Texas Demographic Trends And Projections And The 2020 Census

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Texas Demographic Trends and Projectionsand the 2020 CensusPresented toMexican American Legislative Leadership FoundationMoreno/Rangel Fellows and Luna ScholarsJanuary 29, 2021

Texas isexperiencingsignificant andsubstantialgrowth.

Texas makes up 8.9% of the total U.S. population but 32.4% of thetotal growth between 2019 and 2020.U.S. Estimated Population 2020:329,484,123Texas Estimated Population 2020:29,360,759Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Vintage population estimatesNote: These data are not from the 2020 Census, rather estimates based on the 2010 Census3

Cartogram of Texas County Populationsin 201010,000 or less10,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 1,000,0001,000,001 - 6,000,000 plusPopulation andpopulation growthin Texas are notevenlygeographicallydistributed.

Approximately 86% of the total Texas population is located incounties along and to the east of I-35.Dallam Sherman Ochiltree LipscombHansfordHutchinsonRoberts HemphillHartley MooreOldham PotterCarsonGray WheelerDeaf Smith RandallDonley CollingsworthArmstrongParmer CastroBriscoe Hall ChildressSwisherHardemanWilbargerBailey Lamb Hale FloydCottleWichitaFoardMotleyClay Montague GraysonLamar Red RiverCookeFanninCochran HockleyCrosbyKing Knox Baylor ArcherBowieDeltaLubbockDickensDentonTitus MorrisCollin Hunt HopkinsYoakum Terry Lynn Garza KentCassYoung Jack WiseHaskellThrockmortonStonewallRockwall Rains FranklinMarionWoodUpshurDallasParkerGainesBorden Scurry Fisher JonesStephensHarrisonDawsonShackelford Palo Pinto Tarrant Kaufman Van ZandtSmith GreggHood Johnson EllisAndrews MartinEastlandMitchell Nolan TaylorHendersonErath SomervellRusk PanolaCallahanHowardNavarroCherokeeComanche Bosque HillShelbyEl PasoLoving Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke RunnelsAndersonBrownColemanFreestoneNacogdoches San AugustineHamiltonGlasscockMcLennan LimestoneHudspeth CulbersonWardMillsSabineReaganTom GreenCoryellCrane UptonLeon Houston loch San SabaRobertson MadisonBellNewtonTyler JasperSchleicher MenardMilam Brazos Walker PolkPecosBurnetCrockettJeff DavisMason LlanoSan JacintoWilliamsonGrimesBurlesonSutton rtyTerrellBlancoBastropWallerPresidioJeffersonKerr Kendall bersBrewsterReal BanderaComalGuadalupe Colorado Fort BendGalvestonGonzales LavacaBexarWhartonKinney Uvalde MedinaBrazoriaWilson DeWittJacksonZavala Frio Atascosa KarnesVictoria MatagordaMaverickGoliadMcMullenCalhounDimmit La Salle Live Oak BeeRefugioSan Patricio AransasJim WellsWebbNuecesDuvalTotal Estimated Population byCounty, 2019169 - 10,00010,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,0005000,001 - 2,000,0002,000,001 - 4,713,325KlebergJim HoggBrooksZapataKenedyStarrHidalgoSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population EstimatesWillacyCameron5

Of Texas’ 254 counties, 104 lost population between 2010 and2019.Dallam Sherman Ochiltree LipscombHansfordHutchinsonRoberts HemphillHartley MooreOldham PotterCarsonGray WheelerDeaf Smith RandallDonley CollingsworthArmstrongParmer CastroBriscoe Hall ChildressSwisherHardemanWilbargerBailey Lamb Hale FloydCottleFoardWichitaMotleyClay Montague GraysonLamar Red RiverCookeFanninCochran HockleyCrosbyKing Knox Baylor ArcherBowieDeltaLubbockDickensDentonTitus MorrisCollin Hunt HopkinsYoakum Terry Lynn Garza KentCassYoung Jack WiseHaskellStonewallThrockmortonRockwall Rains FranklinWood Upshur MarionDallasParkerGainesBorden Scurry Fisher JonesStephensHarrisonDawsonShackelford Palo Pinto Tarrant Kaufman Van ZandtSmith GreggHood Johnson EllisAndrews MartinEastlandMitchell Nolan TaylorPanolaHendersonErath SomervellRuskCallahanHowardNavarroCherokeeComanche Bosque HillShelbyEl PasoLoving Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke RunnelsAndersonColeman BrownFreestoneNacogdoches San h CulbersonWardMillsSabineTom GreenReaganCoryellCrane UptonLeon Houston loch San SabaRobertsonBellNewtonMadisonTyler JasperSchleicher MenardMilam Brazos Walker PolkPecosBurnetCrockettJeff DavisMason LlanoSan JacintoWilliamsonGrimesBurlesonSutton rtyTerrellBlancoBastropWallerPresidioJeffersonKerr Kendall HaysEdwardsHarrisFayette AustinValVerdeCaldwellChambersBrewsterReal BanderaComalGuadalupe Colorado Fort BendGalvestonGonzales LavacaBexarWhartonKinney Uvalde MedinaBrazoriaWilson DeWittJacksonKarnesAtascosaMatagordaVictoriaZavala FrioMaverickGoliadMcMullenCalhounDimmit La Salle Live Oak BeeRefugioSan Patricio AransasJim WellsWebbNuecesDuvalEstimated Numeric Change by County,2010‐2019-3,663 - 01 - 5,0005,001 - 25,00025,001 - 100,000100,001 - 620,149KlebergJim urce: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates6

The suburban ring counties are among the fastest growing, evenfaster than the Texas population as a whole.Dallam ShermanOchiltree LipscombHansfordHutchinsonHartleyMooreRoberts HemphillOldhamPotter Carson Gray WheelerDeaf Smith RandallDonley CollingsworthArmstrongParmer CastroBriscoe Hall ChildressSwisherHardemanWilbargerBailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley CottleFoardWichitaCochran HockleyCrosby Dickens KingLubbockHudspethEstimated Percent Change by County,2010‐2019-33% - -5%-4% - 0%1% - 15%16% - 31%32% - 106%ClayGraysonLamar Red RiverMontague CookeFanninBowieDelta FranklinTitusMorris CassCampRockwall RainsWood Upshur MarionParker Tarrant DallasGaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher JonesStephensPaloPintoKaufmanVanZandtGregg HarrisonShackelfordSmithHood JohnsonEastlandEllisAndrews MartinRusk PanolaMitchell Nolan Taylor asscockComancheShelbyCherokeeBosqueLoving Winkler Ector MidlandCokeAndersonSterlingRunnels Coleman BrownFreestoneNacogdochesHamiltonMcLennan LimestoneWardSan Augustine SabineCulbersonMillsCraneCoryellTom GreenUpton ReaganAngelinaLeon och San SabaRobertson MadisonBellBurnetPolk Tyler Jasper NewtonSchleicher MenardMilamWalkerPecosJeff DavisBrazosCrockettMason LlanoWilliamsonGrimes San ie Blanco TravisLee oHaysKerrJeffersonEdwardsAustinHarrisKendallVal VerdeCaldwell dalupeFort BendGalvestonGonzales LavacaBexarKinney Uvalde rio Atascosa KarnesZavalaVictoriaMaverickGoliadYoakum TerryEl PasoKnox Baylor ArcherLynn GarzaKentYoung JackHaskellStonewallThrockmortonDimmitWise Denton Collin Hunt HopkinsMcMullenLive Oak BeeLa SalleWebbRefugioKlebergJim HoggBrooksZapataKenedyStarrWillacyHidalgoSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population EstimatesCalhounSan Patricio AransasJim WellsNuecesDuvalCameron7

What is drivingpopulation growthin Texas?

Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1,2019.About 1,006 people per day added to our population. About 483 persons per day from natural increase(more births than deaths)About 523 per day from net migration (178international and 345 domestic migrants perday).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population on34%NaturalIncrease48%9

Migration and natural increase contribute about equally to population growthin Texas.Components of Population Change, atural IncreaseInternational MigrationSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimatesDomestic Net Migration10

Texas among the highest in-migration flows states, CA biggest netsending state.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2019; for infographic: exasNetMigration11

As Texas grows, itages andcontinues todiversify.

Race/Ethnicity Composition, Texas, 2010-2019Race/EthnicityHispanic,38%NH Other,2%NH Asian,4%NH White,45%NHBlack,12%2010NH Asian5%NH Other2%NH imateNH White11,950,774Hispanic11,525,578NH Black3,501,610NH Asian1,457,549NH Two or More Races425,866NH American Indian & Alaska Native94,168NH Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander25,861

Population Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-201960.0%2,500,00053.6%2,000,000Nearly 87% of growth has been from non‐Whitepopulation 3%164,795HispanicNH BlackNH WhiteNH AsianNH OtherShare of Contribution to Total Population Change, 2010‐2019Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates10.0%0.0%Numeric Change, 2010‐2019

What’s ahead forthe population ofTexas?

Projected Population, Texas, 2010-2030403836Millions34Zero Migration0.5 Migration34.91.0 Migration2010‐2015 Migration3229.730282625.1242220Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections17

Linear Forecast of Census Bureau Population Estimates 2010-2020and TDC Population ProjectionsTexas House District Ideal Size 195,738 to 197,851Texas Senate District Idea Size 947,121 to 957,345U.S. House Seat District Size (39 seats) 753,840 to 01320142015CB Estimates, linear projections20162017201820192020TDC ProjectionsSource: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections; Census Bureau 2020 Population Estimates18

MillionsPopulation Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, .90.52010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030NH WhiteNH BlackHispanicSource: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Vintage Population Projections, 2010‐2015 Migration ScenarioNH AsianNH Other19

Implications ofpopulation growthand demographicshifts on Texassocio-economicindicators

Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019Median Household Income (Adjusted Dollars) 100,000 91,706 90,000 80,000 74,974 78,905 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 70,079 52,010Asian 47,428NH WhiteHispanicBlack 43,482 41,786 30,000 20,000 10,000 0201020112012201320142015201620172018201921Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates

Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Big Four Metros &Texas, 2019Median incomes are higher in the DFW metro than in 120,000Texas overall. However, disparities by race/ethnicityare still evident, especially for Hispanics and Blacks.Median Household Income 100,000 91,706 78,905 80,000 64,034 60,000 52,010 47,428 40,000 20,000 0TotalNH WhiteAustinSource: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year EstimatesDallasHispanicHoustonSan AntonioBlackTexasAsian22

Communities Most Impacted by COVID-1923

Texas’s Most Vulnerable Populations Income disparities place African Americansand Latinos at greater risk during times ofincome loss. Renters, renters w/low incomes, Blacks, andhouseholds w/children face greater risk ofeviction. Persistently low health insurance coverage inthe state increases vulnerability of Texans withemployer based insurance.24Source: Texas Demographic Center, ons/2020/20200918 ACS2019Brief TexasMostVulnerablePopulations.pdf

U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) The ACS is the premier source for detailed population and housinginformation. Ongoing survey, conducted every month, every year Data are released in 1-year and 5-year periods Geographies available for 1-year estimates include: nation, state, andgeographies with populations of 65,000 or more Geographies available for 5-year estimates include: nation, state, county,MSA, place, congressional districts, school districts, census tracts, blockgroups, zip code tabulation area Includes variables on demographics, education, income and earnings,health insurance, citizenship, language, housing characteristics and manymore. Fun fact: The ACS replaced the long form of the Census after 2000.25Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, t/information‐guide.html

What is the Census? Every ten years, the country conducts a census to count every person in theUnited States. April 1, 2020 is the official Census date. Census counts used to reapportion the U.S. House of Representatives anddetermine the number of electoral college votes a state gets. Census counts used by state and local officials to redraw congressional,legislative, and local boundaries to account for population shifts. Businesses rely on Census data for market research, locations, and economicdevelopment. Census derived data are used to allocate over 1.5 trillion in federal funds tosupport healthcare, education, transportation, or other service programs.* Census data form the foundation for nearly all demographic and socioeconomic statistics, including population estimates & projections, for the next10 years.27*Source: Reamer, Andrew; George Washington Institute of Public Policy, Counting for Dollars

Texas Hard to Count PopulationsAn estimated 7 million, or nearly25% of Texans live in HTC areas. People of colorChildren under 5 yearsPopulations in/near povertySingle-parent householdsImmigrants & those with limitedEnglish proficiencyComplex households: renters,multi-family, mixed status, multigeneration, larger households28Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center. https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us

U.S. Response Rates to the 2020 CensusTotal Response Rate Self-Response Rate NRFU Enumerated Rate29Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center. https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us

U.S. Response Rates to the 2020 Census 99.98% of all housing units and addresses nationwide wereenumerated. 2020 Self-Response Rate of 67.0% surpassed 2010 Self-ResponseRate of 66.5%. 32.9% housing units enumerated through Non-Response FollowUp (NRFU). 24.1% of NRFU workload enumerated through proxy (landlord,neighbor, etc.). 5.6% of address nationwide (13.9% of NRFU workload) resolvedusing administrative records

2020 Census Total Response in TexasTotal Response Rate Self-Response Rate NRFU Enumerated RateTexas Response Rate:99.9% 62.8% 37.1%31

Not all rates are created equal.Self response rates, total response rates, enumeration rate, NRFUcompletion ratesWhat we do know: Texas self-response rate lower than 2010 rate: 62.0% vs. 64.4% Self-response rates vary across the state Enumeration does not mean count Self-response yields the most accurate census data

2020 Census Response Across TexasSelf-Response Rates amongTexas Counties ranged from75.8% in Fort Bend County to18.6% in Edwards County.29/254 (11%) Counties met orsurpassed their 2010 SRR.283/1221 (23%) Places/Citiesmet or surpassed their 2010SRR.33

TDC Analysis of Census Tracts with Self-Response Rates below 50%as of 10/28/20 Texas has 1,263 of 6,774 census tracts with self-response rates below 50% These lower responding CTs are distributed across the state, in 231 of 254counties. 47.7% of these CTs have majority ( 50%) Hispanic populations. 5.3% of these CTs have majority ( 50%) African American populations. 53% of these CTs are either majority Hispanic or Black.34

Texas Demographic Center Data and Data Products TDC 2020 Census Resources Map and dashboard Static maps Redistricting resources35

36

37

Census Bureau Data Quality Measures Census Coverage Measures: provide undercount by demographic groups,geography, and method Post-Enumeration Survey: interview a small sample of HHs who to checkaccuracy of data collected on 2020 census forms (November 2021-February2022) Demographic Analysis: produce population estimates using vital statistics,estimates of international migration and administrative records (December2020) Along with apportionment data, Census Bureau will provide data qualitymetrics for nation and states: self-response, non-response follow-up(including household interviews, proxy interviews, and administrative records)(by April 30, 2021) For more info: 0/2020census-metrics-data-quality-measures.html ensus/about/coverage-measurement.html (2010 Census)38

Important Dates: Apportionment File sent to POTUS 12/31/2020 April 30, 2021 Redistricting Data File (Public Law 94-171 File) received by Governors No laterthan 4/1/2021 July 31, 2021 PL 94-171 released to states in groups of 8 states per week, with one week prior notice PL 94-171 File to include: Race, Ethnicity, 18 plus, Occupancy Status, Group Quarters by Type Data available at WWW.CENSUS.GOV/RDO No schedule yet on other 2020 Census data products, but expectedthroughout 202239

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.(512) .gov@TexasDemography40

Income disparities place African Americans and Latinos at greater risk during times of income loss. Renters, renters w/low incomes, Blacks, and households w/children face greater risk of eviction. Persistently low health insurance coverage in the state increases vulnerability of Texans with employer based insurance.

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