Longer Term Investments Introduction To TheLonger Term . - UBS

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Longer Term InvestmentsAutomation and roboticsChief Investment Office GWM 26 February 2020 5:23 pm GMTAlexander Stiehler, CFA, Analyst; Sundeep Gantori, CFA, CAIA, Analyst We believe smart automation will continue to power the fourthindustrial revolution, combining innovation in industrial and ITprocesses to drive global manufacturing productivity gains. We discuss the opportunities that digital twins—virtualrepresentations of a product, production process, orperformance—will bring in terms of flexibility to manufacture,time to market, and productivity improvements. We estimate the market size at USD 186bn in 2019 andexpect mid-to-high single-digit growth rates on average inthe longer term. Rising wages and challenging demographicchanges will pressure the costs of manufacturing firms,driving automation investments. The increasing digitalizationof automation equipment is also a key driver of higherefficiency and therefore more automation investment. We suggest long-term investors add positions in thisinvestment theme to benefit from the structural growthopportunities in key end markets.Introduction to the LongerTerm Investments (LTI) series- The Longer Term Invest ment s (LTI) seriescontains thematic investment ideas based onlong term structural developments.- Secular trends such as population growth,aging, and increased urbanization create avariety of longer term investment opportunities.-These investment opportunities are influenced bythe interplay of technological advancement,resource scarcity, and the societal changes.- Investors willing to invest over multiple businesscycles can benefit from potential mispricingscreated by the typically shorter term focus ofstock markets.Our viewIndustry 4.0, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and smartmanufacturing are terms that describe a new era of manufacturingcharacterized by increased connectivity and automation. TheIndustrial Internet of Things (IIoT), 5G, and industrial software all serveas key drivers of this transformation to smart manufacturing.The term Industry 4.0 initially appeared in the opening speech at theHannover Messe (one of the largest trade fairs worldwide) in 2011.In the speech, the CEO of the German Research Center for ArtificialIntelligence, Professor Wolfgang Wahlster, used it to describe howhigh-wage countries could compete with cheaper global competition.He also mentioned that the internet will be the driving force behindthis latest revolution and that the Internet of Things (IoT) createsa bridge between the virtual and the real worlds. We fully agreewith this conclusion. In our view, smart automation combines theinnovation power of industrial and IT processes to drive gains in globalmanufacturing productivity.This report discusses recent trends and the long-term outlook forfactory and process automation, industrial software, digital twins, and3D printing, as well as commercial drones and artificial intelligence(AI). We believe automation companies can further outperform therecovery due to structural trends like demographic changes, risinglabor costs in emerging markets, the drive for productivity gains, andrising digitalization. In particular, the industrial software and roboticsThis report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG and UBS AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Longer Term 0,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,00002000The manufacturing industry has a history of re-inventing itself. Withsteam power in the first industrial revolution, electricity in the second,and computing and automation in the third, industry has alwaysfound ways to boost productivity. Another industry revolution isnow underway, which we believe will transform manufacturing. It'spowered by smart automation as Industry 4.0 rises in importance.Smart automation combines the innovation power of industrial and ITprocesses to drive gains in global manufacturing productivity. Industrial software raises automation equipment to the next level frommerely improving efficiency and accuracy. Automation is increasinglya tool for total operation and asset management. Based on ourmarket definition, the automation market currently is currently worthUSD 186bn (see Fig. 3). We expect the smart automation industry'saverage revenue to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, supportedby several structural drivers (which we discuss in detail in this report).From an investment perspective, smart automation will likely be oneof the fastest growing segments within the broader industrial and ITsectors over the next 0400,000300,000200,000100,00001995Growth driversFig. 1: Demographic change: Shifting working agepopulationSize of population in ages 15-64, in thousands1990segments offer high growth opportunities. These changes shouldlead to: 1) long-term, above-average earnings growth; and 2) rerating potential for industrial companies with automation softwareexposure.High-income countries (lhs)Low-income countries (lhs)Middle-income countries (rhs)Source: United Nations, Department of Economic andSocial Affairs, as of 29 October 2019To understand the potential of the automation theme, it is importantto identify secular trends that could lead to strong, sustainable growthover the next few years: We think emerging markets (EMs) are one of the most promisinggrowth themes. In EMs, robotics use is still far behind developedcountries, the need to drive productivity gains, rising wages andthe size of the manufacturing sector. This is true particularly inChina, where the mass reallocation of cheap labor from the agricultural sector to manufacturing is slowing. The aging population in both developed and emerging marketsmakes it also is an attractive region for automation equipment.More people both in high and in upper-middle income countries will retire in the next decade than will enter the workforce:working-age populations will peak in 2020 and 2025, respectively (see Fig. 1). We expect the rising digitalization of the manufacturing sector(industrial software) to lead to a new wave of automationinvestment in developed countries. The use of software or IT penetration is still lower in the manufacturing automation world thanin offices or healthcare, but we have reached an inflection point,with software moving down to the factory floor. New capacity expansion used to be the key driver for demandbut now industry upgrades have become more important and willcontinue to be the major driver.2

Longer Term Investments Industrial software (smarter equipment) will increasingly also be atool for asset optimization (remote monitoring, predictive maintenance). The so-called Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) enables communication along the entire value chain, improving productivitythrough the use of big data. In our Executives and Entrepreneursresearch series we did a deep dive on the Industrial Internet ofThings and the implications for entrepreneurs, for more detailsplease the report published on 2 October 2019 (Industry 4.0 andthe IIoT: Winners but also losers).When people think about automation, most picture an industrialrobot assembling a car. In reality, that is only one part of the entireautomation value chain, which can be split into several categories,with the most prominent being factory and process automation.Industrial software is becoming an increasingly important businessdriver in both segments. Factory (or discrete) automation generally describes assembling processes, such as automating robotsin the automotive industry, but also other automation processesin the general manufacturing industry, packaging and semiconductors, among others. Process automation means continuous production processes that transform raw materials into final products(e.g. mixing of liquids in refining, or distribution of electricity).Typical process automation end-markets are the oil and gas industry,refining, chemicals or power generation. Between these two sectorsare several hybrid markets that use both factory automation andprocess equipment. Fig. 2 summarizes all the different automationend-markets. Besides the traditional discrete and process automationmarket as well as the growing industrial software, we also countseveral new applications to the automation market like 3D printing,artificial intelligence and drones (see Fig. 3). Although the newmarkets are still relatively small compared to discrete, robotics, andprocess automation, they clearly outperform the growth in the overallautomation market (unfortunately, there are only a few listed pureplay companies and they are small).Fig. 2: Factory (discrete) vs. process automationSource: CLSAWe discuss all end-markets in more detail in this report. Our focus inthe first section will be on the discrete (factory), robotics, and processautomation industry as all three end-markets are very importantfor industrial automation companies. UBS estimates that their combined value is USD 118bn (2019E), with 24% attributable to discreteautomation, 16% to robotics, and 60% to process automation. If weinclude the emerging 3D printing market, artificial intelligence anddrones plus revenues from pure-play automation software companies,then the total market volume amounts to some USD 186bn (see Fig.3). To estimate the market size, we have used a bottom-up approachand aggregated automation sales of the most important market participants. Overall, the growth prospects are lower in our new forecastdue to the weaker growth prospects across the traditional automationmarkets. We expect in weaker demand in particular from the automotive sector.3

Longer Term InvestmentsFig. 3: All automation markets are expect to grow, but new markets such as 3D printing, AI and drones look setto take off.Aut omat ion marketMarket size: USD 185.9bn 2019EUSD 214.3bn 2021EdaAverage growth rate 7% p.a.Fact ory aut omat ionMarket size: USD 27.9bn 2019EMarket size: USD 28.8bn 2021EProcess aut omat ionRobot icsIndust rial sof t w aredMarket size: USD 71.2bn 2019EdMarket size: USD 19.1bn 2019EdMarket size: USD 36.4bn 2019EMarket size: USD 74.0bn 2021EMarket size: USD 23.9bn 2021EMarket size: USD 41.7bn 2021ELow-single digit annual rate of growthNew markets3D print ingAIDrones12% annual rate of growth7% annual rate of growth3D print ingArt if icial Int elligenceMarket size: USD 10.9bn 2019EMarket size: USD 11.3bn 2019EMarket size: USD 9.2bn 2019EMarket size: USD 14.4bn 2021EMarket size: USD 17.6bn 2021EMarket size: USD 13.9bn 2021EDronesDouble-digit annual rate of growth0Source: Company data, UBS estimates, as of February 2020Note: Our industrial software estimate includes only sales from software companies. Software sales from industrial companies are included in either factory or process automation market due to limited access to detailed sales splits of industrialautomation companies.Factory (discrete) automationThe largest end-market in the factory automation market is the automotive industry; typical products are programmable logical controllers(PLCs), electric motors, sensors, robots and, of course, manufacturingsoftware. The highly consolidated market is mainly controlled byEuropean and Japanese companies and a few US vendors, with fiveplayers controlling half of the market. On average, the classic discreteautomation market (ex-software and robotics) grew 3% p.a. between2016 and 2019. For the next few years we expect only a low-singledigit growth rate due to weak demand from the automotive sector.Robot shipments outperformed during this period (mid-teen p.a. since2010) due to strong demand in EMs, particularly in China. We thinkthe robotics sub-segment is still very exciting. The segment will still bethe main growth engine. For 2020-2022, the International Federationof Robotics (IFR) expects 12% growth on average a year. The market isfairly consolidated with only four players dominating more than 50%of the market (see Fig. 5).Fig. 4: Factory (discrete) automation market shareTotal USD 28bn in 2019E (based on EURUSD exchangerate of 1.1)Siemens20%Mitsubish 2%3% 3% 3% 6%OmronBosch Rexroth7%DanfossOtherSource: Company data, UBS estimates, as of February20204

Longer Term InvestmentsNew capacity expansion used to be the key driver for demand, butindustry upgrades will now be the predominant driver. Automationequipment is increasingly also used outside of the automotiveindustry, which provides a growth opportunity for automationequipment manufacturers. In particular, industry upgrades in the lowto-mid-end manufacturing sectors drive demand (rising labor costs,labor shortage, and an aging and better-educated population thatdoesn't want to work in factories). The long-term potential is shown inFig. 7, which indicates how much more potential China has if it growsits robots density similar like developed countries. Its pure manufacturing size would make it a multi-million robots market in the future.Other EMs like India, Vietnam, or Thailand look also promising.Since 2000, wages in China have risen significantly above othermarkets, and China's one-child policy triggered a decline in new laborsupply and advanced the shift towards an aging population. Whilenot every EM country is aging, with India as a case in point, the manufacturing-led economies like China, Korea and Taiwan clearly are. Ontop of this, rising education levels have resulted in a fewer workerswilling to take lower-pay manufacturing jobs.While the demographic challenge is a long-term issue, rising laborcosts are an important short-term driver as higher wages shorten thepayback period for robots. Other than the costs, efficiency is alsomuch higher with robots; the best example is the automotive %Kuka12-15%Source: Based on company data and 2018 Bernstein estimates, forecasted by UBS as of February 2020Fig. 6: Robot density in manufacturing industry bycountry, 2018Robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturingsector400Germany (2018)350300Japan Robot Penetration Curve250200US (2018)150100China 8The IFR expects c420,000 new robots to be installed in Asia alone inthe year 2022, representing a global market share of 72% (expectedtotal installations globally in 2022: 583,520). The rest is mainlyinstalled in Europe and the America, with a little rest in other regions(see fig. 8).Fig. 5: Robots market shareTotal USD 19bn in 2019ESource: IFR World Robotics (World Robotics IndustrialRobots 2019), UBSFig. 7: Robot density in manufacturing industry(all industries) by country/region, 2018Robots per 10,000 employees in the aFranceSwitzerlandFinlandChinaCzech Rep.EuropeAmericasWorldAsiaOn top of the software revolution, we see several additional driversthat should spur sustainable growth for robots in the coming years.EMs account for roughly half of the global manufacturing output.However, robot penetration is much lower than in developed countries. Despite strong growth over recent years in China and otherEMs, the potential remains significant. In terms of robot density, Chinaappears to be at a level comparable to Japan in the mid-80s (see Fig.6). There is still a gap compared to the leading manufacturing heavyindustrialized countries (see Fig. 7). Despite strong progress in the US –217 robots per 10,000 employees in 2018 compared to 114 in 2009 –the country is still far behind Germany and Japan (both 320 robots).This shows the huge potential globally.Source: IFR World Robotics (World Robotics IndustrialRobots 2019)5

Longer Term InvestmentsAs mentioned earlier, process automation involves a continuous flowof raw materials (e.g. in the oil and gas or the chemical industries), where a high degree of measurement, timing and precision isimportant. The automation part is a kind of central computer thatinteracts with valves and sensors to run the process smoothly.Without process automation systems, plant operators have to physically follow all parameters during the production process and afterwards assess the quality of the output. In addition, maintenance is notperformed when necessary, but rather at regular intervals. Therefore,without automation equipment, it is much harder for plant operatorsto achieve best performance compared to an automated plant thathas sensors and computers to analyze thousands of signals. Inefficiency in production processes and sub-optimal maintenance intervalsmake operations more costly.Similar to factory automation, this market is also fairly consolidated.Ten companies have a combined market share of 66%.In 2019, we estimate the total market size reached almost the levelit had during the peak years in 2013/14 (USD 74.5bn in 2014, basedon EURUSD exchange rate of 1.15). In 2015 and 2016, market conditions for process automation deteriorated significantly. The oil pricecollapse hurt process automation capital expenditure (capex). Afterbottoming in 2016/17 and decent growth in 2018/19 (around 4%)we expect -single-digit growth till 2021. We expect continued growthin the chemical and the oil and gas markets. The shale gas revolutionin the US has triggered a wave of investments in both sectors, supporting process automation.Last but not least, before we discuss the other automation endmarkets in the overall distribution of market share, the top six namesare 50/50 split between the US and Europe, followed by a fewJapanese companies. Competition from emerging markets is not yetstrong enough to make it into the top ten.Fig. 8: Asia dominates global robot demandExpected newly installed robot units in 2018 vs. : Others reported and estimated sales which couldnot be specified by countries. Source: IFR World Robotics(World Robotics Industrial Robots 2019)Fig. 9: China's long-term potential is hugeOperational stock of robots vs. Robots per 10,000employees in the manufacturing sector800,000Operational stock of industrial robots (units)Process automationChinaBubble size:Industry value added700,000600,000Japan500,000US400,000Rep. of 500600700800# of robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturing sectorSource: IFR World Robotics (World Robotics IndustrialRobots 2019), The World Bank: Industry (including construction), value added (current US 2010) - China, UnitedStates, Japan, Germany, Rep. of Korea, for the year 2017(CC-BY 4.0 License), UBS6

Longer Term InvestmentsIndustrial softwareThe growth outlook for industrial software remains solid as morecompanies leverage the benefits of digitalization in product manufacturing. The rising trend is more apparent as many manufacturingcompanies have started to carve out separate internal teams called"digital factories" to take advantage of software in manufacturing.Despite a mixed outlook for overall enterprise IT spending, the outlookfor the software industry remains solid with mid-to-high single-digitgrowth in industrial software, which constitutes around 85% of thebroader software industry.The two major sub-industries within the industrial software segmentinclude product life-cycle management (PLM) and manufacturingexecution systems (MES). PLM is generally considered an enterpriselevel software system, whereas MES is a plant level system, themajor difference being that PLM is used in development and corresponding production processes, while MES is used to optimize theproduction process. An example of PLM is a computer aided design(CAD) software program for designing products on the computer;an example of MES is operation management software. Increasingly,IT service companies like IBM and Accenture have begun investingmore in the industrial software and services to take advantage of theindustry's strong growth outlook.Growth in industrial software will continue to depend on:1. Solving design complexity: Industrial software helps manufacturing firms reduce design complexity, which is often a key bottleneck. For example, Renault's Formula One team leveragesindustrial software by using state-of-the-art simulation technologies for a broad range of applications including engine combustion, intake and exhaust, thermal cooling, batteries, electricmotors, and turbochargers, thus enhancing its race competitiveness. Despite rising usage, we still expect significant growthpotential for design-based software, particularly from EMs, giventhe low penetration.2. Improved time-to-market: By solving design complexity andimproving production efficiency through integrated tools, industrial software can significantly improve the time-to-market. Inthis regard, in addition to the advancement in 3D printing oradditive manufacturing, drones are fast emerging as a key IT toolfor the growth of industrial automation.7

Longer Term InvestmentsDigital twinsDigital twins are another major development trend in the industrialsoftware segment. While the concept already exists in other industries, digital twins in manufacturing are at an inflection point and setfor major uptake.Recommended readingExecutives & Entrepreneurs: Industry 4.0 and theIIoT: Winners but also losers, published on 2October 2019.To put it simply, digital twins are like a digital replica, a representationof a manufacturing device or process aimed at optimizing the production environment. A digital twin model basically creates a threadusing IoT sensors between the physical and digital world where digitaltwin is used to simulate the behavior of the product or process ina real-world environment. For example, technicians can use a digitaltwin to test a proposed fix before applying in the physical environmentsaving huge costs. Or a race car crew can use digital twins to identifya component that burns out most in a real race environment. Workerson an oil rig or in the wind turbine maintenance industry can monitordigital twins for defects rather than physically inspecting each andevery time.In summary, we believe digital twins will be center of manufacturingdigitalization as they not only reduce significant costs but also driveoptimized processes and improve time to market. While growth indevelopments is a low-hanging fruit, we see emerging markets as ahuge growth driver for digital twins in the future.Table 1: Overview of industrial software marketLevel of cont rolEnterprise Resource Planning (ERP)Plant design and simulation / Digital FactoryProduct Life Cycle Management (PLM, incuding CAD)Ent erprise levelManufacturing Execution Systems (MES)Supervisory Control and Data Analytics (SCADA)Process IndustriesHybrid Indust riesDiscrete IndustriesAddit ive M anufact uringPlant levelDistributed Control Systems (DCS)Programmable Logic Controller (PLC, PAC)Safety SystemsMotion controlProduction SystemsMachine ToolsRobotsPumpsDrives -- Motors -- GearsCNC3D PrintersDevice levelMeasurement devicesActuation devicesValvesCompressorsMetrology (3D inspection, measurement callibration)Source: J.P. Morgan8

Longer Term InvestmentsImplications for industrial companies - digital twinsThe world market leader in industry automation, Siemens, definesa digital twin as a virtual representation of a product, productionprocess, or performance. Modern factories no longer exist just in thephysical world.As the consumer industry experienced with the launch of smartphones, the industrials sector is undergoing a fundamental IoT drivenstructural change (see Box 1). Industrial equipment is becomingincreasingly interconnected and linked, enabling people to collaborate better and enhancing productivity. Amid this digital transformation, companies will need to sense, analyze, and act based on data.So major industrial companies are in the process of expanding theirsoftware offerings or acquiring specialist IT companies that not onlyprovide new product optimization opportunities for their customersbut create new incremental revenue opportunities for themselves.One key enabler of your digital twin is the IIoT, which describesa network of connected devices. Modern robots, warehouseequipment, and devices that automate refineries, heating and coolingsystems in buildings, and even modern airplane engines all generatedata. It enables the owner of the assets to operate them much moreefficiently (see Fig. 10). IIoT technology and the related industrialsoftware are also becoming a tool for asset optimization (cost savings)through remote monitoring and predictive maintenance. As the lifecycle maintenance cost of an aircraft engine, for example, is a multiple of its selling price, potential savings could be significant if onecould predict unscheduled outages.Buildings, too, benefit from this technology, through improved energyefficiency. They can be visualized before construction starts. Theirowners, using this data, can optimize their energy supplies. Alongwith productivity and operational improvements, IIoT tech providescompanies new revenue opportunities and realtime product support.The data collection during the life-cycle of products, buildings, andother applications delivers valuable insights about the parts that failedor weaknesses during periods of stress.Siemens describes this approach as a closed cycle that links the entirevalue chain, from development and planning in the digital world tothe real-world performance of the product.Box 1: Description of the Internet of Thingsverus Industrial Internet of ThingsThe Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a networkof connected, everyday devices that constantlysend and receive data. A combination of connected chips (Bluetooth/WIFI or cellular) andsensors or lowpower processors linked to aremote hub is making regular objects like refrigerators, cars, and public lighting "intelligent."The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT)describes the Internet of Things in the manufacturing world. It includes, among other applications, the use of sensor data, machine-tomachine communication and big data technology (cloud-based platforms) to better monitorequipment and analyze data. IIoT technologyoptimizes inefficiencies and saves time andmoney through better management of the production process and predictive maintenance.Fig. 10: Exemplary application areas of 5G inthe factory of the futureSource: ZVEINote: AGV automated guided vehicleBased on our discussion with management teams from industrialcompanies and feedback from the Hanover trade fair in 2019, webelieve that, for major industrial companies, digital twins will becomea common tool. It offers such companies an opportunity for sellingnew digital services and interacting with their customers more oftenthrough continuous monitoring of the installed base.The IIoT will be key to the success of the digital twin technology. Itincludes, among other applications, the use of sensor data, machineto-machine communication, and big data technology (cloud-basedplatforms) to better monitor equipment and analyze data. Digitaltwins and IIoT technology eliminate inefficiencies and save time andmoney through better management of production processes and predictive maintenance.9

Longer Term InvestmentsNew technologies, in particular the coming 5G network, will accelerate adoption of the IIoT. 5G goes beyond the applications of 4Gwith its focus on machine-type communication. It will have 10 timesmore bandwidth than 4G. Even more important for industrial applications is its low latency, high reliability, and IoT connectivity. Latencydefines reaction time: Low latency is a prerequisite for real-time applications. For LTE (4G) technology, latency is around 50 milliseconds(ms). It will drop in the 5G network to around 1ms (source: DeutscheTelekom). 5G reliability and availability is 99.999%, also an importantfeature. All these attributes will make it the standard wireless technology most companies use to communicate from the factory directlyto the cloud. So 5G will be a pillar of smart manufacturing (Industry4.0), improving efficiency, flexibility, and product diversity in the manufacturing process.There are many use cases in which IIoT will play an important role.They include motion control systems and augmented reality (AR).While motion control devices need low latency rates and high reliability to control the moving and rotating parts, AR requires high datarates (see Fig. 11; source: ZVEI - 5G Alliance for Connected Industriesand Automation).Fig. 11: Overview of selected industrial usecases and arrangement according to their basicservice requirementsIIoT development is still in its infancy. There are many IIoT players inthis "proof-of-concept" period trying to create a new offering. Theyinclude traditional US and European software companies, as well asglobal industrial giants.Although the landscape is fragmented, Siemens, with its MindSphereplatform, is one of the market leaders among industrial companies.Behind MindSphere is an IoT application focused on product lifecycle management (PLM). It covers the entire value chain from development, prototyping, and production to the final end-customers anddaily use.Source: ZVEIMany traditional software companies leverage their existing technologies to service the industrial world. Some industrial companiesuse the basic architecture of the software players to build theirplatform in cooperation with them (e.g., Schneider and ABB have apartnership with Microsoft).Microsoft has a leading IoT offering thanks to its dominant softwareposition and solid cloud offering. For example, its IoT plug-and-playfeature makes it easier for its SME clients (small and medium-sizedenterprises), who don't have to write compl

labor costs in emerging markets, the drive for productivity gains, and rising digitalization. In particular, the industrial software and robotics Introduction to theLonger Term Investments(LTI)series---The Longer Term Investments(LTI)series containsthematicinvestment ideasbased on longtermstructuraldevelopments. Secular trendssuch aspopulation .

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