GETTING TO 72 BILLION - BIA Advisory Services

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GETTING TO 72 BILLION:BIA/Kelsey’s Mobile Ad Revenue ForecastA BIA/Kelsey Industry Watch ReportFree download, courtesy of Marchex Copyright 2017. All Rights Reserved. BIA/Kelsey

CONTENTSExecutive Summary. 1Mobile: The View From Space . 3Location, Location, Location . 4Why Local? . 5Local Offline . 6Audience Targeting . 7The ‘10% Problem’ . 8National-to-Local. 9Formats . 10Search. 11Traditional Display. 13Traditional Video. 14Native-Social . 16Messaging . 18Orbiting Factors . 20Google: At a Crossroads . 20Call Commerce . 22Ad Blocking: A Blessing in Disguise . 23Conclusion: Follow the Eyeballs and Footsteps . 24About the Author. 25About BIA/Kelsey . 25About Industry Watch Reports . 26Disclosure . - 26 About Marchex . - 26 Appendix I: Definitions . 27Copyright BIA/Kelsey 2017i

What Is ‘Local’? . 27Are Tablets ‘Mobile’?. 27Appendix II: Methodology . 28Methodology Explained (Video). 28Appendix III: Additional Multimedia . 29Mobile Ad Forecast Breakdown . 29The Future of Search . 29BIA/Kelsey Podcast: Google Enters the Home . 29FIGURESFigure 1 - Location-Targeted Mobile Ad Spend. 2Figure 2 - U.S. Smartphone Penetration . 3Figure 3 - Location-Targeted vs. Non-location-Targeted . 4Figure 4 - Location-Targeted Ad Spend By Advertiser Type . 9Figure 5 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend by Format . 10Figure 6 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Search . 12Figure 7 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Traditional Display . 13Figure 8 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Traditional Video . 15Figure 9 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Native Social . 17Figure 9 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Messaging . 19Copyright BIA/Kelsey 2017ii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTwice per year BIA/Kelsey devises a forecastmobile’s overall U.S. ad spend (local andthat projects ad spending for location-non-local), it’s estimated at 33 billion intargeted advertising. The five-year outlook2016, growing to 72 billion by 2020, a 17comprises media such as television, radio,percent compound annual growth rate.Yellow Pages, online/interactive and mobileZeroing in on the location-targeted portion— all covered in an extensive slide-baseddeliverable.of that overall mobile ad spend, it will growFor the first time in report form, we’re now2021, a 21 percent CAGR. That translates todrilling down on one of those areas: mobile.38 percent of overall mobile ad revenuesIn addition to inclusion in the cross-mediatoday, growing to 45 percent by 2020.from 12 billion in 2016 to 32 billion inforecast, its growth and complexity compelDrivers include mobile users’ commercialstandalone treatment. This reportintent and advertisers’ evolution to alignaccomplishes that through data andwith that behavior. There are alsonarrative on mobile advertising’s manylayers.premiums associated with location-targetedThe findings: Mobile is the fastest growinggrowing demand. And Madison Avenue isamong all location-targeted media thatlatching on to these realities.ads — a function of their performance andBIA/Kelsey tracks. When panning back toCopyright BIA/Kelsey 20171

In addition to segmenting mobile ad spendTwitter, Instagram). Their growth followsby its locality, BIA/Kelsey breaks it down bymillennial usage behavior and advertiserformat. There we see notable trending indemand for content marketing.revenue share between search, display,These and other findings emerged throughmessaging, video and native-social. SearchBIA/Kelsey’s all-year process of collecting,has long ruled but is slowly losing share toanalyzing and synthesizing forecast inputs.emerging formats.The result is a data set that carries an eight-Native-social ads are a notable componentyear legacy of time-tested accuracy andof this year’s forecast. They’re defined as in-commentary on where things are movingfeed socially targeted advertising innext.vertically scrolling interfaces (e.g., Facebook,Figure 1 - Location-Targeted Mobile Ad SpendFive-Year Forecast 35US Billions 28.9CAGR 21.1% 30 25 32.4 24.8 20.7 20 12.4 15 16.0 10 5 0201620172018201920202021Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20172

MOBILE: THE VIEW FROM SPACEBefore this report splinters into manymobile culture that spends a growing sharedirections that represent all sides of mobileof time looking down at the glow of mobileadvertising, what does the whole pie lookgames, messaging and social media.like? In the U.S. mobile advertising revenuesGoogle likewise reports that more than halftotal 33 billion in 2016, growing to 72of search queries now happen on mobilebillion by 2020, a 17 percent compoundannual growth rate.devices. This is notable as search is usually aThere are several factors driving thisintent. And Kleiner Perkins reports thatgrowth, but it mostly starts with usage.mobile now makes up 25 percent of users’Smartphones represent 79 percent oftime with media.good indicator of consumer behavior andmobile phones in the U.S. This has bred aFigure 2 - U.S. Smartphone PenetrationFive-year 20210Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20173

Location, Location, LocationWithin U.S. mobile ad revenues, BIA/Kelseycontent to trigger local offline conversions.segments location-targeted ad spending asMore details are in the appendix.a centerpiece of its forecast. Today thatIt’s also important to note that location-segment represents 12 billion, growing totargeted ads include advertisers of all sizes. 32 billion by 2021. That translates to 38Often terms like local imply in-market smallpercent of mobile ad revenues today,businesses. BIA/Kelsey’s forecast converselygrowing to 45 percent by 2021.includes large and small businesses: TheA few important questions arise from thesedefining factor is localization of thefigures, most of all, what do we mean bycampaign, not of the advertiser.location-targeted ads? They’re defined asBeyond the what, another importantads that are targeted based on a user’squestion that arises from these figures is thelocation or include proximity-relevantwhy.Figure 3 - Location-Targeted vs. Non-location-TargetedSmartphones versus non-smartphonesNon-location TargetedLocation TargetedUS Billions 80 60 40 20 038% 32.6 12.4 40.2 16.0 48.7 57.3 24.8 65.2 28.9 72.1 32.445% 20.7 20.2 24.2 28.0 32.4 36.3 39.6201620172018201920202021Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20174

Why Local?One of the biggest mobile success factorsads that drive localized conversions. TheseBIA/Kelsey observes is native thinking:can include call or map buttons.building content, apps and ads that fit theThat higher performance createsdevice’s unique form factor, rather thanpremiums for location-relevant ads.porting formats from legacy media.Premium ad rates in turn boost the valueNowhere does this principle apply morethan location targeting.(and cost) of location-targeted ads and thusThe smartphone’s location-tracking abilitiesreinforced over time through a feedbackand portability, combined with users’loop of advertisers’ return on investment.advertiser spend levels. That spending istransitory behavior, make location-targetedROI reporting meanwhile continues tocontent a natural fit. Google in fact reportsreceive attention in the mobile ad world.that 30 percent of searches have explicitIt’s a direct function of ad attribution,local intent, while 76 percent of thoseresult in a store visit within a day.measured through things like clicks, callsThis local intent drives mobile adconnecting the dots between mobile andperformance when campaigns effectivelyoffline conversions — the essence of local.and store visits. And here the magic is incater to it. For example, successful mobilesearch ads often utilize local extensions —imbedded call-to-action buttons in searchCopyright BIA/Kelsey 20175

Local OfflineDespite ample coverage in mainstream andThis happens through localized adtech press, e-commerce only totals sevencomponents offered by innovators like xAdpercent of U.S. retail spending. The rest —and networks such as Google andabout 3.7 trillion per year — happensFacebook. It includes call-to-action buttonsoffline in physical stores. If you add localthat let consumers book, reserve, buy, mapservices, total offline consumer spending isor call2, right from within an ad unit. And itabout 7 trillion per year.1involves tracking resulting conversions.This isn’t meant to diminish the impact ofFor example, Google enhanced its mobileonline and mobile consumer engagement.ad choices this year with a set of featuresAlthough all these transactions arefor advertisers to more effectively measureconsummated in bricks-and-mortar venues,offline conversions. Its Promoted Pinsthey are increasingly influenced throughmeanwhile offer a form of searchdigital means, such as search or localadvertising that graphically places localdiscovery apps like YP and Yelp.brands within the Google Maps app.The path to purchase — where attention,Facebook has also grown quickly as a localpresence and marketing strategies shouldadvertising channel, using action buttonsfocus — resides in this progression fromthat let advertisers plant transactionalonline engagement to offline conversioncapability in front of users. This includes(O2O). BIA/Kelsey pegs O2O spending atbuttons that enable users to easily call,roughly 4 trillion, while the mobilenavigate, book or buy from nearbysegment of that spend is just over 2businesses (explored further below).trillion.BIA/Kelsey believes these offerings fromThat 2 trillion isn’t ad spend but rather theGoogle, Facebook and others will drivevalue of consumer transactions that arelocalized ad spend. Immediate and tangibleinfluenced through mobile. Given thatconversions will combine with well-figure’s size relative to the 300 billion in e-performing ads to reinforce Madisoncommerce spending, advertisers have moreAvenue’s mobile local ad spending andto gain by optimizing ad campaigns to driveadoption.offline conversions.12See BIA/Kelsey’s breakdown of U.S. consumerspending here.Copyright BIA/Kelsey 2017See BIA/Kelsey report: Call Commerce: A 1 TrillionEconomic Engine6

Audience TargetingWhen examining the different flavors ofplaces I visited. That data can then bemobile ad targeting driving the sector’striangulated to predict where I might gogrowth, an emerging tactic involves what isnext and thus what ads or messaging Iknown as audience targeting. This is the artmight be most receptive to.of using location data to build consumerA recent ThinkNear and IPG Media Labprofiles, which are then used as ongoing adreport showed audience targeting boostedtargeting triggers.local foot traffic by 29 percent over non-This shifts the rhetoric and traditionalaudience targeted benchmarks. The costthinking around location. Rather than use aper incremental store visit was also cheapermobile location signal to deliver aat 1.06, compared with 6.39 for non-geographically relevant ad (e.g., nearbyaudience targeted ads.restaurant), location is beginning to be seenAudience targeting’s benefits also includeas a longer-term tool to measure and createreceptiveness among brand advertisers.a multidimensional mosaic of consumerAudience targeting speaks their language:intent.They’ve done demographic targeting forMore specifically, audience targetingyears. Mobile location-based audienceprofiles users based on patterns of wheretargeting is just a more evolved form of thatthey go (think: soccer mom, businesslongstanding practice.traveler, student, etc.). The data are thenSeveral technology companies developused for predictive modeling for futureversions of audience targeting, includingbehavior, and thus what contextual adFoursquare, xAd, Placed and PlaceIQ. It nottargeting and messaging will resonate most.only creates a more multidimensional set oftargeting parameters, but it can alleviateIn other words, rather than send me an adlocation targeting’s biggest challenge:based on where I’m standing now, locationaccuracy.tracking can be used to see the last 50Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20177

The ‘10% Problem’Location tracking is challenged by anBIA/Kelsey has meanwhile estimated thataccuracy problem. Users’ GPS data aren’tless than 10 percent of location readingsalways accessible, unless they’ve opted in toare accurate down to the meter levelshare it at the app level. So when that(involving GPS). This gets back to audiencelocation precision isn’t available, some adtargeting: Its benefit involves havingnetworks will revert to more blunt tacticsadditional relevance triggers for thesuch as reverse IP lookup.majority of time when location data areunreliable.This has created an industry outcry formore responsible ad targeting practices.Put another way: If you only have 10Among the most vocal in this reformistpercent of the time to accurately trackactivity are xAd, Foursquare and ThinkNear.location, utilize that limited time to developResponsible practices they espouse includelocation-driven audience profiles. Then youvetting location signals more carefully andcan use that profiling data during the otherdiscarding unreliable readings.90 percent of the time, regardless of wheresomeone is.Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20178

National-to-LocalAs mentioned, localized mobile ad spendingIn fact SMBs’ share of the localized mobileincludes national brand advertisers as wellad spend will grow to match its share of theas in-market small businesses. The formeroverall local media ad pie. Specifically, SMBcurrently account for the majority ofspending now accounts for about 36localized mobile ad spending. This is due topercent of local advertising. But in mobile —the segment’s tendency to adopt newerdue to its younger status — SMB spendingtechnologies faster than SMBs.is only 10 percent.However, BIA/Kelsey believes SMBs’ shareOver the next five years, as mobileof mobile local ad spending will grow in theadvertising itself matures, SMBs’ mobilecoming years. This will happen throughlocal ad spending share will approach thatcontinued innovation around self-serve36 percent to match its overall local adofferings like Facebook, as well as directspending share. But in the meantime, theselling and bundling from local mediamajority of localized mobile ad spending iscompanies like YP.still coming from national brands.Figure 4 - Location-Targeted Ad Spend By Advertiser TypeNational brand advertisers versus in-market SMBsSMBBrand U.S. Billions 40 30 20 10 0 11.19 13.46 16.32 18.38 20.24 21.74 1.25 2.56 4.34 6.45 8.68 10.70201620172018201920202021Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 20179

FORMATSFigure 5 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spendby FormatThere are several breakdowns inBIA/Kelsey’s mobile advertising forecast.So far, we’ve covered the overall mobileTraditional DisplayMessagingNative/Socialad pie, and also how that breaks downbetween localized and non-localized adrevenues. But another importantsegmentation is to break down adrevenue by format.There we see mobile ad formats likesearch, display, video, messaging andnative-social advertising – each definedin the coming sections. Because theyare bought and sold in various ways,different formulas and models apply toSearchTraditional VideoUS Millions 80,000 72,071 70,000 65,193 57,260 60,000 48,677 50,000 40,000the composition and financial modelingof each. 30,000In short, search advertising currently holds 20,000 40,175 32,642the largest share, followed by display andnative social ads. Search will continue to 10,000eclipse all ad formats and hold the largest 0share, but native-social is growing the2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021fastest. The following sections examine theNote: Numbers are rounded.dynamics and outlook for each.3Source: BIA/Kelsey, 20173BIA/Kelsey’s breakdown of mobile ad formatshappens within overall mobile ad spending, as well aswithin the localized portion. This section examines theformer, though the latter is available upon request.Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201710

SearchSearch advertising is the leading mobile adAs explored in some of the Google dataformat. It derived 14 billion in 2016,cited earlier, mobile search usage carries agrowing to 23 billion in 2021. Thathigh degree of “lean forward” commercialtranslates to 44 percent of the total ad pieintent. This has made it an attractive venuecurrently, shifting to 32 percent in 2021. Theto incorporate advertising, which in turnshare reduction results from the growth ofshows strong performance metrics likenative-social advertising, explored below.clicks, calls and transactions.Search has held the crown for market shareFor example, mobile search click throughamong mobile ad formats throughout therates (CTR) are 3 percent on average,smartphone age. And it continues to indicatecompared with mobile display ad CTRs thata strong position in the foreseeable future,average 0.4 percent. These performancethough some factors threaten it. Much of itsmetrics keep improving as Google offersstrength comes from high-intent usage.advertising tools to capture user intent,such as Product Listing Ads.Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201711

Google’s data meanwhile continue to boostThese influences join mobile search volume,ad utility such as nearby product inventory.ad coverage and other factors to deriveAnd voice search is on the rise, opening upsearch ad revenues. Though most mobilead inventory with it. This will progress assearch happens on Google, it’s important toGoogle improves speech to text processingnote that this forecast includes in-appand releases products like Google Assistant,search such as Yelp and YP, as well as pay-Home and Allo.per-call advertising (explored below).Figure 6 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: SearchTraditional DisplaySearchMessagingTraditional VideoNative/Social 80,000 72,071 70,000 65,193 57,260US Millions 60,000 48,677 50,000 40,000 40,175 32,642 30,000 10,165 20,000 2,816 350 10,000 0 14,212 16,848 13,370 3,876 630 15,798 19,913 4,895 1,103 17,625 5,758 1,874 19,542 24,163 21,975 6,576 2,999 7,168 4,498 21,306 23,358 5,099 6,501 8,206 10,173 12,338 12,885201620172018201920202021Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201712

Traditional DisplayTraditional display advertising is the thirdresults from habit, as many participants oflargest mobile ad format. It’s currently 5.1the digital ad ecosystem have gottenbillion, growing to 12.9 billion by 2021.comfortable with it. But it’s mostly left overThat translates to 16 percent of the total adfrom the desktop era of online ads.pie in 2016 shifting to 18 percent in 2021.As with search, many factors threatenFlat share growth is due to many factors,traditional display. These include the rise ofincluding the format’s maturity.a better-performing native-social ad formatTraditional display is defined mostly by(explored below), ad blockers (also exploredbanner ads that appear in mobile apps andbelow) and millennial distrust of traditionalweb. The format’s spending primarilyforms of advertising.Figure 7 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Traditional DisplayTraditional DisplaySearchMessagingTraditional VideoNative/Social 80,000 72,071 65,193 70,000 57,260US Millions 60,000 48,677 50,000 40,000 30,000 40,175 32,642 13,370 16,848 4,895 1,103 20,000 10,165 2,816 350 10,000 14,212 15,798 0 5,099 6,501 8,206201620172018 3,876 630 19,913 17,625 5,758 1,874 21,975 6,576 2,999 24,163 7,168 4,498 21,306 23,358 10,173 12,338 12,885201920202021 19,542Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201713

Traditional VideoVideo ads possess many of the sameMobile traditional video ads currentlydynamics and drivers as display ads. In factgenerate 2.8 billion, which we project tomany digital ad market forecasts lump themgrow to 7.2 billion by 2021. That translatestogether. BIA/Kelsey separates video andto 8.6 percent of mobile advertising in 2016further delineates traditional video asshifting to 5.7 percent. Most of theseseparate from video that appears in native-revenues go to YouTube, as it has taken asocial formats (explored below).leading position in mobile videoconsumption.Traditional video includes in-stream pre-rollads on video apps and sites like YouTube. ItBIA/Kelsey estimates YouTube’s video addoes not include natively produced andrevenues at almost 13 billion. About halfplaced in-feed video in social media, such asthat is mobile and 30 percent is U.S., makingFacebook and Snapchat. Videos in the lattermobile U.S. revenues about 2 billion. Withcategory are measured separately undera 75 percent market share, that supportsnative-social.BIA/Kelsey’s 2.8 billion projection fortraditional video advertising.Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201714

But the question often arises: Why doesn’tAnd as with display and search, thisvideo have a larger share? Reasons includecategory’s growth will be mitigated by shiftsviewing time on small screens, as well as theto native-social advertising. The latter ismedium’s propensity toward short-formbecoming popular for video consumption,content, which limits ad inventory. Pre-rollsuch as Snapchat Stories. The bottom line isads are also seen as obtrusive within suchthat video will grow in mobile but mostlyshort mobile video clips.outside the traditional (pre-roll) format.Figure 8 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Traditional VideoTraditional DisplaySearchMessagingTraditional VideoNative/Social 80,000 72,071 65,193US Millions 70,000 57,260 60,000 48,677 50,000 40,000 40,175 32,642 13,370 20,000 10,165 2,816 350 3,876 630 10,000 14,212 30,000 0 15,798 19,913 16,848 4,895 1,103 17,625 5,758 1,874 19,542 24,163 21,975 6,576 2,999 7,168 4,498 21,306 23,358 5,099 6,501 8,206 10,173 12,338 12,885201620172018201920202021Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201715

Native-SocialNative-social advertising has beenwithin the few apps built on thatreferenced throughout this report, so whatframework. These include Facebook,is it exactly? It is defined as graphical,Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn and a fewmultimedia and textual content that isothers.merged into the organic feed-basedNow that we’ve covered the what, theinterfaces of mobile social apps. The mostquestion is, how much? Native-social is theprevalent example is Facebook News Feedfastest growing mobile ad format, derivingAds. 10.2 billion in 2016 and growing to 24.2In addition to their format and orientation,billion in 2021. That translates to 31 percentnative-social ads are defined by how they’reof the total ad pie currently, shifting to 34targeted. They’re placed based on targetingpercent in 2021.parameters such as granular signals withinThis growth stems from the format’sthe social graph. That includes pastadvantages, high performance and resultingbehavior (e.g., Facebook likes) and socialdemand. These advantages come from aconnections to people and groups.principle introduced earlier (and baked rightIn that sense, native-social should not beinto the format’s name): native. The formatconfused with traditional display ads thataligns with mobile device realities and thehappen to be placed near social content.way content is consumed today.For example, a banner ad that is seen withinFor example, sub-six-inch screens favor in-a dating app, event calendar app orfeed units over banners. In other words,anything else construed to be “social” ismobile screens lack screen real estate forcounted under “traditional display.”traditional top and side banner ads thatNative-social ads are conversely defined byruled the desktop web. A vertically scrollingtheir format. And native is the operativefeed (a la news feed) conversely holdsword. They merge with the vertical feed ofgreater capacity for ad inventory.time-based and social-oriented contentCopyright BIA/Kelsey 201716

Beyond quantity, there’s quality: Native-million SMB pages, 4 million of which paysocial ads resonate with millennials, whofor news feed ads — more paying SMBsare famously averse to traditionalthan any other platform.advertising and didactic ad messaging.This is driven by the ease of campaignNative-social’s subtlety appeals to themanagement and growing suite of actiongeneration, whose buying empowermentmakes its tastes a critical factor.buttons on Facebook pages and ads (e.g.,On the buy side, native-social advertisingincluding increasingly popular and well-has likewise resonated. This is seen in theperforming auto-start/stop video inbrand world’s Snapchat obsession andFacebook and Instagram vertical feeds.buy, book, call). Multimedia is also a draw,SMBs’ Facebook adoption. Facebook has 50Figure 9 - U.S. Mobile Ad Spend: Native SocialTraditional DisplayTraditional VideoSearchNative/SocialMessaging 80,000 65,193US Millions 70,000 57,260 60,000 48,677 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 40,175 32,642 13,370 16,848 4,895 1,103 10,165 2,816 350 14,212 15,798 17,625 5,099 6,501 8,206201620172018 3,876 630 19,913 5,758 1,874 21,975 6,576 2,999 72,071 24,163 7,168 4,498 21,306 23,358 10,173 12,338 12,885201920202021 19,542Note: Numbers are rounded.Source: BIA/Kelsey, 2017Copyright BIA/Kelsey 201717

MessagingAnother notable trend in this round ofThis brings us to the emerging area

One of the biggest mobile success factors BIA/Kelsey observes is native thinking: building content, apps and ads that fit the device’s unique form factor, rather than porting formats from legacy media. Nowhere does this principle apply more than locatio

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