2021 Drinking Water Needs Assessment - California

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DRINKING WATERNEEDSASSESSMENTInforming the 2021-22 Safe & AffordableDrinking Water Fund Expenditure PlanApril 2021State Water Resources Control BoardPage i

AcknowledgementsContributorsThis report was prepared by the California State Water Resources Control Board within theCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA), in partnership with the UCLA LuskinCenter for Innovation (UCLA).UCLA in turn partnered with Corona Environmental Consulting (Corona), Sacramento StateUniversity Office of Water Programs, the Pacific Institute and the UNC Environmental FinanceCenter to carry out much of the analysis contained in this report.State Water Board Contributing AuthorsKristyn Abhold, Jeffrey Albrecht, William Allen, Michelle Frederick, Emily Houlihan, MawjKhammas, David Leslie, Hee Kyung Lim, and Bansari TailorUCLA Team Contributing AuthorsGregory Pierce (Principal Investigator, Needs Assessment Contract), Peter Roquemore, andKelly TrumbullCorona Team Contributing AuthorsTarrah Henrie, Craig Gorman, Chad Seidel, Vivian Jensen, Carleigh Samson, NathanMacArthur, Brittany Gregory, and Adam McKeagneyOWP at Sacramento State Team Contributing AuthorsMaureen Kerner, Erik Porse, Khalil Lezzaik, Dakota Keene, and Caitlyn LeoPacific Institute Team Contributing AuthorsMorgan Shimabuku and Lillian HolmesUNC Team Contributing AuthorsShadi EskafAcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to Julien Gattaciecca and Jacqueline Adams (UCLA), Laura Feinstein and LeoRodriguez (Pacific Institute), and Julia Cavalier and Jeff Hughes (UNC) for their advice,analysis and background research which helped to inform this report. We also thank JuliaEkstrom (Department of Water Resources) and Carolina Balazs (Office of EnvironmentalHealth Hazards Assessment) for their insight on methodology and coordinating their agency’sdata sharing which was incorporated into the Risk Assessment. Additionally, we acknowledgethe contributions and insights from comment letters received by the Board from a diversegroup of stakeholders on a draft version of this report, as well as input received at publicmeetings and workshops on versions of this work held around the state.State Water Resources Control BoardPage ii

CONTENTSDEFINITION OF TERMS . 9EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 15Highlights . 16Failing Water Systems: The HR2W List . 18Needs Assessment Results . 18Risk Assessment . 18Cost Assessment . 21Affordability Assessment . 28Tribal Needs Assessment Results . 31HR2W List and At-Risk Equivalent. 31Tribal Cost Assessment . 32Opportunities for Refinement . 32Water System Requests for Data Updates . 33INTRODUCTION . 34About the Needs Assessment . 34Needs Analysis Contract . 37Stakeholder Involvement. 37FAILING WATER SYSTEMS: THE HR2W LIST . 39RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS . 42Overview . 42Public Water Systems Assessed . 42Risk Assessment Methodology . 43Risk Indicators . 44Risk Assessment Results . 46At-Risk Water Systems . 46Risk Indicator Drivers . 50Risk Indicator Category Results . 52Water Quality . 52Accessibility . 53Affordability . 55TMF Capacity. 56Limitations of the Risk Assessment for Public Water Systems . 57Risk Assessment Refinement Opportunities . 59State Water Resources Control BoardPage iii

RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR STATE SMALL WATER SYSTEMS & DOMESTICWELLS . 62Overview . 62Risk Assessment Methodology . 62Risk Assessment Results . 64Limitations of the Risk Assessment for State Small Water Systems & Domestic Wells . 68Refinement Opportunities . 68COST ASSESSMENT RESULTS . 70Overview . 70Cost Assessment Model . 70Cost Estimation Level of Accuracy. 76Long-Term Cost Assessment Results. 77Statewide Capital Cost Estimate . 77Statewide O&M Costs Estimate . 81Additional Long-Term Cost Assessment Analysis. 82Interim Solution Cost Assessment Results . 87Cost Assessment Limitations . 88Cost Assessment Refinement Opportunities. 91FUNDING GAP ANALYSIS RESULTS . 93Overview . 93Gap Analysis Methodology . 93Step 1: Estimated Needs & Funding Availability . 94Estimated Funding & Financing Needs . 94Estimated Funding and Financing Availability . 99Step 2: Matching Funding Needs to Funding Programs . 100Step 3: Gap Analysis Results. 101Gap Analysis of All State Water Board Funds. 101Supplemental Gap Analysis for the SADWF . 110Gap Analysis Conclusions . 110Gap Analysis Limitations . 111Gap Analysis Refinement Opportunities . 112AFFORDABILITY ASSESSMENT RESULTS . 114Overview . 114Affordability Assessment Methodology . 115Aggregated Affordability Assessment Results . 118Affordability Results by Community Economic Status. 118State Water Resources Control BoardPage iv

Affordability Results by Water System SAFER Program Status . 124Small Water System Rates Dashboard . 129Affordability Assessment Limitations. 130Affordability Assessment Refinement Opportunities . 131CONCLUSIONS . 133Needs Assessment Observations & Future Iterations. 133Needs Assessment Next Steps. 136Water System Requests for Data Updates . 1362021-22 Safe and Affordable Drinking Water Fund Expenditure Plan . 136APPENDIX A: RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS 138INTRODUCTION . 138Public Water Systems Assessed . 138Risk Assessment Methodology Development Process . 139Public Webinar Workshop – April 17, 2020 . 141Public Webinar Workshop – July 22, 2020 . 141Public Webinar Workshop – October 13, 2020 . 142Public Webinar Workshop – December 14, 2020 . 143RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY . 144Risk Indicators . 145Risk Indicator Thresholds, Scores, & Weights . 147Thresholds . 147Scores . 148Weights . 149Risk Indicator Category Weights . 155Aggregated Risk Assessment Calculation Methodology . 156Adjusting for Missing Data . 157Aggregated Risk Assessment Thresholds . 158RISK INDICATOR DETAILS . 160Water Quality Risk Indicators . 160History of E. coli Presence . 160Increasing Presence of Water Quality Trends Toward MCL . 163Treatment Technique Violations . 169Past Presence on the HR2W List. 172Maximum Duration of High Potential Exposure (HPE) . 174Percentage of Sources Exceeding an MCL . 177Accessibility Risk Indicators . 183State Water Resources Control BoardPage v

Number of Sources . 183Absence of Interties . 185Water Source Types . 187DWR – Drought & Water Shortage Risk Assessment Results . 190Critically Overdrafted Groundwater Basin . 192Affordability Risk Indicators . 196Percent of Median Household Income (%MHI) . 196Extreme Water Bill . 200% Shut-Offs. 203TMF Capacity Risk Indicators . 205Number of Service Connections . 205Operator Certification Violations . 208Monitoring & Reporting Violations . 210Significant Deficiencies . 213Extensive Treatment Installed . 216APPENDIX B: RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR STATE SMALL WATERSYSTEMS & DOMESTIC WELLS . 219INTRODUCTION . 219Risk Assessment Methodology Development Process . 220Intended Use of This Analysis. 220METHODOLOGY . 220Data Processing. 220Depth Filter . 225Wells with Known Numeric Depths . 227Wells with Unknown Numeric Depths . 228De-Clustering . 228Long-Term Average . 228Recent Results. 229Unit of Analysis . 229Risk Factors . 229Water Quality Risk (“Hazard”) . 229Domestic Well and State Small System Density (“Exposure”) . 233Combined Risk (Water Quality and Domestic Well/State Small Reliant Population). 233APPENDIX C: COST ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY. 235INTRODUCTION . 235Cost Assessment Methodology Development Process. 235COST ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY. 238State Water Resources Control BoardPage vi

Identification of Water Systems and Domestic Wells . 238Analyze Identified Issues . 239Identifying Possible Modeled Solutions: Issues Mapping to Possible Solutions. 242Modeled Solutions . 243Develop Cost Estimates for Modeled Solutions . 249Cost Estimation Level of Accuracy. 249Cost Escalation . 250Net Present Worth Development . 250Regional Cost Adjustment. 250Interim Solution Costs . 251Physical Consolidation Costs . 253Well Head Treatment Costs . 255Point of Use/Point of Entry Treatment Costs. 262Other Essential Infrastructure (OEI) Needs. 263Technical Assistance (Managerial Support) . 271Sustainability and Resiliency Assessment . 272Select Modeled Solution for Each System . 275HR2W List Systems . 275At-Risk Public Water Systems . 278At-Risk State Small Water Systems and Domestic Wells . 278Roll-up of Estimated Costs. 278Identify Funding Needs and Funding Gap . 278APPENDIX D: GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY . 279INTRODUCTION . 279Gap Analysis Methodology Development Process . 279GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY . 280Step 1: Estimating Funding Needs and Funding Availability . 282Estimating Funding Needs . 282Estimating Funding Availability . 289Non-State Water Board Funds . 293Step 2: Matching Funding Needs to Funding Programs . 300Step 3: Estimating the Funding Gap . 301Approach 1: Tiered Prioritization Based on System and Modeled Solution Types. 302Approach 2: SADWF Target Expenditures. 304APPENDIX E: AFFORDABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY . 311INTRODUCTION . 311Affordability Assessment Methodology Development Process . 312State Water Resources Control BoardPage vii

AFFORDABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY . 312DAC & SDAC Determination . 313Affordability Indicators. 314% Median Household Income . 314Extreme Water Bill . 318% Shut-Offs. 320APPENDIX F: NEEDS ASSESSMENT FOR TRIBAL WATER SYSTEMS . 323INTRODUCTION . 323NEEDS ASSESSMENT FOR TRIBAL WATER SYSTEMS . 323HR2W List Equivalent Tribal Water Systems . 324Tribal Water System Water Quality Violations . 324Methodology for Identifying HR2W List Equivalent Tribal Water Systems . 326At-Risk List Equivalent Tribal Water Systems . 326Cost Assessment for Tribal Water Systems . 327Tribal Methodology for Gap Analysis . 330Tribal Methodology for the Affordability Assessment . 331TRIBAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT LIMITATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES . 331Limitations . 331Opportunities. 332State Water Resources Control BoardPage viii

DEFINITION OF TERMSThis report includes the following defined terms.“Affordability Threshold” means the level, point, or value that delineates if a water system’sresidential customer charges, designed to ensure the water systems can provide drinkingwater that meets State and Federal standards, are unaffordable. For the purposes of the 2021Affordability Assessment, the State Water Board employed affordability thresholds for thefollowing indicators: Percent Median Household Income; Extreme Water Bill; and PercentShut-Offs. Learn more about current and future indicators and affordability thresholds inAppendix E.“Adequate supply” means sufficient water to meet residents’ health and safety needs at alltimes. (Health & Saf. Code, § 116681, subd. (a).)“Administrator” means an individual, corporation, company, association, partnership, limitedliability company, municipality, public utility, or other public body or institution which the StateWater Board has determined is competent to perform the administrative, technical, operational,legal, or managerial services required for purposes of Health and Safety Code section 116686,pursuant to the Administrator Policy Handbook adopted by the State Water Board. (Health &Saf. Code, §§ 116275, subd. (g), 116686, subd. (m)(1).)“Affordability Assessment” means the identification of any community water system thatserves a disadvantaged community that must charge fees that exceed the affordabilitythreshold established by the State Water Board in order to supply, treat, and distribute potablewater that complies with Federal and state drinking water standards. The AffordabilityAssessment evaluates several different affordability indicators to identify communities that maybe experiencing affordability challenges. (Health & Saf. Code, § 116769, subd. (2)(B).“At-Risk public water systems” or “At-Risk PWS” means community water systems with3,300 service connections or less and K-12 schools that are at risk of failing to meet one ormore key Human Right to Water goals: (1) providing safe drinking water; (2) accessibledrinking water; (3) affordable drinking water; and/or (4) maintaining a sustainable watersystem.“At-Risk state small water systems and domestic wells” or “At-Risk SSWS and domesticwells” means state small water systems and domestic wells that are located in areas wheregroundwater is at high risk of containing contaminants that exceed safe drinking waterstandards. This definition may be expanded in future iterations of the Needs Assessment asmore data on domestic wells and state small water systems becomes available.“California Native American Tribe” means Federally recognized California Native AmericanTribes, and non-Federally recognized Native American Tribes on the contact list maintained bythe Native American Heritage Commission for the purposes of Chapter 905 of the Statutes of2004. (Health & Saf. Code, § 116766, subd. (c)(1).) Typically, drinking water systems forFederally recognized tribes fall under the regulatory jurisdiction of the United StatesEnvironmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), while public water systems operated by nonFederally recognized tribes currently fall under the jurisdiction of the State Water Board.Page 9

“Capital costs” means the costs associated with the acquisition, construction, anddevelopment of water system infrastructure. These costs may include the cost of infrastructure(treatment solutions, consolidation, etc.), design and engineering costs, environmentalcompliance costs, construction management fees, general contractor fees, etc. Full details ofthe capital costs considered and utilized in the Needs Assessment are in Appendix C.“Community water system” or “CWS” means a public water system that serves at least 15service connections used by yearlong residents or regularly serves at least 25 yearlongresidents of the area served by the system. (Health & Saf. Code, § 116275, subd. (i).)“Consistently fail” means a failure to p

APPENDIX B: RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR STATE SMALL WATER . APPENDIX B: RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR STATE SMALL WATER . INTRODUCTION 219 . Risk Assessment Methodology Development Process 220 . Intended Use of This Analysis 220 . METHODOLOGY 220 . Data Processing 220 . Depth Filter 225 . Wells with Known Numeric Depths 227

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