Commodities: A Bumpy Ride - Credit-suisse

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Global CIO OfficeWeekly focus page 3Commodities: A bumpy rideInvestment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd. 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTCStaying the courseVolatility likely to stay elevated90Soichiro MatsumotoChief Investment Officer Japan807060The Omicron variant continues to dominate risk sentiment infinancial markets by inserting bouts of volatility. It is too earlyto fully assess the pathogenicity and lethality of this variantand hence, the scale and severity of government responsesto it. However, our base case for 2022 of above-trend economic growth with more elevated inflation than pre-COVIDlevels remains unchanged. This should continue to supportequities and the reflation theme in the medium term, favoringa cyclical tilt in portfolios.As for commodities, the current high volatility is denting thetactical risk-reward, in our view, but diversified commoditiesexposure still provides a hedge against unexpected inflation.50403020100Dec 16Jun 17Dec 17Jun 18Dec 18Jun 19CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Dec 19Jun 20Dec 20Jun 21Dec 21AverageLast data point: 09/12/2021. Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicatorsof current or future performance. Source: Bloomberg, CreditSuisse/IDCImportant Information: This report represents the views of the Investment Strategy Department of CS and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designedto promote the independence of investment research. It is not a product of the Credit Suisse Research Department even if it contains published research recommendations. CS haspolicies in place to manage conflicts of interest including policies relating to dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. These policies do not apply to the views ofInvestment Strategists contained in this report. Please find further important information at the end of this material.

JapanSwans and marketsNannette Hechler-Fayd'herbeChief Investment Officer – International Wealth ManagementThe Investment Committee met for its last scheduled sessionlast week. The outcome was no change in the overall investment strategy (we remain overweight equities and underweightgovernment bonds). Credit markets had opened up a transitory opportunity to lock in better returns as credit spreadsbriefly widened, but this window closed again as spreads hadpromptly narrowed by the time we met. So our discussionrevolved around the key risks heading into 2022 and how tomanage any strategy fallout related to them. Black swans arenotoriously difficult to spot (in real life as much as on financialmarkets). In the below, I summarize the lists of gray swans(events that are possible and known, potentially very significant, but not very likely) we discussed in the InvestmentCommittee, including market implications and investmentactions were such events to occur.OmicronWhile risk assets were initially unsettled by the emergenceof Omicron, they have recovered since. But Lorenzo Biasio,our healthcare specialist, deemed the market’s view thatOmicron is mild (and thus ‘no problem’) as a little too complacent. After all, a reduced proportion of hospitalizations/deathsmultiplied by a much higher case number (due to transmissibility) might still overwhelm healthcare systems. The fact thatwe are seeing mild courses of disease so far could also verywell be due to high immunity (mostly from infection) in theSouth African population rather than Omicron being muchmilder than previous COVID-19 variants. The first recentlyreported studies with real Omicron samples show lower vaccine efficacy against Omicron than the Delta variant but betterperformance in people who have already received boostershots. Moreover, widely used antibody cocktails (casirivimab/imdevimab) have been shown to lose all activity againstOmicron, suggesting that boosters with vaccines are the bestline of defense in the short term. Antibody-based therapieswould lose relevance if Omicron became dominant, while oralantivirals (the pills from Pfizer, Merck) should still work. Thejury is still out on vaccine efficacy vs. severe outcomes. Whatconclusion do we draw from all of this? Until governmentsgravitate toward mandatory vaccines and treating COVID asan endemic, i.e. living with the virus in open economies, riskassets are likely to go through repeated periods of volatility.Even so, we would still view such periods as opportunities toinvest in equities, for instance the way we presented in ourrecently published “Top investment ideas for 2022,” namelyIdea No. 3 – Inflation winners or Idea No. 4 – Endemic COVIDlogistics.More rapid monetary normalizationThe Federal Reserve’s drop of the word “transitory” to qualifycurrent inflation, its openness to a more rapid pace of taperingand, by implication, to earlier than intended interest rate increases have captured markets’ attention of late, but led toanother puzzling reaction on rates markets. While it is perfectlynormal to see yield curves flatten (i.e. the difference betweenlong-term and short-term yields narrow) when central banksapproach a monetary turning point, the unusual part of themost recent yield curve behavior was a simultaneous drop oflong-term yields. What the yield curve has therefore beenpointing to is the growth risks of such monetary policy as wellas, perhaps, the conviction that headline inflation will be muchlower 12 months from now if the Fed indeed follows through.This brings 2018 back into people’s minds and the damagingimpact of rising yields on practically everything except theUSD. Our conclusion? Mitigate risk by investing in floatingrate fixed income instruments to absorb the negative impactof more rapid monetary normalization (Idea No. 1 – Fixed tofloating rate structure in USD, GBP, CAD and Idea No. 7 –Senior loans of our “Top investment ideas for 2022”).Geopolitical disputesThe Russia/Ukraine dispute has been back on the world’sgeopolitical stage for weeks now. Should tensions escalate,short-term reactions would include a sharp increase in gasprices and a negative impact on risk assets as well as a rallyin safe-haven assets. We would consider the CHF and theJPY as natural hedges in such a risk scenario.Energy crisisAn energy crisis with soaring oil and gas prices is a gray swanin itself. It does not matter whether it occurs because ofgeopolitics or because of the energy sector dynamics(underinvestment and sharper drop in fossil energy supplythan demand). Oil prices above USD 100/barrel would createa shock to the global economy, as it remains gripped byCOVID-19, and would dent consumer confidence meaningfully as well as push central banks in an uncomfortable corner.The result would be a stagflationary environment. Energycommodities, stocks and currencies would be some of therare beneficiaries in such a scenario.(10/12/2021)Investment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC2

Weekly focusCommodities: A bumpy rideCommodities have had a bumpy few weeks, with benchmarks retreating from theirOctober highs. Renewed COVID-19 uncertainty has weighed, especially on oil, whilevolatility in gas/power markets stays abnormally high. Gold has failed to benefit, ascentral banks seem to be going ahead with plans to tighten monetary policy. The tacticalrisk-reward from a pure performance perspective stays muted, in our view, but commodities continue to provide a hedge against unexpected inflation.Stefan GraberHead of Commodity StrategyEnergy risk dominatesReserve releases, renewed mobility restrictions and OPEC’sdecision to continue hiking supply have sent oil prices sharplylower lately. However, the sell-off looks excessive if we assume Omicron threat can be tackled eventually. OPEC remains in the driving seat, as non-OPEC volumes have yet topick up more strongly (which we expect for H2 2022 andhence we still project softer balances and prices later on).Indeed, the group signaled it would be ready to take actionany time if conditions warrant. Uncertainty is high but we seeroom for a bounce in the coming months.Concerns over insufficient gas storage and winter powershortages have eased somewhat in the USA but remain acutein the European Union (EU) and Asia. Risk premia in gasprices are set to stay high for now, perhaps until winter ends.Earlier relief could happen if 1) winter temperatures turn outto be milder and/or 2) the EU approves the Nord Stream 2pipeline – both elements are hard to predict.Vulnerabilities in goldHigh inflation and improving US labor markets seem to movethe Federal Reserve toward earlier tightening despite virusuncertainty. While gold should stay supported in the near termamid very low US real yields and macro concerns, we thinkthe backdrop would turn less friendly (higher real yields, easing inflation, firm USD) as we progress in 2022. Holdingsome gold can be sensible (where portfolios have limited du-ration risk and lots of cyclicality) but we stick with our view toat least trim excess exposure into rebounds, sell upside optionality and look for downside protection. This is also consistent with what we observe in investor flows, as exchangetraded funds (ETFs) are being liquidated into strength anddips are no longer bought (following a massive build-up during2019 and 2020).Base metals remain murky near termIn base metals, we observe convoluting factors currently, withpower restraints affecting metals smelting but also downstream users of metals. At the same time, logistics are impaired and metal availability appears constrained in certainwarehouse locations. On the macro level, risks around theChinese property sector loom. Against this, the tactical riskreward of outright exposure does not look favorable to us.However, in case we were to see corrections in the weeksahead, these might be entry opportunities, as longer-termcases remain structurally bullish amid de-carbonization efforts.Inflation hedging considerationsDespite nervous risk markets, commodities still serve as ahedge against unexpected inflation, which remains a concernespecially for portfolios with a concentration in long-durationassets. Commodity baskets should also work in stagflationaryoutcomes (not our base case) since raw materials themselvesare currently a cause of inflation amid tight physical marketsand underinvestment. In this context, we would stress thatfully diversified baskets (including energy, metals and agriculture) show better results than individual exposure, and goldin particular, as gold only reacts to inflation with performancedependent on central bank action.(09/12/2021)Investment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC3

Special topicChina: Year-end RRR cut signalsgreater policy support in 2022The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) recently announced a reserve requirement ratio(RRR) cut of 50 bp for banks, following Premier Li Keqiang’s public statement mentioningthe possibility last Friday. In this article, we share our key reactions on this rate action.David WangHead of China EconomicsIrene FengEmerging Asia EconomistTiming wise, the RRR cut was earlier than what we anticipated, ahead of the premier Li Keqiang’s recent remark. Although we did assign a 30% probability to a cut before yearend, we assigned the remaining 70% to PBoC waiting until2022.This cut’s effect on annual growth for 2021 will likely benegligible, given that it will only be in effect for the final 16days of the year. Yet, the cut suggests that the authoritiesmight have an ambitious gross domestic product (GDP)growth target in mind for 2022.For 2022, we anticipate a 50 basis points (bp) RRR cut inH1. We also expect authorities to contain the contagion riskfrom the recent Evergrande default and ensure liquidity forreal estate developers that authorities deem to have viablebusiness models. We also anticipate targeted monetary policyefforts to enhance credit access for small- and medium-sizedenterprises (SMEs) throughout the year.(09/12/2021)Investment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC4

Targets & tactical viewsMarket data as of09/12/2021TargetsTactical ViewsEquitiesIndexYTD %3m12mAbsoluteRelativeMSCI AC World (DM & EM)190020.419352050 n.a.MSCI World (Developed Markets)1072423.41092011570 BenchmarkMSCI USA2072725.62110022350 NeutralS&P 500466724.347655000 NeutralMSCI EMU56021.1570605 NeutralMSCI Switzerland599321.361006460 NeutralMSCI UK1721518.71770018800 OutperformMSCI Japan292314.030103210 OutperformMSCI EM (Emerging Markets)MSCI Sectors (GICS)171275Index0.6YTD %1743003m18450012m AbsoluteNeutralRelativeMSCI World (Developed Markets)1072423.41092011570 BenchmarkMSCI World Energy36446.4377400 NeutralMSCI World Materials62317.6610650 OutperformMSCI World Industrials56620.0571605 NeutralMSCI World Consumer Disc.65422.8645684 NeutralMSCI World Consumer Staples50811.2505530 UnderperformMSCI World Healthcare55317.3555587 NeutralMSCI World Financials29130.6300320 OutperformMSCI World IT72631.4717759 NeutralMSCI World Com. Services24216.8258273 NeutralMSCI World Utilities3828.8398420 NeutralMSCI World Real EstateGovernment bonds1518Yield 10y27.3YTD bp15403m160012m AbsoluteUnderperformDurationUSD1.559.81.62.0 NeutralEUR-0.3125.6-0.150.1 Short DurationGBP0.7857.811.4 Short DurationCHFFixed income-0.27Index28.5YTD %-0.153m0.112m AbsoluteShort DurationRelativeBarclays Global Aggregate591-1.1593593 BenchmarkBarclays Global IG Corp303-0.9305308 NeutralBarclays Global HY Corp4413.3442449 NeutralJPM EMBI Global Diversified HC979-1.7982990 NeutralJPM GBI-EM Global Diversified LCCommodities220Index-5.2YTD %2213m22512m AbsoluteNeutralRelativeBloomberg Commodities20523.1214203 BenchmarkBCOM Precious metals453-9.1467408 NeutralBCOM Energy6344.96965 NeutralBCOM Industrial metals34622.2349346 NeutralGold1786-5.418501600 NeutralWTI OilFX Total Return Indices73Index50.3YTD %803m7012m AbsoluteNeutralRelativeUSD DXY TR Index1067.3106.7104.1 n.a.MSCI EM FX TR IndexFX Spot1733Spot0.7YTD %17513m178312m Absoluten.a.RelativeUSD/CHF0.923.90.950.94 n.a.USD/JPY113.6410.1117116 n.a.EUR/USD1.13-7.21.131.17 n.a.GBP/USD1.32-3.41.351.4 n.a.EUR/CHF1.04-3.51.071.1 n.a.AUD/USD0.72-6.80.720.76 n.a.USD/CAD1.27-0.51.221.18 n.a.Tactical views are for 3-6 months. Targets are indicative index levels, yields and total returns expected to be reached during the stated time horizon. Relative views are expressed asexpected performance relative to specified benchmark; for government bonds, it is the preferred position versus the duration of the 1-10y country index. Fixed income indices arehedged in USD. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. PERFORMANCE CAN BE AFFECTED BY COMMISSIONS, FEES OR OTHERCHARGES AS WELL AS EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS.Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse/IDCInvestment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC5

GlossaryRisk warningsEmerging marketsEmerging markets are located in countries that possess one or more of the followingcharacteristics: a certain degree of political instability, relatively unpredictable financialmarkets and economic growth patterns, a financial market that is still at the developmentstage or a weak economy. Emerging market investments usually result in higher risks asa result of political, economic, credit, exchange rate, market liquidity, legal, settlement,market, shareholder and creditor risks.Hedge fundsRegardless of structure, hedge funds are not limited to any particular investment disciplineor trading strategy, and seek to profit in all kinds of markets by using leverage, derivativeinstruments and speculative investment strategies that may increase the risk of investmentloss.Commodity investmentsCommodity transactions carry a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for manyprivate investors. The extent of loss due to market movements can be substantial or evenresult in a total loss.Real estateInvestors in real estate are exposed to liquidity, foreign currency and other risks, includingcyclical risk, rental and local market risk as well as environmental risk, and changes tothe legal situation.Currency risksInvestments in foreign currencies involve the additional risk that the foreign currency mightlose value against the investor’s reference currency.Equity riskEquities are subject to market forces and hence fluctuations in value, which are not entirely predictable.Market riskFinancial markets rise and fall based on economic conditions, inflationary pressures, worldnews and business-specific reports. While trends may be detected over time, it can bedifficult to predict the direction of the market and individual stocks. This variability putsstock investments at risk of losing value.High Yield bond riskHigh Yield Bonds are typically rated below investment grade or are unrated and as suchare often subject to a higher risk of issuer default.Perpetual BondriskPerpetual Bonds have no maturity date and therefore the Interest pay-out depends onthe viability of the issuer in the very long term.Subordinated BondriskIn case of liquidation of the issuer, investors can only get back the principal after othersenior creditors are paid.Risk ofBonds with variable/ deferral Investors would face uncertainty over the amount and time of the interest payments toof interest termsbe received.Callable bondriskInvestors face reinvestment risk when the issuer exercises its right to redeem the bondbefore it matures.Risk ofBonds with extendable maturi- Investors would not have a definite schedule of principal repayment.ty dateConvertible or exchangeable bondrisk Investors are subject to both equity and bond investment risk.CocosriskThe bond may be written-off fully or partially or converted to common stock on the occurrence of a trigger event.Explanation of indices frequently used in reportsIndexCommentAustralia S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200 is an Australian market-capitalization-weighted and float-adjusted stock index calculated by Standard and Poor's.Investment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC6

BC High Yield Corp USDThe US Corporate High Yield Index measures USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate and taxable corporatebonds. The index is calculated by Barclays.BC High Yield Pan EURThe Euro Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate, investment-grade, euro-denominated corporate bond market. The index includesissues that meet specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements. The index is calculated by Barclays.BC IG Corporate EURThe US Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate, investment-grade, euro-denominated corporate bond market. The index includesboth US and non-US issues that meet specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements. The index is calculated by Barclays.BC IG Corporate USDThe IG Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate, investment-grade, dollar-denominated corporate bond market. The index includesboth US and non-US issues that meet specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements. The index is calculated by Barclays.Canada S&P/TSX compThe S&P/TSX composite index is the Canadian equivalent of the S&P 500 Index in the USA. The index contains the largeststocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Consumer Confidence IndicesConsumer Confidence Indices (CCIs) are based on surveys of consumers' spending intentions and economic situations, as wellas their concerns and expectations for the immediate future.CS Hedge Fund IndexThe Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index is compiled by Credit Suisse Hedge Index LLC. It is an asset-weighted hedge fund indexand includes only funds, as opposed to separate accounts. The index reflects performance net of all hedge fund componentperformance fees and expenses.CS LSI ex govt CHFThe Liquid Swiss Index ex govt CHF is a market-capitalized bond index representing the most liquid and tradable portion of theSwiss bond market excluding Swiss government bonds. The index is calculated by Credit Suisse.DAXThe German Stock Index stock represents 30 of the largest and most liquid German companies that trade on the FrankfurtExchange.DXYA measure of the value of the US dollar relative to the majority of its most important trading partners. The US Dollar Index issimilar to other trade-weighted indices, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.Eurostoxx 50Eurostoxx 50 is a market-capitalization-weighted stock index of 50 leading blue-chip companies in the Eurozone.FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Series The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Series is designed to represent general trends in eligible real estate equitiesworldwide.Hedge Fund BarometerThe Hedge Fund Barometer is a proprietary Credit Suisse scoring tool that measures market conditions for hedge fund strategies.It comprises four components: liquidity, volatility; systemic risks and business cycle.Japan TopixTOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, tracks all large Japanese companies listed in the stock exchange's "firstsection." The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks.JPM EM hard curr. USDThe Emerging Market Bond Index Plus tracks the total return of hard-currency sovereign bonds across the most liquid emergingmarkets. The index encompasses US-denominated Brady bonds (dollar-denominated bonds issued by Latin American countries),loans and Eurobonds.JPM EM local curr. hedg. USDThe JPMorgan Government Bond Index tracks local currency bonds issued by emerging market governments across the mostaccessible markets for international investors.MSCI AC Asia/PacificThe MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index captures large and mid cap representation across 5 developed market countries and8 emerging markets countries in the Asia Pacific region. With 1,000 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of thefree float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.MSCI AC WorldThe MSCI All Country World Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 developed markets and 23 emergingmarket countries. With roughly 2480 constituents, the index covers around 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.MSCI Emerging MarketsMSCI Emerging Markets is a free-float-weighted Index designed to measure equity market performance in global emergingmarkets. The index is developed and calculated by Morgan Stanley Capital International.MSCI EMUThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10Developed Markets countries in the EMU. With 237 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjustedmarket capitalization of the EMU.MSCI EuropeThe MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 developed markets countries in Europe. With442 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Europeandeveloped markets equity universe.MSCI UKThe MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the UK market.With 111 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the UK.MSCI WorldMSCI World is an index of global equity markets developed and calculated by Morgan Stanley Capital International. Calculationsare based on closing prices with dividends reinvested.OECD Composite Leading IndicatorsOECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) are designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles withcomponents that measure early stages of production, respond to changes in economic activity, and are sensitive to expectationsof future activity.Purchasing Managers' IndicesPurchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private-sector companies. Thetwo principal producers of PMIs are Markit Group, which conducts PMIs for over 30 countries worldwide, and the Institute forSupply Management (ISM), which conducts PMIs for the United States. The indices include additional sub-indices for manufacturing surveys such as new orders, employment, exports, stocks of raw materials and finished goods, prices of inputs and finishedgoods, and services.Russell 1000 Growth IndexThe Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the US equity universe basedon 1000 large-cap companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecast growth values.Russell 1000 IndexThe Russell 1000 Index is a stock market index that represents the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index(encompassing the 3,000 largest US-traded stocks, with the underlying companies all incorporated in the USA), and representingabout 90% of the total market capitalization of that index. The Russell 1000 Index has a weighted average market capitalizationof USD 81 billion and the median market capitalization is approximately USD 4.6 billion.Russell 1000 Value IndexThe Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the US equity universe based on1000 large-cap companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values.Switzerland SMIThe Swiss Market Index is made up of 20 of the largest companies listed of the Swiss Performance Index universe. It represents85% of the free-float capitalization of the Swiss equity market. As a price index, the SMI is not adjusted for dividends.UK FTSE 100FTSE 100 is a market-capitalization-weighted stock index that represents 100 of the most highly capitalized companies tradedon the London Stock exchange. The equities have an investibility weighting in the index calculation.US S&P 500Standard and Poor's 500 is a capitalization-weighted stock index representing all major industries in the USA, which measuresthe performance of the domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value.Investment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC7

Abbreviations frequently used in reportsAbb.DescriptionAbb.Description3/6/12 MMA3/6/12 month moving averageIMFInternational Monetary FundAIAlternative investmentsLatAmLatin AmericaAPACAsia PacificLiborLondon interbank offered ratebblbarrelm b/dMillion barrels per dayBIBank IndonesiaM1A measure of the money supply that includes all physical money,such as coins and currency, as well as demand deposits,checking accounts and negotiable order of withdrawal accounts.BoCBank of CanadaM2A measure of money supply that includes cash and checkingdeposits (M1) as well as savings deposits, money market mutualfunds and other time deposits.BoEBank of EnglandM3A measure of money supply that includes M2 as well as largetime deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets.BoJBank of JapanM&AMergers and acquisitionsbpBasis pointsMASMonetary Authority of SingaporeBRICBrazil, Russia, China, IndiaMLPMaster Limited PartnershipCAGRCompound annual growth rateMoMMonth-on-monthCBOEChicago Board Options ExchangeMPCMonetary Policy CommitteeCFOCash from operationsOASOption-adjusted spreadCFROICash flow return on investmentOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentDCFDiscounted cash flowOISOvernight indexed swapDMDeveloped MarketOPECOrganization of Petroleum Exporting CountriesDMsDeveloped MarketsP/BPrice-to-book valueEBITDAEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization P/EPrice-earnings ratioECBEuropean Central BankPBoCPeople's Bank of ChinaEEMEAEastern Europe, Middle East and AfricaPEGP/E ratio divided by growth in EPSEMEmerging MarketPMIPurchasing Managers' IndexEMEAEurope, Middle East and AfricaPPPPurchasing power parityEMsEmerging MarketsQEQuantitative easingEMUEuropean Monetary UnionQoQQuarter-on-quarterEPSEarnings per sharer.h.s.right-hand side (for charts)ETFExchange traded fundsRBAReserve Bank of AustraliaEVEnterprise valueRBIReserve Bank of IndiaFCFFree cash flowRBNZReserve Bank of New ZealandFedUS Federal ReserveREITReal estate investment trustFFOFunds from operationsROEReturn on equityFOMCFederal Open Market CommitteeROICReturn on invested capitalFXForeign exchangeRRRReserve requirement ratioG10Group of TenSAAStrategic asset allocationG3Group of ThreeSDRSpecial drawing rightsGDPGross domestic productSNBSwiss National BankGPIFGovernment Pension Investment FundTAATactical asset allocationHCHard currencyTWITrade-Weighted IndexHYHigh yieldVIXVolatility IndexIBDInterest-bearing debtWTIWest Texas IntermediateICCredit Suisse Investment CommitteeYoYYear-on-yearIGInvestment gradeYTDYear-to-dateILBInflation-linked bondPersonal ConsumptionAn indicator of the average increase in prices for all domesticExpenditure (PCE defla- personal consumption.tor)Currency codes frequently used in reportsCodeCurrencyCodeCurrencyARSArgentine pesoKRWSouth Korean wonAUDAustralian dollarMXNMexican pesoBRLBrazilian realMYRMalaysian ringgitCADCanadian dollarNOKNorwegian kroneCHFSwiss francNZDNew Zealand dollarCLPChilean pesoPENPeruvian nuevo solCNYChinese yuanPHPPhilippine pesoCOPColombian pesoPLNPolish złotyCZKCzech korunaRUBRussian rubleEUREuroSEKSwedish krona/kronorGBPPound sterlingSGDSingapore dollarHKDHong Kong dollarTHBThai bahtInvestment Weekly This material is for distribution in Japan only. Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 10/12/2021, 14:13, UTC8

HUFHungarian forintTRYTurkish liraIDRIndonesian rupiahTWDNew Taiwan dollarILSIsraeli new shekelUSDUnited States dollarINRIndian rupeeZARSouth African randJPYJapanese yenImportant information on derivativesPricingOption pre

Commodities: A bumpy ride Commodities have had a bumpy few weeks, with benchmarks retreating from their October highs. Renewed COVID-19 uncertainty has weighed, especially on oil, while volatility in gas/power markets stays abnormally high. Gold has failed to benefit, as central banks seem to be going ahead with plans to tighten monetary policy.