Indonesia Automotive Industry Outlook 2020 - Ipsos
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ININDONESIA’S AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRYFebruary 2016 1
Executive Summary Over the next five years the passenger vehicle segment will remain very attractive, while growth ofthe commercial vehicle segment will be slower– Passenger vehicle (PV) growth is estimated at CAGR 6.8% to 2020– Motorcycle (MC) growth is estimated at CAGR 4.8% to 2020– Truck growth is estimated at CAGR 3.5% to 2020– Bus growth is estimated at CAGR 1.9% to 2020 Greater Jakarta will remain the key region driving PV and CV growth, while demand from mediumand smaller-sized cities is expected to increase over the next decade In the PV segment, the lo- cost green car segment (LCGC) is expected to experience the fastestgrowth at CAGR 8.1% to 2020 In the truck segment, the gasoline light-duty truck segment (GLDT) is expected to experience thefastest growth at CAGR 4.6% to 2020 In the bus segment, the medium-duty bus segment (MDB) is expected to experience the fastestgrowth at CAGR 3.2% to 2020automotive.bc@ipsos.com2
Three Main Implications for New Market Entrants1 Competitive Landscape2 Localization Impact3 Geographical LandscapeJapanese OEM brandsdominate the market Long history in the market Comprehensive portfolio Extensive dealershipnetworks High brand awarenessGovernment preference forOEMs to increase localproduction Local content targets forparts production Policies supporting highlocal content modelsDemand spread across vastcountry Top four cities account foronly 26% of total PVpopulation Logistic challenges toensure distribution andservice coverageDevelop differentiated andfocused value proposition totarget specific consumersegmentsCarefully review andunderstand relevance ofgovernment policy tomarket entry strategyInclude distribution andservice implications whenprioritizing cities and regionsfor market entryautomotive.bc@ipsos.com3
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ECONOMIC OVERVIEWWith GDP forecasted to reach USD 1.3 trillion in 2020, large urban centers will emergedriving a more balanced growth and providing new opportunitiesNominal GDP Development*Key Cities at a GlanceUnit: USD billion**City Level GDP 2014*CAGR7.8%1,307CAGR913889Unit: USD billion**Unit: Million people114.310.129.5-0.9%City Level Population MakassarBandung20132014 2015e5JakartaSurabaya2020f Java, with half of the Indonesian population, will remain the economic and political center of Indonesia, accounting for overhalf of the GDP output. With a depreciation of over 10% in 2015, stabilizing the currency will be vital for the Government to ensure growth.Source: BPS; IMF*GDP is calculated using current price** USD exchange rate: 1USD IDR 11.850automotive.bc@ipsos.com
CONSUMER DEVELOPMENTContinued urbanization and the addition of 21 million new consumers will drive overallconsumption and the demand for passenger vehicles and motorcyclesUrbanization LevelUnit: Population in MillionsUnit: Population in lassAffluentconsumingclass57%2020f88 2271.143%53%Consuming Class Population*Massconsumingclass 2302256432015e2020fComments Urbanization could reach 70% by2030, which will require significantinfrastructure development and otherinvestment to support growth of thesmaller cities that will integrate thenew urban citizens. With a share of roughly 30% of totalpopulation, smaller cities, defined ashaving a population between 150,000and two million inhabitants, areexpected to be able to grow at anestimated 6-9% annually. The growing working-age populationwill play a key role in driving newconsumption. Ensuring the economic growth ismore evenly distributed across thecountry will be a key challenge overthe coming years.*Source: McKinsey, The archipelago economy: unleashing Indonesia's potential, Ipsos AnalysisNote: Consuming class is defined as individuals with a net income of above USD3,600 per annumat 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP)automotive.bc@ipsos.com6
PASSENGER VEHICLE MARKET OVERVIEWFor OEMs assessing market entry opportunities, the MPV and LCGC* segments areexpected to remain the highest volume and growth segments through to 2020PV Population 2013-2020PV New Sales by Segment 2013-2020Unit: Million UnitsUnit: Thousand 21723424416522122101792013201420151885162020f MPVs and SUVs are popular due to their larger seating capacity, which are viewed as more suitable for Indonesian families. Declining popularity of sedan cars is partly due to the higher luxury tax imposed at 30%, while MPV and LCGC models are onlytaxed at 10% and 0% respectively.*LCGC – Low Cost Green Car**Other car types include hatchbacks and city carsautomotive.bc@ipsos.com7
PASSENGER VEHICLE BRAND SHARETo successfully compete against the dominance of Japanese brands, new entrants mustfocus on brand building and development of distribution and after-sales capabilitiesNew PV Sales by Brand 2015CommentsTotal: 736,664 carsOthers*9%3%3%8%41%15%21%*Other includes Chery, Geely, Tata, Hyundai and KIA The key competitive advantages of Japanese OEMs are:- Localization:- Most Japanese brands have local plants, allowingfor 30% cheaper taxes than CBU units imported- Products and model specifications fit local needs;such as focusing on small engine cars to capitalizeon favorable tax policies for fuel-efficient vehicles- Geographical coverage: A wide-spread distributionnetwork allows for convenient servicing and spareparts availability- Government support: Trade agreements resulting inlower import duties for Japanese companies Recent new entrants have chosen different strategies toenter the market- Chinese brands have struggled with Japanesedominance; Geely and Chery have an insignificantshare of 1%, despite having low priced cars- German brands (Mercedes, BMW, Audi) avoid directcompetition by targeting premium customer segments- Hyundai’s ‘buy-back guarantee’* offer has enabledthem to minimize perception of the poor resale valueof Korean carsautomotive.bc@ipsos.com8
PASSENGER VEHICLE MODELSAs the PV market becomes more mature, providing consumers with a well roundedportfolio will be necessary for OEMs targeting the low- to mid-end segmentNumber of PV Car Models 2010-201510.6%Number of PV Models by Segment 1121Nissan Mitsubishi Total increase in PV models is attributed to the introduction of LCGC and an increase in the number of SUV and sedan models,which have increased by 30% and 10% since 2010 respectively. The number of models available to consumers is expected to increase as competition increases in the LCGC segment and moreOEMs enter the market.*LCGC – Low-Cost Green Car**Other car types include hatchbacks and city carsautomotive.bc@ipsos.com9
DEALERSHIP DISTRIBUTIONWith the highest dealership density, the strong competitive position of the incumbentbrands must be diligently assessed to achieve successful market entry into JakartaEstimated Number of Dealerships in 6121117454533620241135DaihatsuSuzuki20226723Nissan Mitsubishi Astra International, Indonesia’s incumbentautomotive distributor, holds exclusivedealership rights for Toyota and Daihatsu,accounting for over 50% of new car sales To manage Toyota’s network of 300dealerships and 840 spare part shops,Astra cooperates with seven main dealercompanies including Auto 2000, Nasmoco,and PT Hadji Kalla Typical challenges faced by distributorswhen expanding dealership networksinclude:- Long lead time: lengthy bureaucraticand land clearing process- High investment: land purchase fromUSD 230,000 to 2,500,000,construction from USD 110,000 to1,200,000- Concerns over the scale of demand andreturn-on-investment, especially forsetting up networks in smaller citiesautomotive.bc@ipsos.com10
DEEP DIVE – LOW-COST GREEN CAR SEGMENTThe introduction of the LCGC segment in 2013 has been very successful and is expectedto remain a key driver of new PV sales through to 2020LCGC New Sales by Volume 2013-2020Unit: Thousand 0132020fLCGC New Sales by Brand Share 20157%18%19%34%22%Comments The LCGC segment was launched at the end of 2013 and hasexperienced significant growth, today accounting for 20%of total PV new sales. LCGC is an attractive vehicle due to:– Low entry level price. Roughly 17% cheaper than anentry level MPV, LCGC is an affordable alternative as anadditional vehicle for first time car buyers andmotorcycle owners trading up– Easier and cheaper credit financing options are available– Exemption from the luxury tax scheme allowing LCGC tobe sold at a cheaper price– Fuel efficiency, due to its small engine (1,000-1,200cc),the LCGC officially travels at least 20km/L LCGC future trend:– 40% local content requirement to be increased to 80% infive years time– Increased export activity with first exports to thePhilippines in 2014 by PT Astra Daihatsu Motor– JV between GM, Wuling, and SAIC expected to beginproduction of its MPV LCGC in Indonesia in 2017– Other expected investments in LCGC productionautomotive.bc@ipsos.com11
DEEP DIVE – LUXURY VEHICLE SEGMENTWhile the sales of individual luxury vehicle brands fluctuate year-to-year the increasingnumber of high net worth individuals will ensure growth in this segmentHigh Net Worth Population*Number of New Luxury Vehicle Sales 2015**Unit: Thousand PersonsYoY % s Mercedes Benz andBMW lead luxury vehiclesales due to the overallbrand awareness withintheir target segment, aportfolio covering almostall PV segments, inaddition to a fairly wellestablished dealershipnetwork Prestige and comfort arekey attributes forconsumers of luxuryvehicles Ferrari, Aston Martin,and Lamborghini are allpresent in the marketeach with oneauthorized dealer*A High Net Worth Individual is defined as someone with investable assets of US 1 million or more, excluding primary residence, collectibles, consumables, andconsumer durables, Source: Capgemini, RBC 2015 Asia-Pacific Wealth Report** Estimated 2015 salesautomotive.bc@ipsos.com12
PASSENGER VEHICLE SEGMENT PRICE ANALYSISToyota’s ability to maintain its strong position in each vehicle segment isattributed to its lower price points in comparison to other Japanese OEMsMPVSUVLCGCSedanCurrency: 1321,0007,00014,0006,000Vios20,000 In June 2014 the down payment requirements were reduced from a minimum of 30% to 25%. Combined with the relatively stable benchmark interest rate of 7.5% this policy aims to ensure a smooth car sales trend amidthe current economic slowdown*USD average 2015 exchange rate as per 7th December: 1USD IDR 13.366Prices have been rounded to the nearest thousandautomotive.bc@ipsos.com
MOTORCYCLE MARKET OVERVIEWMotorcycles will remain the dominant mode of transport due to readily availablecredit with low down payment requirements as well as being relatively cheap to runMC Population 2013-2020MC New Sales 2013-2020Unit: Million UnitsUnit: Million 0f Down payment requirements were relaxed in 2014 being reduced from 25% to 20% for new MCs purchased with credit. Anentry level MC can cost as little as USD 970, which is affordable for many Indonesians With the growing middle class expected to upgrade to affordable entry level PVs such as LCGC and MPVs, this shift is expectedto provide some challenges to motorcycle growth moving forwardautomotive.bc@ipsos.com
MOTORCYCLE BRAND SHAREYamaha and Honda maintain their dominant position by focusing on functionality andoffer a low purchasing price and maintenance cost to attract price sensitive consumers2015 New MC Sales by BrandTotal: 6,430,543 unitsOthers*2%2%29%68%*Other brands include TVS, Kanzen KawasakiComments Japanese MC brands are able to dominate themarket by offering Indonesian consumers a veryrelevant value proposition- Reasonable prices: MCs are priced to target thelower income customer segment- Wide distribution network: Authorized workshopscover almost all regions of Indonesia ensuringparts availability and servicing convenience- Strong Japanese brand image: Functionality andreliability are the key attributes relevant for MCs- Local manufacturing: Lower production ensurescost competitiveness and design localizationcatering to domestic consumers While the opportunity remains large, other brandshave struggled to capture significant market shareover the past few years- Kawasaki’s product range of sport and off-roadMCs targets the small premium segment- TVS’ lack of distribution coverage and limitedportfolio has not enabled them to gain asignificant share even though they are muchcheaper ( 25% cheaper than Honda and Yamaha)automotive.bc@ipsos.com15
PASSENGER VEHICLE AND MOTORCYCLE POPULATIONWith a growing middle class and low PV ownership, Indonesia is a very attractive andcomplex market with well entrenched incumbent brands dominating the landscapeMedan - 2014 Ownership per 1,000 PopulationJakarta - 2014 Ownership per 1,000 PopulationCAGR 11-14MCPV40191CAGR ya16BandungBandung - 2014 Ownership per 1,000 PopulationSurabaya - 2014 Ownership per 1,000 PopulationCAGR 11-14MCPV32881CAGR com
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ECONOMIC OVERVIEWGovernment reforms to increase the attractiveness of Indonesia as an FDI destination areexpected to primarily benefit the manufacturing, construction, and hospitality sectorsForeign Direct Investment 2012-2015Unit: Billion USD**GDP Contribution by Industry 2014*Total: 245.5 Billion USD**CAGR 2015-202025.5%Manufacturing and AutomotiveCAGR9.5%Trading, Hospitality18.0%Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry,and l n/Logistics20112012201320142015ePublic Utility3.9%0.8%5.9%4.8% Reforms implemented in 2015 to meet desired economic growth primarily focus on deregulation such as:– Time required to fulfill procedures for investors to receive tax incentives to be less than 28 days, previously up to one year– Removal of VAT on import of components and raw materials for transportation means produced in Indonesia,*GDP presented is at 2000 constant price– Relaxation of negative investment list for specific sectors** USD exchange rate: 1USD IDR 11.850automotive.bc@ipsos.com
TRUCK MARKET OVERVIEWGasoline light-duty trucks are expected to be the key growth segment in the coming fiveyears as the need for efficient inner city logistics increasesTruck Population 2013-2020New Truck Sales by Segment 2013-2020Unit: Million UnitsUnit: Thousand 3201420153.0%3.420152020f2020f Fluctuation in truck sales is primarily driven by the ever-changing business landscape (e.g., mining sector, logistical needs) thatpredominantly drives truck demand in the country Gasoline light-duty truck is the most popular truck type in Indonesia due to its versatility for the ever-growing small businessowner segmentautomotive.bc@ipsos.com19
TRUCK BRAND SHAREJapanese brands dominate the commercial vehicle market with their strong dealershipfootprint and spare parts availability, however competition by segment varies greatlyNew Truck Sales by Brand 2015CommentsTotal: 260,850 TrucksOther*7%5%7%33%23%25%*Other truck brands include Volvo, Renault, Isuzu, and UD Trucks Mitsubishi has the highest market share due totheir extensive portfolio from DLDTs to HDTs Suzuki and Daihatsu specialize only in GLDTs andhave a significant competitive advantage in thissegment European brands such as Volvo and Renault facetwo key challenges in the market:- Price – Japanese brands are cheaper. They aremore affordable to cost-conscious individualtruck owners as well as fleet owners- Distribution network – Japanese brands have awidely established distribution and servicenetwork Despite the advantages of Japanese brands, one ofthe significant strengths of European brands is thegenerally higher horsepower that allows moregoods to be carried Tata is actively seeking to enhance its position inIndonesia’s commercial vehicle market as can beseen by the company showcasing 18 truck modelsin the country’s biggest automotive show earlierthis year (Gaikindo Indonesia International AutoShow 2015)automotive.bc@ipsos.com20
LIGHT DUTY TRUCK PRICE ASSESSMENTThe initial lower price of GLDTs is driving their popularity especially for transportation ofgoods within big cities where higher engine power is not perceived as criticalDLDTGLDTCommentsCurrency: USD*22,00011,00010,000Gran Max16,000Hilux9,000Carry12,000L3009,5007,000 GLDTs are popular among small business owners(owner operators, e.g., retail shop owners) whogenerally prefer more affordable and compactcommercial vehicles DLDTs are still relevant for commercial vehicle fleetowners (e.g., logistics companies) as these operatorsunderstand the overall cost benefit of DLDTscompared to GLDTs, specifically:– DLDTs have up to 30% better fuel economy– DLDTs are generally heavier and are built forhauling heavier loads providing operators moreflexibility– Lower frequency of repair and maintenancerequirements leads to perceived lower costs– DLDTs are perceived as more versatile with alonger overall operating time span Despite selling at 30% cheaper than Japanesebrands, Tata Motors low brand awareness and smalldistribution network is limiting its success.*USD average 2015 exchange rate as per 7th December: 1USD IDR 13,366Prices have been rounded to the nearest thousandautomotive.bc@ipsos.com21
BUS MARKET OVERVIEWThe bus segment is expected to grow, albeit slowly, as local governments developpublic transportation systems and demand from the tourism industry increasesBus Population 2013-2020New Bus Sales by Segment 2013-2020Unit: Thousand UnitsUnit: Hundred .6%6567686118MDB288288LDBMini 1189328241112342420132014 The government has identified tourism as a key sector for development, which should lead to more demand for buses,specifically for MDBs with higher seating capacity Many fleet companies are currently limiting their investments in new buses and prefer to maintain older buses as they wait andsee if the economy will improve and specifically how demand for transportation services will developautomotive.bc@ipsos.com22
BUS BRAND SHAREThe bus segment is currently still very concentrated, however in the past years successfulmarket entrants have been able to start gaining a foothold in the market2015 New Bus Sales by BrandCommentsTotal: 6,144 BusesOther*13%4%37%21%23% Hino leads the bus segment through numerous means:– One of the first bus players in Indonesia, enteringthe market in 1983 and today with an extensivedealership and service network across Indonesia– Offers a wide range of durable LDB and MDBs tomeet different customer needs at more affordableprices than its European counterparts– Good fuel and lubricant consumption (acceptableoperating costs) Isuzu’s specialization and leading position in the minibus segment is largely due to its higher fuel efficiency,cheaper prices and better brand awareness With Japanese brands dominating the market, recentmarket entrants have focused on specific segments:– Scania offering high-end luxury buses primarily usedin the tourism industry– Zhongtong has entered with a low price strategytargeting fleets requiring affordable buses (e.g.,public transport and tourism)*Other bus brands include Scania, Zhongtong, and Daewooautomotive.bc@ipsos.com23
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SEGMENT GROWTH DRIVERSGovernment and private sector initiatives to drive the development of the economyshould enable stable growth for the automotive industry over the next five yearsImpact2015-2020CommentsRoad and highwaydevelopmentCurrent administration's five-year infrastructure plan is to developnew 2,650 KM non-toll and 1,000 KM toll roads across IndonesiaPort developmentState-owned port operator PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (Pelindo)plans to build 22 ports across Indonesia within the next five yearsat total investment of USD3.57 billion.Government support on Small andMedium Enterprises (SMEs) in IndonesiaIncreased support for SMEs through advisory services provided byfinancing firms and regulations by Bank Indonesia in 2012, where20% of banks’ loan portfolios should be lent to SMEs by e Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan, and ChinaOEMs from free-trade areas enjoy cost reductions through nolevies and low tariffs, allowing vehicles and parts to be importedat a lower cost, which ultimately allows price reductions of 2050%Ease of down payment requirementsDown payment requirements reduced from 30% to 25% for allvehicles purchased on creditForeign Direct Investment GrowthFDI in 2015 was concentrated in the manufacturing and miningsector, which accounted for 55% of total FDI.LOW24HIGHautomotive.bc@ipsos.com
BUS AND TRUCK POPULATIONGreater Jakarta is expected to drive overall demand for buses and trucks, while demandfrom smaller cities is dependent on more evenly distributed economic developmentPalembang - 2014 Truck and Bus PopulationMakassar - 2014 Truck and Bus PopulationUnit: ThousandUnit: ThousandTruckBusCAGR 11-1439.41.711.9%Truck7.0%BusCAGR abayaGreater Jakarta - 2014 Truck and Bus PopulationSurabaya - 2014 Truck and Bus PopulationUnit: ThousandUnit: ThousandTruckBusCAGR 11-14389.315.49.5%Truck8.8%BusCAGR 11-1459.21.310.5%7.5%automotive.bc@ipsos.com
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Authors of this PaperDouglas CassidyHead of ConsultingIndonesiaTirto UtomoConsultantIndonesiaBrenda KarnadiAssociate ConsultantIndonesiaIndustry focus:Automotive OEMConstruction vehiclesVehicle PartsAutomotive LubricantsIndustry focus:AutomotiveBankingAsset ManagementIndustry focus:AutomotiveConstructionFinanceIndustry focus:AutomotiveFinancePh: 852 2839 0647E: markus.scherer@ipsos.comPh: 6221 527 7701E: douglas.cassidy@ipsos.comPh: 6221 527 7701E: indonesia.bc@ipsos.comPh: 6221 527 7701E: otive.bc@ipsos.comABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTINGMarkus SchererGlobal AutomotiveSector Leader29
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automotive.bc@ipsos.com 5 Unit: USD billion** 114.3 29.5 1.512.8 2.5 11.4 7.5 5.8 10.1 2.8 2.2 1.6 City Level GDP 2014* City Level Population 2014 Java, with half of the Indonesian population, will remain the economic and political center of Indonesia, accounting for over half of the GDP output.
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