Drivers Of Change For The Real Estate Industry

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www.pwc.co.zaDrivers ofchange for theReal EstateIndustry

Executive SummaryJust six years from now, the real estate industry is likely to lookvery different from the way it does today, as nearly 100 delegatesgathered in Sandton for PwC’s first South African Real EstateConference held recently.Rapid urbanisation and demographic changes, especiallywithin emerging markets, will lead to substantial growth inthe real estate industry. At the same time as the industry’sopportunities grow, so too will assets invested in the sector.estate economics, but by 2020, it will have reshaped entiresectors. And the real estate community will have taken agreater role in the financial ecosystem, in part moving intothe space left by the banks.”“As confidence returns to real estate, the industry faces anumber of fundamental shifts that will shape its future,”says PwC Global Real Estate Leader, Kees Hage.A study by PwC, titled Real Estate 2020: Building theFuture, focuses on the likely changes in the real estateindustry over the coming years and identifies the keytrends, which are expected to have profound implicationsfor real estate investment and development.The worldwide growth in the real estate industry overthe years to 2020 will largely be driven by developmentsresulting from far-reaching economic and social changes.By 2020, real estate managers will have a broader rangeof opportunities, with greater risks and new value drivers.As real estate is a business with long development cycles –from planning to construction takes several years – now isthe time to plan for these changes.“High energy prices, climate change and governmentregulation are already pushing sustainability up the realestate agenda, but by 2020 their impact is expected to be fargreater,” says Hage. “Technology is already disrupting realThe study predicts that the global stock of investable realestate will expand by more than 55%, from US 29.0 trillionin 2012 to US 45.3 trillion in 2020. It may then growfurther to US 69.0 trillion in 2030. This huge expansion ininvestable real estate will be the greatest in the emergingeconomies, where economic development is expected tolead to better tenant quality and, in some countries, clearerproperty rights. And it will play out across the housing,commercial, real estate and infrastructure sectors.Hage says: “In order to prepare for these implications,real estate investment organisations will need to makesure they have the right capabilities and qualities.”2

Global megatrends will change the realestate world as we know it todayPwC Asset Management and Real Estate Leader for Africa,Ilse French, says: “The study goes on to examine howglobal megatrends will change the real estate landscapeconsiderably over the next six years and beyond. Whilethese trends may already be evident, there is a naturaltendency to underestimate how much the real estate worldwill have changed by 2020.”These global megatrends are: A huge expansion in cities will producemixed results. By 2020, the 21st century’s greatmigration to the cities will be well underway. Cities willswell across the fast-growing countries in Asia, Africa,the Middle East and Latin America. Even the developedWestern nations will be urbanising, albeit at a slowerpace. But not all cities will prosper. While some willbecome great centres of wealth creation in a multipolarworld, others are likely to fail. Technology will disrupt real estate economics: Growthin online shopping will continue to reduce the needfor retail space, but shorter delivery times will increasethe need for warehouse space close to customers. Fordevelopers, technology advances will make eco-efficientbuilding more practical. Real estate capital will take financial centre stage. Privatecapital will play a critical role in funding the growingand changing need for real estate and its supportinginfrastructure. Just as asset managers, real estate fundsand sovereign wealth funds will find the assets undertheir control swell, so there will be a need to financeurbanisation. Private real estate capital will become animportant partner of governments. Real estate managerswill also need to leverage the full range of financingpossibilities to take on new types of risk, often with longterm investment horizons. Unprecedented shifts in population will drive changes inthe demand for real estate. The burgeoning middle-classpopulations in Asia, Africa and South America will needfar more housing. Meanwhile, the advanced economies’ageing populations will demand specialist types of realestate, while their requirements for family homes willmoderate. The emerging markets’ growth will ratchet upcompetition for assets. The growth of emerging countriesis rapidly creating powerful new real estate playersand new asset managers. As a result, there is bothgrowing competition for real estate assets and growingcompetition within real estate asset management. ‘Sustainability’ will transform the design of buildings anddevelopments, presenting opportunities and risks for realestate asset managers.French says: “There is a naturaltendency to underestimate how much thereal estate world will change by 2020.”4

Six predictions for 2020 – and beyond“The changing landscape will have major implications for the real estate investment anddevelopment,” adds Hage. The PwC study highlights six predictions and their implications forreal estate managers and the investment community.1. Real estate managers will need to think more globally,as global investable real estate will expand substantially,especially in emerging markets.2. Real estate managers will need to understand theunderlying economics of cities.3. Real estate managers will need to factor technology andsustainability into asset valuations.4. Real estate managers will need to decide where and howto compete as the competition for prime assets continuesto intensify.5. Real estate managers, the investment community anddevelopers will need to partner with the Governmentto mitigate risks of schemes that might otherwise beuneconomic.6. As the nature of real estate investment changes,demanding greater global specialisation, more risks willemerge. Climate change risk, accelerating behaviouralchange and political risk will be key.5

“The successful real estate managers of2020 will have already started to shapetheir responses to some or all of thechanges we have identified.”PwC Asset Management and Real Estate Leader forAfrica, Ilse FrenchTechnology is disrupting the way in which wedo businessTechnology is disrupting the way we interactwith each other and carry out business, andis having a profound impact on the way inwhich businesses operate in today’s newdigital economy.The expectation of companies and communities to go digitalis continually increasing. “While new organisations willembrace the concept of the digital era, more establishedones will need to think about how to transform theirbusinesses,” says Johan Potgieter, PwC Technology Leaderfor South Africa.More data is being generated than ever before, and acrossa broad spectrum of business interactions, hiding within itpotentially valuable business insights.6With the proliferation of mobile devices, the attachmentof physical sensors to ‘things’, smart appliances, energygrids, and data around web usage, the networked world iscreating vast amounts of data at a significantly increasingrate.Digital is a collective term which refers to an integrated andcollaborative platform that allows consumers, suppliers andorganisations to transact using various electronic devicesor technologies. It brings together emerging technologieswhich include social media, analytics and mobile to providea cost-effective and convenient distribution channel forconsumers to use.The world’s leading companies know that participationin social media is no longer an option but a requirement.While social media should not replace the art of traditionalcommunication, it can enhance the overall customerexperience in that it offers organisations a new way inwhich to engage in dialogue with customers, says Potgieter.

In just 60 secondsTwo million searches are conducted on70Google2 460 000new domains are registered278 000tweets are tweetedposts are posted on Facebook11 000professional searches are carried outon LinkedInSource: Qmee.comSuccessful social media stories US clothing retailer Gap scrapped its new logo in 2010 just one week after its introduction in the wake of an ‘outpouring ofcomments’ online.Google broke 1 billion users in 2013Instagram and Facebookhashtags took the world by storm in 2013Home-shopping consumers are placing their reliance on the InternetHome-shopping consumers are increasingly placing their reliance on the Internet. According to a study carried out byGoogle and the National Association of Realtors, 90% of prospective buyers used the Internet to search for properties,with 52% indicating that the Internet was the first step taken during the property-buying decision. The majority (70%)found their agent online.Source: Socialmediatoday.comTechnology is shaping the buildings of the futureWorldwide, new cities are being built, while those that we have lived in for centuries are being upgraded for thefuture. Potgieter says that technology is forcing us to relook the way in which we construct our buildings of the future.Buildings of the future should be low-energy, sustainable, and able to respond to future changes in the climate,technology and regulation.“Buildings of the future will become ‘green’, where there is a convergence of technology with real estate.”7

Companies of the futureThe digital era has all but obliterated traditional business models. To maintain relevance, organisations – and this appliesequally to the real estate industry – will need to rethink their approach to how they do business. Organisations mustplace innovation high on the agenda. They will require a business strategy for the new digital age. “They will also needto consider new forms of leadership, as well as increased levels of collaboration, greater innovation and faster decisionmaking than ever experienced before. This means an accelerated programme of change,” says Potgieter.In addition, organisations will need to think about how customers’ expectations and needs have changed in the light of newtechnology such as social media. “They will be required to have a deeper understanding and knowledge of their customersand how customers use their various products and services. This will also include a focus on new product concepts.”“Organisations will need to considernew forms of leadership, as well asincreased levels of collaboration, greaterinnovation and faster decision makingthan ever experienced before.”Johan Potgieter, PwC Technology Leader for South Africa8

Total retail – an outlook for South AfricaThe global financial crisis of 2008 and the recession that followedbrought with it pervasive uncertainty, which has been exacerbatedmore recently by the Eurozone crisis.These global events have been sorely felt in South Africawith its moderate GDP growth rate, high unemploymentand structural shortcomings in the economy.John Wilkinson, PwC Retail and Consumer Leader forSouth Africa, observes: “Retail and consumer productcompanies must contend with limited volume growth,increasing costs and falling prices.”PwC’s publication titled South African retail and consumerproducts outlook: 2012-2016, written in cooperation withthe Economist Intelligence Unit’s industry and managementresearch division, considers South Africa’s outlook for bothretailers and consumer goods firms, providing growthestimates for the 2012-16 forecast period. It reviews themajor opportunities that are present, the key pressuresfaced and some of the growth strategies being deployed.Total retail sales will continue to expand steadily from 2012to 2016, driven in particular by the continued emergenceof a black middle class. Both food and non-food sales willrack up steady, if unspectacular, growth. Measured byvolume, sales are expected to climb an average of 2.9%,after recovering from a low in 2012. By value, sales areanticipated to expand at an average of 7.85% in nominalterms. In 2011, the country’s retail sales surpassed a trillionrand for the first time in history, and they are likely to hitR1.46 trillion by 2016, according to the study.Every major retailer and consumer goods company hasstarted to expand into the rest of Africa, along withongoing efforts at home to expand retail space. Forretailers in particular, many are operating in tandem withproperty developers, opening up in parallel with new malldevelopments and shopping complexes.“As pressures on consumers’ walletsincrease, retail sales by value areexpected to slow this year. Theeconomic outlook going forwardis expected to be modest,” saysWilkinson.Nevertheless, most brands are treating the Africa aspectof their growth cautiously, given the significant risks andchallenges that remain. As a result, most are embracing astrategy of steady organic expansion.Online retailing remains a nicheproposition for the medium term,although growth is starting to accelerate.Growth in Internet access, which has long been a majorconstraint in South Africa, is now speeding up as the marketgets more competitive. South African consumers are lookingfor a full slate of shopping options, according to a newpublication recently released by PwC, titled Total Retail:Customer Expectations Driving the Next Retail Business Model.“The survey results are indicating clearly that onlineshopping is catching on rapidly with South Africanconsumers,” says Wilkinson. “Twenty-five per cent of SouthAfrican online shoppers have made their first ever onlinepurchase less than one year ago and 45% within the last twoyears.”Based on a survey of more than 15 000 online shoppersacross 15 countries, including South Africa, thestudy discloses eight consumer expectations that callupon retailers to create a ‘total retail’ business modeltransformation.South Africans want convenient physical store locations,websites that enable them to find and purchase products,and easy-to-use mobile sites or apps – and retailers need toadapt in order to compete.Consumers now view multichannel shopping as a given,and the costs and complexities of managing a multichannelmodel are too great and offer too few rewards to benefitthe customer experience. “Today’s non-stop shoppers havetaken things into their own hands, becoming more techsavvy than retailers. Consumers have the tools at theirfingertips to immerse themselves in the retail brand.”9

REIT regime to boost South Africa’s listedproperty sectorThe REIT is one of the most flexible regimes internationally,and this is a significant development for South Africa’spublicly traded real estate sector. Currently, more than 25countries worldwide use a similar REIT model, such as theUS, Belgium, the UK, France, Japan and Singapore.To address the anomalies between the taxation of PropertyLoan Stock Companies (PLS) and Property Unit Trusts(PUT), National Treasury announced in late 2012 that aunified position to the taxation of property investmentvehicles would be implemented. Both will be able to qualifyas a REIT in terms of the JSE listing requirements. Section25BB, which governs the taxation of REITs, was insertedwith effect from 1 April 2013. The legislation aims toprovide certainty to investors in REITs with regard to the taxposition of the REIT and that of the investor.The JSE’s rules to list as a REIT provide: A South AfricanREIT must own at least R300 million worth of property.It must keep its debt below 60% of its gross asset value. Itmust also earn 75% of its income from rental, from propertyowned, or from investment income from indirect propertyownership. It must have special measures in place tomonitor risk and must not enter into derivative instrumentsthat are not part of the ordinary course of business. Finally,a REIT must pay at least 75% of its taxable earningsavailable for distribution to its investors each year.Once the PLS or PUT is listed as a REIT on the JSE, it will beknown as a ‘company REIT’ or a ‘trust REIT’, respectively.It will then qualify for the tax dispensation provided undersection 25BB.“The South African REIT (Real Estate Investment Trusts)tax regime provides a clear and certain tax structure,bringing it in line with international norms,” says CraigMiller, PwC Tax Mergers and Acquisitions Director. After asix-year journey, the international REIT regime was finallyimplemented in South Africa with effect from 1 April 2013.Any qualifying company with a tax year commencing on1 April 2013 or thereafter can adopt the South African REITstructure at the start of its tax year.10Miller points out that a REIT is exempt from capital gainstax (CGT) on the disposal of its immovable property, sharesin another REIT or shares in a controlled property company.The holder of the REIT share will only pay CGT when theREIT share is sold.Furthermore, the shareholders of a South African REIT willnot have to pay securities transfer tax on buying or sellingSouth African REIT shares.

“An extraordinary journeywith a remarkable goal”Guest speaker Estienne de Klerk,President of the South AfricanProperty Owners Association (SAPOA)and executive director of GrowthPoint Properties Limited, says thatthe introduction of the REIT regimecomes after more than six years ofconsultation with National Treasury.De Klerk gives a graphic account of this“extraordinary journey”, detailing howthe listed property sector, spearheadedby the South African REIT Association,actively campaigned for the REITstructure to align it with internationalnorms. It worked closely with NationalTreasury, the South African RevenueService, the Financial Services Board(FSB), the JSE, and the Associationof Property Unit Trusts in achievingthis remarkable goal. The aim was tobring about transparency, simplicity,efficiency and tax certainty.De Klerk says that the propertysector will need to contend with thecontinuing pressures of above-inflationincreases in administered costs, suchas electricity, and rates and taxes. Healso highlights the skills shortage andpoor education as other areas of highpriority, as well as attracting tourismand foreign investment to the country.Future trends in the listedproperty sectorThe sector saw a number of listingsduring 2013. Historically, listingstend to be followed by consolidation.Larger companies trading at low yieldsare buying entities trading at higheryields. The REIT industry is alsoexpected to encourage consolidationin the sector.Expansion into Africa will also remaina theme, he says. Each country hasits own set of laws, regulations andtax regime. “In the future we willsee a larger, more transparent listedproperty sector.”A growing global population,demographic shifts, and climatechange have all brought sustainabilityto the top of the political and businessagendas. Reporting on social andenvironmental issues has become moreimportant than ever, as consumers,investors and other stakeholdersOverview of the SouthAfrican REIT industryThe South African listed propertyindustry has experienced substantialgrowth over the past decade.The sector is dominated by a fewlarge entities, with the biggest 10accounting for about 80 per cent of thesector’s market capitalisation. Thereare currently 27 entities listed as REITson the JSE, with more attempts tobring new entities onto the exchange.According to the South African REITAssociation, REITs represent aboutR233 billion worth of real estateassets. South Africa is estimated tobe the eighth-largest REIT marketglobally, with the US dominating theglobal REIT sector. Most South AfricanREITs invest in commercial properties,such as shopping malls, warehouses,hotels, hospitals, and office buildings,with some investment in propertiesoffshore.“Consolidation is on the cards for the listedproperty sector for 2014. Expansion intoAfrica will also remain a them

global megatrends will change the real estate landscape considerably over the next six years and beyond. While these trends may already be evident, there is a natural tendency to underestimate how much the real estate world will have changed by 2020.” These global megatrends are:

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