Framing The Automated Vehicle Landscape - MaRS Discovery District
Framingthe AutomatedVehicleLandscapeToward a Safe, Equitable,Efficient, and IntegratedMobility Future1Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
ExecutiveSummaryAn unprecedented revolution in mobility is happening, and automated vehicles(AVs) are part of it. This report explores key considerations for the deploymentof AVs in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, and articulates unifyingdesign principles to guide cross-sector collaboration toward a safe, equitable,efficient, and integrated mobility future. The report identifies nine keychallenges, and proposes near-term actions and prototypes for each challenge,to accelerate the transition to a mobility system that works for all.1Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Tableof ContentsWhy Regulate Automated Vehicles?3AVs Are One Part of a Bigger Mobility Revolution6Time Horizons and Trends in AV Deployment8Problem Frame9Our Research10Design Principles to Guide AV Deployment12 Recommendations13Make road safety king.Form and function: Think beyond driverless cars. Business models: Elevate social use casesand efficient transportation models. Design streets with all forms of mobility in mind. Prioritize public, active, and shared mobility.Optimize technical data.Protect personal information.Use clean energy. Activate a shared vision for the long game andstrong leadership to drive immediate action.Next Steps235Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Why Regulate Automated Vehicles?It’s not just the tools we have that matter, buthow we use them. Automated vehicles (AVs)could optimize the commuting experience, withbenefits that include increased safety,1 reducedcommuting time, reduced costs, increasedaccess to opportunities, increased comfort,improved air quality, and productivity gains.2Yet if deployment is managed poorly, AVscan exacerbate existing challenges aroundcongestion, access and equity, pollution,and transit efficiency. The broader adoptionof automated vehicles may substantially increasethe volume of vehicle kilometres travelled,as personalized mobility becomes an attractiveoption3 and we see a reduction in costs acrosslabour, maintenance, and fuel. This, alongwith the rebound effect,4 is what creates sucha compelling case for proactive regulatorymodernization. The issues raised by AVs aren’tcompletely novel, but the pace and scaleof change require policy-makers to be moreproactive and agile.“There is a need to integrate the policyand design that makes this usefuland beneficial to cities. What Torontoand Ontario does on this topic canset precedents across the world.”Rohit Aggarwala, Sidewalk LabsVehicle kilometres travelled3Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
“Preparing and integrating automated and autonomousvehicles into regional transportation systems is notsomething that can be done alone, but when all ordersof government, and jurisdictions across the world,work together to advance the best possible futurefor urban mobility.”City of Toronto Transportation Services, Divisional Workplan 2016 – 2018,Preparing for Autonomous Vehicles4Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Why Regulate Automated Vehicles?To be convinced of the need for proactiveregulatory modernization, consider two possiblefutures for Toronto when AVs are adoptedinto the city’s transportation network.In 2050.Single-rider automated vehicles have outcompeted most formsof public transportation because of their convenience andprice competitiveness. Because of the preference for privatedoor-to-door rides, we see an overall increase in congestionon the road, and time-to-location during rush hours continuesto climb. Collisions have increased, as AVs and human-operatedvehicles share the same roads but behave very differently.Single-rider self-driving cars are accessible for many Torontonians,but they remain too expensive for many others, who rely on publictransportation. The public transportation experience continuesto erode, due to strained infrastructure, overcrowding, and congestion.The in-vehicle experience of driverless cars is dominated by retailand social media experiences, filling the downtime of commuting withinconsequential and highly addictive consumer behaviours.5ORAutomated vehicles are leading the City of Toronto into a new ageof sustainability and efficiency. The roads are safer than everbefore, with an 80% reduction in casualties. In addition to privatepassenger vehicles, subways, buses, and streetcars have beenautomated, increasing the overall efficiency and integration of thepublic transit network. Some single-rider AVs are on the road,but they pick up and drop off riders in designated zones. The reductionin door-to-door ride-hailing services incentivized a higher investmentin automated public shared mobility services and active mobilityoptions. The in-vehicle experience of AVs is diverse, ranging fromcommercial experiences to social service delivery. Riders can performa range of activities in transit—like repairing their computer orgetting a health check-up—repurposing the downtime of transitinto highly productive time for commuters.Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
AVs Are One Part of a BiggerMobility Revolution6Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
AVs Are One Part of a BiggerMobility RevolutionAn unprecedented revolutionin mobility is happening,and robot drivers are goingto be part of it, becausethey can really move theneedle on safety. Algorithmsnever get tired, distracted,impaired, or angry. Crucially,they can learn from everymistake and instantly updateglobally. But this revolutionin mobility is bigger than justreplacing human drivers.It is the convergence of fiveadditional and equallyimportant trends.1. IntegratedAll modes of moving people and goodsaround and between our cities need toallow for seamless interconnectivitythrough an integrated system.4. SharedThe majority of experts and participantsin our study desired a much higherproportion of shared mobility than wehave at present. Shared mobility(i.e., carpooling and mass transit) canradically reduce congestion, costs,and environmental impacts. Sharingdoesn’t require any new technology.It doesn’t require us to build expensiveinfrastructure or buy new vehicles.If we do it right, it could evenbuild community cohesion, inclusion,and belonging.72. ConnectedWhen vehicles start talking to oneanother and to transportationinfrastructure, they can be safer andsmarter, avoiding accidents andcongestion. They can also generatenetwork effects, like optimizing theallocation of shared vehicles against adynamic demand signal.55. Active MobilityFor going long distances, carrying heavyloads, and universal accessibility, weneed transportation powered by cleanenergy. For short trips and the firstand last mile, active mobility should bethe preferred option. Whether it iswalking or using bicycles, kick scooters,skateboards, roller skates, skis, orsnowshoes, active mobility improves3. ElectricIf we deploy automated vehicles withcombustion engines, we may actually endup increasing greenhouse gas emissions.Electric vehicles can be powered byrenewable energy. They also offer thepotential to eliminate most of the noisepollution from traffic.health and well-being. Active mobilityreduces the incidence of obesity,cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes,cancer, and several mental illnesses,including depression, while alsofurther reducing the environmentalfootprint of mobility.6Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Time Horizons and Trends in AV DeploymentToday, two-thirds of vehicles operating inCanada have some connectivity throughembedded telematics and similar features.7Automated vehicles available for consumerpurchase include Level 1 (Driver Assistance)and Level 2 (Partial Automation). Level 3(Conditional Automation) technologies arebeing tested on public roadways throughoutNorth America, Europe, and Asia,8 andsome jurisdictions are beginning to exploreLevel 4 (High Automation) in restrictedenvironments.9By 2025, it is anticipated that every carsold — including automated vehicles — will beconnected by multiple means. There area variety of estimates as to when Level 4 and 5automated vehicles will begin to operateon public roadways, ranging from the early- tomid-2020s to the mid-2030s and beyond.This transition period from human driversto fully automated vehicles may presentthe most uncertainty and complexity.10 11 12 13 14For the next 10- to 20-year period, personallyowned and shared, partially and fullyautomated, and partially and fully connectedvehicles will coexist, which poses significantsocial, technical, and regulatory challenges.15While a number of major manufacturers planto launch autonomous passenger cars inthe next year, the current consensus is thatdeployment of Level 4 and 5 vehicles onpublic roads will not be commonplace untilthe 2030s or 2040s.16Near-Term(2019–2024)Modernize safety standardsProtect privacy & securityRegulate for innovationIncrease AV literacyHarmonize regulationsMedium-Term(2025–2029)Modernize traffic lawsModernize traffic law enforcementUpdate insurance & liabilityManage the transitionMitigate negative impactsLong-Term(2030 and beyond)Harmonize network mobility planningTransition infrastructureNote: It is probable that we won’t undertake these activitiesin as neatly defined points in time as visualized above.More likely, we will continuously revise and redefine thesepoints over a period of 10 years. For example, distracteddriving laws will be modified for Level 3 automated vehiclesbut will no longer be relevant for Level 5 AVs.Considerations for AV RegulationWe are here8Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
How might we create market and policyconditions that enable automated vehiclesto support safe, equitable, and efficienttransportation models for Toronto and Ontario?ProblemFrame9Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Our ResearchOver a six-week period spanning Novemberto December 2018, MaRS Solutions Lab,with the support of Sidewalk Labs, performedresearch and convened stakeholdersto deliberate on automated vehicle (AV)deployment in Toronto, with a focuson safety and microeconomic considerations.The activity sought to explore the potentialof AVs to improve mobility and to scope outregulatory changes that could managenegative externalities.This document summarizes our high-levelinsights and guidance for automated vehiclesbased on our understanding of the literatureand our stakeholder engagement to date. Thework is a jumping-off point and complementsongoing AV activities under way by the Cityof Toronto and other organizations. We areprimarily focused on scoping considerations foran ongoing deeper collaborative process,10in which companies, government, civilsociety, and citizens can co-design anddeploy (1) regulatory interventions tomanage AV deployment, and (2) use casesfor emerging transportation technologiesthat solve for both social need andcommercial viability.This brief is accompanied by a detailedreport that documents the process, interviewinsights, research findings, and workshopoutcomes in greater depth.The work involved three activities:1. A rapid research and horizon scan2. Interviews with 13 national andinternational AV experts3. Development and delivery of aco-design workshop with 26participants from public, private,academic, and civil societyorganizationsFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Our ResearchThe scope and depth of the research was limitedby a six-week time horizon. Research gapsshould be sustainably filled, including co-designand user research with general citizens.3713261822804121221320reports analyzedorganizationshours of opparticipantsprivatecompaniescollective hours dedicatedto co-design by workshopparticipantscivil societyorganizationscollective hours spentreviewing documents andprocessing findingsFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
Design Principles to GuideAV DeploymentOver the six-week period, we were able toideate and build consensus across our researchparticipants for the following design principlesto guide automated vehicle deployment. Designprinciples are a touchstone for all collaborators.They unify our diverse innovation agendas byreminding us of our shared goals.1.Improve safety of passengers and non-passengers2.Increase the overall efficiency of transportation and infrastructure3.Minimize environmental impacts of the mobility system.5.Design for universal access and equity of serviceDesign principles are one part proactive(helping to set intentions) and one part reflective(helping to measure progress). You will finda detailed description and list of metrics foreach principle in the detailed report. We intendto continue to develop and activate metricsfor each design principle to measure Torontoand Ontario’s progress over time.6.Ensure affordability of transportation services7.Protect privacy, cybersecurity and appropriate data transparency8.Improve quality of life for all9.Earn public trust and confidence in AV technology124. Reduce road congestion and infrastructure impact10. Enable citizen participation and consultation across the full innovation arcFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
1. Make road safety king.2. Form & function: Think beyond driverless cars.3. Business models: Elevate social use cases and efficienttransportation models.4. Design streets with all forms of mobility in mind.5. Prioritize public, active, and shared mobility.6. Optimize technical data.7. Protect personal information.8. Use clean energy.9. Activate a shared vision for the long game and strongleadership to drive immediate action.Recommendations13Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
1. Make road safety king.The ChallengeThere are many good reasons to want a radically different transportation system thanthe one we currently have. Eliminating congestion. Reducing environmental footprint.Accessible mobility for everyone. Cheaper rides. Massive productivity gains. As desirableas these are, we heard from experts and stakeholders: safety trumps them all.When we can get around without costing us the lives of our loved ones, we will havean immeasurably better society to live in.Most industry analysts anticipate AVs will eventually be safer than standard vehicles.17 18 19In AVs, data underpins safety performance, as vehicle operation and technicalevolution is continually refined by the data gathered in testing and deploymentscenarios.20 This poses a unique opportunity, in that driver data can be appliedto rapidly evolving technology and thus effect step changes toward safety.To date, however, the data generated (and the performance achieved) is highlyinfluenced by the unique conditions of a particular testing environment. This impliesthat real-world operating performance is highly context driven and therefore notnecessarily replicable across or in other regions, particularly when factoring in inclementweather and climate conditions. Also, and in many cases, the race to commercializeand capitalize on AV technology has generated keen private-sector interest to keeptesting results exclusive. This poses complexity for planners and the private sector,as both share interest in consistently meeting safety objectives, yet each is driven bydifferent motivations when it comes to data provision.Moreover, experts have acknowledged that ensuring safety will be most challengingin the near-term transition period, when autonomous, semi-autonomous andtraditional vehicles share the road, and the technology is still highly prototype innature.21 22 23 This complexity will be exacerbated by the associated need for the vehicleto-infrastructure (or more broadly, vehicle-to-everything) connectivity required foroptimal AV operation—an area that has lagged behind innovations in vehicle design.2414“The difference between aviation andautomotive is the scale of the complexityof the problem. [Aviation has] a very clearstandard of the mechanical, electrical,and software reliability of an aircraft, andthese are well-understood modules.Where that breaks on autonomousdriving is that it’s hard to knowhow much detail to detect — what is andisn’t important to driving. Every individualhuman being has to be disambiguatedfrom a crowd of 50 on the sidewalk.Or every duck that walks on the roadhas to be detected correctly, as well asevery goose. How far do we have to go;how much do we have to understand aboutthe environment in order to drive safely?” Steven Waslander, Director, Toronto Robotics andArtificial Intelligence Laboratory (TRAILab)Associate Professor, Institute for Aerospace StudiesFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
1. Make road safety king.What Can Be Prototyped?Local Conditions for AV Deployment1. Controlled regional pilot testingLocal decision-makers will need to enable varied and in situ deployment scenariosfor industry to test and evolve technology25 to the point where it is sufficiently de-riskedto operate in the public realm, yet they will have to do so in a manner that will notput humans and infrastructure in harm’s way. This prototype idea is simply a provocationto amplify existing efforts in this area.2. Zero tolerance at all stages of discoveryOn the part of industry, testing will need to consistently meet a zero-tolerance bar forserious human injury at all stages and variations of technical discovery, including inthe most complex near-term transition period. This is in support of the City of Toronto’sVision Zero plan to reduce traffic-related fatalities and serious injuries.263. Enact a framework for technical data sharing that directly enablescrash avoidance and optimizes supporting infrastructureThe sharing of critical, potentially proprietary technical data between (and within) theprivate sector and with the public sector would significantly contribute to the collectiveinterest to evolve technological performance and infrastructure, and minimize safetyrisks. This would also help decision-makers plan and set performance measures,informed by and corresponding with the stage and results of regional deployment todate. However, currently in Ontario, the Autonomous Vehicle Innovation Network(AVIN) does not collect proprietary data from its members according to its Data andInformation Sharing Protocol. 27 This and other restricted sharing protocols would needto change in order to enable the collective benefits from aggregated technical data.15“Let’s say there’s an accident. If somethinggoes wrong, how do we regulate?And how do we sort out the root causeand who’s to blame for this? [ ] Whathappens when an [AV] car hits a cyclistor a pedestrian? There are all sortsof ethical issues that need to be thoughtabout. [.] Getting vehicles able to [driveautonomously] is one thing. But actuallyregulating in a safe, equitable, and fairway, that’s the real challenge. And I thinkthat’s what’s going to slow things down.”Chris Sainsbury, KPMG LLPFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
2. Form and function: Think beyond driverless cars.The ChallengeAV does not (just) mean driverless car. If you ask a citizen to picture an automatedvehicle, they will likely think of a car without a driver because we’ve built our currenttransportation system around the form of a five-seat automobile. But if we buildthe future in the image of the past, we will surely miss the unique opportunity of thisrevolution to move people, goods, and services in fundamentally new ways thatlook nothing like today’s cars.28 We have yet to get truly creative when answeringthe question: what is in the realm of AVs or robotics?AV deployment in market could either reinforce inefficient consumer and economicmodels for transportation or provide an opportunity for the transportation communityto reset some historically problematic economic models and consumer behavioursaround mobility.Stakes are high in the near-term. The industry’s choice of leading business modelswill set an expectation from consumers about how AVs will function in their lives,all while organizations will still be proving viability and profitability of the services.Creative use cases for AV deployment will require a more concerted investmentfrom both private and public sectors to accommodate the innovative technologiesthat optimize our roads with existing and future infrastructure.16Freight & CargoVehicles that drive themselves will not necessarilytransport people: they could also transport freightand cargo, deliveries, and supplies, and could movealong sidewalks, underground, or inside buildings.29ShuttlesShuttles have a significantly less barrier to market,as there are constrained or routed operatingzones in geo-fenced areas that imply predictabilityand thus facilitate mapping effort.30 31 32Municipal ServicesBoundaries may blur between vehicles that do notjust drive themselves but also perform functions liketrash collection6 or snow clearing.33 34Passenger ExperienceThe current experiences of checking in at airportsecurity, dining at restaurants, and attending healthor financial appointments can be revolutionizedby leveraging the interior of AVs.35Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
2. Form and function: Think beyond driverless cars.What Can Be Prototyped?Explore human-centred service delivery on the periphery of AV Personal use, mass transit, and freight are vastly different use cases for AVs andshould be guided by leaders in each space to accelerate progress on all fronts.Promoting desirability of AVs for a broad consumer base requires a universaldesign lens, considering all types of citizens in the public realm, not just the few.We should design for extreme users now to achieve a better model for all inthe near-, medium-, and long-term.Get creative with emerging business models Take this opportunity to evaluate the pros and cons of our current economic modelfor transportation, de-emphasize inefficient models, incentivize environmentallysustainable behaviour, and introduce social business models.Collaborate across public and private sectors to plan, design, anddeploy supporting infrastructure investments The face of our cities may stay relatively similar or change completely. Whetherit’s a small tweak to current infrastructure or a complete overhaul of the skinof our cities, multi-sectoral investment is needed to ensure interoperability, quality,and performance of space. In our excitement and focus around the technology,we can’t forget about trees, cyclists, and people.17Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
3. Business models: Elevate social use casesand efficient transportation models.The ChallengeThe dominant mobility system (pre-AV) is already starting to be disrupted by theAV mobility system. However, the first wave of AVs focuses primarily on commercialmodels like personal use and ride-hailing services. The commercial wave is ledby private technology and automotive companies. Private companies have differentinterests than institutionalized public services, in that the latter are chargedwith ensuring public good, system operation, and urban form, while the privatesector is beholden to driving shareholder value.36 Champions of social usecases for automated vehicles, like cities and civil society organizations, are laggingbehind in their investment, design, and deployment of automated vehicles.TimeWe are here18SocialAV Mobility SystemCitiesCivil societyCommercialAV Mobility SystemPrivate tech &auto companiesDominant (pre-AV)Mobility SystemFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
3. Business models: Elevate social use casesand efficient transportation models.The ChallengeThe tension among profitability, equity, and system efficiency proves challengingwhen seeding new technologies at the systems design level. Affordable, accessible,and equitable mobility is a fundamental design principle to guide AV adoption,37but the delivery of this promise is more difficult in practice.Commercial ventures naturally prioritize revenue growth to remain viable in market.As a result, social benefit and efficiency gains for the transportation system overall areoften deprioritized by companies against more attractive and competitive economicoptions for the company in the near-term. Conversely, the public sector seeks to prioritizepublic interest, sometimes at the expense of efficient solutions. In an automobile marketdriven by private sector interests and public interest regulations, it will be difficultto gain momentum for models that deliver on all three promises of profitable, efficient,and equitable services without public sector intervention.EfficientProfitableEquitableA key insight that surfaced from our co-design workshop suggests that if we rely oncommercial models to pioneer the delivery of AV services for all citizens, many segmentsof the population will get left behind and the cost to government will be high. Forexample, one fear for the future of mobility is that rural communities and vulnerablepopulations will not be served in the pursuit of profitable and efficient transportationmodels. In that future, we would lose the efficacy of mobility all together, creatinga system for the wealthy, urban, and able.19Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
3. Business models: Elevate social use casesand efficient transportation models.What Can Be Prototyped?CommercialAV Mobility SystemPrivate tech & autocompaniesAccelerate the design and deployment of social use cases for AVs Develop incentives and creative partnership models to activate the socialAV mobility system at an equal pace to the commercial AV mobilitysystem. The social AV mobility system includes but is not limited to usecases that support public transportation, health, wellness, social servicedelivery, and education. Flex market power in support of social enterprise. Explore creative purchasing,consumer engagement, and network effects that elevate social businessesand expand their market share. Commit mixed public and private R&D investment to early pilots of socialuse cases for AVs.CitiesCivil SocietyDecelerate commercial use cases for AVs with strong negative externalities Scan and study commercial delivery models with a critical lens, understandingnegative externalities with the following lenses: microeconomics, macroeconomics,consumer behaviour, environment, universal access, and health and wellness. Work across design and engineering communities to find and activate commerciallyviable alternatives to consumers behaviours and economic models producingnegative externalities.SocialAV Mobility SystemWe are hereTime20Framing the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
3. Business models: Elevate social use casesand efficient transportation models.What Can Be Prototyped?Prioritize profitable efficient equitable business models Innovation teams that want to bring AVs to market at scale should invest timein exploring business models that are profitable, equitable, and efficient.What modalities get people from point A to point B in the least amount of timewith the least amount of waste? Identify and quantify positive and negative externalities of emerging businessmodels and capture externalities through pricing structures that align privateand public value creation, ensuring an efficient, equitable and fair market.Case StudyIKEA is a great example of achieving revenue growth while balancing social benefit.In FY 2017, IKEA generated 2.5 billion euros in net profit, offering 9,500 productsat various price points and accessible locations, all while internally working to eliminatewaste across operations through the most efficient use of resources.3821EfficientProfitableEquitableFraming the Automated Vehicle Landscape MaRS Solutions Lab
4. Design streets with all forms of mobility in mind.The ChallengeAs the population in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) increases andthe economy grows, there is an overall increase in travel demand (i.e., more carson the road travelling further distances with the same infrastructure), leading to majorcongestion. Parking, stopping and construction demands, road capacity, non-optimizedtraffic signals, and collisions or unexpected traffic incidents all add to existingcongestion.39 If not deployed thoughtfully, AVs could add to the problem. Travellingin single-rider on-demand cars will be easier, more convenient, and potentially cheaper,adding more vehicles to the road and creating more pick-up and drop-off congestionfrom ride-hailing. Congestion costs the average household 125 according to theToronto Region Board of Trade.40 Cost of congestion to the regional economy is valued at over 6 billionper year and is projected to increase to 15 billion by 2031.41 Extra travel time for the average commuter at peak hours is 34 minutes.42 Several US cities have concluded that the demand of ride-hailingservices has contributed to a substantial increase in vehicle kilometrestravelled, leading to increased congestion in urban cores.4322The StreetCurrent street designproves difficult forAVs to navigate dueto unpredictablemovements acrossmany modes of transitvying for lane space.AV street navigation isespecially problematicduring testing periodsfor both driver-assistedmodels and fullyautomated models.Read more aboutthe City of Toronto’sComplete StreetsPlan.44The CurbThe war over curbsidereal estate is aconfounding factorfor congestion.With rapidly increasingdemands for this spacecreated by emergingbusiness models likeUber’s door-to-doorride-hailing services, thecurb will be highlycontested eve
sold — including automated vehicles — will be connected by multiple means. There are a variety of estimates as to when Level 4 and 5 automated vehicles will begin to operate on public roadways, ranging from the early- to mid-2020s to the mid-2030s and beyond. This transition period from human drivers to fully automated vehicles may present
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