Beyond The Noise The Megatrends Of Tomorrow’s World 1
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s WorldBeyond the NoiseThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World1
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s WorldDie Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in derDeutschen Nationalbibliografie. Detaillierte bibliografischeDaten sind im Internet über http://dnb.ddb.de abrufbar.The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s gement102Herausgeber: Deloitte Consulting GmbHAging1082. Auflage, Juli 2017Dematerialization114Scarcity120Blurring Boundaries126Erosion of Governance132Displacement138 Deloitte Consulting GmbH, München 2017Concluding Words144LOGOPUBLIX Fachbuch Verlag, MünchenSources148Satz: Deloitte Design StudiosDruck: LOGOPRINT GmbH, MünchenAbout the Authors164Contact165Alle Rechte vorbehalten.Nachdruck, auch auszugsweise, verboten.Kein Teil dieses Werkes darf ohne schriftliche Einwilligung des Verlagesin irgendeiner Form (Fotografie, Mikrofilm oder ein anderes Verfahren),reproduziert oder unter Verwendung elektronischer Systemeverarbeitet, vervielfältigt oder verbreitet werden.ISBN 978-3-927985-50-623
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s WorldWe all have to makedecisions in spite ofan uncertain future.Imagining the futurethrough scenariosenables us to identifyrobust strategic choicesthat would fit to anyplausible future, and tokeep strategies flexiblein case the futuresurprises us.Take a step back and consider this: isit easier to make assumptions aboutthe future today, or some years backin the last millennium? Most peoplewould agree that it is harder to makesense of “it all” today, compared to themore clear-cut and bipolar world inwhich we grew up.We live in a world of ever faster technology cycles, hyperconnected andnervously flickering financial markets,and post-factual politics. No wonderthat the gentle art of perceiving, asscenario-pioneer Pierre Wack oncefamously described it, has becomean increasingly critical skill when farranging decisions are to be taken.With this book, we would like to drawyour attention to a number of trendsthat, in our current view, might welldrive the future. To do this, we willdescribe a selection of the social, technology-related, environment-related,economic, and political drivers ofchange that we encounter again andagain in our daily work at the Centerfor the Long View.There is one striking insight fromyears of scenario work: the set of drivers that form the general backgroundto the scenarios we draw is surprisingly stable. It changes only slowlyover time, and varies surprisingly littleacross industries, geographies andsectors. However, the ways in whichthese drivers link up and interact with4each other is never the same, and isextremely specific to the focus of thescenario at hand.In other words, drawing up a sensiblelist of factors that can explain the proverbial first 80 percent of our futureis the easy bit of scenario thinking.Selecting the relevant drivers for yourspecific focal question, country orindustry, and combining the overallset into plausible, balanced and challenging stories, on the other hand, isan art.The objective of this book is two-fold.We would like to give you a sense ofstructure when thinking about driversof the future. By clustering driversinto buckets such as societal, technology-related, environment-related,economic, and political (which is oftenreferred to as the STEEP categorization), you are off to a good start.We would also like to open your eyesto the fact that the future is alreadyhere, you just need to perceive it.After absorbing the list of drivers, youmight start to read or watch the newsdifferently. If you start to feel thatmost of the news we are bombardedwith on a daily basis actually tie inneatly with one or several of thetrends described in this book, youhave started to think like a futurist.As you embark on your personaljourney to imagine the future, pleasekeep in mind two more points. First,this book can be read from front toback, but you don’t have to stick toconvention. Feel free to jump fromdriver to driver, go back and forth andexplore the points that capture yourimagination.economy. To illustrate this, we providefive “stories of the future” for eachmegatrend, to give you examples ofhow the megatrend might impact thefuture across STEEP categories.Enjoy the ride.Second, there are two parts to thisbook, and that structure needs a bitof explanation. The first section describes 35 drivers of the future, whichare social or political tendencies,economic or environment-relatedprocesses, or technological developments we often rank as relevant whencompiling our trend analyses. Thesedrivers certainly make an interestingread on their own, but they are stillrather discrete and unrelated observations between themselves.By contrast, the second sectionhighlights megatrends, which is amore abstract concept. Megatrendsemerge at the intersection of two orthree STEEP categories. For example,hyperconnectivity is a phenomenonthat stems from both technology andsociety, and therefore qualifies as amegatrend. Yet, even more importantly, megatrends will have an impact onall aspects of our life in the future. Tostick with our example, that megatrend hyperconnectivity not only determines further future technologiesand trigger new social trends, but alsoleaves its mark in politics, the environmental debate, and of course theFlorian KleinHead of the Center for the Long View5
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s WorldThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s WorldThis century is bestdescribed as theera of uncertainty.Underpinning thefuture of our world are35 drivers of change.
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World ChangeCloudTechnologyCompetitionfor TalentConcentrationof WealthCrowdsourcingDataMonetizationDemand menEnvironmentalAwarenessFocus ustryConsolidationInternet ryLandscapeResourcePrice iaSocialUnrestTechnizationof yTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPolitics9
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversAdditive ManufacturingFramework for understanding AM paths and potential valueImpact AM already affects an enormousnumber of industries includingautomotive, industrial products,medical devices, aerospace anddefense, consumer goods, andarchitecture. AM can improve a product’svalue by increasing the efficiencyand effectiveness of the designprocess. The main benefits arereduced process time and costreduction in the developmentcycle, as well as quality and designimprovement of the final product. From 2013 to 2018, the marketvolume for AM systems and support products/services is expectedto rise from US 3.1 billion to US 12.5 billion. The fastest growing segment withinAM, metals, is expected to reach amarket volume of US 3.9 billion by2025. AM is currently already used in someform in 24% of manufacturing firmsand in up to 50% of supply chainleaders. By 2017, an additional 21% of manufacturing firms plan to use AM. AM’s impact on supply chains includes material waste reduction,increased production flexibility, andthe possibility of further decentralizing production. However, companieshave to overcome quality assurancebarriers to employ AM for purposesbeyond rapid prototyping or tooling. Some experts estimate that consumers might save approximately 80-90%of purchase costs by purchasing theright to manufacture a product athome rather than through traditional retail channels.Sources: Statista 2013, IDTechEx 2015, DeloitteUniversity 2014, Deloitte University 201710No supply chain changeImportancePath III:Product evolutionPath IV:Business model evolution Strategic imperative: Balance ofgrowth, innovation, and performance Value driver: Balance of profit, risk,and time Key enabling AM capabilities:- Customization to customerrequirements- Increased product functionality- Market responsiveness- Zero cost of increased complexity Strategic imperative: Growth andinnovation Value driver: Profit with revenuefocus, and risk Key enabling AM capabilities:- Mass customization- Manufacturing at point of use- Supply chain disintermediation- Customer empowermentPath I:StasisPath II:Supply chain evolution Strategic imperative: Performance Value driver: Profit with a cost focus Key enabling AM capabilities:- Design and rapid prototyping- Production and custom tooling- Supplementary or “insurance”capability- Low rate production/no changeover Strategic imperative: Performance Value driver: Profit with a cost focus,and time Key enabling AM capabilities:- Manufacturing closer to pointof use- Responsiveness and flexibility- Management of demand uncertainty- Reduction in required inventoryHigh supply chain changeHigh product changeAdditive manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing refers to aproduction method whereby three-dimensional productsare created by successively layering material using a computerized or digital process.No product changeSources: Deloitte University 201711
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversArtificial IntelligenceThe Three Vs framework for assessing applications for cognitive technologiesNew technologies are focused on augmenting theprocessing capabilities of machines for human-likeintelligence (e.g., robotics, natural-language processing,speech recognition).ImportanceImpact Due to the increased use of roboticsand artificial intelligence (AI), it is expected that about 50% of US occupations will experience some degreeof automation in the next 10 years(2014–2024). Through suggestions that specificallyrefer to a context, cognitive analyticscan enhance the accuracy of forecasts and the performance of tasksin terms of their efficiency and degreeof automation. Cognitive analytics cansupport and add to human cognitionby providing suggestions that a humanmind may not have taken into consideration. A study conducted by researchersfrom the University of Oxford predicts that almost half of total USemployment (47%) will transformor vanish because of automation. There are three general categoriesinto which applications dealing withartificial intelligence can be divided.These are “product applications”,“process applications” (such asautomation), and “insight applications” (such as machine learning).12 Cognitive analytics are especiallyvaluable for companies that areeager to enhance their capabilitiesto predict, sense, and react since theycombine the analysis of big data withpractical decision-making support.Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte 2014,Deloitte University 2014ScreenCognitive technology indicatorsApplication examplesViable All or part of a task, job, or workflow requires lowor moderate level of skill plus human perceptionLarge data setsExpertise can be expressed as rules Workers’ cognitive abilities or training are underutilizedBusiness process has high labor costsExpertise is scarce; value of improvedperformance is high Writing company earnings reports; e-discovery;driving/pilotingHealth insurance utilization managementMedical diagnosis; aerial surveillanceIndustry-standard performance requires use ofcognitive technologiesA service cannot scale relying on human labor alone Online retail product recommendationsFraud detectionMedia sentiment analytics Valuable Vital Forms processing, first-tier customer service,warehouse operationInvestment advice, medical diagnosis, oilexplorationScheduling maintenance operationsSources: Deloitte 201413
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversAugmented RealityAugmented reality (AR) is a form of technology used toprovide a digitally enhanced view of the real world. Thistechnology layers digital information (e.g., graphics, sound,or feedback) on top of the physical environment for theuser to manipulate.ImportanceImpact In 2017, there will be more than2.5 billion downloads of mobile ARapplications. By 2020, there could beabout 1 billion people using AR. By using AR devices, users canexperience their physical surroundings through computergenerated inputs (e.g., video,sound and GPS data). These sensory inputs augment items fromthe real world in such a way thatpeople think their environment isreal, even though they may findthemselves in a totally differentsurrounding. It is predicted that the annual revenues of mobile AR in the enterprise and general entertainmentapplication sectors will each exceed US 1 billion in 2018. Copenhagen Airport has introduceda pilot project in which an applicationguides users through the airport. By2020, users could be navigated with a3D tool embedded in either a mobileor a wearable AR device. This devicewill map passengers by means of thetriangulation of Wi-Fi access spots atterminals and navigate them throughthe airport.14 During the past 12-18 months,retailers and brands have beenstrongly engaged with advertisingtheir AR applications via mobilechannels to influence consumerbehavior and drive consumeradoption of AR devices. At a time when customer focus isbecoming increasingly important,mobile is considered the leadingtechnology driving omni-channelmarketing.Sources: Deloitte 2016, Deloitte University 2015The evolution of interaction – shortened chains of commandAugmented and virtual reality help accelerate the coalescence of userswith their device-powered experience of the world, improving the fidelityof intention, increasing efficiency, and driving innovation.The evolution of Intermediate devices interact withinterfaces; virtually all input occursthrough a mouse or keyboardPOINTCLICKTYPESMART SCREENSScreens manipulated based onenvironment facilitate direct physicalor spoken interaction with displaysTOUCHSWIPETALKINTUITIVE INTERACTIONDevices respond to ambient cues andintentional movements to createempathetic, personalized experiencesGESTUREMOODGAZESources: Deloitte University 201615
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversAutomationTime spent on tasks machines could handlePhysical objects are becoming more and more frequently interconnected with digital technology (e.g., advanced robotics andsensing) and able to communicate without human intervention.Impact By 2020, the robotics industry couldreach a market volume of US 100billion. Automation reduces errors significantly and supports product improvements. Companies in all sectors haveto decide whether to understand andadopt intelligent automation or takethe risk of falling behind. During 2014–2024, half of the workcarried out by today’s US workerscould be automated to some extent. In that period, the robotics industrymay create 3 million additional jobs,especially in consumer electronicsand the electric vehicle industry. By 2020, the rehabilitation robotmarket may grow 40-fold comparedto 2014 due to advancements inrehab/therapy robots, exoskeletons,wearable robotics, and activeprostheses. Industry example: in the life sciencesand healthcare industry, robots sterilize surgical tools without human intervention, thus incidents of infection arereduced and hospital staff resourcesare freed up. Robotic systems in pharmacies couldhand out drugs with zero errors whilein automated kiosk, patients are ableto enter medical symptoms and receive customized recommendations.20%77kShare of tasks machines could handleImportanceTime spent on tasks machines could handleProduct Demonstrators& Promoters69k15%Market Research Analysts &Marketing Specialists430KMerchandise Displayers& Window TrimmersAdvertising Graphic Designers17KSurvey Researchers5%28KCommercial & IndustrialDesigners0 10 20 30 40 50 60hourly wageSources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte University 2014, Deloitte 2015,Deloitte 201516Sources: Harvard Business Review 201617
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversBlockchain SystemsBlockchain systems use a distributed ledger technology topromote transparency, trust, and decentralized validationamong members of the digital network.ImportanceImpact Venture capitalists are fueling thisdevelopment with the investmentof approximately US 1 billion in 120blockchain-related start-ups – half ofthat investment already took place in2015. Due to their similarity to the Internet,which increased communicationdramatically by reducing cost andfriction to near zero, cryptocurrencies have the potential for a sharpincrease in transactions. With the representation of morethan 50 of the world’s largest banks,the blockchain consortium R3 CEV iscreating a distributed ledger platformto power the financial services industry’s foray into blockchain. Analysts at one investment bankcommented on this trend recently,saying that venture capital flowaccelerated in 2016 and is leadingto further the development of thefoundational and infrastructureservices necessary to create afertile “plug and play” ecosystemfor entrepreneurs and innovation.This may ultimately escalate enterprise adoption from a trickle in 2016to a multi-year boom starting in 2017. Linq, a blockchain-based platformand ledger system that managesthe trading of shares, was rolledout by NASDAQ (MX Group Inc.)in October 2015.Sources: Deloitte University 20161801The new blockis put in thenetwork so thatminers canverify if itstransactionsare legitimate.Verification isaccomplishedby completingcomplexcryptographiccomputations.02When a minersolves thecryptographicproblem, thediscovery isannounced tothe rest of thenetwork.03The algorithmrewards thewinning minerwith 25bitcoins, andthe new block isadded to thefront of theblockchain.Each block joinsthe prior blockso a chain ismade – theblockchain.04Within tenminutes of onePerson initiatingthe transaction,both partieseach receive thefirst confirmation that thebitcoin wassigned over tothe recipient.05All the transactions in theblock are nowfulfilled and therecipient getspaid.Sources: Deloitte 201619
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversThe Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World DriversClimate ChangeImportanceImpact According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, 1.8 billionpeople are exposed to absolutewater scarcity and more than 5.2billion are expected to face waterstress by 2025. 2016 was ranked as the warmestyear since 1884 according to a studypublished by the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies (GISS).Similar findings were also published in studies by the UK ClimaticResearch Unit (CRU) and the USNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA). By 2020, an increase of 13% in foodproduction is needed to meet thedemand of 890 million tons for 7.8billion people. By 2025, water withdrawals willincrease by 50% in developingcountries and by 18% in developed countries. This will fosterlocal competition for water. The need for innovation in food production is increasing, fueled by climate change and natural calamities. Aware consumers push for healthyand organic food, reduced foodfootprints, and sustainability. Thisresults in food waste, recycling, andthe redistribution of unused foodemerging as the main concerns forburgeoning ecosystems.Sources: Gartner 2016, The Guardian 2016,Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte University 201520Global Mean Estimates based on Land and Ocean Data1.00.80.6Temperature Anomaly (C)As climate change continues, natural disasters and abnormalweather patterns will increasingly have effects on our socioeconomics, demographics, crop prod
Beyond the Noise The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World . and trigger new social trends, but also leaves its mark in politics, the envi-ronmental debate, and of course the . - Manufacturing closer to point of use - Responsiveness and flexibility - Management of demand uncer-tainty - Reduction in required inventory
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Noise Figure Overview of Noise Measurement Methods 4 White Paper Noise Measurements The noise contribution from circuit elements is usually defined in terms of noise figure, noise factor or noise temperature. These are terms that quantify the amount of noise that a circuit element adds to a signal.
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