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Global Employment Trends for Youth 2020 – Technology and the future of jobsGlobal Employment Trendsfor Youth 2020XTechnology and the future of jobs

XGlobal Employment Trendsfor Youth 2020Technology and the future of jobsInternational Labour Office Geneva

Copyright International Labour Organization 2020First published 2020Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the UniversalCopyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced withoutauthorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation,application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office,CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: rights@ilo.org. The International Labour Officewelcomes such applications.Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may makecopies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find thereproduction rights organization in your country.Global Employment Trends for Youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobsInternational Labour Office – Geneva: ILO, 2020ISBN 978-92-2-133505-4 (print)ISBN 978-92-2-133506-1 (web pdf)youth employment / youth unemployment / labour market analysis /labour force participation / employment policy / developed countries /developing countries / future of work13.01.3The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice,and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever onthe part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions restssolely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the InternationalLabour Office of the opinions expressed in them.Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercialproduct or process is not a sign of disapproval.Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at www.ilo.org/publnsProduced by the Publications Production Unit (PRODOC) of the ILO.Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy-editing, layout and composition,proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution.The ILO endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managedin an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner.Code: DTP-CORREDIT-PMSERVCover photo: iStock.com/svetikd

3PrefaceThe ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work, adopted by ILO constituents onthe occasion of the Centenary of the International Labour Organization (June 2019), callsupon the ILO to direct its efforts to, inter alia, “developing effective polic ies aimed atgenerating full, productive and freely chosen employment and decent work opportunitiesfor all, and in particular facilitating the transition from education and training to work, withan emphasis on the effective integration of young people into the world of work”.The 2020 edition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth seeks to inform the design andimplementation of such policies based on an update of key youth labour market indicators and in-depth assessments of trends and issues in the world of work facing youngwomen and men.The report also comes at a critical juncture. As part of efforts to achieve SustainableDevelopment Goal 8 to “[p]romote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth,full and productive employment and decent work for all”, the international community wascalled upon to, by 2020, (i) substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment,education or training (NEET); and (ii) develop and operationalize a global strategy for youthemployment. As this report shows, at the start of a new decade, the target to meaningfullyreduce the proportion of youth NEET will be missed, highlighting the need to redoubleefforts to generate decent jobs for the next generation of workers. Furthermore, youthlabour markets around the world face a number of important challenges: the globaleconomy remains sluggish as geopolitical tensions, social unrest and global trade barriershave dragged on growth. Recent epidemics carry the potential to further slow economicactivity. These developments are particularly detrimental to youth as their employmentprospects, relative to older workers, are more sensitive to economic downturns.This edition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth focuses on the impact of technological advances on youth labour markets. It analyses both opportunities and risksfor youth in terms of job destruction and creation, the use of digital technology to improvelabour market programmes, and sharing productivity gains. Policy responses to addressthe potential risks are also explored. I hope this report will be a valuable tool in shapinga future of work with full and productive employment and decent work for all womenand men, including for young people.Sangheon LeeDirectorEmployment Policy Department

iStock.com/Vladimir Vladimirov

5ContentsPreface .3Acknowledgements .11Abbreviations .12Executive summary .131.Global and regional trends in youth employment .201.1The youth labour force participation rate is decreasing globally .241.2The share of young people in employment is also declining .261.3Youth enrolment in education shows positive trends .281.4Youth unemployment rates are stable but remain higher than those for adults331.5The potential of young people is not being fully harnessed .361.6Employment quality challenges persist .391.7Technology is transforming labour market opportunities for young peoplebut also presenting them with new challenges .49Chapter references .502.Jobs for young people in an evolving technological landscape .522.1Technological advances can both mitigate and exacerbate the employmentchallenges faced by young people .542.2Technological anxieties are often more pronounced among the young .542.3Labour market impacts of technological advances differ across age groups .592.4Risk of automation is highest in jobs held by young people .622.5Higher education provides entry to less automatable jobs, while vocationaltraining is associated with more automatable jobs .68Automatable jobs are associated with subsequently more difficult labourmarket transitions, particularly for young people .702.7Skill-related alternatives to automatable occupations are themselves at risk .742.8New policies are required to ensure a bright future of workfor young women and men .78Chapter references .792.63.Occupational changes and the role of public employment servicesin helping young people to navigate the labour market .823.1Shifts in occupational demand for entry-level jobs .843.2Impact of digital technology on public employment services .923.3Certain challenges need to be tackled in the adoption of new technologiesby public employment services . 1013.4Conclusions . 102Chapter references . 103

6Global Employment Trends for Youth 20204.Unequal distribution of the benefits of technological changeamong young people . 1064.1Technological change can lead to greater inequality . 1084.2Wage inequalities are particularly pronounced among the young . 1094.3Returns to education have decreased in recent years . 1114.4The level of educational attainment has a strong influence on NEET ratesin most but not all subregions . 1154.5Policy messages . 122Chapter references . 1235.Policy implications: Preparing a better future for young people . 1245.1New technologies present both risks and opportunities in the creationof decent jobs for young people . 1265.2New technologies have the potential to enhance the supportprovided to young people . 1295.3Involvement of young people in social dialogue is essential . 132Chapter references . 134Appendix A. Regional, country and income groupings . 138Appendix B. ILO modelled estimates and projections . 140Appendix C. Additional tables . 148Appendix D. Methodology used to estimate the risk of automation of jobs . 174Appendix E. Labour Force Micro Database . 178Appendix F. Meta-information on Burning Glass Technologies data . 184List of boxes1.1YouthSTATS: A new database on youth in the labour market .241.2The school-to-work transition for youth in Latin America and the Caribbean .291.3Investing in young people’s skills and education is critical to achievingthe Sustainable Development Goals .311.4Finding the first job in times of crisis .341.5Informality in the Southern African Development Community .401.6Youth migration: The desire to migrate and its implicationsfor the labour market .482.1Structural transformation and young workers .582.2Robots and youth employment .602.3Job-to-job transitions among young workers in Europe and the United States662.4Gas plant operators, skill-related occupations and the risk of automation .773.1Most frequently advertised jobs and skills shifts in the private sector in India .883.2Morocco’s digital strategy for the promotion of youth employment .983.3The innovation lab at France’s public employment service . 1004.1Demand for and supply of young workers with a tertiary educationbefore and after the global financial crisis . 120

ContentsList of figures1.1Overview of the global labour market for youth, 2019 .231.2Change in female and male labour force participation rates,by age group and subregion, 1999–2019 (percentage points) .261.3Employment and educational status of young people in Latin Americaand the Caribbean by age, selected countries, 2018 (thousands) .291.4Share of youth population in education, global and by region and sex,latest available year (percentages) .301.5Share of 15–24-year-olds enrolled in vocational education, globaland by subregion and sex, 2018 (percentages) .321.6Youth unemployment rate by duration of unemployment spell (percentages)and average duration of unemployment spell (months), selected countries,2000–18 .341.7Ratio of youth-to-adult unemployment rate, global and by subregion, 2019 .351.8Youth NEET rates, global and by subregion and sex, 2005 and 2019(percentages) .381.9Youth and adult informality rates, global and by subregion, 2016(percentages) .391.10 Employment status of youth and adult workers, global and by subregion,2019 (percentages) .431.11Percentage change (annualized) in the prevalence of own-accountand contributing family work among young people and adults beforeand after the global economic crisis of 2007–08, selected countries .44Working poverty (extreme and moderate) among young peopleand adults, global and by country income group, 1991–2023[index 100 in base year, 1991] .461.13Potential Net Migration Index scores for young people,2015–17 (percentages) .492.1Share of respondents who believe that there will be new, better-paying jobsif robots are able to take on much of the work currently performedby humans (percentages) .55Share of respondents who report using the Internet at least occasionallyand/or owning a smartphone (percentages) .562.3a Perceptions in the European Union as to whether current job could be doneby a robot or by artificial intelligence in the future (percentages) .572.3b Perceptions among Japanese workers regarding the impactof artificial intelligence on the future of one’s job (percentages) .572.4a Number of installed industrial robots per 10,000 employeesin the manufacturing industry, selected countries, 2017 .602.4b Projected compound annual growth rate in annual shipments of industrialrobots, selected countries and subregions, 2019–21 (percentages) .611.122.22.5Probability (risk) of automation by age in OECD and low- andmiddle-income countries .622.6Probability (risk) of automation by age and country, OECD countries.632.7Probability (risk) of automation by age and country, low- andmiddle-income countries .647

8Global Employment Trends for Youth 20202.8Difference in employment shares of young people aged 15–24 and thoseaged 25–29 in occupations arranged by automatability (percentage points) .652.9Job-to-job transition rates by age, United States, 1997 and 2012 (percentages) .662.10Changes in the share of employment, by skill level and country income group,1991–2018 (percentages) .672.11Relationship between educational attainment and the risk of automationof workers’ jobs .692.12Risk of automation by age and type of education .692.13Odds of being unemployed, in formal education or inactive for workerswith experience in automatable jobs compared to those with experiencein non-automatable jobs .71Odds of being in education, in education and work, in training or NEETfor workers with experience in automatable jobs compared to thosewith experience in non-automatable jobs .72Odds of being unemployed, in formal education or inactive for workerswith experience in automatable jobs compared to those with experience innon-automatable jobs, by level of educational attainment .72Odds of being in education, in education and work, in training or NEETfor workers with experience in automatable jobs compared to those withexperience in non-automatable jobs, by level of educational attainment .732.17Skill-relatedness of occupations .762.18Distribution of risk of automation across occupations .773.1aShare of job vacancies by level of experience, selected countries,2012 and 2018 (percentages) .85Change in the share of job vacancies by level of experience,selected countries, 2012 and 2018 (percentages) .86Job vacancies by level of experience, India, 2015–19 (percentages) .873.3a Skills most sought after by employers, by type, selected countries,2012 and 2018 (percentage share of top 20 skills mentioned in entry-leveljob vacancies) .893.3b Rate of change in skills most sought after by employers, by type,2012 and 2018 .902. between wage inequality (Gini coefficient) among prime-ageworkers (30–49 years) and wage inequality among young workers(15–29 years), selected countries, 2016 . 1094.2Change in wage inequality (Gini coefficient) among workers aged15–49 years before and after the global financial crisis of 2007–08,selected countries .

2.2 Technological anxieties are often more pronounced among the young . 2.3 Labour market impacts of technological advances differ across age groups . 2.4 Risk of automation is highest in jobs held by young people . 2.5 Higher education provides entry to less automatable jobs, while vocational

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