CHINA'S AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET - Ipsos
CHINA’S AUTOMOTIVEAFTERMARKETNEW CONDITIONS PROVIDE FUEL FOR RAPID GROWTHNovember 2019Build · Compete · Grow
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIpsos Business ConsultingRISING CAR AGE BRINGS STEADILY GROWING AFTERMARKET VALUE IN CHINA As a consequence of new car sales con nuing to slow, the average age of passenger vehicles in China is projected to hit 5.5 years by2023, compared with 4.6 years in 2018 China automotive aftermarket is expected to grow steadily at 8% p.a. in next 5 years, reaching 1.93 trillion CNY in 2023 The propor on of repair & accident parts in the aftermarket is expected to grow gradually, owing to rising average car ageDIVERSIFIED, DIGITALISED, STANDARDISED MARKET STRUCTURE A diversified, digitalised and standardised a ermarket is being formed, owing to top-down government interven on and growing needs from endconsumers From an end-channel perspec ve, IAM (independent a ermarket) will overtake 4S stores within the next 5 years, with branded workshops / O2Oservice being a significant growth driver ( 35% CAGR from 2018-2023) High-level digitalisation and standardisation in a ermarket are on the way, with poten al to further op mise distribu on efficiency and enhanceservice quality O2O pla orms are being widely adopted by consumers, especially for consumable/ wearable parts B2B2C is an emerging business model, with the involvement of internet giants2consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
1. CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW2. DIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERS3. IMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)4. ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTINGBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingAFTERMARKET OVERVIEWChina’s new car sales are expected to further slow; with average car age rising,the after-sales auto business is transi oning into a major revenue sourcePV (passenger vehicle) sales volume (2018-23F)PV popula on and car age distribu on (2018-23F)Unit: million vehiclesUnit: billion vehiclesCAGR 6%23.6Average carageCAGR -1%4.4SedanSUVMPV46.10.1110.110.547%30%18% 5%2.11.82.4201520182023Fconsul ng.bc@ipsos.com0.199.711.6Source: Yiche; CAAM; CPCA; Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisNote: Due to rounding, percentages may not always appear to add up to 100%5.50.2622.619.811.74.6201549%26%20%6%201835% 3 years26%4-6 years30%7-10 years9% 10 years2023FBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingAFTERMARKET OVERVIEWChina’s after-sales market will grow steadily, with the repair and maintenancesegment reaching CNY 1 trillion by 2023; contribu on of repair & accident partsis expected to grow gradually owing to rising average car ageParts repair & maintenance market value breakdownby parts type, 2018Market value of China’s automo ve aftermarket (PV, 2018-23F)Unit: CNY trillion100% CNY 0.77 trillionOther a ermarket servicesParts repair &(e.g. 2nd-hand car, insurance & loan, maintenance servicesba ery recycling, car beau fica on)20180.520.772019FConsumable parts (e.g. lube and filter)Wearable parts (e.g. tire and storage ba ery)Repair parts (e.g. engine and generator components)1.29Accident parts (e.g. lights, door and bumper 93consul ng.bc@ipsos.com116%1.93Source: Tuhu X Tencent a ermarket whitepaper; Mob Research Ins tute; Ipsos Business Consul ng analysis34%Build · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingKEY TRENDS INTERPRETATIONA diversified, digitalised and standardised aftermarket is being formed, owing totop-down government interven on and growing needs from end consumersIAM to grab market share from OESPV parts repair & maintenance market value split by channelUnit: CNY trillion vehicles “Maintenance Management Regula on” wasimplemented in 2016 to en tle car owners takingmaintenance/ repair service freely in IAM within thewarranty period IAM business will grow along with rising average carage, given that lower prices drive consumerpreference for IAM when out of warranty6consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysis0.771.03CAGR43%23%17%35%3%4S store50%Branded workshop/ O2O5%Independent workshop45%40%20182023FBuild · Compete · Grow
KEY TRENDS INTERPRETATIONIpsos Business ConsultingA diversified, digitalised and standardised aftermarket is being formed, owing totop-down government interven on and growing needs from end consumersB2B & B2C e-commerce lead to digitalised andmore efficient IAMIncreasing transparency will improve marketstandardisa on In addi on to aftermarket specialists (Tuhu, Carzone),internet giants (e.g. Alibaba, JD) are also stepping into theauto aftermarket All the 4S stores/ workshops have been required to uploadtheir service records to a nationwide database since 2017,in an effort to reduce over-maintenance/ fraud (thisini a ve is s ll in a nascent stage) Workshops show strong demand for be er procurement/logis c services to survive Those born from 1980-1999 account for 50% of all a ermarket customers, and have a high preference for O2O*7consul ng.bc@ipsos.com All parts manufacturers have been required to print ‘productcodes’ on spare parts since 2015, enabling accountabilitytracing after accidents, and weakening the competitivenessof counterfeit partsNote: *O2O model refers to ‘placing orders online and taking repair/maintenance service in an appointed offline store’Source: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
KEY TRENDS INTERPRETATIONIpsos Business ConsultingParts suppliers should increase investment in IAM, and cooperate with / leveragediversified channel players to seize growth opportunitiesIAM IAM channels should be a strategic priority, and deserve more effort and investment from autosuppliers to seize opportunities and fulfill evolving consumer demandsRegula ons Regulation-enabled market standardisa onis s ll on the way. More interven on from governmentis expected to further protect consumer interests and create a fairer market environment for OE/will-fit parts suppliersB2B/B2C/O2O E-commerce The penetra on of B2B/B2C e-commerce platforms will accelerate Coopera on with B2B e-commerce platforms are a must-have,but such efforts should be prudentin order to avoid harming exis ng distributors’ interests Partnership with key B2C e-commerce/O2O players is impera ve to capitaliseon the trend8consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
1.2.3.4.CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEWDIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERSIMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTINGBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingROUTE TO MARKET STRUCTUREHigh-level aftermarket digitalisa on and standardisa on are on the way, withpoten al to further op mise distribu on efficiency and enhance service qualityEmerging flowRoute-to-market structure of automo ve partsRising a ermarket channelsAutomotive parts manufacturer1st er distributorFor nationalKA* onlyWholesaler/ ResellerIn-houseWS** offleetFor national KA only(mainly branded WSand O2O platform)1B2B e-commerce platform3B2C e-commerce 2(pure retail model)OEMBranded WS(tradi onal offline model)4WorkshopO2O app self-owned/franchised/ authorised WSIndependent WS4S storeConsumer10consul ng.bc@ipsos.comNote: *KA refers to key account with high purchasing volume**WS refers to workshopSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingSUMMARY OF RISING CHANNELSBoth B2B and B2C players are reshaping IAM dynamics, as they improve marketefficiency and customer experienceProduct/Service OfferingKey AdvantageB2B E-COMMERCEOperate platforms that purchasefrom parts manufacturer/distributor and sell to workshops Price transparency in B2B market Larger geographical coverage, with faster delivery thantradi onal distributors/wholesalers Customer analy cs driven by Big DataBRANDED WORKSHOP(TRADITIONALOFFLINE MODEL)Offer offline repair/maintenanceservice to consumers More standardised repair & maintenance service comparedwith tradi onal independent workshopsSell parts to consumers onlinewithout offline service Price transparency in B2C marketSell parts to consumers online andappoint specific workshops (selfowned or franchised or authorised)to offer offline service Price transparency in B2C market More standardised repair & maintenance service comparedwith tradi onal independent workshopsB2C E-COMMERCE(RETAILER)O2O PLATFORM11consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingB2B E-COMMERCEB2B e-commerce has built a strong market presence in recent years; Carzone andAutozi are key representa ves for asset-heavy and -light strategies respec velyIntroduc on of key types of B2B e-commerceBUSINESS MODELResellerMainly generates profit byprice mark-up on top ofpurchased priceMarketplaceMainly chargescommission, supply chainfinance, logistic servicefees on parts supplierswho operate a store onthe platform12consul ng.bc@ipsos.comTOP PLAYERS & GMV* IN 2018 (UNIT: CNY BILLIONS)Carzone0.9Tuhu0.8AutoziBaturuCass Started from consumable/ wearableparts to quickly build customer base Gradually raised the share of repair/accident parts for higher profit ang1.8CATEGORY FOCUS Wide coverage of both consumable/wearable parts and repair/ accidentparts due to asset-light strategy Less control on product qualitycompared with reseller modelNote: *GMV (gross merchandise value). The business model classification is based on the source of majority GMV of eachplayer. Some players utilise both reseller and marketplace modelsSource: Official website of B2B e-commerce pla orms; Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
B2B E-COMMERCEIpsos Business ConsultingB2B platforms can be a partner to reach more workshops, but the benefits oftradi onal distributors should be protected to avoid cannibalisa onStrengths compared with tradi onal distribu onmodelsOp mise parts distribu on efficiency throughadvanced database and intelligent enquiry/ order dispatchingsystemsCooperate with B2B pla orms to enlargesales coverage but at a prudent pace.Most brands hold a conserva ve a tudeon this prac ce, in case tradi onaldistributors interests are impactedOffer value-added services (e.g. big data analy cs, fasterEnsure an appropriate hierarchy pricingstructure in case distributor loses controlpower to B2B platforms, especiallyplatforms with reseller modelsEnlarge geography and category coverage of partsRetain accessibility of customer (i.e.workshop) data when coopera ng withB2B platforms, in prepara on for longterm growth strategydelivery, micro credit, technical and sales training) toworkshopsdistribution, combining own warehousing & shipping capacitywith third-party logis cs services13How should auto parts manufacturers leverage?consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
BRANDED WORKSHOPS (TRADITIONAL OFFLINE MODEL)Ipsos Business ConsultingIndependent branded workshops excel in traffic genera on while parts suppliers/OEM sub-brands provide superior technical capabilitySnapshot of different types of branded workshops using a tradi onal offline modelWORKSHOP TYPEIndependentbrandedREPRESENTATIVES 800*OUR VIEWHigh traffic volume but limited to consumable/wearable parts955230 200647* Number of outlets of self-owned &franchised stores Usually leverages own app with O2O services to bring online traffic tooffline, then generate profit on offline orders from repeat customers Hard to offer core services due to technical limita onsRelatively new model with a questionable future outlookOEM sub-brandSub-brand of partssuppliersSub-brand of dealergroups14consul ng.bc@ipsos.comInvested by 1,900 SAICMOTOR Investedby SAICGM 529300 108 1,500 7S ll in exploratory stagesIndependent procurement for spare partsU lises O2O service modelLeverages OEM reputa on and technical capability to win in IAMStronger technical capability and wider category coverages;weaker in traffic generation due to lack of ‘internet genes’ Bosch Car Service is expanding service coverage from quick service tocore parts (e.g. engine repair, brake inspec on) Dealer group sub-brand WS can leverage their own technical capabilityto offer the same level of repair service at a lower price than 4S storesSource: Official website of branded workshops; Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingO2O PLATFORM & B2C E-COMMERCE (RETAILER)Various O2O platforms and B2C e-commerce services have developed nichebusiness models for their offeringsB2C PLAYER TYPEO2O platformREPRESENTATIVESPROVIDER OF OFFLINEREPAIR/MAINTENANCE SERVICEREVENUE MODEL (FOR ONLINE ORDERSONLY)Generates profit by price mark-up andrepair/maintenance service chargeswith self-ownedworkshopSelf-owned store*O2O platformWorkshop franchised**/ authorised*** O2O pla orm generates profit by price mark-upby O2O pla orm but owned/ operatedfor self-owned products and charges commissionby third party (e.g. 天猫 站 authorised & ads fee for supplier-owned products Repair/ maintenance service charges belong toby Tmall, Tuhu’s franchised andworkshopauthorised workshop)cooperating withfranchised orauthorised workshoppure retailer modelwithout offline serviceNo appointed workshops Generates profit by price mark-up for selfowned products Charges commission and ads fee for supplierowned productsDoor-to-doorservice providerStaff from B2C pla orms offer D2DserviceCharges D2D service feeB2C e-commerce15Note: *Self-owned stores are 100% owned and operated by Tuhu with Tuhu’s store sign**Franchisedworkshops are supervised by Tuhu, using Tuhu’s procurement & service system, but owned and operated by franchiseesconsul ng.bc@ipsos.com***Authorised workshops are owned and operated by 3rd party without Tuhu store sign. They are cer fied by Tuhu to serve users placing online orders on Tuhu AppBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingO2O PLATFORM & B2C E-COMMERCE (RETAILER)O2O platforms coopera ng with franchised/authorised workshops are expected toincrease market presence due to scalability and convenient user experienceB2C PLAYER TYPESCALABILITY ON GEOGRAPHICCOVERAGEUSER EXPERIENCEQUALITY CONTROL ON PRODUCT/SERVICEO2O platformConsistent experience fromonline order placement tooffline repair/maintenanceHigh CapEx requirementsrestrict expansion speedOffers the best assurance on product andservice quality through its self-ownedmodelO2O platformConsistent experience fromonline order placement tooffline repair/maintenanceCan quickly expand a er audi ngworkshop qualifica ons Strict workshop audi ng mechanism to ensureservice quality Centralised procurement from manufacturer/distributor to control product qualityConsumers have to find offlinepure retailer modelworkshops by themselveswithout offline serviceOnly need to address warehousing andlogis cs for geographic expansionNo control on offline service at allDoor-to-doorservice providerHard to expand coverage due toshortage of labourReliant on sub-contractor in serviceofferingwith self-ownedworkshopcooperating withfranchised orauthorised workshopB2C e-commerce16Rather limited to simpleservices such as car washingconsul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisGreat performancePoor performanceBuild · Compete · Grow
FUTURE TRENDS OF AUTOMOTIVE E-COMMERCEIpsos Business ConsultingBoth B2B and B2C leading players are adop ng an asset-light strategy forexpansion and transforma on; B2B2C is evolving as a winning ecosystem withcomprehensive service for workshops1Asset-Light StrategyDue to limita ons on cash flow, human resources, andover-supply of workshop number in the aftermarket, selfoperating models (e.g. self-owned workshops of B2Cplatforms, reseller model of B2B platforms) face challenges2B2B2C EcosystemWith internet giants such as Alibaba and JD entering the aftermarket,a B2B2C one-stop business model that connects parts suppliers,workshops and consumers is emergingAlibaba’s ecosystem as illustration AutoZi transformed from reseller to marketplace modelin 2018 Carzone has not turned a profit with its reseller modelfor 10 years Tuhu is unlikely to meet its vision of opening 2,000 selfowned and franchised stores by 2020 (it had only 800by the end of 2018)17consul ng.bc@ipsos.comSource: Ipsos Business Consul ng analysisParts supply via B2BParts manufacturer/ distributorOffer cer fica on/ endorsementto third-party workshopBring online traffic tooffline via B2CConsumerWorkshopBuild · Compete · Grow
1.2.3.4.CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEWDIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERSIMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTINGBuild · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business ConsultingNext steps for auto parts suppliers in China’s after-sales marketplace Review current value proposi ons and prepare for emerging opportuni es brought byObjec vesnew trends (diversifica on, digitalisa on and standardisa on)and Challenges Iden fy the variety of challenges in the new era19consul ng.bc@ipsos.comChannels Diagnose current route-to-market structure and evaluate the necessity of a revamp tocatch up with market trends Ac vely cooperate with new channel partners (e.g. B2B and B2C e-commerce, O2Opla orms, branded workshops)Products &Services Iden fy the core needs of emerging end-channel/ consumers and tailor the offering bycustomer segment Explore the possibility of offering value-added service and bundle-sales Empower tradi onal channel partners to enhance their service quality and capabilitySource: Ipsos Business ConsultingBuild · Compete · Grow
1.2.3.4.CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEWDIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERSIMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTINGBuild · Compete · Grow
AUTHORSWijaya NgHead of Consul ng,Greater China21Kate GaoAssociate Consulting Director,ShanghaiNeil SunSenior os.comNeil.Sun@ipsos.com 86 21 2231 9598 86 21 2231 9627 86 21 2231 9644Build · Compete · Grow
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In addi on to aftermarket specialists (Tuhu, Carzone), internet giants (e.g. Alibaba, JD) are also stepping into the auto aftermarket Workshops show strong demand for be er procurement/ logis c services to survive Those born from 1980-1999 account for 50% of all a er-market customers, and have a high preference for O2O*
The total aftermarket has grown at a CAGR of 14% over 2013-2018. The vibrant automotive sector drives the growth of the automotive aftermarket in India and is estimated to grow at INR75,000 crore by fiscal year 2020. Automotive Aftermarket Drive Transmissi on and Steering, 21% Engine Compone nts, 18% Electricals, 18% Suspensio n and Braking, 15 .
Global Automotive Center of Excellence -2014 Ipsos Automotive 9 Automotive Center of Excellence As global automotive markets get more sophisticated, they require vehicle manufacturers to offer the most relevant market propositions to match consumer needs. There is greater value than ever before for a global research partner, who understands
Sep 11, 2017 · Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Race Poll Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics 9.11.2017 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted August 21 – September 5, 2017 on behalf of Thomson Reuters and the Uni
average age of cars will increase from 3 years to 4.5 years, the age when spending on aftermarket parts and services typically peaks. At the same time, the number of 'out of warranty' cars will almost triple during the same period, further driving demand for aftermarket products and services. Figure 1 China Automotive Sales by Type* (2002-12)
WEI Yi-min, China XU Ming-gang, China YANG Jian-chang, China ZHAO Chun-jiang, China ZHAO Ming, China Members Associate Executive Editor-in-Chief LU Wen-ru, China Michael T. Clegg, USA BAI You-lu, China BI Yang, China BIAN Xin-min, China CAI Hui-yi, China CAI Xue-peng, China CAI Zu-cong,
It is an exciting time to be part of the automotive aftermarket and AASA is honored and privileged to represent such innovative and in uential suppliers. AASA is committed to its mission of championing the aftermarket and the business interests of its supplier members. AASA, the voice of the aftermarket supplier community. Welcome to the 2019 .
automotive aftermarket industry is expected to grow 3.4% annually through 2016 to 263.8 billion, adding another 33 billion in economic impact. Growth is expected to be driven by a combination of short-term aftermarket needs (the average car age is 11.3 years, the oldest in decades) as well as long-term demand
black holes limited their own growth by unleashing torrents of energy that drove away the surrounding gas (S&T: April 2005, page 42). These waves of unrest also dictated the ebb and flow of starbirth in the host galax-ies. This feedback process forged a close link between massive black holes and their surrounding stars. This view of abrupt but dazzling mayhem in major galaxies represents a .
