NATO’s Operational Planning Process The COPD Comprehensive .

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NATO’s OperationalPlanning ProcessThe COPD Comprehensive OperationsPlanning DirectiveLieutenant Colonel Mehmet Salar, TUR-ANATO School – Joint Operations Department1NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO’s Operational PlanningProcess (OPP) and COPDAgenda: NATO Crisis Management Processand Planning Categories Collaborative mindset The Operations Planning Processin the Comprehensive OperationsPlanning Directive (COPD) Take away and summary (incl. Q & A)2NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO Crisis Management E PROCESSHQ NATONIWS (NATO Intelligence and Warning System)HQ NATO MC 133 (Operations Planning System)HQ NATOACOCEP (Civil Emergency Planning)Comprehensive Operations Planning DirectiveStrategic Concept

Planning Categories for FUTURE TASKSADVANCE PLANNING for CURRENT TASKSCRISIS RESPONSE PLANNINGCONTINGENCYSTANDINGOPERATIONPLAN (COP)DEFENCE PLAN (SDP)PLAN (OPLAN)-GenericPossible riskNot executableBasis for OPLANMC approved-SpecificExecutableCOM TermsOf ReferenceNAC approvedNATO UNCLASSIFIED-Response to crisisCOP-basedSpecificExecution capableNAC approved

From GOP to COPDACO GUIDELINES TOOPERATIONAL PLANNING2005NEW COMPREHENSIVEOPERATIONS PLANNINGDIRECTIVE ATIONALPLANNINGOPERATIONALPLANNINGNATO UNCLASSIFIED

Collaborative PlanningAs part of the collaborative planning process documents submitted to the NAC will also be passed to subordinate Cdrs

The Evolutionsequentialparallelconverging Collaboration”A process where two or more people ororganisations work together to realise sharedgoals”NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Philosophy & Intent Horizontal and Vertical Collaboration Knowledge Development Planning ExecutionTransparencyConcurrenceCommanders & StaffsServices and FunctionsCivil & Military EntitiesFull exploitation of the wide range of expertiseiot ensure common understanding of whatneeds to be done (comprehensive approach) Enhanced effect – sooner NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Requirements Common doctrine, SOP & SOIsCo-location – embedded planning teamsIntegration of civil and military actorsConnectivity Personal Technical (the collaborative informationenvironment) 3 level collaborationSTAGES OF THE PROCESSNATO UNCLASSIFIEDStrategic PPSOPGProductOperational PPJOPGProductTactical PPOPGProduct

The CollaborativeInformation EnvironmentSynchronous Collaboration Tools:TOPFASJCHATTOPFASVTCAsynchronous Collaboration Tools: WEB portals/Wise Document and management systems E-mail10NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Planning and Plans“Planning is everything; plans are nothing.”“No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”Field Marshal Helmuth Graf von Moltke

Guiding Documents The Comprehensive OperationsPlanning Directive(Trial version - Feb 2010)(INTERIM V1.0 – Dec 2010) MC 133(Operational Planning System)Letter of promulgation12NATO UNCLASSIFIED

COPD Planning Phases

Joint OperationalPlanning L

Phase 1 – Situation Awareness

Phase 1 – Situation AwarenessPurpose: To develop and maintain a level of understanding to supportoperational assessments and the provision of operational levelof advice and decision making to SACEUR during the planningfor and conduct of operations.Products: Commander’s requests for information; Key judgements about the situation in the area (risks andthreats); Conditions, trends and tendencies in the area; Assessment of NATO indicators and warnings.NATO UNCLASSIFIED

New type of conflictDiIn plofo mrm atat icionNon lethalMPECUGSrAiyrtAXXXXXXNonlethalMEc ilion tarom yicTraditional ApproachComprehensive ApproachUAVGHPMESIIAgentsHomelandPWCorpsXXMarine ExpeditionaryX ForceJSTARSecIS isioR nCIE / VIEMEU / OGAs Corps / MEF/ Fleet / NAF M on M (Attrition-based) Tactical Independent Symmetrical Massed Forces Massed Fires Lethality Combat17AlliesPrLIF / ODAs Joint Force Commander (JFC) PMEC on PMESII (Effects-based) Strategic / Operational Interdependent / Nested Asymmetrical Massed Electrons Precision Fires / ISR Lethal and Nonlethal Combat / PKO / HA / CMONATO UNCLASSIFIED

Strategic Design

The four Instruments of Power(MPEC) Military. The military is NATO’s main instrument. It refers to the applicationof military power, including the threat or use of lethal and non-lethal force, tocoerce, deter, contain or defeat an adversary, including the disruption anddestruction of its critical military and non-military capabilities. Political. The political instrument refers to the use of political power, inparticular in the diplomatic arena cooperating with various actors, toinfluence an adversary or to create advantageous conditions. Economic. The economic instrument generally refers to initiatives andsanctions designed to affect the flow of goods and services, as well asfinancial support to state and non-state actors involved in a crisis. Civil. The civil instrument refers to the use of powers contained within suchareas as judiciary, constabulary, education, public information and civilianadministration and support infrastructure, which can lead to access tomedical care, food, power and water. It also includes the administrativecapacities of international, governmental and non-governmentalorganizations (NGO). The civil instrument is controlled and exercised bysovereign nations, IOs and NGOs.NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Transition to System of Systems AnalysisToday’s adversary is a dynamic, adaptive foe who operates withina complex, interconnected operational environmentMilitary focused ontime-force-spaceKPMESII StrengthsKey alBi/Tri-dimensional20RelationshipsNATO UNCLASSIFIED

Understand the environmentand your adversaries

Phase 2 – Assessment andOperational Appreciation

Phase 2 – Assessment andOperational AppreciationPurpose: to understand the strategic situation and the natureof the problem; to understand NATO’s desired end state andobjectives; to contribute operational advice to SACEUR; to assess the operational viability of strategicresponse options .Product: Commander’s operational advice.NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Phase 2 – Assessment andOperational AppreciationOperationalAdviceBriefing

Phase 3 – ResponseOptions/Orientation

Phase 3 – ResponseOptions/OrientationPurpose: to determine the operational problem that must besolved; to determine specific operational conditions that mustbe achieved; to identify the key operational factors to identify any limitations on the commander’s freedomof action.Product: Comprehensive Preparation of the OperationalEnvironment (CPOE). The operational design. Commander's planning guidance.NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Phase 3 – ResponseOptions/OrientationInitiate OperationalOrientationOperational OrientationReview nningDirectiveOther strategicanalysis,assessmentsUnderstand theOperationalEnvironment and MainActorsOperational FactorsTime/Space/Forces/ActorsInformationRequired Civil-MilitaryInteractionComplimentary action,mutual support, deconflictionThe purpose of mission analysis is to establishprecisely the operational results to be achievedand to identify critical operational requirements,limitations on freedom of action, and inherentrisks. It is driven by the strategic assessments,direction and guidance and further influenced byoperational estimates, CPOE as well as advicefrom subordinate commands and cooperatingorganisations.AssumptionsLikely actor behaviorProbable future eventsCommander’sEstimateOperational RequirementsCritical capabilitiesPreconditions for successCritical InformationCrisis Response MeasuresStaff FunctionalEstimatesAnalyze the MissionLimits onFreedom of ActionConstraints, RestraintsOperational RisksTime/Space/ForceMitigationCOG AnalysisWhat can be exploited?What must be protected?Advice fromcooperating IO/GO/NGOsOperational DesignObjectives, LOO, effects,actions, DPsForce Capability/ C2Initial Force capability,and C2 RequirementsMission AnalysisBriefCPOEOperational PlanningDirectiveRequests to SACEUR(CRMs, ROE,.)Guidance for COAdevelopmentAdvice fromSubordinatesOperational FactorsStrategic ContextOperationalContextLevelJFC

Strategic Design

Key Collaborative Output Phase 3The Operational DesignAction:The process of engagingany Alliance instrument at eachlevel in the engagement space inorder to create (a) specificeffect(s) in support of anobjective.Objective: A clearly defined andattainable goal to be achieved inorder to establish conditionsrequired to achieve a higherobjective and/or the desired endstate.Effect: A change in thebehavioural or physical state of asystem (or system elements), thatresults from one or more actions,or other causes.From Strategic tate: The NAC approvedset of required conditions withinthe engagement space that definean acceptable concludingsituation to be attained at the endof a strategic fectActi StrategicObjectiveAcceptableConditionDesiredEnd tem: A functionally,physically, or behaviourallyrelated group of regularlyinteracting or inter-dependentelements forming a unified whole.29Decisive PointA point from which a hostile orfriendly centre of gravity can bethreatened. This point may existin time, space or the informationenvironment.Lines of Operation.In a campaign or operation, alogical line (s) linking effects anddecisive conditions in time andpurpose to an objective.To Operational designNATO UNCLASSIFIEDCentre of Gravity.Characteristics, capabilities orlocalities from which a nation ,an alliance, a military force orother grouping derives itsfreedom of action, physicalstrength or will to fight.

Operational DesignAction:The process of engagingany Alliance instrument at eachlevel in the engagement space inorder to create (a) specificeffect(s) in support of anobjective.ActionEffectDPActionEnd ConditionEffectAc ti eptableConditionEnd-State: The NAC approvedset of required conditions withinthe engagement space that definean acceptable concludingsituation to be attained at the endof a strategic tuationObjective: A clearly defined andattainable goal to be achieved inorder to establish conditionsrequired to achieve a higherobjective and/or the desired endstate.Effect: A change in thebehavioural or physical state of asystem (or system elements), thatresults from one or more actions,or other causes.ActionnActioEffectSystem: A functionally,physically , or behaviourallyrelated group of regularlyinteracting or inter-dependentelements forming a unified ceptableAcceptableConditionConditionsDesiredEnd isive PointA point from which a hostile orfriendly centre of gravity can bethreatened. This point may existin time, space or the informationenvironment.Lines of Operation.In a campaign or operation, alogical line (s) linking effects anddecisive conditions in time andpurpose to an objective.NATO UNCLASSIFIEDCentre of Gravity.Characteristics, capabilities orlocalities from which a nation ,an alliance, a military force orother grouping derives itsfreedom of action, physicalstrength or will to fight.

3- STELLARIA IS NOT INTERFIRING WITH SHIPPING IN JOA42-SHIPPING TRAFFICIN JOA UTILISE VTMS1-PIRACY NO LONGER INPACTS ON FON1Maritime traffic controleffective2HA ships reachdestination SPODsHA delivery enabledREGIONAL STABILTYTYTAN SECURITY27-IAG Groups ACTIVITIES MITIGATED31SLOC in JOA:sufficientlysecure to3PIRACYexercisefreedom ofHostile interferencewith shippingnavigation foracceptablethe delivery HAStellaria is complyingwith internationalmaritime lawsSLOC sufficientlysecure to permitFoN and thedelivery of HA87-ARM’S REGISTRATION PROGRAM SUCCESSFULIAGs threats contained5-DELIVERY HA IN NE TYTAN IS ENABLED24-Ports and LOCs established,secured and maintained65IAGs/MA Security in NETytanAAA22-Tytan SF capabilities improved by NIMFOR assistanceSufficient Security establishedand maintained for HA deliveriesachievedPODs & LOCs operationalTERRORIST GROUP ACTIVITIES MITIGATEDA secure andstableenvironment isachieved in Tytan8aTerrorist threat limitedSUFFICIENT STABILITY INTYTAN TO HANDOVER TO FOFKAMON RECOGNISE TYTAN SOVEREGNTYEffectivecooperation withHNSTELLARIA IS COMPLIYINGWITH INTERNATIONA COMMUNITY9ARM’S REGISTRATION PROGRAM SUCCESSFUL10TERRORIST GROUPACTIVITIES MITIGATEDKAM & STE deterredfrom actions againstTYTTYT support NIMFORKAMONPETRACEROS Stability inTytanINFLUENCE11Malign influencemarginalizedHA delivery sufficient for the provision of DRPEsimprovedTYTAN OPPOSITION INDEMOCRATIC PROCESS12Coordination with otherstakeholdersestablishedInitiation G----G 65BASIC NEEDS IN NE TYTANPROVIDEDBASIC INTERNAL SECURITY PROVIDEDTYTANPUBLIC PERCEPTION OFTYTAN SF IMPROVEDUNMEC PROGRAMS ENABLEDIOs NGOs SUFFICENTLY COOPERATINGStability ismaintained in theEast Cerasianregion13UNMEC programssustainableNATOG 65------G 250UNCLASSIFIEDTransition G 250------G 365StabilizationCOGs:TYT:Population supportNIMFOR: Effectiverelationship with otheractorsSTE: Credible instruments ofPowerKAMON: Armed ForcesAAA / MA / IAGs / Piracy: PETBase of OperationsA sufficiently secure and stable environment in East Cerasia to allow the delivery ofhumanitarian aid and to set the conditions for the handover of security responsibilities to aCerasian Union force, thereby allowing an orderly disengagement of NATO-led forces.MARITIME SECURITYOperational Design (example SFJE 10)Oct 2010

Phase 3 – ResponseOptions/OrientationInitiate OperationalOrientationOperational OrientationReview nningDirectiveOther strategicanalysis,assessmentsUnderstand theOperationalEnvironment and MainActorsOperational FactorsTime/Space/Forces/ActorsInformationRequired Civil-MilitaryInteractionComplimentary action,mutual support, deconflictionThe purpose of mission analysis is to establishprecisely the operational results to be achievedand to identify critical operational requirements,limitations on freedom of action, and inherentrisks. It is driven by the strategic assessments,direction and guidance and further influenced byoperational estimates, CPOE as well as advicefrom subordinate commands and cooperatingorganisations.AssumptionsLikely actor behaviorProbable future eventsCommander’sEstimateOperational RequirementsCritical capabilitiesPreconditions for successCritical InformationCrisis Response MeasuresStaff FunctionalEstimatesAnalyze the MissionLimits onFreedom of ActionConstraints, RestraintsOperational RisksTime/Space/ForceMitigationCOG AnalysisWhat can be exploited?What must be protected?Advice fromcooperating IO/GO/NGOsOperational DesignObjectives, LOO, effects,actions, DPsForce Capability/ C2Initial Force capability,and C2 RequirementsMission AnalysisBriefCPOEOperational PlanningDirectiveRequests to SACEUR(CRMs, ROE,.)Guidance for COAdevelopmentAdvice fromSubordinatesOperational FactorsStrategic ContextOperationalContextLevelJFC

Phase 4a –CONOPS Development

Phase 4a –CONOPS DevelopmentPurpose: Determine how best to carry out operations that willaccomplish the mission.Product: Concept of operations. Proposed target sets and, as appropriate, targetcategories. Rules of Engagement Request (ROEREQ). Combined Joint Statement of Requirements(CJSOR).NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Course of ActionCOA 1CO A 2COA 3 A method for accomplishing the mission. A way to implement the operational design by arrangingactions in space and time in order set the conditionsrequired to reach the End State.Who, what, when, where, why and howNATO UNCLASSIFIED

Phase 4a –CONOPS DevelopmentDecisionBriefing

STMENTSGameFacilitatorKey Facts/AssumptionsMapSynch MatrixSpecialist StaffGameRefereeRed PlayersRed COALeadWHITEGame Map/TokensOwn COALeadCELLRecorderComponent LNOGREENCELLAdditional RecorderBlue Players

COA – Decision BriefingP h as e 1P has e 2Ph as e 3Ph as e 1Inten tCOGsOwnE n em yO p D e signDP sO w n/O PF O RO bjec tiv esE nd State sO p T im e lin eA ssu m ptionsC2Arra nge m en ts(T as k O rg an iz ation)D e scriptionS tart/E ndD e cis iv eP oin tsa ch ie vedS ync hron iz ationm a trixR eq ues tsF orInfo(R FIs)C m d r’sC ritica lInfoR equ irem ents(C C IR )NATO UNCLASSIFIEDC om m a nde r’sD ec ision P ointsTa sksto Tro ops

Phase 4b –OPLAN Development

Phase 4b –OPLAN DevelopmentPurpose: to develop the arrangements and further specify therequired activities; to implement and specify the concept of operations; to provide a basis for planning bysubordinate/supporting commands.Product: Crisis Response Planning: an executable OPLAN. Advance Planning: Contingency Plan (COP), or Standing Defence Plan (SDP).NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Phase 5 – Execution/Assessment/Plan ReviewExecution requires the command and control ofmilitary forces and interaction with other non-militarymeans to conduct integrated, coordinated orsynchronised actions that create desired effects.Based on assessments and on evaluation of progressthe plan will be adjusted accordingly.

Phase 6 – TransitionThe purpose is to develop and coordinate OPLAN forthe handover of responsibility to the UN, otherinternational organisations (e.g. EU) or indigenousactor in the crisis area and withdraw NATO forces in acontrolled manner so as to avoid this action being adestabilising influence in the region.

Summary & take away (1) It is a trial/interimversion An evolution, not arevolution Still discrepancies A lot of good – newideas in COPDNATO UNCLASSIFIED

Summary & take away (2) Different mindset – Comprehensive Approach(MPEC) Staff at several levels will collaborate to producethe deliverables in concert Increased inclusion and transparency Increased number of actors Increased interaction. Transparency and information management The planning outputs has not changed a lot –deliverables are the same (CONOPS, OPLAN)NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Summary & take away (3) The Operational Planning Process continues toevolve. There are still too many moving parts Working definitions – terminology still to beratified COPD – Still under continuous review Lots of associated doctrinal work (handbooks,AJPs, etc.NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Questions46NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Current SituationEach actor produces uncoordinated actions that generate unplanned effectsRESULTCrisis solution impossible to predictSuccess guaranteed only by continuous IC presenceLong term commitment (and higher cost) as a consequence

Comprehensive ApproachOutcomeENDSTATEA Comprehensive Approach seeks to produce coordinated actionsaimed at realizing desired effects in order to achieve an agreed end state.

JPB/JFC, Main and FECurrent SituationOPERATIONAL STRUCTUREJHQ MAINCOMPOLA DCOSSUPPORT OF STAFFSPECIAL S TAF FBI MKNOW LED GEMANA GE MEN TDIREC TOR A TEOPERA TIO NSDIREC TOR A TEKNOW LED GECEN TREEXERCISE &PREPARATIONJOINTPOLICY APPLICATION &LESSONS IDENTIFIED/LESSONS LEARNEDJT EFFECTSMANAGEMENTJOIN TPLANSSYNCHR ONI SA TIO N &EXECU TI ONJOIN TASSESSMEN TSITCEN / CJOCCOMJHQ FE/DJSEFACILITIESMANAGEMENTRESOUR CESDIREC TOR A TELO GIS TI CSRESOUR CESCO M & INFORMATIO NSYSTEMSFINA NCIA LRESOUR CESENGINEERHU MA NRESOUR CESJLSG HQ (Deployed)Cos FwdFS EJLSG

ACO GUIDELINES TO OPERATIONAL PLANNING 2005 NEW COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONS PLANNING DIRECTIVE 2010 OPERATIONAL PLANNING STRATEGIC COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL PLANNING From GOP to COPD . financial support to state and non-state actors involved in a crisis. Civil . The civil instrument refers to the use of powers .

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