Early College, Early Success: Early College High School .
MARCH 2013
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSEarly College, Early Success: EarlyCollege High School InitiativeImpact StudySeptember 2013Andrea Berger, Project DirectorLori Turk-Bicakci, Deputy Project DirectorMichael Garet, Principal InvestigatorMengli SongJoel KnudsonClarisse HaxtonKristina ZeiserGur HoshenJennifer FordJennifer StephanAmerican Institutes for ResearchKaeli KeatingLauren CassidySRI International1000 Thomas Jefferson Street NWWashington, DC 20007-3835202.403.5000 TTY 877.334.3499www.air.orgThis report is part of an ongoing series of reports based on the evaluation of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’sEarly College High School Initiative. The views, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed herein arethose of the authors and do not necessarily express the viewpoint of the foundation. Direct inquiries to AndreaBerger at 2800 Campus Drive Suite 200, San Mateo, CA 94403; or at aberger@air.orgCopyright 2013 American Institutes for Research. All rights reserved.1295 06/13
AcknowledgmentsMany people donated their time and expertise to this evaluation and this report. We wouldlike to thank the many staff members at schools, districts, and states who, despite their busyschedules, took time to work with us on the data collection required for this evaluation. Wewould also like to thank the staff at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, in particular LancePotter and David Silver, for their ongoing support of this impact study and their input into itsdevelopment. We would also like to thank our enthusiastic and engaged Technical WorkingGroup members: Nancy Adelman, Elaine Allensworth, Geoffrey Borman, Hans Bos, JulieEdmunds, James Kemple, and Judith Singer.Many people within AIR assisted in the work. We thank all of them for their assistance withthis project: Jessica Aylward, Suzanne Claussen, Susan Cole, Phil Esra, Megan Gallivan,Brian Holzman, Rita Kirshstein, Lindsay Poland, Kay Soga, Sarah Steckley, JeffreyTranguch, Kirk Walters, and Amy Windham.American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyi
ContentsAcknowledgments .iContents. iiExecutive Summary . ivAbout the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Early College High School Initiative(ECHSI) . ivAbout the Study . ivKey Study Findings.vSumming Up. viChapter 1. Introduction . 1Research on Dual Enrollment and Early Colleges . 3The ECHSI Evaluation . 7Overview of the ECHSI Impact Study . 8Chapter 2. Research Design . 11ECHSI Impact Study Conceptual Framework . 11Identifying Eligible Early Colleges . 13Identifying Early College and Comparison Students . 16Characteristics of Study Schools . 17Data Sources. 19Baseline Equivalence . 23Analytic Methods . 24Reporting Findings . 28Chapter 3. Early College Impact on Student Outcomes. 29High School Outcomes . 29College Outcomes . 32Conclusion . 48Chapter 4. High School Experiences . 50College Exposure in High School . 50Academic Rigor . 56Supports . 58Conclusion . 65Chapter 5. Summary . 66Early College Impact on Outcomes . 67Differential Early College Impact. 68American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyii
Early College Impact on High School Experiences . 69Caveats and Future Research . 70Conclusion . 72References. 74Appendix A: Measures . 82Appendix B: Samples and Data Sources . 89Administrative Data . 89Survey Data. 93Appendix C: Missing Data . 97Appendix D: Technical Details on Impact Analysis . 101Multilevel Model to Estimate the Overall Early College Impact (ResearchQuestion 1) . 101Multilevel Model to Estimate the Variation in Early College Impact AcrossDifferent Types of Students (Research Question 2) . 103Appendix E: Summary of Impact Findings . 105Appendix F: Sensitivity Analyses . 112Comparison of Impact Results With and Without Specific Sites . 112Comparison of Impact Results Based on the Administrative Data Sample andSurvey Sample . 114Comparison of Impact Results Based on the Fixed-Effects Model and a RandomEffects Model . 115Comparison of Impact Results That Included and Excluded Imputed OutcomeData . 117Comparison of Impact Results That Included and Excluded BaselineCharacteristics . 118Appendix G: Complier Effects Analyses . 119American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyiii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYExecutive SummaryAbout the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Early CollegeHigh School Initiative (ECHSI)In 2002, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation launched the ECHSI with the primary goal ofincreasing the opportunity for underserved students to earn a postsecondary credential. Toachieve this goal, Early Colleges provide underserved students with exposure to, andsupport in, college while they are in high school. Early Colleges partner with colleges anduniversities to offer all students an opportunity to earn an associate’s degree or up to twoyears of college credits toward a bachelor’s degree during high school at no or low cost tothe students. The underlying assumption is that engaging underrepresented students in arigorous high school curriculum tied to the incentive of earning college credit will motivatethem and increase their access to additional postsecondary education and credentials afterhigh school. Since 2002, more than 240 Early Colleges have opened nationwide.About the StudyThis study focused on the impact of Early Colleges. It addressed two questions:1. Do Early College students have better outcomes than they would have had at otherhigh schools?2. Does the impact of Early Colleges vary by student background characteristics (e.g.,gender and family income)?To answer these questions, we conducted a lottery-based randomized experiment, takingadvantage of the fact that some Early Colleges used lotteries in their admissions processes.By comparing the outcomes for students who participated in admissions lotteries and wereoffered enrollment with the outcomes for students who participated in the lotteries but werenot offered enrollment, we can draw causal conclusions about the impact of Early Colleges.The primary student outcomes for this study were high school graduation, collegeenrollment, and college degree attainment. We also examined students’ high school andcollege experiences. Data on student background characteristics and high school outcomescame from administrative records from schools, districts, and states; data on collegeoutcomes came from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC); and data on high schooland college experiences and intermediate outcomes such as college credit accrual camefrom a student survey.American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyiv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWe assessed the impact of Early Colleges on these outcomes for a sample of 10 EarlyColleges that did the following: Enrolled students in grades 9–12 and had high school graduates in the study years(2005–2011) Used lotteries as part of the admission processes in at least one of the study cohorts(students who entered ninth grade in 2005–06, 2006–07, or 2007–08) Retained the lottery recordsEight of the 10 Early Colleges in the study were included in the student survey. The overallstudy sample included 2,458 students and the survey sample included 1,294 students. Thestudy extended through three years past high school.Key Study Findings High School GraduationEarly College students were significantly more likely to graduate from highschool than comparison students. Overall, graduation rates for both groups werehigh. However, 86 percent of Early College students graduated from high school,which was significantly higher than the 81 percent for comparison students. College EnrollmentEarly College students were significantly more likely to enroll in college thancomparison students. During the study period, 80 percent of Early College studentsenrolled, compared with 71 percent of comparison students. In addition, Early Collegestudents were more likely than comparison students to enroll in both two-year andfour-year colleges or universities. Although the gap in enrollment rates between thetwo groups decreased over time, comparison students’ college enrollments did notcatch up to those of Early College students during the study period. College Degree AttainmentEarly College students were significantly more likely to earn a college degreethan comparison students. During the study period, 22 percent of Early Collegestudents earned a college degree (typically an associate’s degree), as comparedwith only 2 percent of comparison students. In addition, Early College studentsearned college degrees far earlier than is typical: 20 percent of Early Collegestudents earned a degree by the time they graduated from high school.American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Impact for Student SubgroupsEarly College impact generally did not differ by subgroup, and when theimpact differed, the difference was generally in favor of underrepresentedgroups. The Early College impact on high school graduation and college enrollmentdid not differ significantly based on gender, race/ethnicity, family income, firstgeneration college-going status, or pre-high school achievement. In other words, allstudent groups experienced the impact of attending an Early College. The EarlyCollege impact on college degree attainment did not differ based on first-generationcollege-going status, but were stronger for female than male students, stronger forminority than non-minority students, stronger for lower income than higher incomestudents, and stronger for students with higher middle school achievement thanlower achieving students.Summing UpAlthough the findings from this study are applicable only to the 10 Early Colleges included inthe study sample, they provide strong evidence for the positive impact of Early Colleges onstudents. Early College students had a greater opportunity than their peers to enroll in andgraduate from college. They also appeared to be on a different academic trajectory, withEarly College students earning college degrees and enrolling in four-year institutions athigher rates than comparison students. In addition, Early Colleges appeared to mitigate thetraditional educational attainment gaps between advantaged and disadvantaged students.These Early Colleges likely attracted academically prepared and ambitious students to theirlotteries. Prior to high school, lottery applicants generally performed above the state averagein the ELA and mathematics assessments. Furthermore, both Early College and comparisonstudents had impressive high school graduation rates and college enrollment rates, thoughEarly College students’ rates were higher.The Early Colleges in this study yielded significant and meaningful improvements in almostevery student outcome examined. Early College students were benefitting from their EarlyCollege experience beyond high school, and we expect these benefits to continue. Forexample, Early College students may earn more college degrees, may accrue lesseducational debt, and may begin their careers sooner (and thus may have higher lifetimeearnings) compared with other students.American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Studyvi
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONChapter 1. IntroductionThe Early College High School Initiative (ECHSI), launched by the Bill & Melinda GatesFoundation in 2002, provided funds for the development of Early College High Schools(hereafter referred to as “Early Colleges”). Early Colleges offer students who are traditionallyunderrepresented in postsecondary education the opportunity to pursue a high school diplomawhile simultaneously earning college credits. The primary goal of the ECHSI is to increasestudents’ access to a postsecondary credential. The solution offered by the ECHSI is toimprove underrepresented students’ likelihood of earning a college degree by enrolling themin college courses while they are in high school and can receive support from high schoolstaff.This report provides the findings from an evaluation of the ECHSI. The evaluation sought todetermine if Early College students had better outcomes than they would have had at otherhigh schools. We used a lottery-based randomized experiment. The primary studentoutcomes evaluated were high school graduation, college enrollment, and college degreeattainment.There is substantial evidence that a postsecondary degree or credential prepares studentsfor successful entry into the workforce. Bachelor’s degree holders earn more over a lifetimethan individuals with only a high school diploma (Carnevale, Rose, & Cheah, 2011), andcollege degree earners fared better in the recent American recession than adults who heldonly a high school diploma (Grusky, Bird, Rodriguez, & Wimer, 2013). Moreover, workforceprojections consistently predict that the lion’s share of future jobs will require apostsecondary degree (Carnevale, Smith, Stone, Kotamraju, Steuernagel, & Green, 2011).Postsecondary success therefore represents the most critical goal for the initiative.The ECHSI focuses in particular on supporting underrepresented students in achieving acollege credential. Research has consistently shown that minority students and studentsfrom disadvantaged families are underrepresented as college degree recipients. First,Hispanic and African American students are less likely than non-minority students to earn abachelor’s degree (NCES, 2012b). Second, low-income students are less likely to earn acollege degree of any type than higher income students (NCES, 2012c). Third, students whoare the first in their family to go to college are less likely to leave college with a degree thanstudents whose parents have attended college (NCES, 2012c). As a result, studentsubgroups historically underrepresented among college degree recipients are the intendedtarget population of the ECHSI.Offering college courses to high school students is not unique to the ECHSI. In 2010–11,82 percent of public high schools offered dual credit courses (Thomas, Marken, Gray, &American Institutes for ResearchEarly College High School Initiative Impact Study1
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONLewis, 2013). In addition, approximately 53 percent of postsecondary institutions reportedenrolling high school students in college courses either within or outside formal dualenrollment programs (Marken, Gray, & Lewis, 2013).1 Despite the availability of dualenrollment programs, less than 10 percent of public high school students took advantage ofthem in 2010–11.2Early Colleges facilitate dual enrollment through established course sequences. Through theECHSI, Early Colleges partner with colleges and universities to offer enrolled students anopportunity to earn an associate’s degree or up to two years of college credits toward thebachelor’s degree during high
The Early Colleges in this study yielded significant and meaningful improvements in almost every student outcome examined. Early College students were benefitting from their Early College experience beyond high school, and we expect these benefits to continue. For example, Early College students may earn more college degrees, may accrue less
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