Supporting EV Commercialization With Rebates

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Supporting EV Commercialization with Rebates:Statewide Programs, Vehicle & Consumer Data, and Select FindingsBrett Williams, MPhil (cantab), PhDPrincipal Advisor, Clean Transportation, Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE)brett.williams@energycenter.orgThanks to John Anderson, Colin Santulli, and others at CSE20 April, 2017

Outline Electric vehicle market update Statewide Rebate Programs in CA, MA, CT & NY– Design & Implementation Program Tracking– Rebated Vehicle & Consumer Data Program Evaluation– Select Findings: Impact, Design, Participation, Strategy, etc. Online Resources2

Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Update3

Questions to be exploredElectric vehicle market update What electric cars are now available? How are they selling? Which are right for me?4

What electric cars are now available?5

More Choice: Electric Vehicle (EV) ModelsPlug-in hybrid EVsAll-battery EVsFuel-cell EVs6All models pictured had 100 national sales in Q1 orecard/)

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)Plug-in hybrid EVsDepending on the model Range: 180–640 miles total– 10–97 mi. on electricity plus– 83–615 on gasoline If forget to charge, acts likeefficient gasoline hybrid If charge frequently drivingcan be electric– U.S. avg. commute: 15 mi.– U.S. avg. daily driving: 30 mi. MSRP: 27,100– 140,7007All models pictured had 100 national sales in Q1 2017 ard/)Range specs: FuelEconomy.govDaily driving: AmericanDrivingSurvey2015FS.pdf

All-Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)All-battery EVsDepending on the model Range: 81–315 electric miles 0 to 60 mph: 2.3–10.1seconds Full torque when stoplightturns green No shifting, smoothacceleration to maximumspeed MSRP: 28,995– 137,8008All models pictured had 100 national sales in Q1 2017 ard/)0-60 times: tion-30-mph-60-mph-ev-mode/

Select Recent ReleasesVehicleVehicleCategoryBaseMSRPEPA FuelEconomyEPA RangePrius PrimeMidsizePHEV 27,100133 MPGe25 e-mi640 total miKia OptimaPlug-in HybridMidsizePHEV 35,210103 MPGe29 e-mi610 total mi 36,620119 MPGe238 e-miChevrolet Bolt9Small wagonBEVChryslerPacifica HybridMinivanPHEV 41,99584 MPGe33 e-mi570 total miBMW 330eCompactPHEV 44,10071 MPGe14 e-mi350 total miMercedes-BenzGLE 550eSUVPHEV 66,30043 MPGe10 e-mi460 total mie-mi electric milesSpecs from

How are they selling?10

Cumulative New EV Registrations in U.S.600,000 532,000 registered thru 2016500,000In 2016, EVs were: 1% of new light-duty vehicle sales nationally 2% of new light-duty vehicle sales in ZEVregulation culated from data at les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2011Q1 20110

New U.S. EV Registrations by Vehicle Category (thru Jan 2017)PHEV50%BEV50%FCEVs 0%12Calculated from data at les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)

New U.S. EV Sales by Make(thru Mar agenPorscheOther0%5%PHEV1310%BEV15%20%PHEV and BEV*** Tesla and Fiat-Chrysler do not report EV sales, which are estimated**BMW i3 and i3 REx are groupedCalculated from data at rd/25%

New EV Registrations by State (thru Jan 2017)14From les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)

New EV Registrations by State, Less CA (thru Jan 2017)15From les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)

EV Share of New LDV Market by State (thru Jan 2017)16From les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)

Which EVs are right for me?17

Power Search the Right Vehicle for You Try the power search at: Select Vehicle Types:Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, AllElectric Add your personalpreferences: Market Class(body style), MaximumMSRP Consider the one higheston the efficiency list thatis right for you.18

Example: Top 6 most fuel efficient plug-in hybridsBest conventional gasoline

Select TakeawaysElectric vehicle market update Two fundamentally different products:– Plug-in hybrid EVs No worries about range or access to charging– All-battery EVs No combustion The diversity of choices is increasing– Body type: 22 mid-sized or larger (including a minivan)– Price: 16 models 30,000 after incentives New product class: Chevy Bolt sedan with 238-mile electric range EV consumers are no longer guinea pigs– 600,000 now on the roads– Some models on 2nd or 3rd third generation20

Statewide EV Rebate ProgramsDesign & Implementation21

Questions to be exploredStatewide Rebate Programs Why rebates? How do statewide rebate programs compare? What program components lead to success?22

Center for Sustainable Energy ableEnergy

CSE Electric Vehicle ActivitiesIncentives Design &AdministrationFleet Assistance& Clean Cities24Consumer & DealerOutreachPEV, Alt.-Fuel, & ZEVPlanning &ImplementationStakeholderEngagement2nd Life BatteryResearch & VehicleGrid Integration

Why rebates?25

Progress toward 15% ZEV market share by 2025Monthly ZEV Market Share: All 10 ZEV States26From les-dashboard/(including content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co, 2017)

CT EV Sales & Goal (, thru 2016)Sales:27Goals:

CT EV Sales, Market Share & Goals (, thru 2016)Sales:MarketShare:28

How do state EV rebate programscompare?29

EV Incentive Programs: Rebate AmountsFuel-CellEVs 5,000 2,500All-BatteryEVs 2,500 2,500 10 kWh 2,500 10 kWh 1,500Plug-in HybridEVs 2,500 (i3 REx) 1,500Zero-EmissionMotorcycles 900 750e-miles 20 only;Consumer incomecap and increasedrebatesMSRP 60k 1,000 max.30

EV Incentive Programs: Rebate AmountsFuel-CellEVsAll-BatteryEVs 5,000 2,500 2,500 2,500 10 kWh 2,500 10 kWh 1,500Plug-in HybridEVs 2,500 (i3 REx) 1,500Zero-EmissionMotorcycles 900 750e-miles 20 only;Consumer incomecap and increasedrebatesMSRP 60k 1,000 max.31 3,000 25 kWh 3,000 20 kWh 1,500 0 kWh 750 18 kWh 3,000 10 kWh 1,500 0 kWh 750MSRP 60konly; dealerassignment; 300 dealerincentivee-miles 120 2,000 40 1,700 20 1,100 20 500MSRP 60k 500 max.;point-of-sale

CHEAPR Rebate Design ImplicationsProduct Category Battery size (kWh)PHEVs (incl. BEVx) 1010 to 18 18BEVs 2020 to 25 25FCEVsall32Rebate 750 1,500 3,000 750 1,500 3,000 hevroletHyundaiToyotaHondaModelC350e330e iPerformanceC-MAX EnergiFusion EnergiA3 e-tronPrius PrimeSonata Plug-InOptima Plug-InPacifica Plug-InVolti3 RExi-MiEVelectric drivei3 60 Ah500eSoul EVB250e (B-Class Electric Drive)Ioniq ElectricLEAFi3 94 AhFocus Electrice-GolfBoltTucson Fuel CellMiraiClarityFCEVs not availableElectric Range(EPA 5125238265312366Rebate 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 1,500 3,000 3,000 750 750 1,500 1,500 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 5,000 5,000Battery 624272828303333.535.860N/AN/AN/A

NY Rebate Design ImplicationsProduct Category Range (EPA e-mi)RebateAll 20 or MSRP 60k 500 20 1,100 40 1,700 120 2,00033FCEVs not available and not 550eVolvoXC90 T8BMW330e iPerformanceBMWi8BMWX5 xDrive40ePorscheCayenne S E-HybridBMW740e xDrivePorschePanamera S E-HybridAudiA3 e-tronFordC-MAX EnergiFordFusion EnergiToyotaPrius PrimeHyundaiSonata Plug-InKiaOptima Plug-InChryslerPacifica Plug-InChevroletVoltMitsubishii-MiEVsmartelectric driveBMWi3 60 AhFIAT500eMercedes-Benz B250e (B-Class Electric Drive)KiaSoul EVBMWi3 RExNissanLEAFBMWi3 94 AhFordFocus ElectricHyundaiIoniq ElectricVolkswagene-GolfChevroletBoltTeslaModel STeslaModel XElectric Range(EPA 79397107114115124125238210-315238-289Rebate 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 2,000 2,000 2,000 500 500Battery 0075-100

EV Rebate Program FeaturesCVRP (CA)MOR-EV (MA)CHEAPR (CT)DRIVE 20152017Rebates thruJanuary 2017 399,774,533184,569 vehicles 7,330,7503,486 vehicles 2,630,2501,141 vehiclesLaunchedMarch 2017FundingsourcesVehicleregistration fees,cap-and-traderevenuesRegionalGreenhouseGas Initiative(RGGI)Utility settlementClean EnergyFund (CEF) andRGGIFunding cycleAnnual withfrequentdisruptionsOn demand,subject toavailability 1 million increments;seeking long-term 55 million(multi-year)commitmentMisc.Complex incomeeligibility criteria;Pre-qual. in 2017Soft MSRP capDealer assignmentDealer applies foroption; 300/EV dealer consumer;incentive; hard MSRP cap Soft MSRP capPaymentCheckCheckDealer or consumerACH34Dealer ACH

What program components lead tosuccess?35

EV Incentive Programs: Key Components Create awareness: Coordinated andstrategic outreach & education Facilitate access & participation:Customer-service-orientedapplication processing Provide intelligence: Sophisticatedprogram transparency, includingtracking & evaluation36

Outreach: DealersTarget Audience: EV sales peopleActivities: WebinarsIn-person trainingsCollateral development and distributionPartnerships– OEMs– Dealer associations– Auto groups37

Outreach: New Car ShoppersTarget Audience: Lowest barriers to EV adoptionActivities: Branded event booths and marketingmaterials Digital marketing & social media Cross-program collaboration– Collateral distribution– Cross-promotion38

Outreach: Underserved CommunitiesTarget Audience: Disadvantaged communities (DACs) Non-DAC low-to-moderate incomeconsumersActivities: Collaborate with community-basedorganizations and other agencies Increase access––39Targeted contentMulti-lingual resources

Project Website: Simplicity &

Transparency: Mission Statement to educate and empower internal and externalstakeholders through the design, creation, andcommunication of evidence-based products thatprovide program and market intelligence.41

Transparency: Goals, Activities & RolesPolicyDesignTeam goals: Program improvement ncyExternal stakeholdersImplementationInternal roles: Program Design Program Planning Program Strategy42TrackingTeam activities: Program tracking Program evaluation Program advisementExternal roles Policy and marketsupport andintelligence

Select TakeawaysStatewide Rebate Programs Programs demonstrate considerable variation– can be tailored to regional conditions and needs Lack of consistent, multi-year funding dramaticallyreduces program effectiveness and efficiency Common components that lead to success:– Create awareness: Coordinated and strategic outreach &education– Facilitate participation: Customer-service-orientedapplication processing– Provide intelligence: Sophisticated program transparency,including tracking & evaluation43

Program TrackingRebated Vehicle & Consumer Data44

Questions to be exploredProgram Data What data are these programs producing and makingpublicly available?45

Where can I get the data?: CSE Multi-State Transparency Tools Public, online, interactive dashboards facilitate informed action–––Also: zevfacts.comData characterizing 189,000 EVs and consumers 410M in rebates processed 19,000 survey responses statistically represent 91,000 rg46

Rebate Dashboard 184,000 rebates totaling 399million through January 2017 Filter by:––––time periodconsumer typevehicle typea variety of geographies (e.g., utilityterritory, legislative district)– funding source Notes tab provides moreinformation Updated monthly Download:– Images– raw data for tatistics

Rebate e-map

Rebate Map: Detail Search for place ofinterest View details down to theCensus tract(neighborhood) level Need additionaldetails/filters?– The map, rebate dashboard,and rebate data downloadshare the same ate-map

EV Consumer Survey Dashboard 19,460 survey responsesweighted to represent91,085 program participants– by county, model, andpurchase/lease Purchase/lease dates:9/2012–5/2015 Topics include:– Demographics– Information channels– Purchase motivations andenablers– Dealership experience– Utility rate awareness Filter by: vehicle category,buy/lease, make, region Download shboard

Program Surveys: OngoingRebated EV Consumer Surveys1. CVRP: 35,0002. MOR-EV: 1,0003. CHEAPR: 500Incentivized Dealer Survey4. CHEAPR: 100Rebated Consumer EV Ownership Survey5. CVRP: 2 roundsConsumer Awareness Polling6. CA: 2 rounds51

Select TakeawaysProgram Data and Intelligence Applications and participant surveys are valuablesource of large amounts of program and market data Free, regularly updated, high-resolution data accesspromotes program Transparency and Evaluation andenables a variety external stakeholders to supportmarket transformation in their own ways Learnings accumulating in reports andpresentations 52

Program Evaluation53

Questions exploringProgram Evaluation What is program evaluation?Evaluation Questions: Impact: Do rebates work? What impact are the programshaving? How is the dealer incentive working? Design: What sorts of rebate design features arerecommended? Outreach: How can the program help grow EV markets? Whois participating? What are the most important informationchannels to them? How can the program help expand thefrontiers of the EV market? Who needs rebates the most? Equity: Are the programs equitable? What is the impact of anincome cap? Are the CVRP income criteria working?54

Rebate Impact55

EVs are replacing older, more polluting vehiclesMassachusetts30%Replacement vehicleAdditional vehicle70%First vehicleConnecticutCalifornia23%23%76%56CVRP CV SurveyTotal Responses: 12,264MOR-EV SurveyTotal Responses: 41376%CHEAPR SurveyTotal Responses: 581

EVs, in particular PHEVs, replace vehicles at a high rateEV ReplacedPrevious VehicleMOR-EV survey (Jun ’14 thru Feb ‘16)PHEVsnon-Tesla BEVsCHEAPR survey (May ‘15 thru Jun ‘16)PHEVsnon-Tesla BEVsCVRP CV Survey (Jun ’15 thru Mar ‘16)PHEVsnon-Tesla BEVs5776%64%81%62%83%66%

Rebate importance is rated highlyHow important was the state rebate in making itpossible for you to acquire an EV?58EV Consumer Survey (CVRP vehicles acquired 9/12 - 6/15)

Impact of Incentive: Market AdditionsCaliforniaMassachusetts42%50%50%58%Would not havepurchased/leased anEV without rebateConnecticutWould havepurchased/leased anEV without rebate32%68%59CVRP Consumer Surveys (13-16)Total Responses: 31,649Weighted averageVintage: July 2016MOR-EV SurveyTotal Responses: 413Weights appliedVintage: Jun. 2016CHEAPR SurveyTotal Responses: 581UnweightedVintage: Dec. 2016

Illustrative Rebate Design Recommendations** Optimal design depends on program priorities and market context60

Illustrative Rebate Design etBMWModelGLE550eC350e*S550eXC90 T8330e iPerformancei8X5 xDrive40eCayenne S E-Hybrid740e xDrivePanamera S E-HybridA3 e-tron ultraC-MAX EnergiFusion EnergiOutlander*Prius PrimeIoniq PHEV*Sonata Plug-InOptima Plug-InPacifica Plug-InVolt (2016)i3 REx (2017)Electric Range(EPA ndaModeli-MiEVelectric drivei3 60 AhSpark EVe-Golf500eB250eSoul EVLEAFi3 94 AhFocus ElectricIoniq ElectricModel X 60DModel 3*Model S 60DBoltTucson Fuel CellQ6 e-tron*MiraiClarityElectric Range(EPA 0312366Rebate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000Rebate 0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 0 3,000 0 3,000 3,000 0 3,000 3,000Product CategoryPHEVs (incl. BEVx)Minimum EPAElectric RangeRebate1530 2,000 3,000701000 2,000 3,000 0BEVs & FCEVsMSRP 60k Minimum eligibility threshold is 15electric miles (average commutedistance)Supports market stimulation andacceleration into mainstreamconsumers with a signal for capablePHEVs (30 miles average daily driving)Introduces MSRP cap to increaseprogram effectiveness and equitywithout complexity of income criteria*Forthcoming products; numbers may change

GoalsProgram design goals: Maximize rebate effectiveness Promote of a variety of ZEV products and brands Maximize environmental and energy benefits Maximize market stimulation and acceleration intomainstream consumers Maintain simplicity & consistency Provide return on investment of public dollarsProgram planning goals: Reduce budgetary impactOthers?62

Sample Recommendations: Rebate AmountKeep incentive levels for impactful vehicles as high aspossible for as long as possible avoid prematurely phasing down% of CHEAPR participants thatwould have not purchased/leasedwithout rebateRebatePHEVBEV 75044%*N/A 1,50061% 44%* 3,00076%71%* Sample size small63Calculated for a Sep. 2016 presentation

Sample Recommendations: Rebate Phase Out?Keep incentive levels for impactful vehicles as high aspossible for as long as possible; avoid premature phase-outCommon paradigm:64

Current Reality: Rebate Essentials (CT)% of CHEAPR participants thatwould not have purchased/leased their EVwithout the rebate100%80%60%40%20%0%Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017*65CHEAPR Consumer Survey (unweighted, n 654 respondents)Purchase dates: 5/2015–1/2017

Current Reality: Rebate Essentials (CA)% of CVRP Participants that would not havepurchased/leased their EV without the 13Q12014Q22014EV Consumer Survey, sampling weights applied (n 19,460 respondents)Purchase dates 9/12-5/15Q32014Q42014Q12015

Sample Recommendations: Equity thru Eligibility Vehicle eligibility limits are much easier and lessintrusive to implement than consumer eligibility limits–67Consider making eligibility caps “hard” to reserve funds for moreeffective rebates* Examples from the research literature and other

Apr 20, 2017 · PHEV Chevrolet Volt 53 1,700 18.4 BEV Mitsubishi i-MiEV 59 1,700 16 BEV smart electric drive 68 1,700 17.6 BEV BMW i3 60 Ah 81 1,700 21.6 BEV FIAT 500e 84 1,700 24 BEV Mercedes-Benz B250e (B-Class Electric Drive) 87 1,700 28 BEV Kia Soul EV 93 1,700 27 PHEV BMW i3 REx 97 1,700 33 BEV

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