR). Competition among firms in the confection Industry isrelatively high, because of amount of substitute products in the market. Threat of newentrants is low in the confection industry. New firms have trouble competing formarket share due to poor brand image which is a key success factor in the industry.New entrants also have a hard time competing on price due to their low economies ofscale, as compared with existing firm’s large economies of scale. Bargaining power ofthe customer is high in the industry. With so many similar products on the marketprice sensitivity and relative bargaining power is high in the industry. Suppliersbargaining power in the confection industry on the other hand are low. Because of thelarge number of suppliers, the commodities used to make chewing gum are readilyavailable in the open market. Which gives manufactures power over price due tosupplier competition. Successful firms in the industry put emphasis on investment inbrand image and innovation. Other competitive advantages include product variety andquality, economies of scale and low-cost distribution.6

Accounting AnalysisThe purpose of accounting analysis is to evaluate how well a firm’s accountingpractices reflect its true value. GAAP has given manages the ability to be flexible incertain areas of reporting a firm’s financials. This flexibility can be used my managers todisguise a firm’s true value from potential investors. Through the use of accountinganalysis, investors can more easily spot areas of distortion. By identifying key areas ofdistortion within a firm’s 10-k report, and undoing these distortions, analyst can thenget a better picture of a firm’s true value. If a firm wants to be profitable it must linkkey success factors with key accounting policies. One of Wrigley’s key success factorsis innovation so accounting for investment in research and development becomes asignificant accounting policy for Wrigley.Quality of disclosure relates to how transparent a firm reports its financials. Wefound Wrigley’s reports to be somewhat transparent, with the exception of their capitaland operating leases, which was not clearly disclosed in the 10-k. When analyzing afirm’s financials, analyst must look for “red flags”. Red flags are areas of questionableaccounting and must be look at more closely. Through the use of ratio analysisinvestors can pinpoint potential red flag areas. The first potential red flag was Wrigley’sasset turnover ratio when compared to that of the industry. Wrigley’s ratio has been onthe decline over the last couple years where as the confectionary industry sales havebeen growing. Another red flag we found when analyzing Wrigley’s was their goodwill,which when compared to that of its competitors was rather high. More goodwilltranslates to more assets which in turn would raise the overall value of a firm,something a manager would be inclined to do. The last red flag found pertained to thedisclosure of Wrigley’s capital and operation leases. When looking at Wrigley’s 10-K wewere unable to find detailed information on how they account for and calculate theirleases. The lack of information on Wrigley’s methods for calculating leases makesundoing the accounting distortions improbable.7

Financial Analysis, Forecasted Financials, and Cost of Capital EstimationIn order to accurately break down companies’ financial statements, analysts havecreated a multitude of ratios in order to help evaluate a company. Once their financialsare broken down into these ratios, analysts can compare it to competitors within thesame industry. These ratios accurately evaluate a company’s liquidity, profitability, andcapital structure. These comparisons can help determine if a specific company isperforming at the same level as firms in the same industry. These ratios can then beused to forecast a company’s future performance. These forecasts are not completelyaccurate but they set a good benchmark on what a company can expect if theirperformance continues to perform at the level it is now. Forecasted financial statementsare also used to help find the value of the firm. The regression analysis helps determinean accurate beta which can be used to calculate cost of equity for a firm. Wrigley’sregression results yielded a low r squared adjusted so a different approach was needed.A firm having a low r squared adjusted says that little to now risk for the firm isexplained systematically. Cost of debt is calculated by taking the weighted average costof each firm’s liability multiplied by the corresponding interest rate for each line item.By using the financial ratios in order to compare to Wrigley’s direct competitors,we can see that Wrigley’s is performing at a level similar to the industry average.However, it is seen that Wrigley’s is not as liquid as some of the other firms in theindustry, meaning it takes a longer time to turn inventory into cash. By using thefinancial ratios we also see that Wrigley’s is a profitable company. They have thehighest gross profit margin in the industry and are on the leading side of the return onassets (ROA).Forecasting the firm’s financials will help to value the company. Line items fromthe Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Statement of Cash flows were forecasted 10years out based on 5 previous year’s data. Net Sales from Income Statement wereforecasted with a 13.33% growth rate. Asset Turnover and change in retainedearnings helped forecast the Balance Sheet. Net Earnings as a percent of cash flow8

from operations and change in long-term assets were used in forecasting statement ofcash flows.ValuationsIs the stock price of a company really what the company is valued at? Fromusing valuations one can figure out the true answer of this question. Once the financialanalysis and forecasting is figured, an analyst can use these numbers to see howaccurately priced a stock is. These valuations show if a firm is overvalued, undervalued,or fairly valued.The fastest and easiest way to determine the actual value of a company is themethod of comparables. By using this method you compare a company to the value ofthose within the industry. From these valuations you can get a good idea of what thefirm is valued at however it is not always as accurate as some of the other valuationsmodels, and therefore should not be used as the only method of valuation. From usingthe method of comparables with Wrigley, we have seen that Wrigley’s can range fromsignificantly overvalued to undervalued.Along with the method of comparables, one must use the Intrinsic Values todetermine the true value of a firm. One method for this is the Discount DividendsModel. However, because of the inaccuracies with this method, it is not the best way tovalue a company. The best way to determine the value of a company is by using theResidual Income Model as well as the Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG) model. Onceused, it is seen that Wrigley’s is an undervalued company. The Residual Income modelshows that Wrigley’s is valued at only 33.54, where as the market cost of the stock is 60.19. The long run method of Residual Income is similar to the Residual Incomemodel. However, it uses a perpetuity. When using the Long Run Residual Income,Wrigley’s was valued at only 25.18, which is significantly below what the stated valuewas. After using the valuation models it is evident that Wrigley’s is severely overvalued.9

Business and Industry AnalysisCompany Overview“The Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company chews up the competition as the world's #1maker of chewing and bubble gum.”(hoovers) Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company (WWY) wasoriginally founded in Delaware as a partnership in 1891 by William Wrigley, Jr. It thenbecame a corporation in 1903 based out of Illinois. The Wrigley’s company has beenfamily ran up until recently when William D. Perez became president, CEO, and director.As of today, William Wrigley Jr. Co. corporate headquarters is located in Chicago,Illinois.Wrigley’s original two brands were Juicy Fruit and Wrigley’s Spearmint. It nowowns a considerable more amount of brands. Doublemint, Big Red, Winterfresh, Extra,Freedent, Hubba Bubba, Orbit and Excel are all brand names owned by Wrigley’s.Along with chewing gum, Wrigley’s offers mints, breath strips, and candies. Altoids,Crème Savers, Life Savers and Velamints are all brand names under Wrigley’s.The Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company is a publically traded company in the New YorkStock Exchange. It is traded under the symbol, WWY. As of 2006, Wrigley’s distributesto over 180 countries and has 15,800 employees worldwide. The companymanufactures gum and other confectionary products in four factories in the UnitedStates and fifteen factories globally. Wrigley’s manufacturing and marketing of gumequates to 90% of its business. Furthermore, chewing gum accounts for 63% of itsproduct unit sales in the United States. “The Company markets chewing gum and otherconfectionery products primarily through distributors, wholesalers, corporate chains andcooperative buying groups that distribute the product through retail outlets” (WWY2006 10-K report)Mars, Inc, Tootsie Roll (TR), and Hershey Co. (HSY) are Wrigley’s topcompetitors. Mars, Inc is a privately owned company. Tootsie Roll (TR) has a marketcap of 1.32 billion (YAHOO! Finance). Hershey Co. (HSY) has a market cap of 10.38billion (YAHOO! Finance). Wrigley’s market cap is 16.93 billion. (YAHOO! Finance)10

Wrigley’s competes with Mars, Incorporated with candy. Mars Incorporated makespopular brand candy bars such as Snickers, M&M, and the Mars Bar.* http://moneycentral.msn.comIndustry OverviewThe confectioners industry is comprised of 93 companies. In North America, theindustry has a 29 Billion market capitalization. Wrigley’s with 16.9 Billion marketcapitalization and Hershey’s Co. with a 10.4 Billion market capitalization comprise 94%of the industry in North America. Globally, Mars, Inc and Cadbury Schweppes comeinto to the picture. However, in North America, Wrigley’s and Hershey Co dominate theindustry closely followed by Tootsie Roll.There are many variables a company must consider if it wants to perform well inthe confectioners industry. A company must look at growth of alternative storeformats, technological advances, new industry techniques, and product and packinginnovations.(WWY 2006 10-K report) Innovation is vitally important. Companies mustalso compete on well-recognized brands, varied product offerings, strong brandmanagement, and a strong distribution network. (WWY 2006 10-K report)There are 10 retail categories in the confectioners industry. They are misc.snacks, coffee, bakery snack, ice cream, cereal, milk, gum/candy, salty snacks, dry fruit11

snacks, and carbonated beverages. Wrigley’s operates specifically in the gum/candyindustry.*Numbers for graph have come from 10-K reports on Wrigley’s and Hershey Co. alongwith 2006 Annual Report on Cadbury Schweppes.Over the past 5 years, Wrigley’s sales volume has increased remarkablywell. Hershey Co. still has a great overall sales volume, but Wrigley’s is not as farbehind as it once was.12

Five Forces ModelThe Five Forces Model was developed by Michael Porter in 1979 as a tool toanalyze and classify an industry as well as identify profit potential areas in an industry.The model uses five forces of the industry to help identify three major aspects of anindustry; competition, profitability, and attractiveness of the industry. Rivalry amongexisting firms, threats of new entrants, and threat of substitute products are threeforces used in the model to analyze the competition of a firm. The last two forces areused to determine the bargaining power of the buyers and suppliers and how theseforces are used to help a company make a profit. This model is an easy way forstrategists to make a framework in a firm’s strategic position.Rivalry Among Existing FirmsHighThreat of New EntrantsLowThreat of Substitute ProductsHighBargaining Power of BuyersHighBargaining Power of SuppliersLowCompetitive Force One: Rivalry Among Existing Firms(High)Rivalry among existing firms in the confectionery industry is very high. Existingcompanies are always trying to gain market share from their competitors. A few wayscompanies try to gain ground upon other companies is by creating new products,changing existing products, or marketing with special offers. Factors that a firm mustconsider in the industry are the concentration within the industry, how each firmdifferentiates its products, switching costs that may come in play, the scale ofeconomies, fixed costs and variable costs, excess capacity each firm may have, and ifthere are any barriers to prevent leaving the industry.13

Industry growthIndustry Growth is defined as the rate at which an industry is growing in relationto the total market. Industry growth is an important factor when determining the levelof competition in an industry. Typically, when an industry is having rapid growth, thereis no need for firms to try to take market share from their competitors. Although, whenthe industry is stagnant in growth, it is critical for firms to take market share fromcompetitors to stay competitive within the industry. In the confectionary industry, thegrowth is consistently increasing, however, at a fairly slow pace. The gum and candyindustry is dominated by a small handful of companies; Wrigley, Cadbury Schweppes,Hershey, Tootsie Roll and Mars. The companies within the industry put their focusbuilding their reputation and image to gain as many customers possible.ConcentrationThe number of firms in an industry is critical when looking at the concentration.However many firms are in the industry and the relative sizes of those firms in theindustry determines the degree of concentration in that industry. Concentration is akey determinant to whether an industry is severely competitive on prices or not. Anindustry dominated by one firm can make and enforce the rules of competition. Whenan industry is dominated by a couple firms, they will usually cooperate with each otherin this area to keep the price war at a minimum. When an industry has an equalbalance among firms, prices are a large part of the competition.As discussed in the previous section, the gum and candy industry is dominatedby Wrigley, Cadbury Schweppes, Hershey, and Mars. While the industry is dominated bythese four firms, they still do not have an equal share of the market; therefore, pricecompetition is a large factor. The gum and candy industry only has 93 firms total whichmakes it highly concentrated. You can see in the following pie graph that Wrigley has47% of the market share in the gum and candy industry alone.14

Differentiation and Switching CostsDifferentiation is defined as the degree to which a firm can differentiate itsproducts and thus avoid possible competition. Switching costs are defined as the costto switch to a different product or industry. The higher the switching cost, the harder itwould be to make a switch. An industry that features firms providing similar products,the firms must take the initiative to differentiate their products to become moreattractive to the customers. With this in mind, a switching cost is an expense of thecustomer for switching from one product of firm to another. The customers in the gumand candy industry can switch from one firm’s product to another with little thought atall. Since this is the case, each firm must put a large emphasis on research anddevelopment to differentiate its products and to improve the reputation of their brandname. Also, the low switching costs cause a greater price competition since thecustomers will have a greater incentive to switch products purely based on price.15

Scale/Learning EconomiesSize of a company is very important in determining how they will perform. Thelarger the company the larger the influence they have on the market. Larger companiesin an industry often can offer lower prices because their size often is a determinant inhow much suppliers will sell materials for. In North America, the Confectioners industryis dominated by Wrigley’s and Hershey Co. This size advantage has helped themcontinue to be the leader in sales within the confectionary industry.As you can see from the chart above, Wrigley’s total assets have more thandoubled in the past 5 years marking significant growth. Hershey Co. has also hadgrowth in their total assets, but its growth rate has been much smaller. The growth inHershey’s and Wrigley’s has given them the advantage over other companies in NorthAmerica. Having this advantage gives little competition between other companies in theindustry, however there is a very competitive price battle between them.16

Fixed- Variable CostsFixed costs are defined as a cost that does not vary depending on production orsales levels. Variable costs are defined as a cost of labor, material or overhead thatvaries depending on the volume of production and sales levels. Each firm mustexamine the ratio of their fixed costs versus their variable costs. If the ratio betweenfixed costs and variable costs is high, the firm must reduce prices. The fixed to variablecost ratio is low in the gum and candy industry. The main two fixed costs that must beincurred are leases for the manufacturing plants and the salaries for the employees.Most of the manufacturing plants are owned in the industry. Firms do lease somebuildings in other countries. For example, a company may lease a property in Mexico,this property will be considered a fixed cost because of the annual or monthly paymentthey must make in order to occupy the property, as opposed to a property that theymay own in the United States which is already paid off. Of course, companies have topay their employees as a fixed cost. Regardless of how the company does in revenue,the salaries of the employees do not change. Variable costs in the confectionaryindustry can consist of ingredients, power expenses for production, shipping costs, andpackaging costs. These are all variable costs because the total a company pays for thisdepends on production.Excess Capacity and Exit BarriersExcess capacity is simply when supply is greater than demand. Excess capacitycan be a problem because a firm will be forced to lower prices just to get enough salesto cover fixed costs they must incur. The larger companies in the industry are able tohandle excess capacity better than firms that must keep their prices high to cover fixedcosts. Excess capacity can be a problem that will be too difficult to solve for a smallercompany in that situation that forces them to shut down their business.Exit barriers are obstacles that keep a firm within an industry. Exit barriers caninclude legal obligations and having liabilities that cannot be disposed of, such asleases. The gum and candy industry does not have many exit barriers because if a17

company does not generate enough revenue, they can either merge with anotherexisting company or just sell their operations all together since most of the companiesown their own manufacturing plants.ConclusionIn the confectionary industry, competition between existing firms is very high.Competition of these firms ranges from the large variety of products as well as size ofthe companies and ability to get their name out to the customers. Companies in thisindustry are constantly developing new products to release into the market whichcreates competition to become the leader in innovation as well as cost and sales.Competitive Force Two: Threats of New Entrants (Low)The confectionary industry is a fairly hard industry to start in. Existing companiesalready hold a large market share of the industry, which make it hard for smallercompanies to become larger. Much of the industry sales come from brand recognitionwhich make it hard for small companies because the consumer does not know theirbrand name.Scale EconomiesWith the large capacities of the big firms in the industry, it makes smallercompanies have a harder time because they cannot compete both with prices andoutput. When the smaller companies have a smaller output it costs the company moreto develop their product. Firms in the confectionary industry are always competing onprice and innovation which makes it hard for small companies to keep up. Because ofthis competition small companies struggle to both have the large amount of output andlow price of supplies to make the new products.18

First-Mover AdvantageFirst-mover advantage is defined as a possible advantage being gained as aresult for being first into a new industry. This advantage can sometimes beinsurmountable. Industry benchmarks and standards can be set. Also, possiblearrangements could possibly be made with suppliers for materials. Being a first-moverin the confectionary industry is fairly important. The large companies that make up themajority of the market have been around for many years and have a strong hold on theresource needed to be a major competitor. The average startup year of the largestcompanies in the industry is around 1900, giving these companies a large advantage inthe industry. This has helped the large companies build a strong consumer base as wellas giving them an unbeatable reputation. As well as being able to have a long-standingreputation the market they have also had the advantage of having the resources to stayon top and continue to stay on top.Distribution Access and RelationshipsDistribution Access is defined as the ability for a firm to come into an industryand compete. If there are high costs in order to be able to make the relationshipsnecessary in that firm to do business, then this can be a formidable barrier into theindustry. Distribution access is a strong barrier to new entrants trying to make a namein the confectionary industry. Relationships with both suppliers and sellers areimportant to firms so they can have the best access to new products as well as the bestaccess to buyers of the products. New entrants to this industry can often find thisdifficult due to the fact suppliers and sellers may be weary of having their nameassociated with an unknown company.ConclusionWith the threat of new competitors being low, this gives companies in theindustry a strong advantage. They do not have to worry about new up and comingcompanies coming into the picture. Even though this makes for little competitive force19

outside of the industry, it makes for strong competition already existing in the industry.As seen in this section, new companies just do not have the resources or size tocompete with the existing industry as well as the relationships with suppliers anddistributers to be able to make a run at being a competitor in the industry.Competitive Force Three: Threat of Substitute Products (High)The threat of substitute products is a large concern for the confectionaryindustry. Companies are always thinking of new products to put on the market so theycan out-do their competitors. Product substitutes such as, new flavors, new packaging,and new looks are all ways to make a substitute for existing products. Because of thisthe threat, innovation is key to staying on top of the competition as well as gainingexcitement with consumers.Relative Price and PerformanceHow a firm is performing and how a firm prices their products against itscompetitors is a key part of a firm’s success. Consumers are always looking for the newbest thing. Along with being the new thing, consumers are also shopping on price.Because of these two things companies must always be making the best tasting productat the lowest price. Performance in the confectionary industry can be measured in acouple of ways: flavor and innovation. Firms also compete on price with existingproducts. Keeping costs low on older products is important in the eyes of the consumer.Consumers are going to buy the product that is not only the best but the cheapest. Thiskeeps competition high in this market.Buyers Willingness to SwitchA buyer’s willingness to switch is defined as a buyer’s motivation to make a switchunder a certain circumstance. With the amount of products being sold in the candy andgum industry, buyers are constantly switching to find the best tasting product. Becauseof this, competition is very strong to get the customer to try your product and to keepeating your product. One way to help capture the buyer is by advertisement.20

Companies are constantly making new billboards, commercials, and print ads to capturethe buyers’ attention so that they may switch to using their company. Name brandingalso plays an important role in this because smaller companies have a harder time atselling their product because the buyers may not recognize the name or know anythingabout their quality of product.ConclusionThe threat of new products is a very large threat in the confectionary industry.Companies are always coming out with new products and trying new things to improveold products. This keeps competition high in this industry. If a company fails to createnew products they will experience a loss not only in sales but in any edge they had inthe market on innovation.Competitive Force Four: Bargaining Powers of Buyers (High)A firm’s profits are greatly influenced by its bargaining power over its suppliersand customers. The two key factors that determine the degree of power of the buyersare: Price Sensitivity and Relative Bargaining Power.Price SensitivityThe first is price sensitivity, which deals with how far the customers are willingto bargain on price. Customers in the confectionary industry include both merchantsand actual consumers. Merchants want to purchase the products at the lowest pricepossible so that they can turn around and sell the product and make a maximum profiton the sale. Consumers will in turn look for the best bargain in the merchants whichcreates two levels of price competition. If products within an industry areundifferentiated then prices are more sensitive. Firms must have a goal of maintaininglow costs. Given that many firms in the industry have the same products, gum andcandy; they are forced to compete on price. Higher price sensitivity leads to higherbargaining power for the buyer.21

Relative Bargaining PowerThe second factor in determining buyer power is relative bargaining power. Abuyer’s bargaining power is determined by the number of customers. Also, the numberof substitutes and the ease of availability to get those products determine rel

The Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company was founded in Delaware in 1891 by William Wrigley, Jr. It became a corporation in 1903 where it moved its corporate headquarters to Chicago Illinois. Wrigley Jr. Company competes in the confection industry with an emphasis on chewing gum. Wrigley began with two gum brands, spearmint and juicyFile Size: 1MBPage Count: 140Explore furtherThe Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company Capital Structure, Valuation .www.caseprofessors.com(DOC) The Wm. Wrigley Company Case Romina Ferreira .www.academia.eduThe WM. Wrigley Jr. Company Capital Structure: Case Study .acasestudy.comHARVARD CASE STUDIES: THE WM. WRIGLEY JR. COMP harvardcasestudy.blogspot.c (DOC) The WM. WRIGLEY JR. COMPANY CAPITAL STRUC www.academia.eduRecommended to you b

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