CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS - Anglo American Plc
CLIMATE CHANGE:OUR PLANS,POLICIES ANDPROGRESS
CONTENTSForeword4Executive summary6Ensuring resilience toclimate change: a critical strategic issue8Our scenarios for possible future worlds10Anglo American: Resilience of ourportfolio to climate change impacts17Climate change: Anglo American'slong-term position19Our policy, engagement, governanceand systems on climate change21Conclusion24Annex25Forward-looking statements272CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
ABOUT THIS REPORTThis report describes how Anglo American is positionedto approach the challenges and opportunities presentedby climate change. It follows on from our 2017 publication,‘Climate change: our plans, policies and progress’. This newreport presents our view on Anglo American’s resilience toclimate change, based on quantitative scenario analysis.This is part of our continued efforts to improve thetransparency of our approach to climate change to ensureconsistency with the expectations of initiatives such as the“Aiming for A” coalition and the recommendations of theFinancial Stability Board’s Task Force on climate-relatedFinancial Disclosure.Legal Disclaimer onForward-Looking StatementsThis document includes forward-lookingstatements. For information regarding forward-lookingstatements please refer to the inside back cover ofthis document.In future years we intend to integrate climate-relateddisclosure into our Integrated Annual Report and relatedmateriality processes.Unless otherwise stated, data included in this report accountsfor relevant factors for the business wholly owned andmanaged by Anglo American or De Beers. A full list of ourbusinesses in our reporting scope is available on page 84 ofAnglo American’s 2018 Sustainability Report.3
FOREWORDAnglo American‘s Purpose, to re-imagine mining toimprove people’s lives, is at the heart of everythingwe do as a business. Combined with our values andguiding our strategy, it is the context against which weconsider the defining challenges of our era, includingclimate change. It is how we start to answer thequestion of what our contribution could (and should)be in the the transition to a low carbon world andhow Anglo American can thrive through and beyondthat transition. This report sets out our thinking. Weshouldn’t underestimate the challenge. The 2015Paris Agreement was a significant achievement,bringing 195 countries to a consensus on the stepsneeded to tackle climate change.Katowice in 2018 took that agreement one step further. Butsince 2015, global emissions have increased by around 1% peryear and show few signs of slowing down. Looking to 2050,as we did in developing the scenarios we are presenting in thisreport, the challenge is even greater. The world’s population islikely to grow by two billion people, to nine billion in total, andglobal GDP is expected to increase threefold. That growth willsee huge positive benefits for developing countries aroundthe world, but to achieve that development and realise theassociated poverty alleviation whilst limiting global temperaturerise, requires a fundamental shift in the resource intensity ofthe global economy. What does this mean for mining andwhat does this mean for Anglo American? The transition toa low carbon economy cannot happen without the productsof mining. The metals and minerals that we produce formthe essential base components for all our modern lives from the platinum group metals that clean vehicle emissionsor enable hydrogen energy, to the copper needed to producewind and solar energy.4We believe that mining has an important long term role to playto 2050 and far beyond. But as economies develop and societaltrends evolve, demand patterns for different metals and mineralswill also change. In the face of these shifts, we need to ensureour business is both resilient and agile. Anglo American todayis a fundamentally different business to just a few years ago, interms of its quality, performance and prospects.The foundations we have built position us well to grow andprosper and to do so sustainably. Our portfolio of world-classassets producing the right metals and minerals of the rightquality to power a cleaner future, coupled with our approach toboth technology and sustainability in its full sense, set us apart.Mining cannot continue its long path of simply scaling up tosupply what the world needs. We need to do things dramaticallydifferently if we are to transform our footprint and be valuedby all our stakeholders. Our first responsibility is to reduceour energy and water usage, and our emissions – and we arecommitted to doing exactly that. We’re on track to achieve our2020 targets and are confident that our FutureSmart MiningTMtechnologies will be a key driver of our emissions reductions to2030 and of driving our operations towards carbon neutrality.We are often asked how our role as a producer of thermal coal isconsistent with our commitment to being part of the solution toclimate change. I do not believe that there is any inconsistency.We have halved our thermal coal production in the last five yearsand, as renewable power generation continues to take hold, wewill continue that transition. But it will take time. In the meantime,I am proud of our thermal coal business and our people thatoperate it to the highest standards of safety and sustainability,for the benefit of the communities and the countries where theyare situated and the millions who benefit from affordable energy.CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
Anglo American’s Purpose, to re-imaginemining to improve people’s lives, is at theheart of everything we do as a business.Combined with our values and guiding ourstrategy, it is the context against which weconsider the defining challenges of our era,including climate change.Mark CutifaniChief Executive, Anglo American5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate change is one of the definingchallenges of our time. Understanding theglobal impacts and the implications for ourbusiness are critical strategic issues for us: Containing global temperature increase to less than 2ºCwould require at least a 50% reduction of global GHGemissions by 2050 in a world where GDP could tripleand population could grow by more than two billion. Achieving a 50% reduction in global GHG emissionswould have profound implications on the intensityof material use and would require the replacementof existing products and technologies and thereforedemand for primary materials.Global efforts to reduce emissions are almostcertain to accelerate, but there is significantuncertainty around the nature and timing ofthese efforts. There is a range of possiblescenarios Progress to tackle emissions has been variable sincethe Paris Agreement. Emissions have increased by c.1%p.a. on average since 2015.We believe mining will remain a relevantindustry across the scenarios considered,however, the mix of products it supplies couldshift away from bulk minerals towards baseand other metals Emissions reductions are possible through thedeployment of technology in key end sectors includingpower, transport, steel and buildings. Renewable powergeneration and the various forms of electric transportare obvious examples of critical abatement technologies. There is likely to be demand growth for copperand nickel, a potential reduction for thermal andmetallurgical coal and iron ore. Demand for PGMs couldgrow significantly if the hydrogen economy developsalong with other metals that have specific physicalcharacteristics that support the application of newscience and technologies. Overall, the mining industry profit pool should be robustacross most scenarios, driven by GDP growth and thecontinuing need for commodities, albeit likely differentto the current supply mix, to support new technologyapplications. As the need to reduce emissions becomes more urgentand effective emissions-reduction technologies becomemore economically competitive, we expect abatementefforts to accelerate. Various scenarios could emerge through 2050 driven bythe extent to which new technology is implemented. Thebreadth and depth of global coordination and regulatoryintervention will also likely play an important role in thespeed and direction of change.6CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
We are confident that our high quality assetportfolio and our ability to adapt to evolvingmarkets ensure our resilience across thescenarios we have tested: Our high quality, low operating cost asset portfolioensures we are positioned to generate free cash flowthrough the commodity price cycle and in the face ofevolving industry dynamics. Our future growth potential is skewed towardscommodities that can thrive as abatement accelerates,particularly copper, nickel and PGMs. We monitor the most relevant signposts to ensure wealign our investment and development priorities to achanging world.We continue to reduce our scope 1 and 2emissions, work on our understanding of thepotential physical impacts of climate changeon our operations and our host communitiesto ensure we mitigate risks where we can: We will deliver against our 2030 stretch goals onemissions and we have a stated ambition to operatecarbon neutral operations. Risk impact, mitigation and tracking elements areembedded in our operating model to help us understandwhat we need to put in place to achieve our targets.We believe that being resilient is not enough.We are actively working to be part of thesolution and will continue to take targeted andmeaningful steps to do so through deliveringon our business objectives: Our diverse product mix uniquely enables us to supplymany of the essential raw materials required forclimate change abatement – copper, nickel and PGMsbeing good examples. Our asset profiles are naturallyweighted towards these base and other metals. We have halved our position in thermal coal throughthe sale of our South African Eskom-tied domesticcoal operations and the Drayton, Dartbrook and Callideoperations in Australia. We do not intend to acquire anyadditional thermal coal assets. Over time, we expectto continue to reduce our thermal coal footprint. Going forward, we will take into account a carbonprice for all our pricing and forecasting. We continue to invest in the development of thehydrogen economy through our membership of theHydrogen Council and the spin-off of Anglo PlatinumVentures (APV), which targets growth of early stagehydrogen enablers. We also support the developmentof carbon reduction and removal technologies. We are founding sponsors of the World Bank’s ClimateSmart Mining Facility which will launch in May 2019.Our management systems, structures,governance and engagement processesensure that climate change is a considerationin all our business decisions: Anglo American’s work on climate change dates backmore than 15 years to when we launched our firstclimate change action plan. We have strong Governance on climate change, with ourGroup Management Committee (GMC) and Board fullyengaged. We have engaged consistently and constructively withinvestors and other stakeholders on climate change. Achievement of our emissions reductions and energyefficiency targets forms a part of the long term incentiveplan for our senior executives.7
ENSURING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE:A CRITICAL STRATEGIC ISSUEClimate change is one of the defining challengesof our era. In living Anglo American’s Purposeto re-imagine mining to improve people’s lives,we recognise the role we have to play in beingpart of the global response to climate change.The challenge is significant. The Paris Agreementcalls for a global temperature increase of ‘well below2 C’. Achieving this would require at least a 50%reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsby 2050, whilst global GDP could triple and populationcould grow by more than 2 billion. Performance sofar has been mixed, with global emissions increasingc.1% per year since 2015 (see Figure 1).It will require us to run more resilient, carbonneutral operations, to target more precisely ourextraction methods in order to minimise widerenvironmental impacts, and to adapt our businessesin response to society’s changing expectations.Anglo American is a leading global mining businesswith interests in diamonds (through De Beers), platinumgroup metals (PGMs), copper, nickel and manganese, ironore, thermal coal and metallurgical coal. Understandinghow climate change may affect our operations andthe key end markets for our products is critical toour strategic decisions and to give us confidence inthe resilience of the sector and our business.Mining is already forming the basis of the transition to alow carbon economy. At the same time, we expect climatechange to fundamentally reshape the mining industry.OtherIndustryTransportPower GenerationFigure 1: Estimated Global GHG emissions (CO2e)8CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
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OUR SCENARIOS FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE WORLDSScenarios are not forecasts, nor do they representAnglo American policy or preferences. Rather,they help us imagine how the world might developin response to different assumed conditions.Our approach to developingclimate change scenariosIt is not possible to know exactly how climate changewill evolve and what its implications will be. However,for mining we expect the impacts in two broad areas: Physical: The potential impact on our operationsand neighbouring communities from floods,droughts, and other extreme weather events emand for mined products: The regulatoryDand technological implications of the transitionto a low carbon economy and how this mightimpact demand for different productsTo anticipate these impacts and formulate strategicresponses to them, we have developed scenarios for possiblefuture worlds that represent combinations of a potential setof outcomes. To build these scenarios we drew on globalbest practice, including among others, the UK Met. Office’sview on physical impacts and the International EnergyAgency’s (IEA) perspectives on market demand impacts,supplemented with our own views on issues materiallyrelevant to Anglo American. We then assessed how sectorsof key significance to mining in general, and Anglo Americanin particular, may evolve in those worlds. By combiningthese analyses with knowledge of our own operations,we have tested how our business might be affected.Our assessment identified two key driversof the low carbon transition:Technological development and deployment Global coordination coupled with regulatory interventionThis has enabled us to quantify the impact of keyindicators on the markets for our products, and then todistil the implications for our products and businesses.Our thinking is based on the following approach: efine focus end sectors: We identified key indicatorsD(developments in policy, economics and technology) todefine our baseline outlook for the highest emitting endsectors (power generation, transport, steel and buildings) Prioritise emission abatement levers: Building onthe existing understanding of abatement levers, weprioritised technologies fulfilling either economic andtechnical feasibility criteria or emissions reductionpotential for each end sector, depending on the scenario efine end sector demand implications:DBased on the likely abatement levers wedeveloped a view of key demand trends erive market implications for our portfolio: UsingDthe end sector demand implications, we updatedour proprietary view of the outlook for our portfolioof products, across the scenarios considered efine signposts to monitor: We identified aDkey set of signposts to monitor by end sectorThis work helps form the basis of our ongoing thinking onclimate change. We will continue to test our scenarios asnew signposts emerge and develop and test new sensitivitiesto outline potential alternative pathways. This will enableus to develop further our understanding of the likelyoutcomes for the industry profit pool and for our business.10CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
Pathways to a low carbon worldIn line with guidance from the Financial Stability Board’sTask Force for Climate Related Financial Disclosure(TCFD), the IEA’s three scenarios – Current Policies, NewPolicies, and Sustainable Development1 – formed thebaseline against which we have developed our scenarios2.IEA’s Current Policies scenario considers only the impactof policies and measures that are firmly established inlegislation as of mid-2018, leading to increasing strainson almost all aspects of energy security and a majoradditional rise in energy-related CO2 emissions.New Policies Scenario (NPS) includes policies andtargets that governments have announced but notyet enacted. This scenario results in slower emissionsgrowth than Current Policies, but emissions in 2040would still be higher than today. NPS is not compatiblewith Paris Agreement objectives and would result in aglobal temperature rise of greater than 2 C by 2100.NPS : Under NPS , we assume that the global economywill have undergone major changes by 2050, in particularin the power generation/energy, transport and steelsectors: the global power mix will have shifted significantly,with renewables delivering more than 50% of thatpower, and various electric vehicle technologies will havebecome the norm in most markets for light vehicles.30 GtCAGRSteelBuildingTransportSustainable Development assumes that acceleratedclean energy transitions will mean there is a reasonablePower Generationprobability of restricting global temperature rises to nomore than 2 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, whiledelivering clean air and universal access to modern energy.The transition to a lower carbon world is alreadyhappening, so we based our scenario development onNew Policies and Sustainable Development. We callthe scenarios we have developed: NPS and 2oC.Figure 2a: Emissions trajectories under NPS to 2050 for focus end enarios/While the IEA Scenarios forecast out to 2040, we have used their baseline to develop a view out to 20501211
2 C: Derived from IEA’s ‘Sustainable Development’ scenario,this scenario tracks a transition pathway in which globaltemperature would, with reasonable probability, increaseby less than 2 C by 2100. In addition to abatementlevers contained in NPS , 2 C assumes a higher shareof renewables in the energy mix, the phasing out ofcoal power, and extensive deployment of low carbontechnologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS),by 2050. It also assumes focused and productive globalcooperation, as well as radically altered consumer andbusiness behaviour resulting, in part, from widespreadadoption of the circular (reduce and reuse) economy.Power GenerationFigure 2b: Emissions trajectories under 2 C to 2050for focus end sectorsPowerTransportSteelBuildingsGrowth ofrenewable generationDown-sizing and efficiencyincreases of InternalCombustion EnginesFeed / raw materialssubstitutions(e.g., scrap recycling)District heating / CHP inurban spacesNuclear new buildsImproving efficiency ofauto catalystsShift to EAF (scrap-based)Growth of electric heating(replacement of oil and gas)Gas replaces coalas backupGrowth of battery vehiclesShift to EAF (DRI)Demand-side managementand higher efficiencyappliancesStorage and grid expansionfor system integrationFuel cell applications (acrossmodes of transportation)Biomass based pig ironproductionPower-to-Gas forrenewable backupMobility as a serviceChange of application areasCarbon Captureand Storage (CCS)Carbon Capture Use andStorage (CCUS)Figure 3: Selection of most economic / feasible end sector trends for climate change abatement12CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
Power GenerationNPS projects that global power demand will doubleby 2050. Renewable power generation would increasesignificantly in most regions as renewable costs continueto fall. As a result, coal’s share of the power mix woulddecline substantially by 2050, but the absolute amount ofcoal power generated would fall only slightly. Developedeconomies would move away from coal, but coal generationwould grow significantly in India and South East Asia.Carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal and gaspower generation would not be economic in this scenario,based on IEA’s carbon price assumptions, even assumingsignificant declines in the cost of the technology.2 C sees an increase of two-thirds in global power demandfrom today, compared with a doubling of demand in NPS .The key driver of lower power demand in 2 C is higherenergy efficiency in industry and buildings. Fossil fuelgeneration falls rapidly, with coal almost entirely phasedout by 2050. CCS becomes economic due to highercarbon prices and is applied to some coal and gas capacity.Renewables account for the majority of power generation by2050 and nuclear slightly increases its share (see Figure 4).Figure 4: Share of primary energy source forglobal power generation in a 2 C ScenarioIn both scenarios, increased wind and solar powergeneration would increase demand for copper,as these technologies are much more copperintensive than fossil fuel power generation.TransportAlthough the global annual sales share of electric vehicles–both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electricvehicles (FCEVs) – is less than 5% today, both the NPS and 2 C forecast this to increase to more than 50% forboth light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles by 2050.This growth would be driven by government incentives inthe short-term, with further technological advances andlarge-scale infrastructure deployment over the next 10-15years delivering sustainable lower total cost of ownership.Figure 5 shows the expected global evolution of salesof light-duty vehicles by drivetrain in the 2 C scenario.One key difference between our two main scenariosinvolves the level of overall demand for both lightduty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles.Figure 5: Share of powertrain type for global lightduty vehicle sales in 2 C Scenario13
Although the long-term outlook for the automotivesector is positive, demand for vehicles could belower in 2 C than in NPS , owing to acceleratedshared mobility and autonomous vehicles trends.Figure 6 shows the expected evolution of the ironsource in steel making in the 2 C Scenario. Thechange in production method mix is less pronouncedin NPS , owing to lower carbon prices.The emergence and adoption of various electric powertraintechnologies would likely affect demand for several of ourproducts. The uptake of electric vehicles is positive for bothcopper and nickel. BEVs contain four times the copper andtwelve times the nickel of an internal combustion engine(ICE) vehicle. The positive impact is more pronounced inNPS than in 2 C because the latter assumes a lowernumber of vehicles overall. The effects on demand forPGMs is less clear. The emergence of BEVs as a majoralternative drivetrain in the long term would reduce demandfor auto catalysts and thus have a negative impact onPGMs demand. However, across both scenarios, hybridswould maintain a share of sales in the next decade, thusensuring a level of continued demand from autocatalysts.We expect FCEVs, which today rely on PGMs-based fuelcells, to contribute to the electrified drivetrain for vehicles,especially in the heavy duty segment of the market.The 2 C Scenario assumes the installation of CCUS capacityto reduce the carbon footprint of remaining BF/BOFproduction plants. The NPS scenario assumes that CCUSwill not be economically viable and that governments will notagree on a coordinated regulatory strategy to support it.Our scenarios assume a significant transitionfor the steel industry, which would reduce itsCO2 emissions through a combination of:A shift towards lower-emission production processes The application of Carbon Capture Use and Storage(CCUS) on remaining high-emission plants andDevelopment of a more circular economyLikely broad adoption of carbon prices would shift theglobal mix of steel production towards lower-emissionproduction processes. The integrated blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BF/BOF) process dominatestoday’s steel production mix, but we expect the loweremission electric arc furnace (EAF) process to occupya greater share in the future. Pig iron, the main ironsource for BF/BOF, requires both metallurgical coaland iron ore. EAF steel can be made mainly using: Direct reduction iron (Gas-based DRI), whichwould reduce demand for metallurgical coal; or Scrap steel, which would lower the demandfor both metallurgical coal and iron ore.14Scrap DRI In the 2 C Scenario, higher production from EAF, combinedwith lower steel production demand, could lead to adecrease in demand for metallurgical coal and – to a lesserextent – iron ore by 2050. In NPS , the growing demandfor steel could counterbalance the economically drivenrelative shift from BF/BOF to EAF, resulting in relativelystable demand for both metallurgical coal and iron ore.Pig IronSteelImplicit in the 2 C Scenario is greater efficiency ofuse (and hence lower steel consumption per unit ofGDP), consistent with the development of the circulareconomy. In NPS , however, the circular economy’simpact is expected to be limited to steel recycling,with a continuation of or slight improvement ontoday’s already high steel scrap recovery rates.Figure 6: Share of iron source for global crude steelproduction in the 2 C ScenarioCLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
BuildingsGlobal building floor space is expected to increaseby c.55% in total by 2050 (relative to 2018), drivenby both population growth and increasing wealth.In NPS , national building standards, regulation andincentives would promote greener construction andrenovation of buildings. By 2050, the average buildingwould require c.25% less energy and emit c.50% lessCO2 per square metre than today. Key energy reductionand emissions abatement levers will include: Improving the building envelope to minimise energydemand for space heating and cooling (e.g. tripleglazed windows, better insulation, reflective roofing) Improving the energy efficiency of systems andequipment (e.g., low energy appliances, LED lightingwith motion sensors and automatic dimmers) Switching to lower carbon energy sources(e.g. heat pumps, solar thermal systems)In 2 C, stricter regulations for the construction of newbuildings would result in additional energy efficiencyimprovements and emissions reductions than in NPS .Higher renovation rates would deliver greater energy andemissions savings from existing buildings. Use of fossilsfuels in buildings would be c.30% lower in 2050 in 2 Cthan in NPS , as many regions ban their use for heatingbuildings. By 2050, the average building would require c.45%less energy and emit c.65% less CO2 per square metre.15
What is the impact on miningacross our scenarios?We expect the overall industry profit pool to be robustand grow under NPS . Uptake of new technologiesrequired to achieve a 2 C outcome could lead toan overall flat profit pool outlook post-2035.At a product level, we expect profit pools to grow in bothscenarios for copper and nickel and to reduce forcoal (thermal and metallurgical). The outlook for ironore is positive under NPS and negative under 2oC andthe upside outlook for PGMs is less certain, given thepotential for significant growth if the hydrogen economydevelops at scale. Figure 7 provides more detail.Figure 7: Outlook for mining commodity profit pools (indexed vs. current profit pools) by scenario16CLIMATE CHANGE: OUR PLANS, POLICIES AND PROGRESS
ANGLO AMERICAN: RESILIENCE OF OURPORTFOLIO TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSTo test the resilience of Anglo American weassessed the impact of the scenario outcomeson our portfolio. The framework we usedtested Anglo American’s resilience across keydimensions: strategic robustness, financialstrength and sustainability. We assess the impactof transitioning to lower carbon worlds for our twomain scenarios (NPS and 2oC) but there arevarious pathways that can lead to similar outcomes.To ensure consistency, we focused on our existingassets and organic growth opportunities. Againstthese tests, our business is fundamentally resilientover the medium term, across scenarios.Over the longer term, our suite of organic growthopportunities, high quality assets and exposure to attractiveproducts (such as copper) give us confidence in our ability toremain resilient. However, it is difficult to be precise becausethe future is by its nature uncertain and we have not yetfully developed/funded all our potential growth options.Financially, based on our current asset footprint andignoring any future adjustments to the portfolio beyondthe execution of our potential suite of organic growthprojects or any other changes, our cashflow could growsignificantly to 2030 under NPS . Under the IEA’s 2 Cscenario we remain resilient, although there is greateruncertainty depending on what assumptions are made oncritical levers. The range relative to our NPS cashflowcould be between 20% higher and 10% lower in 2030.Much of our growth is aligned with key climate changetrends, driven by our well-placed position in metalssuch as copper, nickel and PGMs that are expectedto support the acceleration of abatement efforts.This shift is underpinned by strong optionality inour portfolio. In copper, we are currently developingQuellaveco, one of the few tier one projects in the world.Additionally, our portfolio includes Los Bronces andCollahuasi, which have reserve lives of 30 and 63 yearsrespectively, and have some of the largest resource basesin the industry, offering further growth optionality.In PGMs, our flagship Mogalakwena mine is not onlylow cost and competitive, but retains a polymetallicmix well suited to supply the metals needed in thelow carbon transition for the transport sector.Figure 8: Our Asset Improvement JourneyNote: bubble sizes represent e
climate change: a critical strategic issue 8 Our scenarios for possible future worlds 10 Anglo American: Resilience of our portfolio to climate change impacts 17 Climate change: Anglo American's long-term position 19 Our policy, engagement, governance and systems on climate change 21 Conclusion 24 Annex 25 Forward-looking statements 27 CONTENTS
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