SRP Integrated System Plan Technical Working Session: Study Plan Details

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SRP Integrated System PlanTechnical Working Session:Study Plan DetailsApril 29, 2022 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Meeting Objectives: Provide an overview of the Integrated System Plan's modelingecosystem Discuss the analytical methods and data sources for Forecasting,Distribution, Transmission, Resource Planning and Customer Programs Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #12

AgendaTimeTopicsPresenterLakshmi Alagappan (E3)Joe Hooker (E3)Harry Sauthoff (SRP)Nathan Morey (SRP)10:15 – 10:3015 minsOverview of Modeling Ecosystem and Study Plan10:30 – 11:0030 minsLoad Forecasting (Includes Customer Programs)11:00 – 11:2525 minsResource Planning ModelsMichael Reynolds (SRP)11:25 – 11:4015 minsDistribution Planning MethodsMelissa Martinez (SRP)11:40 – 11:5515 minsTransmission Planning Methods11:55 – 12:005 minsRecap and Next Steps Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1Justin Lee (SRP)Lakshmi Alagappan (E3)3

Overview ofModelingEcosystemLakshmi Alagappan & Joe HookerISP Consultants (E3)

The Integrated Planning Process at SRP Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #15

The Integrated Planning Process at SRP Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #16

Integrated System Planning: A Holistic System-wide ApproachFocus Area7 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Integrated Resource PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processCCustomer ProgramsLLoad ForecastingPlanning processCustomerProgram DesignSystem Level LoadForecastCRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringFFinancial ServicesSummary RNew yMetricsExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastRResource DetailedOperationsRReliabilityMetricsFRCR8 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Developing a Foundation in the FirstIntegrated System PlanIntegrated SystemPlan #1FoundationQuantify system-wideoutputs and metricsthat can help assessthe tradeoffs ofdifferent system plansCapture theinterdependenciesof differentcomponents of thesystem plan Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1Harmonize the inputs,assumptions, andmodeling horizonacross planninggroupsAssess a commonset of scenariosand strategicapproachesacross planninggroupsDevelop a systemplan that considerscustomer programs,distribution,transmission, andresource decisions9

Integrated System PlanResource PlanningCustomerProgram DesignInput and assumptionsdevelopment processCCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCSystem Level MetricsSustainabilityMetricsNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastR Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1ReliabilityMetricsResourceInvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRFRCR10

Integrated System PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processDistribution PlanningCustomerProgram DesignSystem Level LoadForecastReliabilityRequirementsCCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCDistribution LevelLoad ricsFRDNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastR Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session nvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRRCR11

Integrated System PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processTransmission PlanningCustomerProgram DesignCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCSystem Level LoadForecastReliabilityRequirementsCDistribution LevelLoad ricsFRTDNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastRTransmission Costfor New ResourcesT Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session nvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRRCTR12

Integrated System PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processTransmission PlanningCustomerProgram DesignCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCSystem Level LoadForecastReliabilityRequirementsCDistribution LevelLoad ricsFRTDTransmission LevelLoad ForecastNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastRTransmission Costfor New ResourcesT Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session TReliabilityMetricsResourceInvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRR13

Integrated System PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processAvoided Costs & Program DesignCustomerProgram DesignCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCSystem Level LoadForecastReliabilityRequirementsCDistribution LevelLoad ricsFRTDTransmission LevelLoad ForecastNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastRTransmission Costfor New ResourcesT Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session TResourceInvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRReliabilityMetricsRAvoided CostsFCustomerProgram DesignC(To be completed after ISP)14

Integrated System PlanInput and assumptionsdevelopment processAvoided Costs & Program DesignCustomerProgram DesignCustomer ProgramsTTransmission PlanningPlanning processLLoad ForecastingRResource Planning,Resource Acquisition,and GenerationEngineeringSummary processDDistribution PlanningFFinancial ServicesCSystem Level LoadForecastReliabilityRequirementsCDistribution LevelLoad ricsFRTDTransmission LevelLoad ForecastNew ResourceOptionsRExisting ResourceCharacteristicsRRegional MarketPrice ForecastRTransmission Costfor New ResourcesT Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session TResourceInvestmentsRResource DetailedOperationsRReliabilityMetricsRAvoided CostsFCustomerProgram DesignC(To be completed after ISP)15

Regional PlanningSRP planning within a broader system Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #116

Western InterconnectionThe Western ElectricityCoordinating Council(WECC) promotes bulkpower system reliabilityand security in theWestern Interconnection17 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Load Forecasting Analysis(Includes CustomerPrograms)Harry SauthoffManager, Load Forecasting (SRP)Nathan MoreyManager, Product Development (SRP)

Forecasting Process OverviewInputsProcesses/modelingtoolsEconomic OutlookItron SAE Usage/MWh ModelsEnergy SalesEnd-Use Saturation andEfficiency TrendsEconometric Accounts ModelsCustomer AccountsMaturity Scoring & Load ModelLarge Customer bySubstationEconometric Peak ModelAnnual Peak DemandEcon DevelopmentSRP EE/ElectrificationRooftop SolarElectric VehiclesOutputs8760 DemandLoad Shape SolverWeather19 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Forecast InputsConsensus Economic OutlookSource: UofA, ASU, Moody's, Woods & Poole (W&P), RLBrownSRP EE & ElectrificationSource: SRP Customer Programs, CADMUS, SRP LoadResearchRooftop Solar and Battery ForecastSource: EPRI, NREL, SRP Distribution Enablement,SRP Distributed Energy Programs, SRP Load ResearchEnd-Use Saturation and Efficiency Trends:Source: Itron partnering with the Energy InformationAdministrationWeather: Cooling Degree & Heating Degree Hours andPeak Demand Weather ConditionsSource: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), SRP Weather ExpertsElectric VehicleSource: EPRI, SRP Load ResearchEcon Development ForecastSource: Strategic Energy Managers, EconomicDevelopment, Itron 3rd party data center forecast, DominionEnergy, JLL, Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC),Historical Trends20 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Forecast Input: Customer Program PlanningEE & Electrification Planning Inputs:Corporate Commitments & Priorities: 2035 Goals & ActionPlans, spending targets, customer equity priorities, etc.Source: SRP 2035 Sustainability Goals, Corporate StrategyMeasure-Level Assumptions: unit impacts, savingspersistence, assigned load shape, etc.Source: Guidehouse, CADMUS, EPRI, SRP Load ResearchForecasting Outputs: M-Power & wired units forecastSource: SRP Load ForecastingHistoric ImpactsSource: Guidehouse, SRP Measurement & EvaluationEnd-Use Load ShapesSource: CADMUS, SRP Load ResearchProgram-Level Assumptions: rebate & admin costsSource: SRP Product Development, Measurement &EvaluationParticipation ForecastsSource: Resource Innovations, ICF, SRP ProductDevelopment, Forecasting21 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Forecast Input: Customer Program PlanningPlanning Process:Evaluate &Refine AssumptionsApply ProgramParticipation ForecastsNear-TermPortfolioPlanPlanning Outputs:Near-Term Portfolio Plan: 6-year Operational Plan Annual Program Participation & Marketing Targets Annual Incremental Energy & Peak Demand Impacts Annual Rebate & Admin Expenses Financial Planning InputsLong-Term System Impacts: Aggregate Impact Projections 30-year Load Forecasting Inputs Extend Forecasts &Apply Persistence 30-year Resource Planning Inputs Couple Plan Impacts w/Historic ImpactsLong -TermSystemImpacts Annual Aggregate Energy Impacts from EE & ElectrificationAssociated End-Use Load Shape MixAnnual Demand Response Capacity Projections15-year Financial Planning Inputs Annual O&M Cost Projections22 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Processes/modeling toolsRes Use-per-Customer ForecastResidential Customer ForecastComm Energy Sales ForecastCommercial Customer ForecastMaturity Scoring ModelLarge, Res/Commercial Customer ForecastWeatherImpacts: Price Plans, EVs, RooftopSolar/BatteriesEnergy SalesLoad & Timing ForecastResidential andCommercial EnergySales and CustomersLarge CustomerEnergySales ForecastRegression ModelAnnual Peak DemandLoad Shape Solver8760 Demand23 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Forecast OutputsEnergy Sales: Monthly energy sales by Price Plan/CustomerClassUse: PricingCustomer Accounts: Monthly Customer Accounts by PricePlan /Customer ClassUse: Pricing and Distribution PlanningLarge Customer Forecasts by Substation (LargeIndustrial)Use: Transmission Planning8760 Hourly Demand: demand for each hour of each yearof the forecastUse: Resource and Distribution Planning and PricingRooftop Solar and Customer-Owned Batteries: Forecastof adoption, MWh and MW AC capacityUse: Distribution PlanningElectric Vehicles (EV) Forecast: Adoption and MWhforecast for EVs in SRP territoryUse: Distribution PlanningPeak Demand: Highest Annual DemandUse: Resource, Transmission and Distribution PlanningForecasts are created for various scenarios & sensitivities in the Integrated System Plan to recognize uncertainty24 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Resource PlanningMethodsMichael ReynoldsManager, Resource Analysis & Planning (SRP)

Resource Planning: Power GenerationFocus Area26 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Resource Planning ChallengesReliability Load growth paired with coal retirementEvolving load profile – distributed solar, electrification, industrial loadsNew resources are intermittent or have limited energyRegional capacity needsExtreme weatherAffordability Unknown future costs for fuelRapidly changing costs for emerging technologiesVolatile regional electricity market pricesLong-life investments Need for reduced carbon emissionsWater considerationsLand useCommunity impactsSustainability27 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Integrated System Plan: Resource Planning ProcessInputsOutputsLoad ForecastHourly DispatchSolutionsRegional SimulationsCurrent ResourceCharacteristicsFuture ResourceCharacteristicsElectric & Fuel MarketPrice ForecastsModeling ConstraintsGeneration MixSRP SystemCapacity ExpansionSRP System DeterministicDispatch SimulationEmissions ProjectionsFuel ExpenseOperating Costs28 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Resource Analysis InputsRegional Loads and Resource DataSource: Energy Exemplar database (sourced from variouspublicly available data)Electric Price ForecastSource: SRP analysis, market quotesFuel CostsSource: SRP Fuels (existing contracts), Consulting Groups,Publicly Available Sources (EIA Annual Energy Outlook, etc.),market quotes, SRP analysisHourly Load ForecastSource: SRP Forecasting, contracted external salesPotential Resource Technologies & CostsSource: SRP Procurement Activities, SRP TransmissionPlanning, EPRI, Publicly Available Sources (EIA AnnualEnergy Outlook, NREL Annual Technology Baseline, etc.)SRP Resource & PPA Characteristics (heat rates,flexibility metrics, outage rates, cost elements, emissions,etc.)Source: SRP Generation Engineering, SRP contractsOther Modeling ConstraintsSource: SRP Board Policy, SRP Fuels (existing contracts),transmission limits for new resources (“renewable energyzones”)Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC)Source: SRP analysis29 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Process & MethodologyWECC Simulation Produces anElectric PriceForecastSRP Long-termCapacity Expansion Selectsresources toserve SRP’sfuture needsSRP DeterministicSystem Model Detailed hourlysystemsimulationRisk Modeling Evaluates systemreliability, ELCC Limited application fornew modeling in ISP30 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Process & Methodology: Zonal ConfigurationsWECC Modeling (electric price forecast)SRP 2-Zone Modeling (all else)Market(Electric PriceForecast)Exports: 12x24 hourlyconstraint Based on 12months of SRP’sactual exports( 2021) Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1Imports: Firm, ForwardPurchases EconomicPurchasesSRP(and committedsales)31

Resource Analysis OutputsElectric Price Forecast: hourly price to be appliedto SRP’s 2-zone modelsResource Selection: Resources identified as partof a future SRP resource portfolioResource system sustainability metrics Carbon emissions (mass and intensity) Water emissions (mass and intensity) Other metrics (e.g. air emissions)Hourly Resource Dispatch DetailResource system cost metrics Fuel expenses O&M expenses Capital costs for new resourcesReliability metrics Loss of Load Expectations/Loss of Load Hours All modeled portfolios will be designed for resourceadequacyThis may be a final check for strategic conclusions,but would not be simulated along the way32 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

DistributionPlanningMethodsMelissa MartinezManager, Distribution Planning (SRP)

Distribution System and PlanningFocus Area34 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Distribution Planning ProcessInputsOutputsLoad ForecastDistribution SystemModelNew Customer LoadInformationLoad AllocationHourly Load ShapesLoad Flow AnalysisForecasted Loadby SubstationDistribution SystemInfrastructure UpgradePlanDER InterconnectionsDER/EV Adoption35 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1*Key Distribution Planning Tool

Distribution Planning Analysis InputsAdvanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data: 15-minuteload data from each meterSource: Customer meter dataLoad forecast: forecasted peak load for each yearSource: Load ForecastCustomer Load Growth data: anticipated and known loadgrowth data for residential and commercial/industrialcustomersSource: Economic Development, System RequirementRequests, Initial Plan Review, Customer Construction &Design ContractsSupervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)data: 15-minute snapshots of load data from the feederand substation transformer, this includes MW and MVarsSource: Transducer or RelayDistribution Energy Resources (DER): Location and ACrating of all DERSource: Customer Interconnection RequestsDistribution System topology: geographic representationof SRP's distribution systemSource: Internal geographic information systems database36 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Process and Methodology Results of load flow analyses will be used to createsolutions to address capacity constrained areasInitialForecastProvidedForecastApplied toDistributionModelLoad FlowAnalysis perPlanningYear Recommendations for substation infrastructureupgrades will be provided to meet the futurecapacity requirementsForecastedLoad bySubstationDistributionSubstationPlansDeveloped37 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Process and Methodology – Load AllocationDevelop Local Area Forecast Annual Corporate Forecast allocated to locallevel Future Load Allocated via New Service Requests (1-3 years) Area growth trends Available vacant land Long-term special studiesApply Local Area Forecast to Base Case Normalized to corporate forecast38 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Process and Methodology – Load Flow AnalysisLoad Flow Analysis Load flow Distributed Energy Resources(DER) impact analysis Electric Vehicles (EV) impactanalysis Infrastructure upgradeplacement39 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Analysis OutputsForecasted Load by Substation: provides forecasteddistribution substation load information as an input toTransmission Planning process and used to decide where futuresubstation bays and substations should be builtDistribution infrastructure upgrade plan: providesrecommended infrastructure upgrades to serve projected loadneeds and capacity margin for unexpected loads40 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

TransmissionPlanningMethodsJustin LeeManager, Transmission Planning (SRP)

Transmission Planning: Generation to LoadFocus Area42 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Transmission Planning: The Western Interconnection43 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Transmission Planning Process OverviewInputsAnalysis(Single Snapshot in Time)OutputsGrid TopologyContingency ListEquipment Settings &CharacteristicsEquipment Ratings(normal & emergency)Forecasted Load(Levels and location)Steady State FlowsTransmission InvestmentVoltage at Each StationTransmission SolutionsGeneration Location &Dispatch44 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Transmission Investment: Analysis InputsGrid Topology: How the transmission system is connected.Sources: Internal - TSM databaseExternal – WECC base case, Neighboring UtilitiesContingency List: Defined list of outages to be studiedSource: Created per NERC TPL-001-4Equipment Settings & Characteristics: Technical informationand data used to model elements of the power systemSources: Internal - Cascade database, ASPEN Line database,generator and transformer test reportsExternal – WECC base case, Neighboring UtilitiesForecasted Load: Forecasted electric load for thetimeframe of the studySources: Load Forecasting, Distribution PlanningGeneration Location and Dispatch: Planned generationto be in-service for the timeframe of the studySource: Resource PlanningEquipment Ratings: Ratings of each element of the powersystemSources: Internal - Cascade database, ASPEN Line database,generator and transformer test reportsExternal – WECC base case, Neighboring Utilities Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #145

Transmission Investment ProcessInputsBase CasePerformAnalysisTransmissionProblems?NO SolutionsYESDevelopSolution Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #146

Perform Analysis - NBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 47

Perform Analysis - NBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 48

Perform Analysis - NBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 49

Perform Analysis - TATIONBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 50

Perform Analysis - TATIONBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 51

Perform Analysis - TATIONBMETROPHOENIX Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1SOLARSTATIONDTUCSON 52

Transmission Investment: Analysis OutputsSteady State Flow: How the power flows on alltransmission system elements either pre or postcontingencyHow it’s used : To determine if overloads exist on atransmission system element either pre or postcontingencyTransmission Solutions: Required upgrades to thepower system to fix overloads and voltage issuesHow it’s used: Costs of these upgrades included inoverall system plan costVoltage at each Station: The calculated voltage at eachstationHow it’s used : To determine if high or low voltageconditions exist either pre or post contingency53 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

Recap andNext StepsLakshmi AlagappanPartner (E3)

Next StepsLarge Stakeholder GroupTentative Schedule: Meeting #3: ISP Study Results – Fall / Winter 2022Meeting #4: ISP Path Forward – Spring 2023Stakeholder Communication Email:IntSysPlan@srpnet.comIntegrated System Plan: Informational lan.aspx55 Salt River Project, 2022. All rights reserved. Technical Working Session #1

thank you!

10:15 -10:30 15 mins Overview of Modeling Ecosystem and Study Plan Lakshmi Alagappan (E3) Joe Hooker (E3) 10:30 -11:00 30 mins Load Forecasting (Includes Customer Programs) Harry Sauthoff (SRP) Nathan Morey (SRP) 11:00 -11:25 25 mins Resource Planning Models Michael Reynolds (SRP)

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