Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report For 2015, Final Report
Hawaii Greenhouse GasEmissions Report for 2015Final ReportJanuary 2019Prepared for:Prepared by:
AcknowledgmentsThis inventory report was developed under the direction and oversight of the Hawaii State Departmentof Health, Clean Air Branch. ICF and the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization would liketo thank the Department of Health for its valuable input and guidance in the development of this report.We would also like to thank key contributors to the report including John Venezia, Emily Golla, SusanAsam, Cory Jemison, Rani Murali, Drew Stilson, Bobby Renz, Neha Vaingankar, Sabrina Andrews, andCara Blumenthal from ICF as well as Makena Coffman, Paul Bernstein, and Maja Schjervheim from theUniversity of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.Finally, we would like to thank the team of reviewers, which included representatives from theDepartment of Health (DOH), the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism(DBEDT), the Division of Consumer Advocacy (DCA), the Department of Land and Natural Resources(DLNR), Hawaii County, and the City and County of Honolulu.
Table of ContentsTable of Contents . iAcronyms and Abbreviations . iiiExecutive Summary .ES-11. Introduction . 11.1. Background . 11.2. Inventory Scope . 21.3. Methodologies and Data Sources . 31.4. Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) . 41.5. Uncertainty of Emission Estimates . 41.6. Organization of Report . 52. Emission Results . 72.1. Overview of 2015 Emissions . 72.2. Emission Trends . 83. Energy . 123.1. Stationary Combustion (IPCC Source Categories 1A1, 1A2, 1A4, 1A5) . 143.2. Transportation (IPCC Source Category 1A3) . 183.3. Incineration of Waste (IPCC Source Category 1A1a) . 233.4. Oil and Natural Gas Systems (IPCC Source Category 1B2) . 253.5. International Bunker Fuels (IPCC Source Category 1: Memo Items) . 263.6. CO2 from Wood Biomass and Biofuel Consumption (IPCC Source Category 1A) . 284. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) . 304.1. Cement Production (IPCC Source Category 2A1). 324.2. Electrical Transmission and Distribution (IPCC Source Category 2G1) . 334.3. Substitution of Ozone Depleting Substances (IPCC Source Category 2F) . 345. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) . 365.1. Enteric Fermentation (IPCC Source Category 3A1) . 395.2. Manure Management (IPCC Source Categories 3A2 and 3C6) . 405.3. Agricultural Soil Management (IPCC Source Categories 3C4 and 3C5) . 435.4. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues (IPCC Source Category 3C1b) . 465.5. Urea Application (IPCC Source Category 3C3) . 485.6. Agricultural Soil Carbon (IPCC Source Categories 3B2, 3B3) . 495.7. Forest Fires (IPCC Source Category 3C1a). 505.8. Landfilled Yard Trimmings and Food Scraps (IPCC Source Category 3B5a) . 535.9. Urban Trees (IPCC Source Category 3B5a) . 545.10. Forest Carbon (IPCC Source Category 3B1a) . 56Table of Contentsi
6. Waste . 586.1. Landfills (IPCC Source Category 4A1) . 606.2. Composting (IPCC Source Category 4B) . 616.3. Wastewater Treatment (IPCC Source Category 4D) . 637. Emission Projections. 667.1. Projections Summary . 677.2. Energy . 697.3. IPPU. 707.4. AFOLU . 717.5. Waste . 738. GHG Reduction Goal Progress . 759. References . 77Appendix A: IPCC Source and Sink Categories . 85Appendix B: Summary of Updates to Emission Estimates since the Previous Inventory Report . 87Appendix C: Hawaii Administrative Rule (HAR) Facility Data . 94Appendix D: Activity Data. 96Appendix E: Emission Factors . 102Appendix F: Estimates of Fuel Consumption from Various Sources . 114Appendix G: ODS Emissions . 116Appendix H: Emission Projections Methodology . 118Appendix I: Emission Scenarios for Electricity Generation by HECO . 135Appendix J: Comparison of Results with the State Inventory Tool and Projection Tool . 137Table of Contentsii
Acronyms and on of American Plan Food Control OfficialsAgriculture, Forestry, and Other Land UseBusiness as usualBillion British Thermal UnitsBritish Thermal UnitsBiochemical oxygen demandCorporate average fuel economyCalifornia Air Resources BoardMethaneCarbon dioxideDepartment of Business, Economic Development, and TourismDivision of Consumer AdvocacyDepartment of Land and Natural ResourcesDepartment of CommerceDepartment of EnergyDepartment of HealthDepartment of TransportationEnergy & Environmental EconomicsEnergy Efficiency Portfolio StandardEmission FactorEnergy Information AdministrationEnvironmental Protection AgencyElectric VehicleFederal Highway AdministrationFirst order decayGreenhouse gasGross state productGlobal warming potentialGreenhouse Gas Reporting ProgramHawaii Administrative RuleHeavy-duty vehicleHawaiian Electric CompanyHawaiian Electric Light CompanyHawaii Electric IndustriesHydrofluorocarbonIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIndustrial Processes and Product UseAcronyms and Abbreviationsiii
KIUC Kauai Island Utility Cooperativekg kilogramkt kilotonsLDV Light-duty vehicleLNG Liquefied natural gasLULUCF Land-use, land-use change and forestryMCF Methane conversion factorMECO Maui Electric CompanyMMBtu Million British Thermal UnitsMMT million metric tonsMSW Municipal solid wasteNASS National Agriculture Statistics ServicesNEO Non-energy usesNEX Nitrogen ExcretionN2O Nitrous oxideNOAA-CCAP National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coastal Change Analysis ProgramNPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination SystemODS Ozone Depleting SubstancePFC PerfluorocarbonPRP Pasture-Range and PaddockPSIP Power Supply Improvement PlanQA/QC Quality Assurance and Quality ControlRDF Refuse-derived FuelRPS Renewable portfolio standardSEDS State Energy Data SystemSLEIS State and Local Emissions Inventory SystemSF6 Sulfur hexafluorideSIT State Inventory ToolTAM Typical animal massTJ TerajouleUCS Union of Concerned ScientistsUHERO University of Hawaii Research OrganizationUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUSDA United States Department of AgricultureUSFS United States Forest ServiceUSGS United States Geological SurveyVMT Vehicle miles traveledVS Volatile solidsWMS Waste management systemAcronyms and Abbreviationsiv
Executive SummaryThe State of Hawaii is committed to reducing its contribution to global climate change and has takenefforts to measure and reduce statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2007, the State of Hawaiipassed Act 234 to establish the state’s policy framework and requirements to address GHG emissions.The law aims to achieve emission levels at or below Hawaii’s 1990 GHG emissions by January 1, 2020(excluding emissions from airplanes). In 2008, the State of Hawaii developed statewide GHG emissioninventories for 1990 and 2007. To help Hawaii meet their emissions target, Hawaii Administrative Rules,Chapter 11-60.1 was amended in 2014 to establish a facility-level GHG emissions cap for large existingstationary sources with potential GHG emissions at or above 100,000 tons per year. In an effort to trackprogress toward achieving the state’s 2020 GHG reduction goal, this report presents updated 1990 and2007 emission estimates;1 inventory estimates for 2010 and 2015; and emission projections for 2020and 2025.This information will be used by the state to evaluate whether current and planned actions are sufficientto achieve the statewide GHG emissions target. Based on the analysis presented in this report, net GHGemissions in 2020 (excluding aviation) are projected to be slightly lower than net GHG emissions 1990.These estimates and projections will be reviewed and updated, and presented along with GHGestimates for 2016 and 2017 in forthcoming inventory and projection reports. Therefore, while thisreport finds that Hawaii is currently on track to meet the 2020 target, this finding will be reassessed inthe forthcoming reports.BackgroundGHGs are gases that trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing infrared radiation and thereby warmingthe planet. These gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O),hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The amount ofwarming caused by each GHG depends on how effectively the gas traps heat and how long it stays in theatmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed the Global WarmingPotential (GWP) concept to compare the ability of each GHG to trap heat in the atmosphere relative tothe reference gas, CO2 (IPCC 2014). Throughout this report the relative contribution of each gas is shownin million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO2 Eq.). The GWP values used in this reportare from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), assuming a 100-year time horizon.1It is best practice to review GHG emission estimates for prior years and revise these estimates as necessary totake into account updated activity data and improved methodologies or emission factors that reflect advances inthe field of GHG accounting.Executive SummaryES-1
Inventory Scope and MethodologyThe GHG emission estimates presented in this report include anthropogenic2 GHG emissions and sinksfor the state of Hawaii for 1990, 2007, 2010, and 2015 from the following four sectors: Energy, IndustrialProcesses and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU), and Waste. As it isbest practice to review GHG emission estimates for prior years, this report includes revised estimates for1990 and 2007, and newly developed estimates for 2010 and 2015. ICF relied on the best availableactivity data, emissions factors, and methodologies to develop emission estimates presented in thisreport. Activity data varies for each source or sink category; examples of activity data used include fuelconsumption, vehicle-miles traveled, raw material processed, animal populations, crop production, landarea, and waste landfilled. Emission factors relate quantities of emissions to an activity (EPA 2017a). Keyguidance and resources included the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, theU.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), the EPA’sInventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2015, and EPA’s State Inventory Tool (SIT).Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC)A number of quality assurance and quality control measures were implemented during the process ofdeveloping this inventory to ensure inventory accuracy as well as to improve the quality of the inventoryover time. This includes the evaluation of the quality and relevance of data inputs; proper management,incorporation, and aggregation of data in a series of Excel workbooks; review of the numbers andestimates; and clear documentation of the results and methods. As part of these activities, the resultswere reviewed by representatives from the Department of Health (DOH) as well as a group of othergovernment entities.3 Comments and feedback provided by the review team were then incorporatedinto this report.Uncertainty of Emission EstimatesSome level of uncertainty in GHG estimates is associated with all emission inventories. This uncertaintycan be attributed to a number of factors, such as incomplete data, uncertainty in the activity datacollected, the use of average or default emission factors that may not reflect the specific nature of howemissions are generated from certain sources, the use of national data where state-specific data wereunavailable, and uncertainty in scientific understanding of emission pathways. Quantitative estimates ofuncertainty have not yet been developed for Hawaii; however, a quantitative uncertainty analysis will beconducted on statewide GHG estimates in forthcoming inventory reports in order to help identify areasfor improvement and prioritize future actions to improve GHG emission estimates for Hawaii. As fuelcombustion in Hawaii accounts for about 85 percent of total emissions, uncertainty around this source(which is typically lower than other sources) drives the uncertainty around the inventory totals.2Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are those that originate from human activity.The review team included representatives from the Department of Business, Economic Development andTourism (DBEDT), the Division of Consumer Advocacy (DCA), the Department of Land and Natural Resources(DLNR), Hawaii County, and the City and County of Honolulu.3Executive SummaryES-2
Emission ResultsIn 2015, total GHG emissions in Hawaii were 21.28 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent(MMT CO2 Eq.). Net emissions, which take into account carbon sinks, were 17.75 MMT CO2 Eq. Emissionsfrom the Energy sector accounted for the largest portion (87 percent) of total emissions in Hawaii,followed by the AFOLU sector (5 percent), the IPPU sector (4 percent), and the Waste sector (4 percent).Carbon dioxide was the largest single contributor to statewide GHG emissions in 2015, accounting forroughly 90 percent of total emissions on a GWP-weighted basis (CO2 Eq.). Methane is the second largestcontributor (5 percent), followed closely by HFCs and PFCs (4 percent), N2O (2 percent), and SF6 (lessthan 0.1 percent). Figure ES-1 shows emissions for 2015 by sector and gas.Figure ES-1: Hawaii 2015 GHG Emissions by Sector and GasNote: Percentages represent the percent of total emissions excluding sinks.Emission TrendsTotal GHG emissions in Hawaii grew by 13 percent between 1990 and 2007 before falling 7 percentbetween 2007 and 2010 and another 8 percent between 2010 and 2015. Total emissions in 2015 wereroughly 4 percent lower than 1990 levels. Net emissions were lower by roughly 7 percent in 2015relative to 1990. Figure ES-2 shows emissions for each inventory year by sector. Emission by source andyear are also summarized in Table ES-1.Executive SummaryES-3
Figure ES-2: Hawaii GHG Emissions by Sector (1990, 2007, 2010 and 2015)3025MMT CO2 Eq.20WasteIPPU15AFOLU (Sources)Energy10AFOLU (Sinks)50-51990200720102015Table ES-1: Hawaii GHG Emissions by Sector/Category for 1990, 2007, 2010 and 2015 (MMT CO2 Eq.)Sector/CategoryEnergyaIPPUAFOLU (Sources)AFOLU (Sinks)WasteTotal Emissions (Excluding Sinks)Net Emissions (Including Sinks)Domestic AviationbNet Emissions (Including Sinks, Excluding ions from International Bunker Fuels are not included in totals, as per IPCC (2006) guidelines.bDomestic aviation emissions, which are reported under the transportation source category under the Energysector, are excluded from Hawaii
efforts to measure and reduce statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2007, the State of Hawaii passed Act 234 to establish the state’s policy framework and requirements to address GHG emissions. The law aims to achieve emission levels at or below Hawaii’s 1990 GHG emissions by January 1, 2020 (excluding emissions from airplanes).
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