SOLAR IN THE SOUTHEAST - Clean Energy
SOLAR IN THESOUTHEAST2018 Annual ReportSouthern Alliance for Clean EnergyP.O. Box 1842 Knoxville, TN 37901 865.637.6055
INTRODUCTIONSolar in the Southeast illuminates the critical role ofutilities in the growing southeastern solar market.Southeastern states, particularly Alabama, Florida,Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina,and Tennessee, grant monopoly utilities, rather thana competitive marketplace, the responsibility andcontrol over power supplies. Consequently, thelocation of a home or business is the primarydeterminant not only of which utility will supply theelectricity, but also the amount of solar within thatportfolio.To provide an equitable, unbiased comparison ofvarious-sized utilities throughout the Southeast,SACE has ranked utilities on the basis of watts percustomer (W/C) of solar power sourced to thecustomer. SACE has also calculated and forecasttotal installed capacity of solar power (inmegawatts, MW) particularly for state comparisons.The purpose of this report is to document currentprogress and trends at both utility and state levels,as well as identify policies and practices to drivecontinued solar growth in the Southeast.ABOUT SACEThe Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) is anonprofit organization that promotes responsible energychoices to ensure clean, safe, and healthy communitiesthroughout the Southeast. As a leading voice for energypolicy in our region, SACE is a regional organizationfocused on transforming the way we produce andconsume energy in the Southeast.Proper citation for this report: “Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (2019). Solar in the Southeast, 2018 Annual Report.”Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report2
3TABLE OF CONTENTS1.Executive Summary42.Southeast Solar Capacity Forecast53.Large Utility System Rankings64.Forecast for Select Utility Systems75.Southeast Solar Momentum: “SunRisers”86.2018 Southeast Solar Snapshot97.Forecast for Southeast States118.State Profiles139.Data Sources, Methods & Assumptions2110.Contact Information2211.Appendices23Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU T ILIT IE S- South Carolina Electric & Gas (SCE&G)emerged as a solar power player in 2018,joining Duke Energy Progress, Duke EnergyCarolinas, and Georgia Power at the top of ourleaderboard. Each of these utilities offers morethan 400 watts of solar per customer (W/C).- Fellow Palmetto State utility, Santee Cooper,resides at the bottom of the board for both2018 and our 2022 forecast.- Florida Power & Light (FPL) announced a boldcommitment in 2019 that will propel it to solarleadership for the next decade.ST A T E S- Florida is beginning to live up to its reputationas the Sunshine State, surpassing Georgia oninstalled capacity (MW) in 2018. By 2022, wealso forecast solar capacity in Florida toexceed that of North Carolina.- Even with major announcements fromFacebook and Google, Tennessee andAlabama exhibit less than half the regionalaverage throughout our forecast period (2022).CO NT INUED GR O WT HSolar growth continues in the Southeast (adding 65% in 2018). The region willsurpass 10,000 MW in 2019. SACE now anticipates 19,000 MW by 2022, up fromour prior projection of 15,000 by 2021.CUR R ENT AND F UT UR E LEADER SDuke Energy Progress, SCE&G, Duke Energy Carolinas and Georgia Power arethe current utility leaders ranked by watts per customer (W/C) offering unbiasedidentification of leaders in the southeast solar market. Walton EMC, FPL andOrlando Utilities Commission (OUC) join four returning "SunRisers" demonstratingleading levels of planned solar growth.CO R PO R AT E LEADER SHIP2018 was a banner year for corporate leadership on solar (nationwide 2.8gigawatts, GW according to Rocky Mountain Institute)1 and the Southeast wasno exception. Facebook drove major solar commitments in Georgia (203 MW),Alabama (227 MW) and Tennessee (150 MW). Google announced projects forTennessee and Alabama (150 MW each) and also joined with Target, Walmart,and Johnson & Johnson, to contract with Georgia Power for 177 MW of solar.“SUNBLO CKER S”Santee Cooper, North Carolina Electric Cooperatives, and Seminole ElectricCooperative are sticking with outdated plans for low levels of solar. Despite beinghome to several of the corporate projects above, TVA falls into this category, aswell. We project that solar W/C for these four utilities will remain below today'sregional average W/C through at least 2022.1.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report4PV Magazine, December 18, 2018Corporate solar procurement knocks it out of the park in 2018
SOUTHEAST SOLAR CAPACITY FORECASTDISTRIBUTED SOLARUTILITY-SCALE SOLAR2022631 watts/customerGeneration 3.8% of Retail SalesGR OWTH C ONTINU ES20,000The seven-state Southeast region featured over 8,000 MW ofsolar in 2018 and will comfortably surpass 10,000 MW in 2019.Based on utility and other industry forecasts, SACE hasincreased its forecast to 17,000 MW by 2021 and nearing 20,000MW for 2022. Much of this growth represents existing contractsand commitments that remain highly certain.17,50012,50010,00020187,500269 watts/customerGeneration 1.7% of Retail Sales5,0002,50002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022HISTORICSolar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportF ORECASTSolar PV C apacity , MW( ac)15,000U TIL ITY-SC A L E SOL A R D OM INA TESUtility-scale solar is favored by an economic advantage,policies, and discretionary utility practices that discouragecustomer-sited solar (“behind the meter”). Individual projectsas large as 200 MW are underway in the Southeast.INC R EA SED A C C ESSCertain markets are poised for growth in distributed generationsolar, as well. Legislation pending in South Carolina will extendnet metering. The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC)approved solar lease designs that should promote furthergrowth and opportunity. Florida utilities are also advancingshared/community solar programs that should expand accessfor customers interested in solar.L IM ITED GR ID IM P A C TSEven with over 19,000 MW in 2022, the corresponding solargeneration is less than 4% of retail sales, considerably belowlevels that could trigger changes in grid operation practices.5
LARGE UTILITY SYSTEM RANKINGS2018SYSTEMS WITH 500,000CUSTOMERSWATTS/CUSTOMERDUKE ENERGY PROGRESSS1,625SC ELECTRIC & GAS512DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS508GEORGIA POWER426SOUTHEAST AVERAGE269DUKE ENERGY FLORIDA188FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT167TAMPA ELECTRICOGLETHORPE POWER157152TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY84ALABAMA POWER67NC ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES45SEMINOLE ELECTRIC CO-OP24SANTEE COOPER22Drivers of solar leadership vary. Currently the top three utilities(DEP, SCE&G, DEC) all hail from the Carolinas – NorthCarolina with a renewable energy and energy efficiencyportfolio standard and South Carolina where major solarlegislation is poised to pass for the second time in five years.SCE&G leapt from below the Southeast regional average in2017 to nearly double the regional average in 2018.Georgia Power has continued deployment of its RenewableEnergy Development Initiative (REDI). The Georgia PublicService Commission (PSC) has an opportunity to reinforcethat legacy of leadership with comparable ambition in the2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).A four-year forecast to 2022 showcases three Florida utilitiesmaking great strides. FPL embarks on the boldest 10-yearsolar commitment of any utility in the country; Tampa Electricincreases solar penetration almost six-fold; and the portfolioof Duke Energy Florida (DEF) starts to resemble that of itsCarolina brethren.Some southeastern utilities, however, fail to exhibit significantsolar ambition. Of these largest utility systems (each serving 500,000 customers), the bottom four (Santee Cooper, theNorth Carolina Electric Cooperatives, Seminole Electric, andthe Tennessee Valley Authority, TVA) are each forecast in2022 to remain below the 2018 regional average.6SYSTEMS WITH 500,000CUSTOMERSFORECASTDUKE ENERGY PROGRESSS2,618SC ELECTRIC & GAS1,706TAMPA ELECTRIC934DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS903GEORGIA POWER809FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT734DUKE ENERGY FLORIDA676SOUTHEAST AVERAGE631ALABAMA POWER335OGLETHORPE POWER286TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY251SEMINOLE ELECTRIC CO-OP120NC ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES71SANTEE COOPER422022The 13 largest utility systems in the Southeast each serve more than 500k customers. This includes individual investor owned utilities like Georgia Power, as well as thecombination of utilities organized into cooperatives like Oglethorpe and the federally-owned Tennessee Valley Authority. Also studied, but not exceeding the 500kcustomer benchmark, are several regional municipal power agencies.
7FORECAST FOR SELECT UTILITY SYSTEMS1,300D U KE ENER GY L EA D S THE SOU THEA STDuke Energy has more than half of all the solar in the Southeast. DukeEnergy Progress (DEP) remains atop our leaderboard. Duke’s Carolinasand Florida utilities (DEC and DEF) are both forecast to be above theregional average in 2022.SOU THER N C OM P A NYMississippi Power serves the smallest customer base but exhibits thehighest solar ratio within Southern Company. The Georgia PublicService Commission has an opportunity with Georgia Power’s 2019Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to ensure a legacy of solar leadership.Alabama Power is not yet demonstrating solar ambition comparable tothe rest of Southern Company.F L OR ID A P OWER & L IGHTFPL recently announced the boldest 10-year solar commitment of anyutility in the country. This will more than double the annual pace of solarexpansion for the largest utility in the Southeast (4.9 million customers),FPL will exceed 3,500 MW of solar by 2022 (over 9,000 MW by 2029).OGL ETHOR P E P OWERThe increase in Oglethorpe’s solar ratio over the next two years islargely attributable to the Walton EMC projects for Facebook (3projects, 202.5 MW total).TENNESSEE V A L L EY A U THOR ITYTVA is planning solar exclusively for large corporate customers ratherthan serving its public power obligation. Despite being home toprojects for Facebook and Google, TVA’s forecast is just 251 W/C by2022, well below the Southeast average.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report900700Duke EnergySouthern Company500Southeast AverageFPL (NextEra Energy)Oglethorpe300TVA1002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100These five utility systems serve 74% of retail customers in the Southeast.* Note: Gulf Power remained a unit of the Southern Company through 2018. That ownershiptransfer to NextEra will be reflected in the next update. Blue and green shaded areasillustrate the subtle effect that transaction will have on the forecast for both entities.So lar Watts pe r Custo me r (W/C)1,100
SOUTHEAST SOLAR MOMENTUM: SUNRISERSWALTON EMC1,454TAMPAELECTRICSC ELECTRIC& GASFLORIDA POWER &LIGHT7771,194567ORLANDOUTILITIESCOMMISSION5452018 - 20224 YEAR INCREASEWATTS / ICAUTHORITYSUNRI SERS:Walton EMC burst onto the SunRiser list bycommissioning three major solar projects (202.5MW total with two different developers) to servea new Facebook datacenter in Georgia.The other new entrants on the list include FPL withplans to double its annual pace of solarexpansion ( 750 MW per year for the nextdecade) and Orlando Utilities Commission (OUC)as the anchor tenant in a 223.5 MW project FMPAcommissioned for 12 Florida municipal utilities.Through fulfillment of their ambitious plans,SCE&G, DEP, TECO, and JEA continue to earndistinction as SunRisers.UTILITY2018 W/C2022 W/CWALTON EMC1151,569SC ELECTRIC & GAS5121,706DUKE ENERGY PROGRESS1,6252,618TAMPA ELECTRIC157934FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT167734ORLANDO (OUC)168713JACKSONVILLE (JEA)172679Minimum 100k customersSolar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report8
2018 SOUTHEAST SOLARSNAPSHOT BY UTILITYDUKE ENERGY4,208 MWOTHER UTILITIES866 MWSOUTHERN COMPANY*1,481 MWOGLETHORPE POWER305 MWFLORIDAPOWER & LIGHT797 MWTENNESSEEVALLEY AUTHORITY378 MW* Note: Gulf Power remained a unit of the SouthernCompany through 2018. That ownership transfer toNextEra will be reflected in the next update.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportSOUTHEAST8 , 0 3 5 MW9
2018 SOUTHEAST SOLARSNAPSHOT BY STATE10ALABAMA153 MWNORTH CAROLINA3,266 MWMISSISSIPPIFLORIDA187 MW1,622 MWGEORGIA1,419 MWSolar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportTENNESSEE272 MWSOUTHEAST8 , 0 3 5 MWSOUTH CAROLINA1,116 MW
In sta lled a n d Projected Ca p a city, MW(a c)FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST STATES7,000DISTRIBUTED SOLARUTILITY-SCALE SOLAR6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000NORTH CAROLINAFLORIDAGEORGIASOUTH CAROLINAExcludes PJM territoryNorth Carolina remains the southeast leader in solar capacityand among the highest in the country (currently number 2).1Florida utilities surpassed Georgia in installed capacity (MW)during 2018 and will outshine North Carolina within this forecastperiod (by 2022). The Georgia PSC has an opportunity to ensure alegacy of leadership by insisting on expansion of both utility-scaleand distributed solar in Georgia Power’s 2019 IRP.1.Solar Energy Industries Association. (2019, March 21). Solar Spotlight: North Carolina.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportALABAMATENNESSEEMISSISSIPPIExcludes MISO territoryA comprehensive solar bill is currently pending in the South CarolinaSenate (after passing unanimously in the House). Among otherprovisions, the Energy Freedom Act will extend net metering in thePalmetto State. Our forecast includes additional expansion ofdistributed solar in Florida, as well, with approval last year of solarleasing programs from major parties.Recent solar development in Alabama and Tennessee has beenlimited primarily to corporate purchases, rather than as an integratedresource serving all customers.11
NORTH SOUTH CAROLINALEGISLATURES LEAD THE WAYNorth Carolina’s solar markets continue to thrive because of the2017 Competitive Energy Solutions for North Carolina law (HB 589).That state will reach 6,000 MW by 2022.1,2002022 SOLAR GENERATIONNC 7.2% of retail salesSC 5.2% of retail sales800Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi remain considerably off pacefrom the other states.2017 W/C2018 W/CNorth Carolina2022 W/CNORTH CAROLINA3796431,059SOUTH 1240ALABAMA3159257600South CarolinaSoutheast ssee201120122013201420152016* This analysis excludes the portion of Kentucky served by TVA. Similarly, the PJM portion of North Carolina is excluded as is the MISO portion of Mississippi.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report1,000201720182019202020212022-So lar Watts pe r Custo me r (W/C)South Carolina’s Energy Freedom Act, presently pending in thestate Senate, is designed to sustain all segments of that vibrantsolar market.Florida is starting to live up to its moniker as the Sunshine State andwill surpass Georgia on watts per customer solar ratio by 2021.However, that will only only reflect parity with the region average.STATE12
STATE PROFILESALABAMAFLORIDAGEORGIAMISSISSIPPINORTH CAROLINASOUTH CAROLINATENNESSEESolar in the Southeast2018 Annual Report13
A L A B A M AL A R G EP R O J E C T SA N T I C I P A T E DUTILITY -SCALE SOLAR, MWUTILITY2018I N14N E X T2022UTILITY97502SOUTHEAST AVERAGETVA3813500DI S T R I B U T E D S O L A R , M WUTILITY2018202248TVA1426POWERSOUTH0.51.0ALABAMA POWERAlabama remains the southeastern state exhibiting thelowest solar watts per customer (W/C) ratio. 59 W/C is lessthan one-fourth of the regional average from 2018.Facebook and Google announced significant solarprojects with TVA (677 MW total) and 377 MW of thoseprojects will be located within Alabama. Due to thenature of the TVA system, the majority of its solar powerwill actually serve load in Tennessee rather thanAlabama.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportY E A R SS O L A R W A T T S P ER C U S T O M ERALABAMA POWERPOWERSOUTHF O U R20182022269631ALABAMA POWER67335TVA83263STATE AVERAGE59257POWERSOUTH1.42.7The anticipated expansion of solar for AlabamaPower through 2022 reflects authorization receivedfrom the Alabama Public Service Commission(APSC) in 2015 to develop or procure up to 500 MWof renewable energy. SACE has maintained thisprojection and expects to see it validated in thenext resource plan.PowerSouth has not, to SACE’s knowledge,engaged in any substantial solar development. Thesolar capacity attributed to PowerSouth is an artifactof allocating solar projects geographically when theutility buyer is unknown, along with small pockets ofdistributed generation solar.
F L O R I D AB E C O M I N GUTILITYT H EUTILITY - SCALESOLAR, MWD ISTRIBUTEDSOLAR, MW20182018202215S U N S H I N ES T A T ES O L A R W A T T S P ER C U S T O M ER2022UTILITY20182022FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT6993,25498308TAMPA ELECTRIC157934DUKE ENERGY FLORIDA2611,03691294FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT167734TAMPA ELECTRIC956232199ORLANDO (OUC)168713JACKSONVILLE (JEA)652721033JACKSONVILLE (JEA)172679ORLANDO (OUC)271361240DUKE ENERGY FLORIDA188676GULF POWER120120927SOUTHEAST AVERAGE269631TALLAHASSEE2060310STATE AND1817311GULF POWER291329GAINESVILLE (GRU)6142327GAINESVILLE E24120POWERSOUTH2164Florida utilities are on a path to grow from 1,622 MW to over 6,000 MW ofsolar by 2022. FPL recently announced a program that will double theannual pace of its solar expansion. SACE projects FPL to have 3,500 MW by2022, with a watts per customer (W/C) solar ratio considerably above theregional average and a 4-year increase that earns it SunRiser status.Florida is home to four designated SunRisers including Tampa Electricprojecting the highest W/C ratio for the state in 2022.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportThe pace of Distributed Solar will increase in part due to PublicService Commission approval of solar leasing designs from keycompanies: SunRun, Vivint and Tesla. Shared/community solaroptions are also likely to expand access to solar pending PSCapproval of petitions by Tampa Electric and FPL.
G E O R G I AOPPORTUNITYTOSUSTAIN LEADERSHIPUTILITY -SCALE SOLAR, G00DI S T R I B U T E D S O L A R , M W201820221401511521TVA68MEAG46GEORGIA POWEROGLETHORPEGeorgia’s 2018 watts per customer (W/C) solar ratio ishigher than the Southeast average – but will requireadditional ambition to avoid falling below average by2022.The Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) has anopportunity to demand additional solar development inthe Georgia Power 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)and sustain Georgia’s solar leadership.Solar in the Southeast2018 Annual ReportTRAJECTORYS O L A R W A T T S P ER C U S T O M ERGEORGIA POWERUTILITY16UTILITY20182022GEORGIA POWER426809SOUTHEAST AVERAGE269631STATE ia Power’s proposed 2019 IRP anticipates less solarthan approved in its 2016 IRP. Moreover, the plan isdesigned to offer that solar exclusively to corporatecustomers rather than as a truly integrated part of itsportfolio to serve customers.Oglethorpe’s increase is largely attributable to theWalton EMC projects for Facebook (3 projects, morethan 200 MW total) to serve a new Facebookdatacenter in Georgia. That project earned Walton EMCthe top rank on our SunRiser list – representing the highestincrease in W/C solar ratio over the next four years.
M I S S I S S I P P IF O R E C A S TB E H I N DT H EUTILITY -SCALE SOLAR, MWUTILITYMISSISSIPPI ississippi Power exhibits one of the highest watts percustomer solar ratios of any utility in the southeast(826 W/C in 2018). A relatively small customer base(approximately 190,000 retail customers) denominates thatratio.SACE is not aware of plans to expand utility-scale solardevelopment within Mississippi Power’s territory. Our forecastdoes include considerable expansion of distributed solar forthis Southern Company operating unit.An Inte
tampa electric 157 oglethorpe power 152 tennessee valley authority 84 alabama power 67 nc electric cooperatives 45 seminole electric co-op 24 santee cooper 22 systems with 500,000 customers 2022 forecast duke energy progresss 2,618 sc electric & gas 1,706 tampa electric 934 duke energy carolina
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