Global Strategic Trends Setting The Strategic Context For .
Global strategic trendsSetting the strategic contextfor defence and securityLt Col Andrew FergussonDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Humans are a gloomy species. Some 71% of Britonsthink the world is getting worse; only 5% think it isimprovingDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Strategic trends programmeStrategiccontext forplanning anddecisionsContinuousprogramme,running since2001Identifiestrends anddrivers – notpredictiveHorizonscanninglooking out 30years13 broadthemes, 8regions andspaceDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
DemographicsA growing population and declining growth rateDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
DemographicsTwo billionmore people by2045Decliningnumbers indevelopedcountriesDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
DemographicsGender imbalance and inequalityGenderimbalanceMaledominatedsocieties tendto be moreviolentGenderinequalityremainsDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
DemographicsIncreasing life spansDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
DemographicsYouth bulge, migration and cultureGrowing youthpopulations rd AsiaIncreasingculturalcomplexityDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
UrbanisationOver 70% ofglobalpopulationliving in cities1.3 millionmigrating everyweekDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ationaltradeagreementsUnlikely to beuniformDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
EconomicsEconomic growthGross domestic product (adjusted for purchasing power parity), expressed in US trillion at 2012 valuesDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
EconomicsGrowing consumer classOver 3 billionnew membersof theconsumer classMost growthexpected tooccur in AsiaDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ResourcesFood insecurity vulnerability to climateDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ResourcesFood production and transportationBetween30% – 50% offood is wastedGeneticallymodified cropslikely toincreaseproductivityDemand formeat likely tochange globalconsumptionDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ResourcesGlobal energy demand by sourceDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ResourcesNew sources of ciencyDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
ResourcesRare earth elements & resource nationalismDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
The EnvironmentHeatwaves anddroughtIncreasedintensity ofstormsSea-level riseand floodingDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
The EnvironmentPressures driving global biodiversity lossDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
The EnvironmentConcentrated reliance on 30 crop speciesDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§The UK will be effected by more severe andfrequent weather events as a result ofclimate change. Such events couldoverwhelm local resources, necessitatingmilitary support. There will be an enduringneed for Armed Forces to provide nichecapabilities such as logistics andengineering capabilities across all threeservices. Defence may also be required togenerate a ready supply of manpower or usewarfighting equipment in novel ways to aidcivilian populations.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§By 2045, average global temperatures arelikely to have increased by approximately1.4 C above levels recorded at the end ofthe 20th century.2 Without concertedaction,3 it is unlikely that it will be possibleto prevent global average temperaturesrising more than 2 C above pre-industriallevels.4 2 Kent, C. and Lewis, K., Met Office Hadley Centre (2014), ‘Climate Change for Global Strategic Trends out to 2045’. It is worth noting that futuretemperature predictions are projections based on computer modelling, andhence are subject to the inherent uncertainties involved in such modelling,as well as to the uncertainties associated with any kind of prediction.3 Rogelj, J. et al. (2012), ‘Global Warming Under Old and New ScenariosUsing IPCC Climate Sensitivity Range Estimates’.4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), ‘Fifth AssessmentReport’. Hereafter referred to as ‘IPCC AR5 (2014)’. AR5 data is usedthroughout GST 5 where available; AR4 data is used when AR5.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§Global sea-levels are likely to rise bybetween 0.32–0.38 metres by 2050,although larger increases cannot beruled out.11 11 Jevrejeva, S. et al. (2012), ‘Sea Level Projections to AD2500with a New Generation of Climate Change Scenarios’.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§Without measures to mitigate andadapt to the effects of sea-level rises,by 2045 there could be between 80 and130 million more people at risk fromflooding, three-quarters of them inAsia.13 13Jongman, B. et al. (2012), ‘Global Exposure to River andCoastal Flooding: Long Term Trends and Changes’; Met Office(2013), ‘Sea-Level Rise’ available athttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/ guide/impacts/highend/sea-level.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§In sub-Saharan Africa alone, some 60million people are expected to movefrom ‘desertified’ areas to northernAfrica and Europe by 2020, and thisfigure is highly likely to increase out to2045.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§More species will almost inevitablybecome extinct, with the OECD’sprojections indicating that terrestrialbiodiversity could decrease by up to10% by 2050.20 The UN assesses thatbiodiversity loss has been more rapidin the last 50 years than in any otherperiod in human history,21 20 OECD (2012), ‘Environmental Outlook to 2050’. 21 UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board (2005),‘Ecosystems and Human Well-Being’, available athttp://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/ document.354.aspx.pdf.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§Reducing greenhouse gas emissions islikely to be the most important meansby which climate change is managed –although out to 2045 it appears likelythat the drivers of greenhouse gaseswill continue to increase.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§The financial requirements forhumanitarian assistance are projectedto increase by up to 1,600% over thenext 20 years, in large part due to theeffects of climate change.33 33Webster, M. et al. (2008), ‘The Humanitarian Costs of ClimateChange’.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§The House of Commons DefenceCommittee's (HCDC) inquiry into 'Decisionmaking in Defence Policy' and the findingsset out in the Committee's report publishedon 26 March 2015 “We urge the Government to takeurgent steps to remedy theseweaknesses, and to put in place agenuinely strategic, well-informed andproperly balanced decision-makingmachine.”Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
HealthContinuedimprovementin lifeexpectancyDiseaseoutbreak iloredmedicines,culturedorgans andprostheticsDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
HealthIncrease in non-communicable diseasesNoncommunicablediseasesincreasing1.5 billionadults, 170million childrenoverweight orobeseNoncommunicablediseases majorcause of deathDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
TransportAdvances inmaterials,power systemsandautomationSub-orbitalspace transportDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
InformationImproving‘prediction’Privacy harderto maintainIncreasing riskof cyber attackDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Information‘The Internet of 68,211,456Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Information‘Big Data’Exabytes of data (an Exabyte is a billion gigabytes)Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
InformationPrivacy and anonymityDemand forprivacy likely toincreasePossible to go‘off-line’?Is ‘stealth’ athing of thepast?Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
EducationSimulation,exercises andgamesLife-longlearning andtransferablequalificationsSouth Asiainvestment inScience andTechnologycoursesDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Automation and workUbiquitousrobotsIncreasinglycapable –replacinghumansNew jobs androles forpeople?Working forlonger – moreflexiblyDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Corruption and moneyDevelopingglobal effortsto countercorruptionChanging socialnorms andperspectivesRisinginequality andpotentialunrestDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Corruption and moneyRepresentativegovernment isincreasingEmpowermentof women increasedstabilityDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Corruption and moneyDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Corruption and moneyCrypto currency values and market shareDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Identity and the role of the stateHumanaugmentationChangingrelationshipsState remainsdominantactorChallenges tostates andregimesDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Trends in conflictReducing riskof violentdeathTerrorismCyberincreasinglycentral toconflictDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
§ The culture and ability for expression beyond localcommunities has and will expand. This may cause‘politics of division’.Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Summary§ Congested§ Cluttered§ Contested§ Connected§ Constrained§ ComplexDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Global strategic trendsSetting the strategic contextfor defence and securityLt Col Andrew FergussonDevelopment, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCrown copyright Ministry of Defence 2014
Urbanisation. Over 70% of global population living in cities. 1.3 million . Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre . for Global Strategic Trends out to 2045’. It is worth noting that future temperature predictions are projections based on computer modelling, and
May 02, 2018 · D. Program Evaluation ͟The organization has provided a description of the framework for how each program will be evaluated. The framework should include all the elements below: ͟The evaluation methods are cost-effective for the organization ͟Quantitative and qualitative data is being collected (at Basics tier, data collection must have begun)
Silat is a combative art of self-defense and survival rooted from Matay archipelago. It was traced at thé early of Langkasuka Kingdom (2nd century CE) till thé reign of Melaka (Malaysia) Sultanate era (13th century). Silat has now evolved to become part of social culture and tradition with thé appearance of a fine physical and spiritual .
Dr. Sunita Bharatwal** Dr. Pawan Garga*** Abstract Customer satisfaction is derived from thè functionalities and values, a product or Service can provide. The current study aims to segregate thè dimensions of ordine Service quality and gather insights on its impact on web shopping. The trends of purchases have
On an exceptional basis, Member States may request UNESCO to provide thé candidates with access to thé platform so they can complète thé form by themselves. Thèse requests must be addressed to esd rize unesco. or by 15 A ril 2021 UNESCO will provide thé nomineewith accessto thé platform via their émail address.
̶The leading indicator of employee engagement is based on the quality of the relationship between employee and supervisor Empower your managers! ̶Help them understand the impact on the organization ̶Share important changes, plan options, tasks, and deadlines ̶Provide key messages and talking points ̶Prepare them to answer employee questions
Chính Văn.- Còn đức Thế tôn thì tuệ giác cực kỳ trong sạch 8: hiện hành bất nhị 9, đạt đến vô tướng 10, đứng vào chỗ đứng của các đức Thế tôn 11, thể hiện tính bình đẳng của các Ngài, đến chỗ không còn chướng ngại 12, giáo pháp không thể khuynh đảo, tâm thức không bị cản trở, cái được
Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. 3 Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
