Future Of Risk - PwC

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The Futureof RiskThe insurance Risk Function of the futureSeptember 2019

ContentsIntroduction and foreword1The layers of disruption4The Risk Function in 2030: our vision of the future6Pillar 1 – Technology8Pillar 2 – Data and enhanced analytics10Pillar 3 – Skills and capabilities14Pillar 4 – Culture16The road to 2030 for the CRO20Contacts24

Introductionand forewordThere is an old analogy about aninsurance company being likea car. Inside this car, the ChiefUnderwriting Officer is in thefootwell, with his foot hard on theaccelerator pedal. The CEO issitting firmly in the driving seat,but he is blindfolded. It’s OK though– The Chief Actuary is looking out ofthe rear-view mirror telling the CEOwhere to go.It’s a story which is pretty amusing and probably a littleunfair, but it does play to some of the limitations thatBoards and management of insurance companies have.Underwriters and Sales and marketing officers have oftenbeen incentivised on volume rather than profit. CEOs haveoften had the skills and the controls available to thembut been limited by a lack of forward looking, decisionsupporting management information. Chief Actuaries areoften brilliant at using historical data and judgment to dotheir best to try to predict the future.Enter the CRO: the newest of the senior functions.The first CRO role in the insurance industry was createdat the turn of the millennium. If we continue the storyabove, we would like to see the CRO in the passengerseat, looking out of the front windscreen and being ableto give clear instructions to the CEO on the road ahead,the obstacles and hazards to be aware of and how tosafely navigate to the chosen destination. So what isholding them back, and what does the future hold?The growing role of the CRO already feels similar to theprevious journey of the CFO. Over the past 25 years, the CFOhas moved from being the ‘chief accountant’ responsible forreporting the numbers, to being a critical strategic partnerof the CEO. The growth of risk as a discipline, the ongoingresponse from shareholders to the lessons of the financialcrisis and the growth of risk based capital regimes meanthat the CRO is now heading in the same direction.The Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future1

Today’s CROFuture proofing the risk functionIn 2019, many CROs suffer from the same barriers that havetraditionally impacted the actuarial profession: a reliance onuse of historic data; a focus on backward looking analysis;and the lack of timely reporting.Throughout this report, we aim to look at the key driverswhich we believe will shape the Future of Risk. The RiskFunction needs to be developing constantly. The underlyingrisks that insurers have are ever-changing and as a result,the Risk Function needs to adapt in order to support,challenge and add value to the business. Over the longerterm, this will require investment in people, training andtechnology. Whilst the purpose and ambition of the futureRisk Function may not change, the ways of working arelikely to be transformed.These barriers give rise to a series of challenges that thwartthe ability of the CRO to be genuinely forward looking. Data is often lacking in quality or availability.Sometimes it is available, but not until it is too late.Risk appetite metrics are often reported some weeksafter a period end. In some instances, by the timethe Risk Committee looks at the risk profile and riskappetite, so much time has elapsed that any actionstaken are likely to be ineffective.Investment in risk systems fail to keep pace with othertechnology investments. Reporting is commonlyproduced manually and relies on the risk analystaggregating data supplied by the business. There islittle time for checking and challenge.The activities in risk tend to be dominated by regulatorycompliance and actuarial or capital modelling tasks.There is little in the way of deep analytical skills.The skills in risk typically have little in the way of deepanalytical capability.So what do we foresee for the Risk Function of the future?Over the following pages, we set out our vision for the futureof risk. Harnessing the power of technology and combiningthis with more data than ever before. Transforming the skillsof the Risk Function to be able to use the latest in predictiveanalytics, meaning the CRO becomes the trusted co-driversitting in the passenger seat next to the CEO. Togetherwith the other trusted adviser, the CFO, becoming the‘holy trinity’ of the strategic partnership.2PwCAs we consider the future of risk, it is important to thinkabout the future world that the Risk Function will be workingin. When looking at the future, it is easy to become verysci-fi about what will happen in our environments and howwe interact; from being carried around on intelligent hoverplates to services being provided with just the promptof a thought. However real or fantastic those scenariosare, we believe there will need to be a significant rethinkand transformation before we get close to these futuristictheories. In this report, we have used a reference point intime where we believe it is likely businesses will be in anenvironment that utilises “augmented intelligence” seeanalysis opposite; we therefore place this around 2030.Augmented intelligence describes a stage where bothhuman players and computerised players have a rolealongside each other, with technology, data and analyticsworking in concert with interventions from humans.In this report we talk about the megatrends and shiftsin the world that are disrupting both businesses andthe risks they face, and a vision for the role of theCRO and the Risk Function in 2030. We describe whatwe believe are the four pillars that will form the RiskFunction of the future and conclude with how we seethe function evolving over time to meet the demandsof the future. The future CRO will need to adapt tothese new surroundings, so what are they most likelyto be facing?

Autonomous IntelligenceAnd beyondAugmented IntelligenceEmerging/2030Assisted IntelligenceTodayAutomating repetitive,standardised ortime-consumingtasks and providingassisted intelligence.Increased demand forSTEM skills to build anew tech ecosystem.Fundamental changein the nature ofwork. Humans andmachines collaborateto make decisions.Adaptive continuousintelligent systems takeover decision-making.The future of humans atwork is questioned.Uniquely human traits –emotional intelligence,creativity, persuasion,innovation – becomemore valuable.This diagram was initially produced in the Workforce of the future paper1 to demonstrate how digital and artificialintelligence may change the world of work.1 e-thehcompeting-forces-shaping-2030-pwc.pdfThe Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future3

The layersof disruptionFor the CRO considering the risklandscape of the future, there isplenty of information out thereto start to plan. The first stepis to understand the potentialchanges to insurance businessin the next decade.The world and the way we live and do business continuesto change rapidly. We would all agree that by the time wearrive in 2030 insurance will be very different. The speed atwhich both the adoption of the internet and of other digitalways of working has progressed is faster than anyone wouldhave predicted. Today’s business world is so very differentfrom 10 or 15 years ago – for example the first iPhone wasonly launched in 2007. PwC has undertaken significantanalysis to identify factors that will underpin the drivers offuture change.As the insurance industry changes to adapt to the externalworld, the Risk Function must keep pace. At the same timeas understanding the ways in which business is changing,the Risk Function will need to look at how it can transformitself to stay relevant and build its value.With the volume of change ininsurance companies, the RiskFunction has to adapt to stayrelevant and increase its value.234Opposite we have highlighted megatrends as identifiedin our PwC megatrends report2, the key themes from thePwC CEO survey 20193 and consider future trends whichcould affect the insurance nsurance-trends.htmlPwC

Megatrends: Five global shifts changing the way we live and do businessRapid urbanisationBy 2030, the UNprojects that 4.9billion people will beurban dwellers and,by 2050, the world’surban population willhave increased bysome 72%4. Potentialinsurance outcomescould be a dramaticincrease in the sharingeconomy, but also tomore worrying trendslike an increase incrime, particularlywhere large numbersof people feelreplaced or alienatedby technology.Climate change andresource scarcityDemand for energyand water is forecastto increase by asmuch as 50% and40% respectively by20305. Our planet isunable to supportcurrent productionand consumptionmodels, which will beexacerbated by theexpected increase inthe population.Shift in globaleconomic powerThe rapidlydeveloping nations,particularly thosewith a large workingage population,that embrace abusiness ethos,attract investmentand improve theireducation systemwill gain the most.Emerging nations facethe biggest challengeas technologyincreases the gulf withthe developed world;unemployment andmigration will continueto be rampant withoutsignificant, sustainedinvestment. Theerosion of the middleclass, wealth disparityand job losses due tolarge-scale automationwill increase the riskof social unrest indeveloped countries.Demographic andsocial changeWith a few regionalexceptions the world’spopulation is aging,putting pressureon business, socialinstitutions andeconomies. Our longerlife span will affectbusiness models,talent ambitionsand pension costs.Older workers willneed to learn newskills and work forlonger. ‘Re-tooling’will become the norm.The shortage of ahuman workforce ina number of rapidlyaging economieswill drive the needfor automationand sAutomation, roboticsand AI are advancingquickly, dramaticallychanging the natureand number of jobsavailable. Existingorganisations werenot developedfor technologicaladaptation whereasoganisations withinemerging economiesare more able to adoptnew technology.New technologysuch as blockchain,3D printing, cantransforms the waywe live. Organisationswill need to adapt tonew regulation aroundthose technologies.Insights fromexperience designConstant improvementis now the rule ofthumb. Recognisingthat work gets donebut is never reallyfinished is a majorshift in thinking forthe industry. Thiscontinuous cycle oflaunch, learn, adapt,and relaunch is ofreal value to theorganisation.Digitalisation ischanging the way aninsurer interacts withtheir customers.Online portalsthat contain policydocumentation, handlethe claims processand provide a platformfor secure two-waycommunication isforcing a change toback-office processingand improvedcustomer experience.Responsible AICloud computinghas acceleratedAI developmentand revealed newpossibilities for its use.However, with newtechnology comes newrisks which must beaddressed.Threat fromBig TechTechnology giantshave more influencethan ever in the marketplace and society andsociety will demandthat they manage theirimpact responsibly.Current insurance industry trends (CEO survey 2019)Getting value fromthe digital journeyUnifying and updatingsystems will allowbusinesses to createunique customerjourneys aroundnew insurance thus,elevating their place inthe market.If we can imagine it,for the first time, wecan do it?As the technologicalenvironment hasmatured over the lastdecade, cloud andmicroservices arenow enabling moreeffective solutionsthat simply weren’tavailable in the past.Improving thecustomer experiencewith data analyticsUtilising innovativetechnology to focus oncustomer experiencewill be essential forinsurers to elevate theirplace in the market.Data and technology trends of the future (PwC view)Data privacyand protectionawarenessBusinesses must beagile, respondingto new regulationsas the focus andunderstanding arounddata protectionincreases.45Growing sharedeconomyThe rapidly growingand evolving sharedeconomy may providenew business-tobusiness interactionsbut challengesregulatory certainty.Data as an assetBusinesses retainhuge volumes of data,which could provideinvaluable insight fornot only businessdevelopment, butalso more substantialmovements towards AIimplementation. Dataand technology assetsare highly valuable andwill need to be(re)insured. N Department of Economic and Social Affairs. ublications/Updf/urbanization/WUP2011 Report.pdf National Intelligence Council. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends 2030.pdfThe Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future5

The RiskFunction in2030: our visionof the futureWith that backdrop, what does theCRO need to think about as theystart to plan for the future?No-one can predict the future,but we can make educatedassessments of how we willneed to adapt.6PwCThere are two ways we’ll look at this – but they are two sidesof the same coin: we’ll look at the areas that Risk functionwill need to develop need to be developed in order to keeppace with the changing world, but also look at how they canuse these same developments to enhance speed, insightand value.In 2019, trying to set an agenda for the world of 2030 isdaunting. No-one can predict the future, but we can makeeducated assessments as to how we will need to develop.It is clear that mega-trends and industry trends will notonly affect the way we do business but also how RiskManagement operates.Using a clear framework and some robust principles fordevelopment will mean that the CRO can be confident thatthey will develop a Risk Function in which the oversightand challenge of the business is more forward lookingand predictive, and they can ensure that their function isappropriately flexible to meet the ever changing demandsof the business.

In considering the best approach, we have identified fourkey building blocks for developing a successful functionover the coming decade: Technology – Technology will drive significantdevelopment in insurance businesses, transformingoperations, finances and customer engagement models.Risk will need to embrace technology in order to providechallenge and assurance to the business, enabling thefunction to provide real time and predictive risk analysis.Data and enhanced analytics – Access to morediverse, real-time and larger data sets will be critical.With better access to more varied sources of internaldata and the use of more macro sources of real-timedata, this will allow risk professionals to create a muchricher view of the risk profile and how it is likely tochange. Having data is great – but only if you can useit. We believe that this is the key challenge of moredata – how to use it and how we communicate theresults better to the wider business. The ability to runthousands of autonomous stresses and scenarios of thebusiness on a real-time basis will allow a greater number of decisions to be informed by a wide range of potentialoutcomes. This should allow management to takeactions – before risks materialise into issues.Skills and capabilities – The skills required by thebusiness are obviously going to shift, with greater needfor technology, data and analytical capabilities. We alsoexpect the risk function to be greater users of stargazers– finding a place for creative thinking and broad-rangingpredictive idea generation. Insurers will increasinglyuse a more flexible workforce, both in terms of physicalpresence and technical skill sets. The function will alsobecome bionic with AI driving the analytics.Cultural awareness – With all the changes within thebusiness, and in particular changes in technology andautomation, culture will be even more important toensure risk management is done right and continues toprotect the business. We foresee developments suchas real-time sensors and analysis embedded in first lineprocesses and controls. The successful Risk Function ofthe future will use the transformation of risk capability totruly embed risk culture throughout the business.The future Risk Function’s pillars of successPillars of successsuccess factorsKeyCulturalawarenessInvestmentin technologyTappinginto moredata sourcesSkills andcapabilitiesAgile riskprofessionalsVisionTo develop aRisk functionwhich is able tobe forward lookingand which canadd real valueto the businessSystem rningAssessing culturalimpact on risksData andenhancedanalyticsThe Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future7

Pillar 1 –TechnologyTechnology will facilitate the‘truly digital’ insurance company.Technological change isnot additive; it is ecological.A new technology doesnot merely add something,it changes everything.Neil Postman, American Author8PwCTransactions, hand-offs and interactions will happenseamlessly between customers, brokers, underwriters,insurers, reinsurers and claims providers. The conceptof multiple systems and platforms will disappear beingreplaced with seamless workflow integration (as ishappening in many areas of consumer technology, e.g. theway we all have access to many television content providersthrough one seamless platform app). This technologyintegration on a mass scale across the commercial businessworld will reduce the friction between businesses, but moreimportantly, increase the competition for consumer and B2Bbusiness. Removing this friction will focus the emphasis onvalue-add services, and therefore increase the risk profilerelated to delivering those diversified services.

Risks will dramatically change because of the4th industrial revolutionManaging risk and the speed of thought .Or fasterDecision-making and transactions while we are asleep.As we write this, over 85% of the world’s trades thatare made on the global stock markets are made usingunsupervised algorithmic processing – put another way,unsupervised decision making. It’s here! The technologyneeded to close the gaps in a complex world of internationalborders, political divisions, cloud vs on-premise, SAP vsOracle, Apple vs Microsoft, to make automated decisionsand perform transactions in the blink of an eye, is facilitatingthe vast majority of the world’s financial system.Keeping up or looking through the windscreen?If insurance businesses are using technology to supporttheir customer bases, improve margin and become morecompetitive, Risk Functions need to be alongside, ensuringthat companies operate within the tolerances set by theBoard, or else become irrelevant.Insurance has been experimenting with technologies suchas blockchain, which will facilitate more ‘unsupervised’transactions and decisions. Technology, coupled withdata and data analytics, is dramatically changing the waybusiness operates. Outside of the obvious reliance ontechnology and technology resilience risk that we often talkabout today, these shifts introduce a new set of risks to acompany. For example: How does a firm attest to its compliance if transactionsand interactions are based on deeply integratedsystems with machine learning and artificial intelligencecontinually changing the way it makes decisions in a‘black box’.In a frictionless technology environment, with increasedpressure on services, how does risk manage thebalance between commercial pressures and effectiverisk management?Removing the technology silos creates both a hugereliance on third party technology providers and blursthe lines between what is yours and what belongs to the‘collective cloud’ (e.g. who ‘owns’ the block chain?).As the focus to value-add services shifts and newentrants come into the market, how does Risk Functionbalance its regulatory obligations with the social andreputational risk of collaborating with new entrants tonew markets and customer channels(e.g. ‘Uber Insurance’)?As technology advances within the business, the RiskFunction will need to keep pace, both in terms of itsunderstanding, but also in the way that technology isused to assess, monitor, evaluate and report on thebusiness. Risk Functions will need to ensure that astechnology is developed and embedded, there are clearchecks, controls and reporting available, rather thanbeing developed separately. Sticking with the car analogy,the co-driver doesn’t need to have their own dashboard,so long as they can see the same one as the driver.Most of the technology that is needed to enhance the RiskFunction already exists. The important question for theCRO is how much it costs to acquire and then embed withinthe business.Technology to monitor risk appetites and tolerances acrossa wide-range of measures should become commonplace.Movements against appetite, including ‘notificationtype’ messages through control and ”governance”processes will create huge efficiencies. The ability tospecifically track exposures on such an accurate andtimely basis could also be highly beneficial in the designof reinsurance products and their pricing.In the following sections of this document we talk aboutthe use of more diverse data sets and predictive analyticsto build future-state risk scenarios. However, having thetechnology integration layer to facilitate this volume of data,and host the machine learning and AI capability neededmay well be a future insurer’s intellectual capital andcompetitive advantage.The Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future9

Pillar 2 – Dataand enhancedanalyticsAs with technology, data will quicklyconverge across a number ofsources to create a rich and diversefoundation for driving insights.Today insurers are grappling with the completeness,accuracy and attainability of data, which often existsacross a number of aging and legacy platforms. Bringingdata together to create an end to end view is often timeconsuming, rendering its use somewhat retrospective.Underwriters and actuaries are seeking better ways touse more diverse data from different sources, includinggeometric data, data derived from satellite imageryand drones.Perhaps more transformational though is the opportunityto use more diverse data sets providing the insurancecompany with real-time insights. Using the internet of thingsdata, home automation data, social media data and healthdata will allow insurers to proactively tailor products andpricing to the individual. It also expands the possibility ofproviding assurance related services where data might beused to avoid a loss before it happens.With data being the lifebloodof business and the futureRisk Function and technologybeing the underpinning enabler,analytics becomes the ‘how’.10PwCThese developments in the sector drive a very different riskprofile for a company. Richer data and better connectedtechnology also increases the speed with which risks canmaterialise. For example, introducing the capability tomake near or real-time mid-term adjustments (for examplea customer adding coverage to their policy for just one daythrough an app), makes the risk exposure a very flexible realtime moving challenge for a Risk Function.

Being plugged into the data and the systems the businessare using will be the only way for risk monitoring to beeffective. Risk will also need to understand how it canperform a preventative role, predicting what may triggermaterialisation of a risk before it does – going beyond usingonly the firm’s internal data to undertake this. Augmentinginternal data with external environmental and social data(as examples) will be critical for future facing decisionmaking for the Risk Function.With data being the lifeblood of business and the futureRisk Function and technology being the underpinningenablers, analytics becomes the ‘how’. Dashboardsand visualisation are being employed as alternatives tolengthy and wordy reports. However, often the coverageof this type of reporting relates to only a small number ofrisks, and lacks the context required to make data drivenrisk decisions. The industry still has a long way to go toharness the full power of analytics and visualisation inhelping boards and risk managers cut through the noise tounderstand the ‘so what’ and the narrative good analyticsprovides – this is before analytics can help facilitatepredictive scenarios that have not yet been realised.2. One embedded view of risk across the organisationOne version of the truth will be available acrossall business segments (underwriting / productdevelopment, claims, reinsurance, marketing, risk andfinance) allowing all parties to access a consistentview of risk in any segment. Interactive MI will alloweach team to drill down on issues of relevance to them– whether that is customer behaviour, managementof aggregations, concentrations of risk, or deviationfrom technical price, etc. This will enable the businessto fully incorporate risk, as well as volume/profitabilitythroughout its decision making3. Aligned to business strategy, ratherthan complianceRisk will use enhanced analytics to analyse whetherthe business is operating within risk appetite,together with looking at an increased rangeopportunities. As compliance activities performedby Risk become increasingly automated, the informationgathered through analytics will help the business tounderstand the impacts of difference scenarios allowingbetter informed strategic decision making.Below we have detailed three key areas of focus whenembracing analytics in the Risk Function:1. Quality and speed of insight (real-time, predictiveand holistic intelligence)Analytics will be automated, with predictive insightsthat are continually learning and evolving (driven byAI) to identify emerging issues and trends. This will beachieved by leveraging enhanced data about customersand exposures (e.g. satellite and drone imaging)and supplementing it with a wider range of globalintelligence sources.As a result, for any portfolio, product or segment,Risk Functions’ will be able to access exposures,critically assess risk forecasts as they evolve in anylocation and make near real-time decisions on whetherto increase/reduce the risk footprint, adjust rates orhedge exposures.Impact of analytics on the Risk FunctionThe adoption of analytics in the Risk Function willdrive a change to daily activities and the skillsetsneeded to understand, operate and enhance analyticsand the role it plays for the function.Analytics will provide a forward facing view ofemerging risks, resulting in members of the Riskteam being able to review these potential risks andunderstand and navigate the drivers and context thedata and visualisation is proving.The Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future11

TotalHealth – a case studyof a fictional health insurerin 2030At TotalHealth, our corporatestrategy has been to bringtogether a comprehensivepackage of medical, healthand well-being servicescentred on our customers.We’re now the leading health provider in the UK, helping ourcustomers to proactively manage their wellbeing, includingthe assessment, monitoring and treatment of illness asit occurs: Smart chips and pills – Smart chips and on-demandpills containing sensors and nanorobots that monitora person’s health and provide access to care andtreatment, for example via (i) lifestyle interventions(ii) monitored releases of drugs tailored to policyholders’physiology and genetics and (ii) nano surgery e.g. torepair tears in musclesAugmented reality health services – providingpolicyholders with direct access to a consultant / doctorwithin their home. For example, this could also aid inrehabilitation allowing policyholders to ensure that theirstretches and movements are correctly aligned withouta physiotherapist present all the time.Smart mirrors that also provide internal scans ofthe body which can used by consultant / doctor toassess health.This technology also provides policyholders withaugmented reality views on how their body’s healthcould change given dietary and other lifestyle changesrecommended by the insurer’s health team.12PwCAt TotalHealth, we’ve seen our risk profile changesignificantly since back in the early 2000s. We havehad to transform the way we manage risk as a result.Morbidity used to be a key risk driver. In its place, we havea significant risk around the third party technologythat is fundamental to our customer experience, highlymaterial reputational risk of very sensitive data beingleaked to employers or to third party organisations andsignificant additional complexity in conduct risk and thetreatment of customers. Additionally, multiple regulatorsacross health and insurance are more demanding of ourtreatment of data, confidentiality and our service to ourolder and vulnerable customers. For example, last year abug in their smart pills erroneously notified a subset of theircustomers of their DNA prognosis for future developmentof terminal conditions.Our suite of analytics monitor what happens today, as wellas predicting what might happen in the short to mediumterm future, enabling our business to make decisions aheadof risks materialising.

At TotalHealth, we’ve seen ourrisk profile change significantlysince back in the early 2000s.We have had to transform theway we manage risk as a result.The Future of Risk – The insurance Risk Function of the future13

Pillar 3 –Skills andcapabilitiesEqually as important as thedevelopments in technologyand analytics will be thedevelopments in the peopleand ways of workingwithin the Risk Function.6As the CRO looks forward tothe future of the Risk Functionand in particular looking at howAugmented Intelligence is at theheart of the change, it is clearthat the skills and capabilitiesthat are needed to successfullyrun the Risk Function will bedifferent from those today.6In 2017, PwC published a detailed report titled “Workfor

The future of humans at work is questioned. The Future of Risk - The insurance Risk Function of the future 3 This diagram was initially produced in the 1Workforce of the future paper to demonstrate how digital and artificial intelligence may change the world of work.

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