ICAO Long-Term Traffic Forecasts

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ICAOLong-TermTrafficForecastsPa enger andCargoINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

ICAOLong-TermTrafficForecastsPassenger and CargoApril 2018INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

WORLDTotal passenger traffic: history and forecastsRevenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)0CAGR*1,000 2,000 3,000 4,0006.0%6.7%Central Southwest Asia Domestic2.5%2.6%2.7%2.6%2.7%North AmericaIntra Europe8.8%6.1%6.6%7.5%6.5%6.8%10.0%China & South West Asia - PacificSouth East AsiaCentral Southwest Asia - Middle East2.6%2.8%3.3%Europe - North %4.7%Central Southwest Asia - EuropePacific South East AsiaCentral Southwest Asia - NorthAmericaIntra Pacific South East Asia204512.3%2035*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate20152015-20452015-20351995-2015

Forecast. Passenger traffic by route group by region:2015 vs. 2035 and 2015 vs. 2045

AFRICACAGR*Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK)(billion)050100 150 200 250 3004.6%4.5%Africa - Middle East11.5%4.1%4.3%Europe - North Africa8.1%2.8%2.9%3.9%Europe - Sub Saharan Africa5.9%5.8%6.2%Intra Africa5.9%5.8%Africa Domestic3.8%4.7%5.0%Africa - Asia/Pacific7.0%2.9%2.9%Africa - North America7.5%3.9%3.8%Africa & Middle East - SouthAmerica11.0%Africa & Middle East - : Compound Annual Growth Rate20152015-20452015-20351995-2015

ASIA AND PACIFICRevenue Passenger-Kilometres ntral Southwest Asia DomesticCentral Southwest Asia - Pacific SouthEast AsiaCentral Southwest Asia - Middle East5.1%5.5%Central Southwest Asia - %6.8%7.2%6.7%4.0%4.0%Pacific South East Asia DomesticCentral Southwest Asia - NorthAmericaIntra Pacific South East AsiaCentral Southwest Asia - North AsiaMiddle East - North Asia & PacificSouth East Asia11.7%4.4%4.5%3.0%4.1%4.0%3.5%Europe - Pacific South East AsiaNorth Asia - Pacific South East Asia6.3%6.9%Intra Central Southwest Asia9.2%2.3%2.4%0.9%North America - North rth America - Pacific South EastAsiaEurope - North AsiaNorth Asia DomesticAfrica - Asia/Pacific1.7%1.7%Intra North AsiaLatin America/Caribbean - North Asia& Pacific South East AsiaLatin America/Caribbean - CentralSouthwest 0352015*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate2015-20457.0%9.1%5.3%5.4%2015-20351995-2015

EUROPERevenue Passenger-Kilometres Intra Europe2.6%2.8%3.3%Europe - North America5.1%5.5%Central Southwest Asia - Europe7.5%4.0%4.2%Europe - Middle East9.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%Europe Domestic4.4%4.5%Europe - Pacific South East Asia3.0%4.1%4.2%Europe - South America5.8%3.8%4.4%Central America/Caribbean - Europe7.3%4.1%4.3%Europe - North Africa8.1%2.8%2.9%3.9%Europe - Sub Saharan Africa2.4%2.5%2.7%Europe - North Asia204520352015*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate2015-20452012-20351995-2015

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANRevenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK)(billion)0100200300CAGR*4005003.6%4.0%Central America/Caribbean - NorthAmerica6.8%4.1%4.2%5.8%Europe - South America3.3%3.1%South America Domestic8.5%3.9%4.0%4.6%North America - South America3.8%4.4%Central America/Caribbean - Europe7.3%4.5%4.3%5.9%Central America/Caribbean Domestic4.4%3.6%Central America/Caribbean - SouthAmerica10.5%3.3%3.1%Intra South America6.4%4.5%4.3%4.0%Intra Central America/Caribbean3.9%3.8%Africa & Middle East - South America11.0%5.3%5.4%Latin America/Caribbean - CentralSouthwest Asia0.0%Africa & Middle East - : Compound Annual Growth Rate20152015-20452015-20351995-2015

MIDDLE EASTCAGR*Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK)(billion)03507001,0501,4006.5%6.8%Central Southwest Asia - Middle East10.0%4.0%4.2%Europe - Middle East9.0%4.0%4.0%Middle East - North Asia & PacificSouth East Asia11.7%4.6%4.5%Africa - Middle East11.5%3.6%3.8%Middle East - North America12.6%3.4%3.6%Intra Middle East10.5%3.4%Middle East3.6%5.4%3.9%Africa & Middle East - South America3.8%11.0%4.8%Africa & Middle East - : Compound Annual Growth Rate2015-20452015-20351995-2015

NORTH AMERICACAGR*Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK)(billion)0500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,5002.5%2.6%North America Domestic2.7%2.6%2.8%3.3%Europe - North America5.3%5.9%7.1%Central Southwest Asia - NorthAmerica3.6%4.0%Central America/Caribbean - NorthAmerica6.8%3.9%4.0%4.6%North America - South America3.6%3.8%Middle East - North America12.6%2.3%2.4%North America - North Asia0.9%4.3%4.4%3.9%North America - Pacific South EastAsia2.5%2.6%Intra North America4.9%2.9%2.9%Africa - North America7.5%20452035*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate20152015-20452015-20351995-2015

DEFINITON OF REGIONSAFRICANorth AfricaAlgeriaEgyptLibyaMoroccoTunisiaSub Saharan AfricaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCameroonCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongoCôte d'IvoireDemocratic Republic of the CongoDjiboutiEquatorial ao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanSwazilandTogoUgandaUnited Republic of TanzaniaZambiaZimbabwe

ASIA AND PACIFICCentral and South-West nKyrgyzstanMongoliaMyanmarNepalPakistanSri LankaTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistanNorth AsiaDemocratic People's Republic of KoreaJapanRepublic of KoreaPacific South-East AsiaAustraliaBrunei DarussalamCambodiaCook IslandsFijiIndonesiaKiribatiLao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMaldivesMarshall IslandsNauruNew ZealandPalauPapua New GuineaPhilippinesSamoaSingaporeSolomon IslandsThailandTongaVanuatuViet NamMicronesia (Federated States of)Timor-Leste

sBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech PortugalRepublic of MoldovaRomaniaRussian FederationSan The former Yugoslav Republic of MacedoniaTurkeyUkraineUnited Kingdom

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANCentral America/ CaribbeanAntigua and BarbudaBahamasBarbadosBelizeCosta RicaCubaDominican RepublicEl NicaraguaPanamaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesTrinidad and TobagoSouth AmericaArgentinaBolivia (Plurinational State inameUruguayVenezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)MIDDLE EASTBahrainIran (Islamic Republic of)IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicUnited Arab EmiratesYemenNORTH AMERICACanadaUnited States

World map of Long Term Forecasts Regions

Summary of Passenger Traffic Forecasts by Route GroupPassenger traffic results in terms of RPKsRegion / Region-pairAfrica - Asia/PacificAfrica - Middle EastAfrica - North AmericaAfrica & Middle East - Central America/CaribbeanAfrica & Middle East - South AmericaAfrica DomesticCentral America/Caribbean - EuropeCentral America/Caribbean - North AmericaCentral America/Caribbean - South AmericaCentral America/Caribbean DomesticCentral South West Asia - North AmericaCentral South West Asia - North AsiaCentral South West Asia - Pacific South East AsiaCentral South West Asia - EuropeCentral South West Asia - Middle EastCentral South West Asia DomesticEurope - Middle EastEurope - North AfricaEurope - North AmericaEurope - North AsiaEurope - Pacific South East AsiaEurope - South AmericaEurope - Sub Saharan AfricaEurope DomesticIntra AfricaIntra Central America/CaribbeanIntra China & South West AsiaIntra EuropeIntra Middle EastIntra North AmericaIntra North AsiaIntra Pacific South East AsiaIntra South AmericaLatin America/Caribbean - Central South West AsiaLatin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific South East AsiaMiddle East - North AmericaMiddle East - North Asia & Pacific South East AsiaMiddle East DomesticNorth America - North AsiaNorth America - Pacific South East AsiaNorth America - South AmericaNorth America DomesticNorth Asia - Pacific South East AsiaNorth Asia DomesticPacific South East Asia DomesticSouth America DomesticWorld Total*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate10 Year(2015-2025)CAGR*20 Year(2015-2035)30 %4.1%1.7%5.2%3.3%4.1%4.3%4.1%

Summary of Total Cargo Traffic Forecasts by Region of Airline Registration(Scheduled Services)Cargo traffic results in terms of 4%3.8%3.9%Asia and Pacific4.9%4.3%3.9%Europe2.9%2.7%2.5%Latin America and the Caribbean1.4%1.6%1.6%Middle East5.6%5.7%5.4%North America3.2%2.8%2.6%WORLD4.1%3.9%3.6%*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Central Southwest Asia Domestic North America Intra Europe China & South West Asia - Pacific South East Asia Central Southwest Asia - Middle East . Central Southwest Asia Africa & Middle East - Central America/Caribbean Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion) 2045 2035 2015 3.6% 4.1% 3.3% 3.9% 3.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Related Documents:

ICAO Doc 9184, Airport Planning Manual, Parts 1 to 3; ICAO Doc 9261, Heliport Manual; ICAO Doc 9332, Manual on the ICAO Bird Strike Information System (IBIS); ICAO Doc 9365, Manual of All-Weather Operations; ICAO Doc 9426, Air Traffic Services Planning Manual; ICAO Doc 9476, Manual of Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems (SMGCS); ICAO .

ICAO Doc 9683, Human Factors Training Manual; ICAO Doc 9734, Establishment and Management of a State‘s Safety Oversight System; ICAO Doc 9760, Airworthiness Manual, Volumes I and II; ICAO Doc 9774, Manual on Certification of Aerodromes; ICAO Doc 9815, Manual on Laser Emitters and Flight Safety; ICAO

1.3 This BAR is based mainly on compliance with the following ICAO documents: (a) ICAO Annex 10 Volumes I to V – Aeronautical Telecommunications; (b) ICAO Annex 11 – Air Traffic Service; (c) ICAO Annex 19 – Safety Management; (d) ICAO Doc 8071 Volumes I to III – Testing of Ground-based and Satellite-

(ICAO Doc 8168); (ee) Procedures for Air Navigation Services—Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM) (ICAO Doc 4444). Formerly the Procedures for Air Navigation Services—Rules of the Air and Air Traffic Services (PANS-RAC); (ff) Heliport Manual (ICAO Doc 9261); (gg) Definitions (ICAO Doc 9569);

CHAPTER 2 - ICAO STATE LETTERS (ANNEX AMENDMENTS) 2.1 Notification of amendment to an ICAO Annex. 2.1.1 Proposals to amend an ICAO Annex are notified by an ICAO technical State letter. Amendment to regulations (involving rule/ Civil Aviation Requirements) is initiated as a re

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ICAO NACC Regional Office Page 8 . Annex 14 - Aerodromes, Volume I - Aerodrome Design and Operations . Wildlife strike reports shall be collected and forwarded to ICAO for inclusion in the ICAO Bird Strike Information System (IBIS) database. Information on the system is included in the . Manual on the ICAO Bird Strike Information System (IBIS)