New Nature Economy Report II The Future Of Nature And Business

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New Nature Economy Report IIThe Future Of NatureAnd BusinessIn collaboration with AlphaBeta

World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.: 41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: 41 (0)22 786 2744Email: contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2020 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication may bereproduced or transmitted in any form or by anymeans, including photocopying and recording, orby any information storage and retrieval system.

The Future of Nature and Business is published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with AlphaBeta(www.alphabeta.com). It is the second in a series of reports from the New Nature Economy project, the firstbeing Nature Risk Rising that was published in January 2020.About the New Nature Economy Report (NNER) seriesThe series of New Nature Economy Reports (NNER) is being developed under the umbrella of the WorldEconomic Forum’s work on nature, a platform for committed actors to join up ideas and efforts in the run-upto the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP15 – and in support of the related Business forNature agenda. The NNER series aims to make the business and economic case for action.The series will span three reports that focus on the following priorities:1. Make the case for why nature loss is a material risk to business and the economy, including:a. The scale and urgency of the nature crisisb. The potential consequences for society if the crisis remains uncheckedc. The need for business to mainstream nature risk in corporate enterprise risk management2. Provide the insights needed to develop practical roadmaps that address the most important driversof nature loss, and build a nature-positive future, including:a. The most pressing business-related threats to nature, which require urgent individual and collective actionfrom business and other economic actorsb. The key socio-economic transitions needed to tackle the nature crisis; and the potential financial upsidefrom concerted business actionc. The enforceable, supporting and coherent enabling mechanisms that will be needed to catalyse changeat scale3. Scope the market and investment opportunities for nature-based solutions to environmental andhumanitarian challenges:a. Research solutions across the biodiversity, climate mitigation, climate resilience and ocean agendasb. Assess their economic and nature-building potentialc. Identify areas and approaches most relevant for private-sector financeAbout the World Economic ForumThe World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the international organization forpublic-private cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost business, political and other leaders of society toshape global, regional and industry agendas.New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business3

ForewordDominicWaughrayManaging Director,Managing Board,World EconomicForumAkankshaKhatriHead of NatureAction Agenda,World EconomicForumThe Great Acceleration of the world economy overthe last 70 years has brought an unprecedentedincrease in output and human welfare. Humanpopulation grew from 2.5 billion in 1950 to close to8 billion today. At the same time, the average personhas become 4.4 times richer and lives 25 yearslonger than in 1950. Since 1990, the number ofpeople living on less than 1.25 a day has reducedby one-half, and roughly 700 million more peopleentered the mushrooming global middle classes.Yet, the Great Acceleration carried important costs,among which were its profound impacts on naturalsystems, including the degradation and loss of wholespecies and critical ecosystems. These impacts andthe risks they bring to our economic system andwelfare are set out in the first report of this series,Nature Risks Rising, released in January 2020.COVID-19 has brought the Great Acceleration to ascreeching halt. Hundreds of thousands of peoplehave died and entire sectors of the economy havestopped operating. All because a novel zoonoticdisease, possibly triggered by human disturbanceof nature, became a pandemic. As of June 2020,governments and international organizations haveinvested close to 9 trillion to try to prevent themost immediate human and economic impacts.But despite these efforts, the global economy isexpected to contract by 3% in 2020, affecting thejobs and livelihoods of millions of people. Naturerelated risks have precipitated a Great Decelerationand potentially a structural economic crisis. Thespread of a deadly zoonotic virus with no immediatecure was a known risk, of which environmentalscientists had warned. The same scientists havewarned us against returning to “business as usual” inlight of the looming nature crisis. Nature loss brings awhole new set of risks, including potentially deadlierpandemics; we are sleepwalking into a catastrophe ifwe continue to ignore this reality.To pursue the same economic strategy that hasresulted in this situation while hoping for a differentoutcome, would be deeply questionable. A newfuture for nature and humans is needed and one thatcan help accelerate the Great Reset that the world’seconomy and society require. The Future of Natureand Business report lays out in practical terms whatneeds to be done to achieve this new future, bylaying out a pragmatic framework for the industryto lead the transition towards a nature-positiveeconomy. This is a path that can provide a win-winfor nature, people and business. It can unlock anestimated 10 trillion of business opportunities bytransforming the three economic systems that areresponsible for almost 80% of nature loss.Seeking a Great Reset, however, needs toacknowledge the new context in which we live. To besuccessful, this path will need to gain the confidenceand the support of citizens and governments, bydemonstrating its focus on inclusive growth andimproved jobs and livelihoods. Its ability to create395 million jobs in 2030 while pivoting the globaleconomy to be nature-positive is perhaps the singlemost important takeaway for decision-makers.It won’t be easy or straightforward, but a failure toact will be even more painful. We need to commit tothis path and be willing to work together. The WorldEconomic Forum, as the international organization forpublic-private cooperation, pledges to help public,private and civil society stakeholders reset theirrelationship with nature as part of the Great Resetagenda in a way that will be nature-positive, valuecreating and job-rich.New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business4

Preface by the Co-chairs of the Champions for Nature communityCarlosAlvaradoQuesadaPresident ofCosta RicaThe economic, humanitarian and social fall-out fromthe COVID-19 pandemic crisis is far more severe thanthan the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Even withgreat uncertainty, IMF projects the global economy tocontract by 3% in 2020. This shock will mostly affectthe poor, informal and marginalized sections of societyeverywhere. As governments around the world arecreating stimulus packages and reassigning budgetsto fight this unprecedented crisis, it is imperative toalso recognize this opportunity to reset humanity’srelationship with nature.This crisis has reminded us that human and planetarywell-being are intertwined. Nature must be at the heart ofall our efforts and economic incentives aligned to promotethe protection of biodiversity and integrate nature recoverygoals into our business and financial decisions.The human footprint on the planet has had animmense impact on the natural world. Unsustainableconsumption and production patterns have comeat the cost of healthy ecosystems, biodiversity, andhuman resilience.IngerAndersenUnder-SecretaryGeneral of theUnited Nationsand ExecutiveDirector, UNEnvironmentProgrammeAlan JopeChief ExecutiveOfficer, UnileverNature is the foundation of economic growth. Asthe world seeks to build back better, following thedevastating impacts of COVID-19 there are noindividual solutions to the challenges that lie ahead,only global ones. Building a healthier planet is thecollective responsibility of all of us.As we enter a historic decade of action to halt andreverse biodiversity loss by 2030 and address climatechange, businesses have a critical role to play. Theyhave the technology, innovation and resourcesto make the needed shifts towards increasedinvestment in nature and nature-based solutions.The global economy is inextricably linked to thehealth of our planet. How we produce, manufacture,consume and ultimately manage our waste isstraining nature’s ability to cope. COVID-19 hasshown the need to drive greater resilience in ourglobal supply chains, food systems and healthcaredelivery. Whilst there is still uncertainty in how thepandemic will unfold, we must recognise this as anopportunity to accelerate efforts to put nature at thecentre of all decision-making.This report identifies that 80% of biodiversity loss isdriven by three economic sectors: food, land andocean use, extractives and energy, and infrastructureand the built environment. As the dependence ofour economies and businesses on nature is clear,we must identify and mitigate the risks of nature lossAs Co-chair of the Champions for Nature communityand member of the High-Ambition Coalition forNature and People, I welcome the clear transitionpathways provided by this report.Multilateral and multistakeholder cooperation willbe key to realizing the opportunities identified in thisreport across three key socio-economic systems thatcan create USD 10 trillions of global GDP growth and395 million jobs by 2030.Leaders of the world today have a moral andpragmatic imperative to take bold decisionsthat protect, restore and sustainably managethe only planet we have and safeguard it forfuture generations.The work of the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme and partners has shown that therestoration of land to achieve land degradationneutrality by 2030 is cost effective and helpsreduce poverty and inequality. And as we do so,we must call on and empower indigenous people,who have long been deploying the kind of solutionsthe world needs to adopt.COVID-19 responses have shown us that weare capable of listening to science, changingbehaviours and working collectively for a globalsolution. We must embrace these skills andsupport business in re-engineering their businessestowards sustainability. To do so, we will be enabledby the UN Decade for Action on EcosystemRestoration which UNEP is proud to co-lead withnumerous partners. The time to act together fornature is now.from our business operations. There will be no jobsor prosperity on a dead planet!That’s why last month Unilever set out a range ofnew, ambitious commitments and actions to fightclimate change and protect nature, including net zeroemissions for all our products by 2039 to point of saleand a 1 billion Climate and Nature fund for brandsto take meaningful and decisive action. The climatecrisis, nature loss, water scarcity are all interconnectedand we must address them simultaneously to achievea decarbonised, nature-positive world.As Co-Chair of the Champions for Nature communityand supporter of Business for Nature, I welcome thisreport and look forward to working with my peers foran ambitious action agenda for nature.New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business5

ContentsCHAPTERExecutive summary7Nature’s call to action17Towards a naturepositive food, land,and ocean use systemIII28Towards a naturepositive infrastructureand built environmentsystemIII54Towards a naturepositive energy andextractives systemIV73From opportunity toreality: Catalysingaction for a naturepositive economy1 Ecosystem restoration and avoided landand ocean use expansion312 Productive and regenerative agriculture333 Healthy and productive ocean354 Sustainable management of forests365 Planet-compatible consumption386 Transparent and sustainable supply chains401 Compact built environment572 Nature-positive built environment design593 Planet-compatible urban utilities604 Nature as infrastructure625 Nature-positive connecting infrastructure631 Circular and resource efficient models for materials762 Nature-positive metals and minerals extraction783 Sustainable materials supply chains804 Nature-positive energy transition81V92New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYExecutive summaryNature is declining at an unprecedented rate, withnearly 1 million species at risk of extinction becauseof human activity. Earth system scientists havewarned that the Amazon rainforest, the world’scoral reefs and the boreal forest biomes are all fastapproaching the cusp of irreversible tipping pointswith far-reaching effects on the economy, societyand life as we know it. The consequences are justas alarming for business and humanity as they arefor the environment. The first report of the WorldEconomic Forum’s New Nature Economy Report(NNER) series, Nature Risk Rising, highlighted that 44 trillion of economic value generation – over halfthe world’s total GDP – is potentially at risk as aresult of the dependence of business on nature andits services. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapseranked as one of the top five threats humanity willface in the next 10 years in the World EconomicForum’s 2020 Global Risks Report.The window for action is narrowing at an alarmingrate, while the cost of inaction is increasing. Atthe time of writing, the breakout of the COVID-19crisis in early 2020 is tragically impacting the livesof millions and disrupting the livelihoods of billionsof people around the world. Addressing thishumanitarian and health crisis is a clear priority. Andyet the impact of the crisis on livelihoods is alreadyputting additional strain on nature. Governments areredirecting funds away from conservation activitiescausing revenues of parks and nature reserves todry up, and the rising rural poverty and reversemigration from urban areas is bringing additionalpressure on wildlife and ecosystems. As the globalfocus turns from the health crisis to economicrebuilding and recovery, concerns for the health ofthe planet risk being side-lined.This would be a mistake. COVID-19 is a starkreminder of how ignoring biophysical risks canhave catastrophic health and economic impacts atthe global scale. If recovery efforts do not addressthe looming planetary crises – climate change andnature loss – a critical window of opportunity toavoid their worst impact will be irreversibly lost.Decisions on how to deploy the post-COVID crisisstimulus packages will likely shape societies andeconomies for decades, making it imperativeto “build back better” and not return to anunsustainable and dangerous business-as-usualNew Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey findings at a glanceThere is no future for business as usual –we are reaching irreversible tipping points for natureand climate, and over half of the global GDP, 44 trillion, is potentially threatened by nature loss.Fighting climate change is essential but not enoughto address the nature crisis – a fundamentaltransformation is needed across three socioeconomic systems: food, land and ocean use;infrastructure and the built environment; andenergy and extractives.80% of threatened and near-threatened speciesare endangered by the three systems, which areresponsible for the most significant business-relatedpressures to biodiversity; these are also the systemswith the largest opportunity to lead in co-creatingnature-positive pathways.15 systemic transitions with annual businessopportunities worth 10 trillion that could create395 million jobs by 2030 have been identified thattogether can pave the way towards a people- andnature-positive development that will be resilient tofuture shocks.Businesses can take practical actions to turnthese opportunities into reality by working withgovernments and civil society to set the agenda, pushthe transitions forward and accelerate policy reforms. 2.7 trillion per year through to 2030 will beneeded to scale the transitions, including to deploythe technological innovation critical to 80% ofthe business opportunity value identifiedapproach. There is ample evidence that adoptinggreen stimulus measures can generate even moreeffective economic and employment growth andbuild more resilient societies by aligning the globaleconomy with planetary boundaries.The World Economic Forum’s NNER series setout to highlight the materiality of nature lossfor businesses, what transitions are needed tomove towards a nature-positive economy andhow businesses can be part of the solutionpaving the way for new opportunities. Now,more than ever, a dire need for leadership fromall quarters is evident. This report provides apragmatic agenda for business to contributeto the development of practical roadmaps thataddress the most important drivers of nature lossand build a nature-positive future. To successfullyaddress this challenge will require tackling theindirect forces that underly the drivers of natureloss – such as global trade, production andconsumption patterns, governance mechanismsand the values and behaviours of society –something business alone can seldom do. Even aslasting transformational change will often requireenforceable and coherent regulatory and policymechanisms and a shift in societal values, businessleadership can help shape the agenda and movethe goalpost of what is politically possible.Fighting climate change is critical –but not enough – to halt biodiversityloss and safeguard nature.The global assessment report from theIntergovernmental Science-Policy Platform onBiodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)highlighted five main drivers of biodiversity loss:changes in land and sea use; overexploitation oforganisms; climate change; pollution; and invasivealien species. Climate change is currently responsiblefor between 11% and 16% of biodiversity loss.This share is expected only to increase, and it hasthe potential to trigger irreversible biome-scaleecosystem disruptions, making the decarbonizationof the economy essential to limiting longer-termnature loss. Yet, as important and daunting asthe decarbonization of the economy is, it is notenough if the other direct drivers of nature loss arenot concurrently tackled. Businesses, through theiroperations and supply chains, directly impact nature.Whether through changes in land and sea use,overexploitation or pollution, their activities can havelong-lasting harmful consequences for nature. Thesedrivers of biodiversity loss need to be addressedurgently to stop nature loss, and these are ones thisreport mainly focuses on.New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFIGURE E1Together, the threats emerging from the three systems endanger around 80% of thethreatened or near-threatened speciesShare of (near-) threatened species impacted*Food, land and ocean useInfrastructure and thebuilt environmentEnergy and extractives72%7 threatsIn sum, the threesocio-economic systemstogether with climatechange impact 79%29%6 threatsof all (near-)threatened species**18%2 threats* Consistent with methodology adopted by Maxwell et. al. (2016); “threatened” species include those that are critically endangered, vulnerable, and lower risk –conservation dependent. **Due to partial overlap between the species impacted by the three systems, the percentage of species impacted by all systems is smaller thanthe sum of the percentages of the species impacted by each system.SOURCE: IUCN Red List of Threatened Species; AlphaBeta analysisFIGURE E215 transitions in the three socio-economic systems could deliver 10.1 trillion of annualbusiness opportunities and 395 million jobs by 2030Food, land andocean useTotal businessopportunities bysystem in 2030Infrastructure and thebuilt environmentEnergy andextractivesTotal3,5653,01510,1103,530US billions*Total jobs bysystem in 2030Millions19111787395*Based on estimated savings or project market sizing in each area. These represent revenue opportunities that are incremental to business-as-usual scenarios.Where available, the range is estimated based on analysis of multiple sources. Rounded to nearest US 5 billion.SOURCE: Literature review; Market research; Expert interviews; AlphaBeta analysisNew Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAddressing the nature crisis requiresa critical shift towards nature-positivemodels in three key socio-economicsystems: food, land and ocean use;infrastructure and the built environment;and extractives and energy.Analysing biodiversity threats with the highergranularity offered by their classification inthe IUCN Red List, 15 non-climate threats tobiodiversity emerge as the most important forbusiness to engage with, based on three criteria:(1) the importance of the threat to biodiversityloss; (2) the role of business in causing thethreat, and therefore the potential of business toaddress it; and (3) the potential of the threat todisrupt business activities. These 15 biodiversitythreats all relate to three main socio-economicsystems: the food, land and ocean use system;the infrastructure and the built environment system;and the extractives and energy system. Together,these threats endanger around 80% of thetotal threatened and near-threatened speciesidentified by the IUCN Red List (Figure E1).BOX E1Quantifying the new business opportunitiesThe business opportunity figures and associated employment andinvestments presented in this report are estimates of the annual savingsor the revenue upside generated by the major opportunities (those worthat least 15 billion in 2030) in 2030, expressed in 2019 US dollars androunded to the nearest 5 billion. Employment figures are based onregional labour productivity rates, while investment estimates are basedon opportunity-specific case studies.These estimates depict the incremental size of the business opportunitiesin a nature-positive scenario compared to what could be achieved in abusiness-as-usual scenario. These figures are not an attempt to estimatethe full value of the benefits provided by nature but instead focus onfinancial shifts in revenue or profit pools. As a result, carbon sequestrationis priced only for those opportunities where it is positioned as a revenuesource. To reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumerdemand forecasts were revised to incorporate the impact of the crisison GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 as forecasted by the InternationalMonetary Fund.11. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted globalgrowth of 3.3% in 2020 and 3% in 2021. It has now forecasted the global economy to shrinkby 3% in 2020 and grow by 5.8% in 2021. The average global growth rates over the nexttwo years are now 41% of the predicted growth rates that were forecasted previously. Thisadjustment is made to the growth rates of consumer demand–related opportunities (e.g.organic food demand, eco-tourism) for the next two years, and then it is assumed the preCOVID estimates of growth return. Fourteen of the opportunities sized, largely in the food, landand ocean use system, are impacted by these adjustments and are discussed further in theMethodological Note. For further details, see IMF, April 2020, World Economic Outlook, April2020: The Great Lockdown, 0/04/14/weo-april-2020Currently, these systems represent over a third ofthe global economy and provide up to two-thirdsof all jobs. Transitioning these systems to naturepositive models is necessary both to stave off therising risks associated with the loss of nature and tomeet the growing demands of investors and otherstakeholders for business to fulfil a positive role insociety. But a nature-positive model can also unlocksignificant benefits.Responding to the profound social and economiccrisis looming in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemicrequires a reset of how we live, produce and consumeto achieve a resilient, carbon neutral, nature-positiveeconomy and halt biodiversity loss by 2030. This resetneeds both to decouple our well-being from resourceconsumption to reduce the amount of resourceswe need, thereby sparing ecosystems as much aspossible, and to decouple resource extraction fromnegative impact on ecosystems by better sharing withnature what lands and ocean we use.Benefiting from the extensive work of multipleinternational initiatives – including the Food and Land UseCoalition, the Business and Sustainable DevelopmentCommission, the EAT-Lancet Commission, and theInternational Resource Panel – and the long-standingefforts of international organizations, academicresearchers, and think tanks, and backed by ouranalysis and a consultative process spanning academia,business, civil society and governments, this report putsforward 15 priority transitions across the threekey socio-economic systems that can form theblueprint of a multistakeholder action agenda fornature-positive pathways.Associated with those priority transitions, the reportidentifies several emerging opportunities to engagein nature-positive business models (Box E1). Someare innovative technology–driven business modelsalready being pursued and attracting private capital– from alternative proteins to food waste–savingtechnologies. Others – such as land restoration andsustainable fisheries – are more nascent and arecurrently being pushed by impact-oriented investors,social enterprises and blended capital. Still others,including many nature-based solutions, are attractingconsiderable interest from large corporations butmight require regulatory and policy development toscale up. Altogether, the opportunities identified in thisreport add up to 10.1 trillion in annual businessvalue and could create 395 million jobs by 2030(Figure E2) – which represents around one-fifth ofthe total projected increase in the global labourforce between now and 2030. These jobs are alsomore likely than jobs in business-as-usual businessmodels to be resilient and offer the opportunity forbetter livelihoods.New Nature Economy Report II – The Future Of Nature And Business10

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTowards a nature-positive food, landand ocean use systemThe global food, land and ocean use system, includingits full supply chains, represents around 10 trillionof GDP (12% of global GDP) and up to 40% ofemployment. The system provides the food andclothes that sustain humans in their daily lives andis crucial for the livelihoods of millions of people,particularly in low-income countries. The rise in bothglobal population and a global consuming class withthe purchasing power to demand more food andclothing per capita will require substantial growth in thissystem’s outputs if current production and consumptionpatterns are maintained. Yet, this system alreadyplaces enormous strain on planetary boundaries, withthe threats relating to it impacting around 72% of allthreatened and near-threatened species. As a result,the system is coming under growing strain and scrutiny.It is increasingly at risk from a changing climate andis already delivering very unequal outcomes in foodsecurity, nutrition and health, such that the hiddencosts of the food, ocean and land use system – anestimated 12 trillion – now exceed its contributionto global GDP. Calls for radically transforming foodproduction processes, halving food loss and waste,and achieving significant dietary shifts were alreadyrising. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic hasonly increased the urgency of many of these issues,highlighting the environmental, economic and socialstrain embedded in the current food supply chains andfarming models.Six complementary socio-economic transitionscan together place the food, land and oceanuse system on a pathway to sustainable, naturepositive development. Together, the businessopportunities associated with these six transitionscould create almost 3.6 trillion of annual additionalrevenue or costs savings while creating 191 millionnew jobs by 2030.First, the ever-expanding footprint of farming, fishingand ranching is unsustainable. Instead, humansocieties should rapidly transform their primarysectors to achieve ecosystem restoration andavoided land and ocean use expansion. To securethis transition, the first and immediate step is tostabilize and reduce the footprint of agriculture andfishing on ecosystems while concurrently restoringdegraded ecosystems to return them to nature.Business action is very important for this transition– for example, through no-deforestation policies incommodity supply chains, high carbon stock andhigh-conservation value approaches by producers,or through the use of nature-based solutions toachieve science-based emission reduction targets.But to fully succeed, the transition needs thesupport of policy and regulation, which are especiallyeffective in the form of spatial planning that identifiesand protects critical ecosystems and ensures thatfiscal incentives and subsidies stop encouragingecosystem conversion but rather spur restoration.Second, the food and land use system couldsignificantly benefit from a fundamental shifttowards productive and regenerative agriculture.Transforming agricultural landscapes and farmingpractices for both food and non-food agriculturethrough a combination of traditional farmingtechniques, advanced precision technologies,and bio-based inputs can increase biodiversity,enrichen soils, improve water management andenhance ecosystem services while improving yields.This transition requires greater understanding andadoption of the appropriate agronomic solutions,including re-alignment of agriculture subsidies, whilenavigating trade-offs between improving yields andstrengthening biodiversity outcomes.Similarly, if sustainably managed, our fisheries couldbe conducive to a healthy and productive ocean. Tofulfil this potential will require managing wild fisher

The need for business to mainstream nature risk in corporate enterprise risk management 2. Provide the insights needed to develop practical roadmaps that address the most important drivers of nature loss, and build a nature-positive future, including: a. The most pressing business-related threats to nature, which require urgent individual and .

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