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Results Embargoed Until Monday, September 26 at 12:01AMPress Contact InformationMileah KromerDirector, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Centermileah.kromer@goucher.eduChris Landerschris.landers@goucher.eduOffice: 410-337-3088Hogan Remains Popular; Marylanders Divided on Fracking BanBaltimore—The Goucher Poll asked Maryland residents about their opinions toward GovernorLarry Hogan; the most important issue facing the state; perceptions toward state governmentstructure and process; the post-Labor Day start to Maryland public schools; concern toward theZika virus; and hydraulic fracturing. The Goucher Poll surveyed 668 Maryland residents fromSeptember 17-20 and has a margin of error of /-3.8 percent.Residents Supportive of Governor Hogan and Optimistic on Direction of the StateWhen asked about the most important issue facing the state, residents chose education (22percent), economic growth and development (13 percent), and jobs and unemployment (10percent). The trend of optimism about the direction of the state continues; 65 percent think thestate is heading in the right direction.Governor Larry Hogan remains popular in Maryland. Seventy percent approve of the job he isdoing as governor, 12 percent disapprove, and 17 percent don’t know. Residents were alsoprobed on the main reason why they either approved or disapproved of the job Hogan is doing.Top reasons for approval among those who approve:41 percent say his leadership and/or how he runs the government12 percent say they like him personally or his personal attributes11 percent say he either has or will lower taxes/tolls/feesTop reasons for disapproval among those who disapprove:33 percent say he hasn’t done enough or the right things26 percent say his handling of education or education-related issues11 percent say his handling of public transportation or transportation issues1

Hogan’s public decision not to endorse or vote for presidential candidate Donald Trump appearsto be a good move in the eyes of many Marylanders. Forty-four percent of Marylanders say hisdecision not to vote for Trump changes their opinion of the governor for the better, 50 percentsay it makes no difference, and only 5 percent say it made their opinion of Hogan worse.Cooperation and Divided GovernmentWhen there is a lack of cooperation in state politics, the majority of residents (67 percent) holdboth Governor Hogan and the Democratic leadership in Maryland equally responsible. Eightpercent say they typically hold Hogan responsible and 18 percent say they hold the Democraticleadership in Maryland responsible.Fifty percent of residents think government works better when the governor is from the samepolitical party that controls the state legislature and 21 percent of residents think that governmentworks better if the governor is from a different party than the one which controls the statelegislature. Seventeen percent volunteered that it either “doesn’t make a difference” or “itdepends on the party.”Executive Orders and the Post-Labor Day StartOn August 31, Governor Hogan signed an executive order moving the official start date ofMaryland public schools until after the Labor Day Weekend. The Goucher Poll has asked aboutthis issue in previous polls, when it was a proposal spearheaded by Comptroller Peter Franchot.Fifty-four percent of residents think that governors should rarely or never use executive orders toput regulations into effect without approval from the state legislature; 41 percent think governorsshould use them sometimes or frequently.Respondents were randomly assigned different versions of a question gauging opinions towardstarting school after Labor Day. One version informed the respondent that the official move to apost-Labor Day start was the result of an executive order and the other did not. There was nostatistical difference between the results of the two questions. 67 support the executive order that moved the official start date to Maryland publicschools until after Labor Day Weekend.68 support the move of the official start date to Maryland public schools until after LaborDay Weekend.“Nearly a month after Governor Hogan’s executive order and heightened public criticism fromkey lawmakers and education advocates, as well as recent questions concerning the legality ofthe executive order from the Maryland Attorney General’s Office, a post-Labor Day start forMaryland public schools remains popular with the general public.” said Dr. Mileah Kromer,Director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “This issue highlights larger questionsconcerning executive control and power during a time of divided government in Maryland.”2

FrackingIn 2017, the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in Maryland is set to expire. The MarylandGeneral Assembly may consider a measure to place a permanent ban on the natural gasextraction method during the upcoming legislative session.Half of Marylanders indicate they have heard “some” or “a lot” about hydraulic fracturing,commonly known as fracking, while 47 percent say they have heard “nothing” or “only a little”about it.Individuals who indicated they had heard at least “a little” about fracking were asked whether thestate should ban the drilling practice in the state. Residents were divided on the issue—43percent support a ban, 32 oppose it, and 24 percent don’t know whether the state should banfracking.Concerns over the Zika VirusThirty-six percent of Maryland residents are “not at all” or “a little” concerned over an outbreakof a disease like the Zika virus and 64 percent are “somewhat” or “very” concerned. In October2014, the Goucher Poll found similar levels of concern when residents were asked about Ebola—66 percent were “very” or “somewhat” concerned over the outbreak of a disease like Ebola.President Barack Obama and CongressPresident Obama’s job approval ratings among Marylanders have remained consistent during thefinal stretch of his time in office. Sixty-six percent of Maryland residents approve of the job he isdoing, while 29 percent disapprove. Marylanders continue to express their disapproval withCongress; 80 percent disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job.3

Results Embargoed Until Monday, September 26 at 12:01AMPress Contact InformationMileah KromerDirector, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Centermileah.kromer@goucher.eduChris Landerschris.landers@goucher.eduOffice: 410-337-3088About the Goucher PollThe Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center atGoucher College. Directed by Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on publicpolicy, economic, and social issues in Maryland.Goucher College supports the Goucher Poll as part of its mission to instill in its students a senseof community where discourse is valued and practiced. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by theSarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding fromoutside sources.The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic SurveyResearch Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion ResearchTransparency Initiative.The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in the state by providing neutral, nonbiased,and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by theGoucher Poll are used to support faculty and student research.4

Survey MethodologyTo ensure all Maryland residents are represented, the Goucher Poll is conducted using randomdigit dialing (RDD) of a county-level stratified random sample using landline and cellulartelephone numbers. The sample of telephone numbers for the survey is obtained from SurveySampling International, LLC (http://www.surveysampling.com/).The survey was conducted Saturday, September 17, to Tuesday, September 20, 2016. During thistime, interviews were conducted 12p.m-9p.m on Saturday and Sunday and 5-9 p.m. and5-9 p.mMonday and Tuesday. The Goucher Poll uses Voxco Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing(CATI) software to administer its surveys. Interviews are conducted by a staff of professionallytrained, paid, student interviewers.Interviewers attempted to reach respondents with working phone numbers a maximum of fivetimes. Only Maryland adults—residents aged 18 years or older—were eligible to participate.Interviews were not conducted with adults who were reached at business or work numbers.Sixty-four percent of the interviews were conducted on a cell phone, and 36 percent wereconducted on a landline.Interviews for this survey were completed with 668 Maryland residents. For a sample size of668, there is a 95 percent probability the survey results have a plus or minus 3.8 percentage pointsampling error from the actual population distribution for any given survey question. Margins oferror are higher for subsamples.5

Survey Question DesignThe Goucher Poll provides the questions as worded and the order in which they are administeredto respondents.BRACKETED ITEMS [ ]: Items and statements in brackets are rotated to ensure respondentsdo not receive a set order of response options presented to them, which maintains questionconstruction integrity by avoiding respondent agreement based on question composition.Example: [agree or disagree] or [disagree or agree]PROBE (p): Some questions contain a “probe” maneuver to determine a respondent’s intensityof opinion/perspective. Probe techniques used in this questionnaire mainly consist of asking arespondent if his or her response is more intense than initially provided.Example: Do you have a [favorable or unfavorable] opinion of President Obama?PROBE: Would you say very favorable/unfavorable?OPEN-ENDED: No response options are provided for an open-ended question, i.e., it is entirelyup to the respondent to provide the response information. Any response options provided to theinterviewer are not read to respondent; they are only used to help reduce interviewer error andtime in coding the response.VOLUNTEER (v): Volunteer responses means the interviewer did not offer that responseoption in the question as read to the interviewer. Interviewers are instructed not to offer “don’tknow” or “refused” or “some other opinion” to the respondent, but the respondent is free tovolunteer that information for the interviewer to record.6

Sample Demographics (in percent)Maryland AdultPopulationParameter(Census Estimates)Weighted SampleEstimateMaryland Adults(N 668)MarylandRegistered Voters(N 585)GenderMale484848Female52525218 to 2413131125 to 3418171635 to 4417171745 to 5420212155 to 6417171865 RegionPopulation parameters are based on Census estimates as of July 2011.Sample is weighted by age, region, and race.7

Distribution of RegionsCapitol–Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’sCentral–Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, HowardEastern–Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico,WorcesterSouthern–Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’sWestern–Allegany, Garrett, WashingtonRegistered VotersRegistered voter screen question:Q: REGVOTEAre you registered to vote at your current address?If “Yes” follow up: Are you registered as a Republican, Democrat, Independent,unaffiliated or something else?Of the 668 Maryland residents surveyed, 585 indicated they were registered voters with theDemocratic, Republican, or other party or registered unaffiliated (i.e. independent).Maryland Voter Registration/Likely Voters (in percent)WeightedMarylandSampleEstimateBoard of ElectionsRegistrationRegistered(August 2016)Voters(N 585)Democratic Party5557Republican Party2624171514Unaffiliated(Independent)Other Party(Green/Libertarian/Other)100 /-4.0Information on voter registration in Maryland from the Board of Elections can be found athttp://www.elections.state.md.us.Total 1008

The following questions were asked to the full sample of 668 Maryland adults. Results are inpercent and may not add up exactly to 100 due to weighting and rounding. Please see ourrelease from Thursday, September 22 for our likely voter (US Senate and US Presidential)poll.Q: IMPISSUEWhat do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?[OPEN-ENDED]FEB16Education22Economy/economic growth/development13Job growth/unemployment10Crime/criminal justice or police9Taxes8Environmental issues or concerns4Immigration ugs (i.e. heroin)3Budget deficit2Guns/gun control2Politicians in office/how government runs2Race and racial inequality1Other:5Don't Know / Refused (v)10Total 668 /-3.89

Q: OBAMAJOBDo you [approve or disapprove] of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?PROBEOCTSEPTOCTSEPT13141516Strongly disapprove ly approve (p)22232835Don’t know (v)5775Refused (v)1211665 /-3.8708 /-3.7636 /-3.9668 /-3.8Q: CONGJOBDo you [approve or disapprove] of the way Congress is handling its job?PROBEOCTSEPTOCT131415SEPT16Total Strongly disapprove (p)62465447Disapprove29332933Approve411811Strongly approve (p)1312Don’t know (v)4777Refused (v)1411665 /-3.8708 /-3.7636 /-3.9668 /-3.8Total 10

Q: HOGANJOBDo you [approve or disapprove] of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as governor?PROBEFEBOCTFEBSEPT15151616Strongly disapprove (p)4343Disapprove1315139Approve32424345Strongly approve (p)8162025Don’t know (v)43232117Refused (v)1101619 /-3.9636 /-3.9545 /-4.2668 /-3.8Total Respondents who indicate they “don’t know” or “refused” were skipped to ENDORSE.If respondent indicates they “strongly approve” or “approve” they received:Q: HOGANAPPSince you said you approve of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor, what wouldyou say is the main reason for your approval?[OPEN-ENDED]SEPT16His leadership/how he runs government41His personal attributes/like himpersonally12He lowered/will lower taxes/tolls11How he handles theeconomy/budget/state financesHow he handles education/educationissues99Other9Don’t know/Refused (v)9468 /-4.5Total 11

If respondent indicates they “strongly disapprove” or “disapprove” they received:Please note that 79 respondents received this question. The margin of error for thisquestion is /-11.3.Q: HOGANDISSince you said you disapprove of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor, what wouldyou say is the main reason for your disapproval?[OPEN-ENDED]SEPT16He hasn’t done enough or the right thingsHow he handles education/educationissuesHow he handles public transportationissuesLack of care about Baltimore/otherspecific geographic areas3326119He is a Republican or conservative2Other8Don’t know / Refused (v)1279 /-11.3Total Q: ENDORSEAs you may have heard, Governor Larry Hogan has decided not to endorse or vote forpresidential candidate Donald Trump. Does this decision change your opinion of GovernorHogan for [the better, the worse, or does it make no difference to you]?SEPT16Worse5No Difference50Better44Don’t know (v)1Total 668 /-3.812

Q: TRACKIn general, do you think things in the state [are headed in the right direction or are off on thewrong track]?OCTSEPTOCTSEPT13141516Wrong track46523319Right direction45385665Don’t know/Refused (v)10101117665 /-3.8708 /-3.7636 /-3.9668 /-3.8Total [EXEC to ENDORSE Rotated]Q: EXECAs you may know, an executive order is something done by a governor that can put someregulations into effect without approval from the state legislature. Thinking generally, howoften—[never, rarely, sometimes, or frequently]—do you think governors should useexecutive on’t know (v)5Total 668 /-3.813

Q: LACKOkay, when there is a lack of cooperation in state government, who do you typically view asmore responsible—[Governor Larry Hogan OR the Democratic leadership in Maryland] orare they equally as responsible?SEPT16Governor Larry Hogan8Democratic Leadership18Equally as responsible67Don’t know/Refused (v)7Total 668 /-3.8Q: DIVIDEDDoes state government typically work better when the governor is from [the/a same ORdifferent political party than/as] the party that controls the state legislature?SEPT16Same as legislature (one-party50government)Different than legislature (divided21government)Makes no difference / Depends (v)17Don’t know / Refused (v)12Total 668 /-3.814

Q: POLICYINTNext, I’m going to ask you about a few policies and issues. . .SPLIT SAMPLE ½ of respondents receive START1 ½ of respondents receive START2Note: SEPT16ALL combines the responses from START1 and START2.Q: START1Next, as you may have heard, the official start date of Maryland public schools is moved to afterLabor Day Weekend beginning next year. Do you [support or oppose] this move? PROBEQ: START2Next, as you may have heard, an executive order moved the official start of Maryland publicschools to after Labor Day Weekend beginning next year. Do you [support or oppose] thisexecutive order? PROBEFEB15OCT15SEPTSEPT1616START1 START2SEPT16ALLStrongly oppose (p)79697Oppose111091612Support3431323031Strongly support (p)3841363737Don’t know (v)9717712Refused (v)11011619636345322668 /-3.9 /-3.9 /-5.3 /-5.5 /-3.8Note: FEB15 and OCT15 question wording—Next, as you may have heard, there is a proposalto move the official start date of Maryland public schools to after Labor Day Weekend. Do you[support or oppose] this proposal? PROBETotal 15

Q: OUTBREAKIs the outbreak of a disease—like the Zika virus—in the United States something that you are[very, somewhat, a little, or not at all] concerned about?OCTSEPT1416Not at all concerned1514A little concerned1822Somewhat concerned2632Very concerned4032Don’t know (v)10Refused (v)00708668 /-3.7 /-3.8Note: OCT14 question wording—Changing subjects, is the outbreak of a disease—like Ebola—in the United States something you are [very, somewhat, a little, or not at all] concernedabout?Total 16

Q: FRACK1How much have you heard—[a lot, some, little or nothing at all]—about hydraulic fracturing,commonly known as fracking?OCTSEPT1416Nothing at all3421A little1926Some1521A lot2829Don’t know (v)53Refused (v)10708 /-3.7668 /-3.8Total If respondent indicated they knew “nothing at all,” “don’t know,” or “refused” they were notgiven FRACK2.Q: FRACK2Do you [support or oppose] a ban on hydraulic fracturing in Maryland?PROBEOCTSEPT1416Strongly oppose (p)1311Oppose1821Support2221Strongly support (p)3022Don’t know (v)1724Refused (v)11470504 /-4.5 /-4.4NOTE: OCT14 question wording—Would you [support or oppose] a ban on hydraulicfracturing, or fracking, here in Maryland? PROTotal 17

18597518167818-34(n 198)720675638186525047107677143061Age35-54(n 250)11255650441667951401074876385955 (n 210)1026586036186774745137283104251White(n 390)8779465021581524412687814690RaceBlack(n 215)511844648187065636106766192270Other(n 63)GenderMaleFemale(n 320) (n 348)514382756Registered VotersDemIndRep(n 331) (n 91) (n 143)10877Results by Demographics (in percent) Column percentages Unless specified, “Don’t Know,” “Refused,” and other volunteered responses are not included below Margin of error is higher for subsamples Refer to tables above for questions as wordedObama ApprovalDisapproveApproveCongress ApprovalDisapproveApproveHogan ApprovalDisapproveApproveHogan on TrumpWorseNo differenceBetterDirection of StateWrong TrackRight DirectionUse of Exec OrdersNever or RarelySometimes or FrequentlyLack of CooperationGovernor Larry HoganDemocratic LeadershipEqually as responsible1

Divided/one-partyGov from same partyGov from diff partyNo difference/dependsPost-Labor Day Start (all)OpposeSupportConcern over ZikaNot or a LittleSomewhat or VeryFracking AttentionNothing or A littleSome or A lotFracking banOpposeSupportDon't 197243302042411540574456206346

The survey was conducted Saturday, September 17, to Tuesday, September 20, 2016. During this time, interviews were conducted 12p.m-9p.m on Saturday and Sunday and 5-9 p.m. and5-9 p.m Monday and Tuesday. The Goucher Poll uses Voxco Computer-Assisted Telephon

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