October Nor’easter

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October Nor’easterDecision Support Briefing #1As of: 600 PM Oct 25, 2021 Flash flood Watch continuesthrough Tuesday afternoon Winds Advisory in effect intoWednesday for E LI and Se CT Coastal Flood Advisory now ineffect for much of the area forTuesday high tides. Gale and Storm warnings now ineffect for all marine waters Tuesdayinto Wednesday.Current HazardsWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Main PointsHazardFlash Flooding3-5” LikelyLocally5-7” Possible”Strong WindImpacts Scattered Flash Flooding of Urbanand poor drainage areas. Locallysevere flooding possible. Minor to moderate flooding alongsmall rivers and streams. Significant Rises on Large StemRivers, with minor floodingpossible 25-35G40-60mph Coastal Impacts1 to 2 ft inundationAGL in vulnerableareasMarineGale to StormConditions Scattered Downed Trees and PowerLines.Power outages PossibleMinor to locally moderate coastalflooding.Areas of Dune Erosion and localizedoverwashes for ocean beachfront.Wind gusts of 35-45 KT.Seas of 10-15 ft on the Ocean.Seas of 3-6 ft on LI Sound.Location Entire Tri-State Region Highest rainfall amountslikely across westernportions of the Tri-State All coastal communitiesincluding NYC. Highest winds across E LIand SE CT. Highest threat foroceanfront and vulnerablelocales along S and E Baysof LI, and W LI SoundAll Nearshore WatersWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookTimingTonight through TuesdayafternoonEarly Tuesday AM intoWednesday afternoonDuring times of high tideTuesday. Lingering into TueNight and Wed high tides.Tuesday AM into Wednesday PMPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Summary of Greatest ImpactsFlash Flooding: Entire Tri-State RegionNoneLimitedElevatedSignificantExtremeStrong Winds: Coastal Communities including NYCNoneLimitedElevatedSignificantExtremeCoastal Impacts: Highest threat for vulnerable locales along S and EBays of LI and W LI SignificantExtremeMarine: Nearshore WatersNoneLimitedWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Heavy Rain and Flash Flood PotentialExcessive Rainfall Outlook for Tonight into TuesdayHazards: StormTotal Rainfall: 3 to 5”, locally 5 to 7” for NYC/NE NJ, Lower Hud, SW CT, andW LI 2 to 4”, locally 3 to 5” for E LI and SE CT Rainfall Rates: (Mainly NYC/NE NJ, Lower Hud, SW CT, and W LI) Moderate potential for 1”/hr Low potential for 2”/hrImpacts: Scattered flash flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying Roads, andSmall Streams and Creeks. Locally severe flooding possible. Minor to moderate flooding likely along several quick respondingsmall rivers and streams of NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and SWCT. Significant Rises along large stem rivers with minor flooding possible.Timing: Bands of rain develop after 8pm, Heaviest and steadiest rain from 4amto 4pm. Embedded thunderstorm possible. Light to moderate rainbands Tue eve into Tue Night, before ending.Uncertainty: The exact location and movement of a slow moving band of heavy rainwith embedded thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday afternoon willdetermine whether and where a swath of 5 to 7 inches of rainfall falls.1”/hr rainfall rates are likely in this band, with potential for as much as2”/hr rainfall rates. Outside of this band, rainfall rates will generally run1/4” to 1/2“/hr.Weather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Flash Flood PotentialFlash Flood Watch from 8pm Tonight until 5 pm TuesdayWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Official Rainfall ForecastHighest threat for locally5 to 7” of rainfall, andlocally more severe flashflood impacts.Weather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

River ForecastsSeveral small rivers and streams in NENJ, Lower Hudson valley, southwesternCT, and the Bronx are expected to reachminor to moderate flood stage in the next24 hours.Larger main stem rivers will see significantrises over the next 48 hrs, with minor floodstage possible to be reached.Latest river forecasts can be found here.You can also refer to the Mid- Atlantic orNortheast River Forecast Center for thelatest information on river weather.gov/nerfc/Weather Forecast OfficeFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Strong WindsHazards: Coastal Areas including NYC - Northeast toNorth winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 60mph Tuesday into Wednesday. Highest winds (locally damaging windgusts) across E LI and SE CT TuesdayNight into Wed afternoon. Interior- Northeast to North winds of 20 to 25 mphwith gusts 30 to 40 mph Tuesday into Wednesday.Peak Wind Gust ImageImpacts: Scattered downed trees and tree limbs, with poweroutage possible. Dangerous travel conditions for high profilevehiclesTiming: Strong East to Northeast winds from 4am tonightthru Tuesday afternoon. Strong Northerly winds Tuesday night intoWednesday afternoonWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Coastal FloodingCoastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:Marine / Coastal Hazards Minor to locally Moderate coastal flooding. Inundation of 1 to 1 1/2 ft, locally 2 ft aboveground, particularly in vulnerable locales alongWestern LI Sound. Southern Nassau andPeconic Bay Several waterfront road closures possible During times of high tide Tuesday afternoon.Shoreline Hazards and Impacts: 8-12’ breaking waves along the oceanfront Tuesdayinto Tuesday Night. 3 to 6’ along the twin forks, 3 to 5’ along Western LIsound shoreline Tuesday. Areas of dune erosion with localized overwashes foroceanfront during time of high tide Tue and Tue Night.Please go to the NWS New York, NY Coastal Flooding Pagefor the latest coastal flood forecast and the tools tovisualize the coastal ather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterMarine Hazards and Impacts: Gale conditions on all waters, and storm conditionsfor water east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday throughWednesday. Seas of 10 to 15 ft on the ocean, 3 to 6 ft on LISound Tuesday into Tue Night.Outlook: Localized minor coastal flooding possible TuesdayNight high tide, particularly bay areas. Another round of minor coastal flooding possibleWednesday afternoon, particularly bay and north facingshorelines.Presentation CreatedFollow us on Facebook10/25/2021 7:40 PM

Event Summary Flash Flood Watch in effect for entire area Tonight through Tuesday. 3 to 5”, with locally 5 to 7” of rain for portions of the region. Locally severe urban and poor drainage flash flooding possible. Minor to moderate small river and stream flooding likely. Strong winds across coastal portions of the region Tuesday intoWednesday. Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding during times of high tide onTuesday. Gale to Storm conditions on the nearshore waters Tuesday intoWednesdayWeather Forecast OfficeNew York, NYFollow us on TwitterFollow us on FacebookPresentation Created10/25/2021 7:40 PM

During times of high tide Tuesday afternoon. Shoreline Hazards and Impacts: 8-12’ breaking waves along the oceanfront Tuesday into Tuesday Night. 3 to 6’ along the twin forks, 3 to 5’ along Western LI sound shoreline Tuesday. Areas of dune erosion with localized overwashes for oceanfront dur

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