TSAP-2012 Baseline: Health And Environmental Impacts

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Service Contract onMonitoring and Assessmentof Sectorial Implementation Actions(ENV.C.3/SER/2011/0009)TSAP-2012 Baseline:Health andEnvironmental ImpactsTSAP Report #6Version 1.0Editor:Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASANovember 2012

The authorsThis report was compiled by Markus Amann, Jens Borken‐Kleefeld, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, GregorKiesewetter, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner and WilfriedWiniwarter, all working at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg,Austria.AcknowledgementsThis report was produced under the Service Contract on Monitoring and Assessment of SectorialImplementation Actions (ENV.C.3/SER/2011/0009) of DG‐Environment of the European Commission.DisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the positions of IIASA or itscollaborating and supporting organizations.The orientation and content of this report cannot be taken as indicating the position of the EuropeanCommission or its services.

Executive SummaryThis report examines the health and environmental impacts of the TSAP‐2012 baselineemission scenarios that have been presented in the TSAP Report #1 to the StakeholderExpert Group in June 2012. The baseline suggests for the next decades a steady decline ofenergy‐related emissions from industry, households and transport while no significantchanges are foreseen for NH3 from agricultural activities.These emission trajectories will lead to significant improvements in air quality. Forinstance, loss of statistical life expectancy from exposure to fine particulate matter(PM2.5) is expected to decline from 9.6 months in 2000 and 6.9 months in 2010 to 5.5months in 2020 and 5.0 months in 2030. It is estimated that the number of prematuredeaths attributable to short‐term exposure of ground‐level ozone will drop by about 30%by 2020. Ecosystems area where biodiversity is threatened by excess nitrogen depositionwill shrink from 1.2 million km2 in 2000 to 900,000 km2 in 2030, and acidification willremain an issue at only four percent of the European forest area.However, by 2020 the baseline improvements for fine particular matter health impactsand eutrophication will fall short of the targets established in the 2005 Thematic Strategyon Air Pollution, while for acidification and ozone these targets will be met. Furthermore,it is unlikely that the baseline development will achieve full compliance with the airquality limit values for PM10 and NO2 throughout Europe. Equally, the baseline scenariowill not provide protection against excess nitrogen deposition at almost 50% of the legallyprotected Natura2000 areas and other protected zones.In addition, the magnitude of air pollution impacts and resulting damage remainssubstantial. It is estimated that for the baseline in 2030, the European population wouldstill suffer a loss of 210 million life‐years and experience 18,000 premature deathsbecause of ozone exposure. Biodiversity will remain threatened by excess nitrogen inputat 900,000 km2 of ecosystems, including 250,000 km2 which are legally protected, interalia as Natura2000 areas.The analysis also highlights the scope for additional measures that could alleviate theremaining damage and move closer to the objectives of the Sixth Environment ActionProgram. Full application of readily available technical emission reduction measures in theEU could reduce health impacts from PM by 2020 by another 30% and thereby gain morethan 55 million life‐years in the EU. It could save another 3,000 premature deaths peryear because of lower ozone concentrations. Further controls of agricultural emissionscould protect biodiversity at another 200,000 km2 of ecosystems against excess nitrogendeposition, including 50,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. It couldeliminate almost all likely exceedances of PM10 air quality limit values in the old MemberStates, while in the urban areas of new Member States additional action to substitutesolid fuels in the household sector with cleaner forms of energy would be required. SuchEurope‐wide emission controls would also eliminate in 2030 all likely cases of non‐compliance with EU air quality standards for NO2 with the exception of a few stations forwhich additional local measures (e.g., traffic restrictions, low emission zones) would benecessary.While the general trend appears to be robust, quantification of the remaining effectsrequires more uncertainty analyses.Page 1

More information on the InternetMore information about the GAINS methodology and interactive access to input data and results is available atthe Internet at http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAP.Page 2

Table of contents123Introduction . 51.1Recent updates of the impact assessment methodologies . 51.2Structure of the report . 6Emissions of the TSAP‐2012 scenario . 72.1Emission control legislation considered in the ‘Current legislation’ baseline . 82.2Sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions. 102.3Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions . 112.4Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions . 132.5Ammonia (NH3) emissions. 142.6Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. 152.7Emissions of non‐EU countries and marine shipping . 172.8Long‐term emission scenarios. 19Impact indicators . 213.1A long‐term perspective up to 2050 . 213.2The scope for health and environmental improvements up to 2030 . 233.2.1Health impacts from fine particulate matter . 233.2.2Health impacts from ground‐level ozone . 273.2.3Excess nitrogen deposition leading to eutrophication of ecosystems . 283.2.4Excess nitrogen deposition to the Natura2000 and other protected ecosystems areas. 313.2.5Acidification of forest soils. 333.2.6Acidification of freshwater bodies . 363.34Future compliance with air quality limit values . 363.3.1Compliance with PM10 air quality limit values. 403.3.2Compliance with NO2 limit values . 43Conclusions . 46Page 3

List of acronymsBATBest Available Technologybblbarrel of oilboebarrel of oil equivalentCAFEClean Air For Europe Programme of the European CommissionCAPRIAgricultural model developed by the University of BonnCH4MethaneCLRTAPConvention on Long‐range Transboundary Air PollutionCO2Carbon dioxideCCSCarbon Capture and StorageEC4MACSEuropean Consortium for Modelling Air Pollution and Climate StrategiesEMEPEuropean Monitoring and Evaluation ProgrammeETSEmission Trading System of the European Union for CO2 emissionsEUEuropean UnionGAINSGreenhouse gas ‐ Air pollution Interactions and Synergies modelGDPGross domestic productGHGGreenhouse gasesIEDIndustrial Emissions DirectiveIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisIPPCIntegrated Pollution Prevention and Control (directive)ktkilotons 103 tonsLCPLarge Combustion Plants (directive)N2 ONitrous oxideNECNational Emission CeilingsNH3AmmoniaNMVOCNon‐methane volatile organic compoundsNOxNitrogen oxidesN2 ONitrous oxidesO3OzonePJPetajoule 1015 joulePM10Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 µmPM2.5Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µmPRIMESEnergy Systems Model of the National Technical University of AthensSNAPSelected Nomenclature for Air Pollutants; Sector aggregation used in the CORINAIR emissioninventory systemSO2Sulphur dioxideTSAPThematic Strategy on Air PollutionUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeVOCVolatile organic compoundsPage 4

1IntroductionAs an input to the review and revision of the EU airpolicy in 2013 and in particular of the 2005Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, IIASApresented a series of draft emission projections inthe TSAP Report #1 in June 2012 (Amann et al.,2012). These scenarios provide an outlook into thelikely development of emissions that can beenvisaged from the latest expectations oneconomic development and the implementation ofrecent policies on energy, transport, agricultureand climate change. However, as numerousimprovements in the impact assessment methodswere still under way in June 2012, TSAP Report #1did not explore the health and environmentaleffects of the emission scenarios. Based on therevised impact assessment methods this TSAPReport #6 presents indicators for health andecosystems impacts for the emission scenariosthat have been presented in June.Report #8. Here a brief summary of the changes isprovided. While the chemical transformation andtransport of pollutants in the atmosphere hasbeen modelled before for a 50km*50km gridsystem, the new calculations employ the mostrecent version of the Eulerian EMEP model(Simpson et al., 2012) with a 28km*28km gridresolution on a longitude/latitude projection.This not only provides more spatial detail, butalso avoids interpolation errors whenconverting meteorological input data.Furthermore, the new version of the EMEPEulerianmodelalsoquantifiesthecontribution of secondary organic aerosols toPM2.5 that have been ignored previously. A new methodology has been developed todownscale ambient concentrations of PM2.5from a 28*28 km EMEP grid system to a7*7 km resolution. Based on fine‐scalecalculations with the CHIMERE model(Bessagnet et al., 2010), this new methodreplaces the earlier ‘City‐Delta’ approach ofGAINS (Cuvelier et al., 2007) and is used forcomputing population exposure and healthimpacts from fine particulate matter. The assessment of premature mortality fromfine particulate matter has been harmonizedwith the approach used for the benefitassessment. The earlier methodologyquantified the life years lost during theremaining lifetime of the population that wasolder than 30 years in the target year (e.g., in2020) assuming that a constant PM levelprevails for the rest of the life time. Incontrast, the new methodology also considersimpacts on cohorts born today once theyreach the age of 30 years in the future. New epidemiological studies suggest somemodifications of the health impactmethodology used before in GAINS, e.g., toreflect cause‐specific mortality and possiblenon‐linearities in the exposure‐responsefunctions. However, the WHO projectREVIHAAP that is currently reviewing the newevidence has not yet provided definiteconclusions. Thus, the current impactIt is noteworthy that, due to the timing of thevarious lines of work, the emission scenariospresented in this report do not incorporatefeedbacks received from national experts duringthe bilateral consultations in fall 2012. Thesecomments, together with updated versions of theenergy projections, will flow into the next round ofmodel calculations in early 2013.1.1 Recent updates of the impactassessment methodologiesIn recent months, the impact assessmentmethodologies of GAINS (Amann, Bertok, Borken‐Kleefeld, Cofala, Heyes, Höglund‐Isaksson, Klimont,Nguyen, et al., 2011) have been updated alongseveral lines to incorporate recent improvementsin atmospheric dispersion modelling and newinformation on the sensitivity of ecosystems.Furthermore, work is underway to adjust thehealth impact assessment methodology to newepidemiological findings on the health effects ofair pollution. However, pending final advice fromthe WHO REVIHAAP project, new findings haveonly been partially introduced into GAINS up tonow.The methodological changes and how the newresults compare to earlier estimates are describedin detail in the forthcoming companion TSAPPage 5

assessment presented in this report employsthe linear relative risk factors found by Popeet al., 2002 for all‐cause mortality that havebeen used for earlier GAINS work for the TSAPand the revision of the NEC directive. It isplanned to adopt the modifications proposedby the REVIHAAP project in the final TSAPscenarios that are planned for early 2013. A new methodology has been developed forassessing future compliance with the airquality limit values for PM10 and NO2 for theAIRBASE monitoring stations that reportedexceedances to the EEA. In 2012, the Coordination Centre for Effects(CCE) has compiled an updated database oncriticalloadsforacidificationandeutrophication, with better defined targetecosystems and improved methodologies(Posch et al., 2011). The critical loads data thathave been provided by National Focal Centresfor 2.1 million ecosystems in the EU‐28 havebeen allocated to the 28 km*28 km longitude/latitude grid system that is now used forcalculating deposition. Furthermore, in the context of the EC4MACSproject (www.ec4macs.eu), the CCE hascollected from the National Focal Centrescritical loads data for ecosystems that areprotected by EU legislation (e.g., BirdsDirective, Habitat Directive, Natura2000) ornational laws. This enables a specificevaluation of the impacts of emission controlscenarios on these nature protection areas.Page 6 For calculating future concentrations ofground‐level ozone, the co‐chairs of the TaskForce on Hemispheric Transport Air Pollution(HTAP) advised, based on multi‐model/multi‐scenario calculations, to assume as a centralestimate for the period 2020‐2030 a zero ppbchange in hemispheric background ozoneconcentrations compared to the period 2000‐2010.Using optimistic and vity cases should explore theimplications of changes in background ozonebetween –1 and 3 ppb. For earlier GAINSanalyses an increase of 4.5 ppb between 1990and 2020 has been recommended before inanswers to the ‘Urbino questions’ provided bythe FP6 ACCENT Network of Excellence (Raes& Hjorth, 2006), based on extrapolations ofozone trends measured at the Irish WestCoast between 1990 and 2000.1.2 Structure of the reportSection 2 of this report provides a brief summaryof the baseline emission projections, essentiallyrepeating the findings of TSAP Report #1 anddiscussing changed assumptions on theeffectiveness of emission controls for road (i.e.,Euro‐6) and non‐road mobile sources.Section 3 reviews the environmental impacts ofthese emission scenarios, and Section 4 drawsconclusions from the analysis.

2Emissions of the TSAP‐2012 scenarioThis report examines the environmental impactsthat are expected from the future changes ofemissions following the TSAP‐2012 scenario thathas been presented in June 2012 to theStakeholder Expert Group (see Amann et al.,2012).The TSAP‐2012 baseline employs assumptions onfuture economic development that have beenused for other recent policy analyses of theEuropean Commission, in particular the ‘Energytrends up to 2030’, the ‘Roadmap for moving to acompetitive low‐carbon economy in 2050’ (CEC,2011a), and the White Paper on Transport (CEC,2011b). In particular, projections up to 2030 followthe economic development and energytrajectories of the PRIMES 2010 Referencescenario (CEC, 2010) and the correspondingforecast of agricultural activities developed withthe CAPRI model.It should be noted that the TSAP‐2012 baseline hasbeen developed by IIASA based on the PRIMES‐2010 activity projections, internationally availablestatistics and information from Member Statesexperts as of spring 2012, and has been presentedto the Stakeholder Expert Group in June 2012.Feedbacks received from stakeholders, as well asall information that has been provided by nationalexperts to IIASA in the course of the bilateralconsultations in the second half of 2012 are notyet reflected in the TSAP‐2012 baseline. This bodyof new information is currently being incorporatedinto the GAINS database and will feed into the setof TSAP‐2013 scenarios in early 2013.Despite a doubling in economic activity between2000 and 2030, the TSAP‐2012 baseline scenariosuggests a stabilization of energy consumption, asenergy efficiency policies will successfully reduceenergy demand in households and industry.While for this report all other factors andassumptions remain unchanged compared to thebaseline scenario presented in June 2012 (see thesummary on legislation assumed in the baseline inAmann et al., 2012), an adjustment has been madefor the assumptions on the implementationschedule and effectiveness of the Euro‐6 NOxemission standards for light duty diesel vehicles, aswell as for non‐road mobile machinery.The final TSAP‐2012 baseline presented in thisreport assumes from 2018 onwards real‐life NOxemissions to be 1.5 times higher than the NTEEuro‐6 test cycle limit value (i.e., about 120 mgNOx/km for real‐world driving conditions,compared to the limit value of 80 mg/km). Beforethat, it is assumed that emission factors of newcars would decline to 380 mg NOx/km from 2014onwards. Further, inland vessels are now excludedfrom Stage IIIB or higher emission controls, andrailcars and locomotives not subject to Stage IVcontrols.As a consequence of the structural changes in theenergy and transport sectors and the progressiveimplementation of emission control legislation,SO2 emissions will fall drastically. Largestreductions are foreseen for the power sector,which will cut its emissions by almost 90%compared with 2000. NOx emissions could drop byup to 65% in the coming years if the Euro‐6 limitvalues were effectively implemented. Legislationdirected at other pollutants will decrease PM2.5emissions by up to 40%., and also VOC emissionsare expected to decline at a similar rate. Incontrast to the other air pollutants, only minorchanges are expected for NH3 emissions.Page 7

2.1 Emission control legislation considered in the ‘Current legislation’ baselineIn addition to the energy, climate and agriculturalpolicies that influence future activity levels, theTSAP‐2012 baseline considers a detailed inventoryof national emission control legislation (includingthe transposition of EU‐wide legislation). Itassumes that these regulations will be fullycomplied with in all Member States according tothe foreseen time schedule. For CO2, regulationsare

This report examines the health and environmental impacts of the TSAP‐2012 baseline emission scenarios that have been presented in the TSAP Report #1 to the Stakeholder Expert Group in June 2012. The baseline suggests for the next decades a steady decline of

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