Performance Insight - Eurocontrol.int
Performance Review CommissionPerformance Insight #2 - March 2021Performance InsightPreliminary Impacts of COVID-19on the ANS IndustryAn economic perspectiveMEASURING EUROPEAN AVIATION PERFORMANCEPowered by the Aviation Intelligence UnitPERFORMANCE REVIEW COMMISSIONRue de la Fusée 96, B-1130 Brussels, ce.eu
Page 2BACKGROUNDThis PRC Performance Insight document, has been prepared by the EUROCONTROL Performance Review Unit (PRU) for the PerformanceReview Commission (PRC)The PRC conducts independent measurement, assessment and review of the performance of the Pan-European Air Navigation Services (ANS)system, including its contribution to the efficiency of Pan-European aviation. The PRC strives to identify future improvements and makesrecommendations as appropriate.The PRC maintains open and transparent dialogue with relevant parties, including but not limited to States, Air Navigation Service Providers,Airspace Users, Airports, social dialogue partners, civil-military organisations, international and national organisations, etc.The PRC conducts research into the development of performance measurement. This includes, inter alia, investigating how performance couldbest be described/measured in the long-term, developing and testing proposals for future indicators and metrics and contributing to futureimprovements in performance.The PRC disseminates the results of its analysis to relevant parties, provided that no sensitive data are involved, in order to demonstrate thePRC’s commitment to transparency and to promote the application of PRC analysis.The PRC produces independent ad-hoc studies, either on its own initiative and/or at the request of relevant parties.The PRC’s website address is: s-performance-reviewNOTICEThe PRU has made every effort to ensure that the information and analysis contained in this document are as accurate and complete aspossible. Should you find any errors or inconsistencies we would be grateful if you could please bring them to the PRU’s attention by sendingan email to: PRU-support@eurocontrol.int. EUROCONTROL, 96, rue de la Fusée, B-1130 Brussels, Belgium, http://www.eurocontrol.intThis document is published by the Performance Review Commission in the interest of the exchange of information.It may be copied in whole or in part providing that the copyright notice and disclaimer are included. The information contained in thisdocument may not be modified without prior written permission from the Performance Review Commission.The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of EUROCONTROL, which makes no warranty, either impliedor express, for the information contained in this document, neither does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness or usefulness of this information.The PRC’s website address is: s-performance-review To contact the PRC, please send anemail to: PRU-support@eurocontrol.int.
Page 3Welcome to this PRC Performance Insight publication!Welcome to the second edition of the Performance Review Commission (PRC) PerformanceInsight in which we will inform you about relevant ANS performance related topics!The second Performance Insight is looking at the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the AirNavigation Service industry. It provides an early description of how ANSPs are affected by thecrisis, from an economic perspective, and the measures taken to mitigate the immediate impactsof the crisis.This publication aims to accompany the forthcoming more detailed analysis performed in the ATMCost-Effectiveness (ACE) benchmarking reports, which will examine the consequences of the crisison ANSPs revenues and service provision costs when actual 2020 and 2021 data are available. Italso serves as a starting point showing that the liquidity issues faced by ANSPs will require theexamination of additional financial indicators and their monitoring in the coming years.The analysis presented in this document relies on several data sources, including EUROCONTROLSTATFOR forecasts, COVID-19 Service Units and Revenues Dashboard, as well as ACE data providedby ANSPs in compliance with Decision No. 88 of the Permanent Commission of EUROCONTROL oneconomic information disclosure. More specifically, for the measures taken by ANSPs in responseto the COVID-19 pandemic, information was obtained through direct exchanges with the ACEWorking Group Members as part of the ACE 2019 data validation process, which started in July2020. In addition, public information from IATA, ACI and Airbus websites was also used to describethe wider context.Please note that the PRB has published the following documents on 2nd March 2021: "Advice onthe revision of performance targets for RP3" and "Monitoring Report on the Financial andOperational Impact of COVID-19 on the SES". The latter addresses similar issues as thisPerformance Insight, but based on different data reporting processes and also a differentgeographical scope.We hope that you enjoy reading this Performance Insight.Performance Review Commission
Page 4IntroductionThe outbreak of COVID-19, emerging inChina in late December 2019, affectingEurope and the US from March 2020 andother large aviation markets like India andBrazil from later in the spring, massivelyimpacted the aviation industry. At the timeof writing this paper, one year after the startof the crisis, making reliable forecasts on theevolution of pandemic still remainsextremely difficult due to several sources ofuncertainties: the wide availability of a vaccine in thecoming months and the efficiency of thevaccines given the developments ofseveral variants;persistence of government travelrestrictions due to several "waves" ofcontagion;behavioural changes, especially forbusiness air travel with a morewidespread use of teleconferences; and,consumer confidence and moregenerally the level of economic activity.Anticipating future analysis for the ACE 2020cycle, when the actual impact of thepandemic on ANSPs revenues and costs willfirst be captured, this paper provides: an analysis of the reduction in traffic dueto the COVID-19 pandemic and itsestimated impact on ANSP revenues;and,a summary of the measures adopted byANSPs in order to mitigate the impact ofthe crisis.Impact of COVID-19 crisis on theaviation sector and ANS industrySince March 2020, all European countrieshad to establish various degrees of lockdownfor their populations, close borders orimpose travel restrictions. These measureshad an unprecedented impact on the entireaviation sector, including airports, airlines,aircraft manufacturers, and ANSPs.Concerning European airports, ACI estimatesa -70.8% reduction in passenger traffic in2020, with an associated -68.8% reduction inrevenues compared to the pre-COVIDforecast 1. In November 2020, ACI-Europealso warned that nearly 200 airports couldpossibly face insolvency in the short term 2 ifsufficient government support was notprovided. During the deepest phase of thecrisis, most of the top 30 European airportswith multiple runways closed at least one ofthem and temporarily adopted singlerunway operations. In a few cases, therewere even complete closures for commercialtraffic (e.g. Paris Orly and London City).For European airlines, IATA forecasts 3 a netpost-tax loss representing 38.6% of theirrevenues in 2020, compared to a net profitmargin of 3.1% in 2019. European airlineshave adopted several extraordinarymeasures to reduce their costs and some ofthem also benefited from large scalefinancial support from governments (e.g.recapitalisation, nationalisation, loans, andprovision of government guarantees). Insome cases, these measures were notsufficient to prevent bankruptcy, as forNorwegian filing for bankruptcy protection.Given the magnitude of the crisis and theuncertainty surrounding recovery in traffic,airlines have also moved to cancel aircraftorders or postpone their delivery, impactingthe whole supply chain. Taking Airbus as an1ACI Advisory Bulletin, The impact of COVID-19 on the airport business, 8 December 2020.Airports set out plan for urgent EU and Government support as financial crisis worsens; ACI-Europe; 4November 2020.23Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, IATA, 2020 End-year report, November 2020.
Page 5example, in 2020, only 383 aircraft grossorders had been received in the year,compared to 1 131 in 2019. In the meantime,Airbus delivered a total of 566 commercialaircraft in 2020, 34.4% less than in 2019. The extraordinary impact of the COVID-19pandemic on air traffic can be seen in Figure1 below.Unlike these crises, the current situationcombines both high severity and highpersistence. According to the latest STATFORscenarios, recovery of traffic back to 2019levels is not expected before 2024, even inthe most optimistic scenario, which meansthat ANSPs will have to continue operating atmuch lower traffic levels for many years.Across the Pan-European system, traffic in2020 (measured in composite flight-hours 4)is estimated to be -58% lower than in 2019,and -42% lower than in 2004. The periodcovered by Figure 1 also captures a largecrisis in 2009 and one major disruption in2010: compared to 2008 and it took until 2015(6 years) to recover to pre-crisis levels.The volcanic ash crisis in April 2010resulted in European airspace being fullyclosed for six-and-a-half days, however,this severe but brief impact is notapparent when looking at the annualdata.During the financial crisis in 2009,composite flight-hours dropped by -7%140130120-7%10090ATM/CNS provision costsSTATFOR low2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F20182017201620152014-58%2020 FComposite flight-hoursSTATFOR high20132012200720062005200440Recovery: 6 years2011502010602009Financial crisis702019 COVID-19802008Index (2004 100)110Figure 1: Pan-European system traffic 2004-2024 (est.) and ANS costs (2004-2019)On the operational side, this is raising anumber of new challenges in order to adaptthe offered capacity to much lower demandbut without jeopardizing the deployment ofnew systems and additional workforce whentraffic bounce back.On the economic side, this combination ofhigh severity and high persistence alsomeans that existing absorption mechanismsdesigned to cope with unexpected trafficvariations (e.g. risk sharing mechanisms,legally mandated reserves) might not besufficient for ensuring the resilience ofANSPs. It will therefore be necessary todevelop additional metrics and analysis inIn the ACE reports, the composite-flight hours are the metric used to measure the output of gate-to-gateATM/CNS provision. They combine IFR flight-hours with IFR airport movements. More details on thismetric can be found in Annex 2 of the ACE 2018 report (p.151).4
Page 6order to measure and monitor the impact ofthe COVID-19 pandemic on the ANS industry.Our analysis looks at how the fall in trafficresults in fewer revenues for ANSPs, in turnrequiring them to draw on cash reserves tocover their costs during this time, whichmay lead to financial difficulties as theyexhaust these reserves.Based on data from the EUROCONTROL’sAviation Intelligence dashboard, Figure 2shows the monthly evolution of total enroute service units (TSUs) in theEUROCONTROL area in 2019 and 2020.181614Millions TSUs1210861%-1%-38%4-67%20-87%-58%-84% -82%-60% -61%-63% -61%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2019 Actual TSUs2020 Planned TSUs2020 Actual TSUsFigure 2: Monthly en-route TSU variationbetween 2019 and 2020The dramatic fall in traffic which kicked-offthe crisis in Europe was seen in March 2020and has evolved in four phases since then:1. March: a sudden drop with traffic goingfrom 1% of 2019 in February to -87% inApril;2. April to June: traffic mostly limited tocargo, with flights at around -85% from2019 levels, as most countries were insome form of lockdown;3. July and August: partial recovery for thesummer with traffic levels -67% in Julyand -58% August compared to 2019; and4. August to December: a slightdeterioration in traffic, at around -61%from 2019 levels, as a second wave ofCOVID-19 saw different countriesreintroduce ad-hoc measures after thesummer.With these large decreases, the amountsbilled by ANSPs for en-route and terminalcharges also reduced considerably. In thisrespect, it is important to keep in mind thatANSPs revenues are in their vast majoritymade of en-route and terminal charges(respectively 74% and 16% of the gate-togate ANS revenues collected in the scope ofthe ACE analysis). Other ANS revenuesinclude income from airport operators(around 4%) which correspond to situationswhere terminal charges are charged toairspace users by the airports beforetransferring revenues to the ANSP. The last6% of gate-to-gate ANS revenues are madeof financial income and other revenues(mostly from the governments).Even when ANSPs also earn revenues fromother activities (which are not alwaysreported in their ACE submissions), these willmainly relate to revenues from Oceanic ANS,airport management and commercialactivities which will also be largely impactedby the drop in traffic.In the analysis presented below, only the"revenues from charges" have beenconsidered, with, depending on dataavailability, a focus on en-route revenues.Given the charging arrangements in place(see note below) the under-recoveries dueto lower traffic might be either partially orfully charged to airspace users in futureyears.At pan-European system level, total en-routeservice units in 2020 were -59% lower thanplanned. As a result, when looking at enroute ANS revenues at State level (i.e.including ANSPs, NSAs and MET providers),the estimated under-recovery (actualrevenues less planned revenues) amountedto some - 5B.En-route revenue loss in2020 at pan-Europeansystem level 5 billions
Page 7In SES States, ANSPs operate under the“determined costs” method, which includesspecific risk‐sharing arrangements, aiming atincentivising economic performance. Underthese rules, up to 4.4% of ANSPs’ revenues areat risk in the event that actual traffic issubstantially ( 10% or more) different to thatwhich is planned. The remaining revenuegain/loss (i.e. over-recovery or under-recovery)compared to plan is returned to airspace usersor recovered by ANSPs in future years (usuallyin year n 2 based on charging regulation (EU)2019/317).Following the adoption of CommissionImplementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1627 of 3November 2020 on exceptional measures forthe third reference period (2020-2024), 2020and 2021 will be considered as a single period.In addition, since the 2020 and 2021 unit ratesused for charging purposes were based on draftperformance plans, retroactive adjustments areexpected to be made when the RP3 revisedPerformance Plans are adopted. Theseadjustments will be spread over five to sevenyears.ANSPs in the eight States which are not boundby SES regulations, but which are part of theEUROCONTROL Multilateral Route ChargesSystem apply the “full cost-recovery method”.In this case, all gains/losses compared toplanned revenues are returned/invoiced toairspace users.Despite the magnitude of the loss beingreduced by the traffic risk sharingmechanisms, the time it will take to actuallyconvert chargeable under-recoveries intocash, and the increased risks of bad debt,remain important issues for ANSPs’finances.Although an accurate estimation of the totalANSP revenue reduction (i.e. includingterminal ANS revenues) is not yet available,it can be assumed that the total revenuereduction between 2019 and 2020 will be inthe same order of magnitude as the5Preliminary ACE 2019 data.reduction in the number of service units forthe year 2020 (i.e. -58%).Applying the assumption described above,Figure 3 shows the estimated level of ANSPs2020 gate-to-gate revenues from charges( 3.7B) and compares it to the annualrevenues earned over the 2014-2019 period(between 8.5B and 9.0B).10ANSP revenues from route and terminalcharges, B (2019)Note on the impact of the traffic risk sharingfor ANSPs operating in SES States and in nonSES 43210201420152016En-route2017201820192020 est.TerminalFigure 3: Pan-European system ANSP revenues,2014-2020 (est.)This data shows the change in revenues overtime, as opposed to the difference betweenplanned and actual revenues in 2020discussed earlier.In order to grasp the possible consequencesof this estimated revenue reduction in 2020(- 5.0B compared to 2019), it is helpful tolook at the amount of cash ANSPs had atbank 5 at the end of 2019 ( 2.7B). Althoughthe situation might be very different whenlooking at ANSPs individually, this meansthat, on average, cash reserves held byANSPs were covering only slightly morethan half of the reduction in ANS charges in2020.Given this major cash issue, ANSPs had toimplement a series of exceptional measures,which are discussed in the section below.It is important to keep in mind that thefinancial amounts calculated in the aboveanalysis only constitute an initial estimate, tobe interpreted carefully since it is based onpreliminary data, and on a number ofsimplifying assumptions. More accurateanalysis will be done in the future ACE
Page 8reports when actual 2020 revenues data arecollected from ANSPs. Measures implemented by ANSPsin order to mitigate the impact ofthe COVID-19 pandemicAid from national governments;Loans; andCost-containment measures.Aid from national governments, arepredominantly aimed at safeguardingANSPs’ liquidity and alleviating payroll ison,costcontainment measures involve a broadrange of changes (from tactical adjustmentsto more structural measures) which shouldalso contribute towards slightly reducing theimpact of the crisis on airspace users infuture years. Some State aid may come withcertain conditions attached that requirelonger-termrestructuringorcostcontainment measures to also beimplemented, which is for example the casefor Skyguide.As part of its ACE data validation and analysiscycle, the PRU collected information fromANSPs on the measures implemented in2020, or planned in 2021, in response to thechallenges brought by the extraordinarydrop in traffic demand. This was completed,when possible, with other sources ofinformation, such as press releases, and thiswork will continue as part of the ACE project.The aim is to provide the reader with aninventory of actions taken by ANSPs,described in a qualitative manner.Based on the information collected so far,the range of measures implemented byANSPs can be grouped into three maincategories:Aid fromnationalgovernmentCost-containment measuresLoansStaffNon-staffCapital expenditureANS CR, ANS Finland, Austro Control, DFS(b), LGS(a,b), LPS(b), NATS(a), NAVIAIR, skeyes(a), Slovenia ControlAlbcontrol, ARMATS, Avinor, BULATSA, Croatia Control,DCAC Cyprus, DSNA, EANS, ENAIRE, HungaroControl, IAA,LFV, LVNL, M-NAV, MUAC, NAV Portugal, PANSA,ROMATSA, Skyguide, SMATSA, UkSATSESkyguide (b)Avinor(b)Albcontrol(a), ARMATS,Croatia Control, DHMI(a),DSNA, EANS(a),HungaroControl, IAA,LVNL(c), MATS(a), NAVPortugal, Oro Navigacija(a),PANSA, ROMATSA,Sakaeronavigatsia, MATSMOLDATSASakaeronavigatsia(a) EUROCONTROL Loan. (b) Increase in equity. In the case of Avinor from the mother company, which is a State ownedenterprise. (c) LVNL operates in a specific environment where the balance in its current accounts is ensured by Treasurybanking.Table 1: Mitigation measures implemented by ANSPs in 2020 or planned in 2021Table 1 above shows that the 38 ANSPsparticipating to the ACE benchmarkingproject have reported the implementation ofexceptional measures targeting, in almost allcases, a combination of operating andcapital-related costs. ANSPs listed in the firstrow are those implementing all types ofmeasures(affecting staff,non-staffoperating costs, capital e
Performance Review Commission Performance Insight #2 - March 2021 Preliminary Impacts of COVID-19 on the ANS Industry An economic perspective Performance Insight MEASURING EUROPEAN AVIATION PERFORMANCE Powered by the Aviation Intelligence Unit PERFORMANCE REVIEW COMMISSION Rue de la Fusée 96, B-1130 Brussels, Belgium pru-support@eurocontrol.int
EUROCONTROL Extended MTCD Specification EUROCONTROL-SPEC-139 EUROCONTROL 2017 Ongoing STD-061 AF3 3.2.1 Required for 3.2.4, but system implementation covered by 3.2.1 0 CS on free route CEN 2018 Not planned 0 EUROCONTROL Specification for ASM Systems Interfaces Supporting Advanced Flexible Use of Airspace EUROCONTROL 2016 Ongoing AF3 3.1.2 3.1.3 0
Stephen Peterson EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre Brétigny-sur-Orge, France stephen.peterson@eurocontrol.int Magnus Axholt EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre Brétigny-sur-Orge, France magnus.axholt@eurocontrol.int Stephen R. Ellis NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, California, United States sellis@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Performance Review Report An Assessment of Air Traffic Management in Europe during the Calendar Year 2017 Performance Review Commission May 2018 EUROCONTROL. Background This report has been produced by the Performance Review Commission (PRC). The PRC was established . Eurocontrol area Variation 98 2016 52.9 -3.5% .
EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate Edition Number: 15.0 Edition Validity Date: 27-10-2021 Classification: White Page: 1 DOCUMENT CONTROL Document Title FUA AMC CADF OPERATIONS MANUAL Document Subtitle Network Operations Document Reference Edition Number 15.0 Edition Validity Date 27-10-2021 Classification White Accessibility Internet (www.eurocontrol.int)
SESAR HUMAN PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT PROCESS V1 TO V3 - INCLUDING VLD 2 Authoring & Approval Authors of the document Name/Beneficiary Position/Title Date Catherine Chalon Morgan (EUROCONTROL) P16.4.1 Project Manager 25/11/2013 Renée Pelchen-Medwed (EUROCONTROL Task Contributor 25/02/2016 Dariia AVERKOVA (EUROCONTROL)
character Name BackgrouNd aligNmeNt exPerieNce PoiNts atk BoNus damage/tyPe acrobatics (dex) animal handling (Wis) arcana (int) athletics (str) deception (cha) history (int) insight (Wis) intimidation (cha) investigation (int) medicine (Wis) Nature (int) casting your spells. Perception (Wis) Performance ( cha) Persuasion (cha) 16 religion (int .
Rain Dial Plus Series Controller. 15 Model Numbers: RD6PLUS-INT RD9PLUS-INT RD12PLUS-INT RD6PLUS-INT RD9PLUS-INT RD12PLUS-INT Ref. # Description Part Numbers Part Numbers Part Numbers 1
American Revolution in Europe working to negotiate assistance from France, Spain, and the Netherlands. Foreign Assistance French ultimately provided critical military and financial assistance Spain and the Netherlands provided primarily financial assistance to the American cause. A comparison of the resources held by the British and by the colonies: The population of the thirteen colonies .
