Global Ecommerce Forecast

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Global EcommerceForecastAs 2-Year Boom Subsides, Plenty of Bright Spots RemainThis year, worldwide ecommerce sales will exceed 5 trillion for the first time. Aftertwo years of unusual growth patterns, we expect worldwide retail and ecommercespending to continue to grow through 2025. This eMarketer Report features ourlatest worldwide, regional, and country-level forecasts for total retail sales, retailecommerce, retail mcommerce, and digital buyers.presented by

Dear eMarketer Reader,eMarketer is pleased to make this report, Global Ecommerce Forecast: As 2-YearBoom Subsides, Plenty of Bright Spots Remain, available to our readers.This report covers our latest forecasts for total retail sales, retail ecommerce, retailmcommerce, and digital buyers. We provide a global outlook for retail sales andretail ecommerce sales in 2022 and beyond, reveal which countries and regions willproduce notable ecommerce growth figures—either positive or negative—through2025, and show how many new digital buyers will come online this year (and wherethey can be found).We invite you to learn more about eMarketer’s approach to research and whywe are considered the industry standard by the world’s leading brands, mediacompanies, and agencies.We thank you for your interest in our report and ChannelAdvisor for making itpossible to offer it to you today.Best Regards,Nancy Taffera-SantosNancy Taffera-SantosSVP, Media Solutions & Strategy, eMarketereMarketer, Inc.11 Times Square, Floor 14New York, NY 10036www.emarketer.comnancyts@emarketer.com

Global Ecommerce Forecast 2022: As 2-Year Boom Subsides, Plenty ofBright Spots RemainWorldwide retail and retail ecommerce spending is expected to stabilize in 2022, after two years of unpredictablecircumstances and unusual growth patterns. Even in a slower-growth environment, total new spending will be enormous.3 KEY QUESTIONS THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER1 What is the global outlook for retail sales and retailecommerce sales in 2022 and beyond?Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2020-2025trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales 7.391 6.767 6.1512 Which countries and regions will produce notableecommerce growth figures—either positive ornegative—for this year and through 2025? 5.542 4.938 4.2483 How many new digital buyers will come online this year,and where can they be found?26.4%19.0%WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest worldwide, regional,and country-level forecasts for total retail sales, retailecommerce, retail mcommerce, and digital buyers.17.9%16.3%20202021Retail ecommerce 2320242025% change% of total retail salesNote: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as billpay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272408eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comKEY STAT: This year, worldwide ecommerce sales willexceed 5 trillion for the first time, accounting for more thana fifth of overall retail sales. Despite slowing growth, totalspending will surge past 7 trillion by 2025.Contents3Global Ecommerce Forecast 2022: As 2-Year BoomSubsides, Plenty of Bright Spots Remain4Key Points4What Are the Biggest Stories for Retail EcommerceComing Out of 2021, and What Will Happen in 2022?8Which Trends Will Stand Out Among Countries andRegions in 2022?11 Where Can Marketers Find New Digital Buyers in 2022and Beyond?15 Editorial and Production ContributorsPRESENTED BY:Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved.Page 3

Key Points digital download sales (movies, music, content, etc.); consumerto-consumer (C2C) platform sales (eBay, auction sites, etc.).Ecommerce growth is about to slow considerably,but total new spending will still be huge. Worldwidedigital sales will grow 12.2% this year, slow by recentstandards. But that will still amount to 603.68 billionmore spending than last year, one of the largestleaps ever.Rumors of the demise of brick-and-mortar weregreatly exaggerated. Non-ecommerce retail salesrebounded far more quickly than expected in 2021 andexceeded pre-pandemic levels two years earlier thanwe originally projected. Ecommerce will still grow fasterthan brick-and-mortar going forward, but not by nearlyas much as in previous years. Emerging economies will reclaim their positions assome of the fastest-growing ecommerce markets.During the early stages of the pandemic, advancedeconomies and developing countries both saw standoutgrowth in digital sales. This year, markets in Asia-Pacificand Latin America will make up most of the top 10fastest-growing countries. New digital buyer growth will slow. Some 2.56 billionpeople worldwide will buy something online this year,but growth will be only 3.4%—the slowest increaseever. New buyers will mostly come from India, Indonesia,Brazil, and a handful of other large emerging markets.Behind the NumbersOur forecasts for retail and ecommerce sales are updated ona biannual basis in order to continually incorporate the latestchanges and developments in the global marketplace. Ourglobal forecast is based upon the analysis of 7,294 data pointsfrom 637 sources, including estimates from third-party researchsources, retail industry sources, government releases coveringmacro-level economic conditions, and incorporates retailecommerce sales data and revenues as reported by major onlineretailers. We also incorporate relevant consumer buying trendsand mobile device adoption, which play a large role in the uptakeof ecommerce shopping.We include the following consumer categories in ourdefinition of retail ecommerce sales:Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales; electronicsand appliance sales; building material and garden equipmentsales; food and beverage sales; health and personal caresales; gasoline sales; clothing and clothing accessories sales;sporting goods, hobby, book and physical music sales; generalmerchandise sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e.,pure-play ecommerce platform sales, mail-order sales, etc.);PRESENTED BY:Retail ecommerce sales include the sale of products andrelated services ordered using the internet, regardless offulfillment method.We exclude the following consumer categories from ourdefinition of retail ecommerce sales:Food services and drinking place sales (i.e., restaurant sales,restaurant delivery ordered online); travel sales; event ticketsales; payments, such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers;gambling and other vice good sales.Our complete estimates for global retail ecommerce can befound in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet.What Are the Biggest Stories forRetail Ecommerce Coming Outof 2021, and What Will Happenin 2022?Boomtimes for worldwide ecommerce spending maybe coming to an end, but the numbers still look prettydarn good. Global growth in retail ecommerce sales willdecline to 12.2% this year—less than half the averageover the past decade—but solid low double-digitgrowth rates will endure for the next several years. Thisslower growth rate will still amount to over half a trillionnew ecommerce dollars every year.Until last year, worldwide ecommerce spending growthhad exceeded 20% every year since we began trackingit in 2011. In 2020, the pandemic paused what would havebeen an organic slowdown, and public health conditionsin many countries boosted the ecommerce growth cycle.Amazingly, growth actually accelerated in numerousmarkets, despite recessionary economic conditions.2020’s surge in ecommerce bled into 2021 just as weprojected, but growth still dipped to 16.3% last year(we had forecast 16.8% in May 2021). This year, weanticipate growth rates in most countries will be lower thanthe worldwide rate from last year. Nonetheless, spendingwill increase in every single country, and retail’s digitaltransformation will march on.Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved.Page 4

Total worldwide ecommerce spending will reach 5.542 trillion this year, up from 4.938 trillion lastyear. After crossing the 5 trillion mark in 2022, totalspending will zoom past 6 trillion in 2023 and surpass 7 trillion by 2025.Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2020-2025trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales 7.391 6.767 6.151 5.542 Brick-and-mortar had a much stronger year in 2021than anticipated. Total worldwide retail spendingincreased by 9.7% last year—more than expected—largely due to gains in brick-and-mortar retail. 4.938 4.24826.4%19.0%Growth in mcommerce’s share of ecommerceis starting to slow. This year, 65.7% of worldwideecommerce will be mcommerce. That figure will tick uponly slightly going forward.17.9%16.3%20202021Retail ecommerce salesEcommerce Growth Slows, but NewSpending Will Still Be HugeDigital buyers around the world will spend 603.68 billion more on ecommerce in 2022 than theydid in 2021. That’s a larger gain than any seen in the yearsbetween 2011 and 2019, despite the fact that we anticipatea much lower growth rate this year (12.2%) than any seen inthat period.By 2025, digital shoppers will spend 7.391 trilliononline. To put that in context, 10 years ago, total worldwideretail spending amounted to just a little over 16 trillion.PRESENTED 20242025% change% of total retail salesNote: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as billpay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272408eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comEcommerce spending growth will inch down in thecoming years, but it will still grow faster than overallretail. The pandemic drove an enormous uptick inecommerce’s share of total retail spending around the world.But from now on, that upward trend will proceed moreslowly, due in part to in-store retail’s rapid bounce back. Ecommerce will account for more than 20% of totalglobal retail this year, a first for the channel. However, this figure is distorted by a handful of bigcountries that skew heavily digital—particularly China.In most markets, ecommerce’s share is less than 15% ofall retail spending.Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved.Page 5

PRESENTED BY:Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 6

In 2021, the growth gap in spending between worldwidebrick-and-mortar and ecommerce was only 8.1 percentagepoints—the smallest ever—compared with a gap of 33.9percentage points in 2020. Going forward, the gap will bemore akin to the 2021 level.Given the resilience of in-store shopping, ecommerce’srise to dominance will take longer than expected. Andthe impending death of brick-and-mortar has likely beengreatly exaggerated. We now project that brick-and-mortar will growbetween 2.6% and 3.4% for the remainder of ourforecast, out to 2025. Brick-and-mortar will see more new spendingthis year than ecommerce ( 702.17 billion versus 603.68 billion), despite its slower growth rate.Retail Sales Growth Worldwide, by Region,2020-2022% change2020202120223.3%15.2%2.5%Western Europe-2.3%7.2%2.6%Spotlight on Total Retail: Brick-andMortar Returns with a VengeanceNorth AmericaAsia-Pacific-4.6%6.7%5.9%In May 2021, we predicted total retail sales around the worldfor that year would increase by 6.0% to just over 25 trillion,a significant comeback from 2020’s lows.Middle East & Africa-6.0%15.2%16.1%Central & Eastern Europe-6.3%4.8%4.7%Southeast Asia*-7.2%2.5%9.0%-11.9%12.2%5.5%Instead, the world produced a 9.7% growth rate, whichkicked total retail spending up to 26.031 trillion—farexceeding our original expectations.Worldwide-2.9%9.7%5.0%Hey, what’s an extra trillion here and there?272448Retail Sales Worldwide, 2020-2025trillions and % change 26.031 27.338 28.641 30.031 31.271Latin AmericaNote: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers,food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice good sales; *Southeast Asiais a subset of Asia-Pacific and the Southeast Asia figures are also included in theAsia-Pacific totalsSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comThis rollercoaster pattern in retail sales was nearlyuniversal around the world. Retail sales went negative in2020 almost everywhere; then they rebounded to heightsnot seen in years almost everywhere in 2021; and theywill return to previously “normal” levels almost everywherein 2022. 23.737Mcommerce’s Share of Ecommerce IsStill Growing, but Very Slowly NowThis is due to two key factors:9.7%20200-2.9%Retail sales20215.0%4.8%4.9%4.1%2022202320242025% changeNote: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers,food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272409eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comIn-store sales rebounded by 8.2% last year, to 21.094 trillion, more than was spent in 2019. Pent-updemand from in-person shoppers accelerated the recovery bytwo full years. Remarkably, this quick transition back to storesdid not constrain shoppers from matching our ecommercegrowth expectations. Wallets were wide open in 2021.PRESENTED BY:1 Digital users in North America and Europe have reacheda comfort level with shopping and buying via mobile, butmore often than not, they still prefer their larger-screencomputers to finalize transactions. This dynamic is stillevolving, but slower than before.2 In emerging markets, internet access is rapidlyapproaching ubiquity, and smartphones have alreadybecome common, so there are fewer new users everyyear who start their ecommerce journeys via mobile.(Digital buyer growth in Asia-Pacific will be just 3.8%this year, for instance.)Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved.Page 7

Retail Mcommerce Sales Worldwide, 2020-2025trillions, % change, % of total ecommerce sales, % oftotal retail sales2020Retail mcommerce sales20252024202320222021 2.721 3.203 3.643 4.089 4.541 4.999Retail Mcommerce Sales Share Worldwide, byRegion, 2022% of total retail ecommerce salesAsia-Pacific% change29.2%17.7%13.7%12.3%11.1%10.1%Middle East & Africa% of total ecommerce sales64.1%64.9%65.7%66.5%67.1%67.6%Southeast Asia*% of total retail sales11.5%12.3%13.3%14.3%15.1%16.0%Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as billpay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272444eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comMomentum is still marginally favorable to mcommerce, butconsumer behavior is settling in, and change will come moreincrementally going forward.Retail Ecommerce vs. Retail Mcommerce vs. TotalRetail Growth Worldwide, 2020-2025% change29.2%79.9%66.4%64.6%Latin America59.4%Western Europe46.8%Central & Eastern Europe40.3%North America40.1%Worldwide65.7%Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such asbill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good sales; *Southeast Asia is a subset of Asia-Pacific and the Southeast Asia figuresare also included in the Asia-Pacific totalsSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272443eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comChina once again skews the global figures with itsprojected 83.4% share for mcommerce this year. SinceChina will account for 50.2% of all ecommerce spending in2022, its metrics heavily weight the worldwide 0242025-2.9%Retail mcommerceRetail ecommerceTotalNote: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as billpay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272445Which Trends Will Stand OutAmong Countries and Regionsin 2022?This year, most countries will see ecommerce growthcome back to earth following a two-year surge, with theexception of a few regions and a handful of countries. Ecommerce surged in advanced economies andemerging markets alike in 2020. For most nations,that surge extended into 2021 to at least somedegree. This alignment will now largely split, withadvanced and emerging economies re-diverging in theirgrowth patterns. Regionally, Latin America and Southeast Asia willlead the world in growth. They will be the only tworegions to see ecommerce sales growth rates north of20% this year. These regions are still seeing increasesin numbers of digital buyers and are home to expandingmiddle classes.eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comMcommerce growth rates have decelerated to nearparity with overall ecommerce growth rates. By nextyear, mcommerce will claim about two-thirds of worldwideecommerce spending, and it may settle in at not too muchhigher than that over the long term.PRESENTED BY:Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 8

Asia-Pacific countries will see the fastestecommerce sales growth. The Philippines, India, andIndonesia will set the global pace in 2022. Vietnam,Malaysia, and Thailand will also crack the top 10. In the ecommerce penetration rankings, the resultsare diverse. Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are climbing.China, the UK, and South Korea will continue to lead. In North America, US spending is incrediblyresilient, and we forecast very little drop-off ingrowth over the next few years. In the Middle East and Africa, many markets are stillin the early stages of emergence, so their high-growthphases will outlast the pandemic era. Western Europe will see a 6.1% ecommerce growthrate this year—its lowest ever, and the first time anyregion anywhere will experience a single-digit growthrate. This can mainly be attributed to how much growthwas pulled forward over the previous two years. MostWestern European countries saw all-time highs in 2020,and for many, 2021 was an abnormally high-growthyear as well. We project those booms will leave the tanksomewhat dry in 2022.All Regions Are Set to Slow Down, butSome More than OthersThe Asia-Pacific region overall will post one ofthe slowest ecommerce growth rates in the worldthis year, at 11.8%. That’s the slowest-ever expansionin digital spending in the region, with China almostentirely responsible.China’s ecommerce sales will grow by 11.9% this year, itsslowest-ever rate. For most of the past decade, China sawannual growth rates in the 40% range. But China’s digitaltransformation is rapidly reaching a point of maturation, andthe standout growth figures of yesteryear are long gone.Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, by Region,2022billionsAsia-Pacific 3,323.19North America 1,144.99Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth Worldwide, byRegion, 2022% changeWestern EuropeSoutheast Asia*Central & Eastern Europe 141.9020.6%Latin America20.4%Middle East & Africa17.0%Central & Eastern Europe16.1%North America15.5%Asia-PacificWestern EuropeWorldwide Latin America 167.81Southeast Asia* 89.67Middle East & Africa 69.39Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such asbill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good sales; *Southeast Asia is a subset of Asia-Pacific and the Southeast Asia figuresare also included in the Asia-Pacific totalsSource: eMarketer, Jan 202211.8%6.1%12.2%Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such asbill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good sales; *Southeast Asia is a subset of Asia-Pacific and the Southeast Asia figuresare also included in the Asia-Pacific totalsSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272410 694.59eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comLatin America will be in the No. 2 spot forecommerce sales growth. Even a relatively largedrop-off in 2022 will leave the region almost in firstplace. A 15 percentage-point decline in growth stillleaves the region well ahead of most others this year.PRESENTED BY:272442eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comAsia-Pacific’s ranking as the No. 1 region in retail ecommercesales is assured by China—just as North America’s No. 2spot is by the US. Western Europe’s wealth locks it in thirdplace. Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, andSoutheast Asia will jostle for the next few spots on the list inthe coming decades.Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 9

Countries in Emerging MarketsWill See the Fastest EcommerceSales Growth This year, high-growth emerging markets will reassertcontrol of the top 10 for ecommerce sales growth,displacing more established markets like Canada, Singapore,the Netherlands, and Russia. Among the advancedeconomies, only the US will sneak in, at No. 10.Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail EcommerceSales, 2022billions and % changeTop 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail EcommerceSales Growth, 2022% change1. Philippines25.9%The story in Asia-Pacific will soon center on India andSoutheast Asia, where growth will remain robust forthe rest of our forecast period.2022% change1. China 2,784.7411.9%2. US 1,065.1915.9%3. UK 245.834.8%4. Japan 168.702.7%5. South Korea 142.9213.0%6. Germany 117.857.5%7. France 94.438.5%8. India 83.7525.5%2. India25.5%9. Canada 79.8010.4%3. Indonesia23.0%10. Indonesia 58.0023.0%4. Brazil22.2%5. Vietnam19.0%6. Argentina18.6%7. Malaysia18.3%8. Thailand18.0%9. Mexico18.0%10. US272440eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comFor total retail ecommerce sales, China’s dominance willendure far into the future, and the US and UK will round outthe top three for many years beyond our forecast timeline.15.9%Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such asbill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272411Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as billpay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022Here are several additional trends worth watching: India joined the ecommerce sales top 10 in 2016, andit is already up to eighth place. It will leapfrog Francenext year to reach seventh, and Germany in 2025 toreach sixth. Indonesia bumped out Brazil to reach the top 10this year. Those two markets will compete for 10thplace going forward and will likely trade places severalmore times. Medium-sized South Korea will hold its position in fifthplace for several more years, then leapfrog into fourthplace by 2025, thanks to its embrace of ecommerceover brick-and-mortar. Eventually, India will overtakeboth Japan and South Korea, but that will be far downthe road.eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comOther observations in the data: India and the Philippines will compete for the top spotover the next several years. Not a single market in Western Europe will see anecommerce spending growth rate in the double digitsduring any year for the rest of our forecast, to 2025. Every country we break out in Latin America will growits ecommerce by at least double digits every yearuntil 2025. China and the advanced economies of the Asia-Pacificregion (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand,Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong) will all betrudging along in the single digits by 2024, with many inthe very low single digits.PRESENTED BY:Copyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 10

The Popularity of Ecommerce RemainsGeographically DiverseThis year, ecommerce will account for 20.3% of total globalretail spending. Although this figure is distorted by China(only five countries in the world will exceed a 20% share intheir own right), it is still indicative of a long-term trend.In 2022, ecommerce will have a double-digit share oftotal retail in about 20 major economies around theworld. Most of these markets will end up with ecommerceaccounting for less than 15% of total retail, but the figuresare ticking up almost everywhere.Interestingly, the global heat map for ecommercepenetration is fairly scattered.Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail EcommerceShare of Total Retail Sales, 2022% of total retail sales1. China36.3%3. South Korea20.2%5. Indonesia20.2%6. Norway In 2021, growth was only 4.8% worldwide. This year, the world’s digital buyer base will increase byonly 3.4%. Only 85.5 million new buyers will emerge this year. Bycomparison, in 2020, 258.3 million people becamedigital buyers.With so much growth pulled forward thanks to thepandemic, digital buyer growth will be comparatively slow.19.4%16.1%8. FinlandMarketers are going to have to work harder to expandtheir audience, rather than rely on the easy low-hangingfruit of an automatically expanding base of shoppers.14.6%9. Sweden14.1%10. Canada13.6%Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless ofthe method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such asbill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and othervice good salesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022Digital Buyers Worldwide, 2020-2025billions, % change, and % of populationeMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comEcommerce participation is most popular in NortheastAsia, North America, and in the Nordic countries.Indonesia has also embraced the channel with gusto, farmore than its neighbors. The same can be said of the UK,although in some respects the UK has more in commonwith North America and the Nordics than it does with itscontinental European peers. Last year, the global annual growth rate for new buyersfell below 10% for the first time in a decade, and nowmarketers will no longer be able to rely on hundredsof millions of new first-time digital buyers appearingevery year.32.2%4. Denmark272374Where Can Marketers FindNew Digital Buyers in 2022and Beyond?46.3%2. UK7. USAs recently as five years ago, only 10.3% of global retailsales came via ecommerce. That figure will have morethan doubled by next year, although the pace of increase willdecline from now on.Beyond the top 10, the major markets in Latin Americaare rising in the rankings the 20202021Digital buyers2022% change% of populationNote: ages 14 ; internet users who have made at least one purchase via any digital channelduring the calendar year, including online, mobile, and tablet purchasesSource: eMarketer, Jan 2022272446PRESENTED BY:eMarketer InsiderIntelligence.comCopyright 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 11

Asia-Pacific is home to 59.4% of the world’s digital buyers,so even though its growth will be at an all-time low in 2022(3.8%), the region will still produce 55.3 million new buyersthis year.The world will have 2.56 billion digital buyers in 2022: China will have 32.9% of the global total, or843.3 million people. India will have 312.7 million digital buyers (an increaseof more than 100 million compared with just beforethe pandemic). The US will be in third, with 214.1 million, 4.5 millionmore than last year. No other country will have over 100 million digital buyers,but Latin America will collectively have 260.2 million, andWestern Europe will have 252.0 million. (This will be thefirst year that Latin America has more digital buyers thanWestern Europe.)As the world’s digital transformation matures, the rankingsfor digital buyers among countries will increasingly mirror thegeneral rankings for total population. However, that outcomeis not upon us yet, and there are still hot spots for growthand the emergence of new buyers.Where to Find the GrowthIndia, not surprisingly, will account for more of these newbuyers than anywhere else. But Indonesia will produce thefastest growth in the region, and in the world, at 8.8% (for atotal of 81.1 million buyers in-country).Among advanced economies, digital buyer growth will befairly anemic from now on. North America will increase itsbuyer base by just 5.0 million people this year, and WesternEurope will do so by 2.7 million. Japan (0.5% growth) andSouth Korea (0.9% growth) will increase their numberseven more slowly than the wealthy Western countries.For marketers seeking first-time buyers, the mosttechnologically advanced countries present a challengingenvironment. By contrast, even though growth has sloweddramatically in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, they will stillproduce tens of millions of new digital shoppers. Thesebuyers may be easier to reach and more open-minded thanthe sophisticated and distracted digital shoppers in NorthAmerica, Western Europe, and Northeast Asia.Regionally, the Middle East and Africa will be the only partof the world growing its digital buyer base by more than5%. Latin America will come in second, at 4.6%, but LatinAmerica will produce more new buyers than the MiddleEast and Africa (11.5 million versus 5.4 million), thanks to itslarger base.Brazil will pace Latin

pure-play ecommerce platform sales, mail-order sales, etc.); digital download sales (movies, music, content, etc.); consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform sales (eBay, auction sites, etc.). Retail ecommerce sales include the sale of products and related services ordered using the internet, regardless of fulfillment method.

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