June 2020 DRIVERS OF EMERGING- MARKET GROWTH - Top1000Funds
June 2020THE CHANGINGDRIVERSOF EMERGINGMARKET GROWTHSeeking out Structural GrowthOpportunities Against anEvolving BackdropThis document is for institutional investors only.Compared to more established economies, the value of investments in emerging markets may be subject to greater volatility owingto differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic, political instability or less developed market practices.Please read the important information at the end of this document.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth1
CONTENTS3Introduction4From 2005 to Now: How Emerging Markets Have EvolvedAUTHORThe Emerging-Market Investment Case in 2005The Emerging-Market Investment Case in 20205Portfolio Implications1. New Technologies2. Information Technology (IT) in the Digital Age3. India and China Drive the Consumption Upgrade8China9India10 Transition to Service Delivery – The Rise of Internet Platforms11 Conclusion1 CFA and Chartered Financial Analyst are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.2The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market GrowthSophia WhitbreadPortfolio Manager, Asian andEmerging EquitiesSophia is a portfolio manager on theequity opportunities team. She joinedNewton in 2005 as a financials analyst,specializing in the banking sector.She held additional, and specific,responsibilities for the assetmanagement and the life insurancesectors, with coverage of all sectorson a global basis.She moved to Scotland briefly in2010, working for Baillie Gifford, beforereturning to Newton in January 2011to assume her current role. She is aportfolio manager on the globalemerging markets and Asian equitystrategies.Sophia holds both MA (Hons) andMPhil degrees in Classics from theUniversity of Cambridge. Sophia is aCFA 1 charterholder.
INTRODUCTIONThis article aims to demonstrate how emerging-market economies have evolvedover time. It is worth starting by looking at how the emerging-market investmentbackdrop has been transformed over the last two decades.Emerging markets have come a long way since the early 2000s.Today: Infrastructure is predominantly in place(including the widespread availability of high-speed broadband) Technology is advanced Consumers are wealthier.The confluence of these factors has resulted inchanging consumer behaviors, greater consumerresilience and new categories of consumption,which have driven the rapid development ofconsumer-facing services industries inemerging markets.The same three elements also make emergingmarkets less dependent on global-demand dynamicsthan they may have been historically, and allow foremerging-market growth to be more internally driven,and consumer-led, in the future.Against this backdrop, we see significantopportunities from the changing drivers ofemerging-market growth.Furthermore, we anticipate that the Covid-19pandemic will accelerate the technology-drivenshifts that we have been seeing in recent years,and highlight the relative resilience of certainemerging markets, especially China, in thecurrent environment.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth3
FROM 2005 TO NOW:HOW EMERGING MARKETS HAVE EVOLVEDThe Emerging-MarketInvestment Case in 2005:The Emerging-MarketInvestment Case in 2020When the US ‘sneezed’, the world used to ‘catch a cold’Today the situation is different. The oldyardsticks previously used to understandactivity and growth in emerging markets,such as fixed-asset investment andelectricity demand, are no longer helpful:infrastructure has improved, consumersare generally wealthier, and technology(especially consumer-facing technology)is more advanced and widespread,allowing the leap-frogging of demandfor physical ‘bricks-and-mortar’ assetsvia the burgeoning e-commerce sector.First, it is a useful exercise to look back at how different the global economy looked just15 years ago. The irony of the often-heard phrase above is not lost on us as we navigatean unprecedented and relentless global novel virus outbreak that has brought muchsuffering, both socially and economically.Yet it is telling how much things havechanged over this time frame: historically,the caricature of an emerging markethas either been that of a commodityexporter (countries such as Brazil, SouthAfrica and Russia) or an outsourcedmanufacturing center (countries such asMexico, Vietnam and China).in the health-care sector, new roadsand airports in transport, bank branchconstruction, and the rapid developmentof 2G, 3G and 4G mobile networks.Returns could be low on these capitalexpenditure-heavy businesses, withregulation weighing heavily onexpectations.As a result, discussion about the growthtrajectory for emerging markets has beenlinked closely to discussion aboutconditions in developed markets and theglobal demand story. This perhaps madesense in the context of more generousallocations towards export sectors(materials, mining) in the index in the past,but it is not so valid now.Now that infrastructure is broadly inplace across much of the emergingworld, investment cases focus moreupon the efficient use of thatinfrastructure – particularly in anincreasingly digital world.Consumers: ‘Stuff’ Not ServicesSecondly, it used to be that domesticinvestment cases within emergingmarkets centered on the importance ofinfrastructure driving growth.Finally, in 2005, consumer-orientedinvestment cases in emerging marketscentred upon consumer goods, andgradual increases in basket size andaspiration towards higher-quality items.Service demand was not yet significant,on account of much lower wealth percapita, and also underdevelopedinfrastructure networks.Infrastructure needs sparked byincreasing urbanization and mobility inlarge metropolitan areas dominatedalmost every sector: we saw storerollouts by retailers, hospital buildingTwo decades ago, distribution was thekey differentiator; today, e-commercehas transformed this backdrop bydemocratizing access to goods andcustomers.The Need for InfrastructureHelped Drive the CommodityBoom of the 2000s4The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market GrowthWe can see the impact of thesetransitions in the changing shape of theemerging-market index, with fallingallocations to export sectors and risingallocations to more domestic-linkedactivity, including the IT and consumersectors.“Emerging markets have farmore room for self-generatedgrowth, independent ofthe global-demandenvironment.”Emphasis Moved toSelf-Generated GrowthThis dramatic shift in emphasis has realimplications for how we invest inemerging markets today; emergingmarkets have far more room for selfgenerated growth, independent of theglobal-demand environment.In particular, we see opportunities forcompanies to provide services to aconsumer that is more technologicallyempowered and increasingly wealthy;recent lockdown conditions related tothe containment of the pandemic canonly accelerate demand. In our view, thisenvironment is conducive for well-placedcompanies to compound earnings athigh returns, with reduced capital intensity.
INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSTo help us unearth attractive long-term opportunities against this transformed backdrop, we use globalinvestment themes, such as smart revolution, healthy demand, population dynamics and net effects, toidentify areas of structural growth. Below is a brief overview of the main dynamics behind these themes.Our smart revolution themereflects how a range oftechnologies are makingnetworks, systems, processesand products of all kindsincreasingly responsive andintelligent. The revolutionin connectivity is leadingto profound changes tobusiness models for manycompanies across theworld and in many sectors.These technologicaladvances are likely to leadto increased productivity.Demand for health-careproducts and services isincreasing as ageingpopulations fuel demandin developed economies,and expanding incomesand changing lifestylescreate new markets in theemerging economies.Populations are shiftingsignificantly – withunprecedented ageing inmature economies, andincome growth drivingchanges in developingeconomies. This leads todifferences in growthand fiscal burdens.The world has made thetransition from connectingplaces (landline phones),to connecting people(mobile phones), toconnecting devices(satellite navigation). Therapid rise in the ‘internetof things’ is transforminglifestyles and traditionalbusiness practices globally.The companies we find most attractive tend to be consumer-focused, and seek to exploit structural changesin behavior and demand. We believe these structural shifts in activity should be more independent of headlineGDP growth and global demand dynamics, allowing greater growth resilience while still benefitting fromeconomic development.1.NewTechnologiesExhibit 1: The Companies We Prefer Fit IntoThree Overlapping Categories:1 . New Technologies –and their supply chainsDigitalizationElectric VehiclesMemory2. Transition to Service Delivery –as facilitated by the developmentof the internet3. Consumption Upgrade2.Transition toService DeliveryTravel & EntertainmentAsset Management &Financial ServicesEducationFood DeliveryOnline PlatformsIndian Consumer3.ConsumptionUpgradeSource: Newton, 2020.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth5
“Investment ImplicationsToday’s technology is increasingly consumer-facingand serving a massive domestic market, makingservices cheaper and more accessible.”At the heart of all three broad categories lie education, food delivery andonline platforms, which are all providing significant growth opportunities forus, but we will now look at the three broader areas in more detail.1. NEW TECHNOLOGIESAs mentioned earlier, one of the most significant changes in emerging markets, andglobally, over the last ten to 15 years is a rapid acceleration in technological development.Inventions like the internet and the smartphone have spurred major technologicalbreakthroughs, and the role of technology in emerging markets has changed with it.Whereas historically technology in emerging markets was geared towards developedmarket companies and their manufacturing chains, today’s technology is increasinglyconsumer-facing and serving massive domestic markets, making services cheaperand more accessible.China’s RiseTechnological activity in emerging markets now is also more indigenous, with major centers of technological leadershipand innovation:In our view, the current trade warsimmering between the USadministration and China will onlyaccelerate China’s ambitions to closethe gap in self-sufficient technologicalleadership; pertinently, China has beenable to move up the value chain andhas increased its competitivenessirrespective of US tariffs. China overtook Japan in 2017 to become the second largest patent applicant in theworld, and its spending on research and development (R&D) has continued to rise at arapid pace. World Bank data shows that as of 2017, China had 1,177 R&D researchersper million of its population – three times the level it had in the 1990s, and in linewith the global average. The US produces many more researchers per million – at 4,321 – but that is morethan offset by China’s population being about four times larger.2Spending in R&DExhibit 2: In Million US DollarsAs a Percentage of GDP6006USChina5005S. KoreaEuropeanUnion& on& UKJapanGermanyS. 8Source: OECD. n-r-d.htm2000‘03‘062019.2 Source: The World Bank. D.P6?end 2017&locations CN-US&start 1996&view chart6The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth‘092019.‘12‘15‘18
“Large groups of emerging-market populations have become richer,and we are particularly focused on the rising per capita GDP inIndia and China, and the changing consumer needsassociated with growing wealth.”2. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (IT) IN THE DIGITAL AGEThe Rise of Electric VehiclesSuch technological advances, and thechanging nature of technological activityin emerging markets, has createdinvestment opportunities which barelyexisted ten years ago. One obvious andspecific example of how we seek to tapinto these new technological advancesis the electric-vehicle (EV) supply chain,which is a significant area of investmentinterest for us.More broadly, we are tapping into the rising global demand for IT services andsophisticated consultancy services from companies seeking to navigate the rapid shiftinto the digital age successfully. The focus of IT spend has gone from back-officecost-cutting to being a front-end revenue driver.security alerts will be handled by artificialintelligence (AI)-powered automation, and150 million people will have blockchainbased digital identities. By 2024, IDCpredicts that AI-enabled user interfacesand process automation will replace onethird of today's screen-based apps.5 Evenif the levels predicted are not fully realized,it is clear that such a backdrop placeshuge pressure on companies to invest toremain relevant, and to be able to servethe growing army of digital consumers.Having digital capability has now becomean essential, non-discretionary, elementof business strategies and corporatebudgets: in its 2018 integrated report, ITservices company SAP estimated that by2022, 60% of global GDP will be digitized,with growth in every industry driven bydigitally enhanced offerings, operationsand relationships, and almost US 7trillion in IT-related spending between2019 and 2022.4Three out of four EV battery manufacturersare now based in emerging markets,along with the majority of the world’slithium supplies.It is important to note that here, theinvestment case is driven as much byemerging-market demand, as bydemand from developed markets: of anestimated planned US 300bn to bespent by global automakers on thedevelopment and procurement ofbatteries and EVs, 45% of budgets havebeen targeted at China, according toReuters analysis of public data.3Indeed, in its 2019 predictions for theIT sector, International Data Corporation(IDC) anticipated that between 2018 and2023, 500 million new logical apps willbe created – equivalent to the numberbuilt over the last 40 years. By 2022, itpredicts that 50% of servers will encryptdata at rest and in motion, over 50% ofIn our view, emerging markets arespecifically well-placed to benefit fromdemand for services to assist thesecompanies with the digital transition,given that the key centers for offshoresoftware engineers include Argentina,Ukraine, Poland and India.3. INDIA AND CHINA DRIVE THE CONSUMPTION UPGRADEAt the same time that technology has become more advanced, large groups of emerging-market populations have become richer,and we are particularly focused on the rising per-capita GDP in India and China, and the changing consumer needs associatedwith growing wealth.Exhibit 3 shows just how much China and India are driving rapidly rising per capita GDP, whichin turn feeds the emerging-market consumer-demand story.Exhibit 3: Growth in per-Capita GDP in India and China Drives the Consumer-Consumption Story200ChinaPer capita 12‘13‘14‘15‘16‘17‘18Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, November 2019.3 Source: P40GI January 10, 2019.4 Source: 0110465919013502/a18-38214 4ex99d1.htm January 2019.5 Source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId prUS44417618 October 30, 2018.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth7
Next, we will look at some of the key drivers of growth within these two emerging-market giants.CHINAChina has seen a massive increase in the number of upper-middle classcitizens over the last decade. As shown in exhibit 4, the upper aspirantsegment of China’s urban population and above, now represent 49% ofthe Chinese population; this reveals a huge jump from just 8% in 2010.Exhibit 4: 29% Compounded Annual Growth Rate Rise in the Chinese Upper-Middle ClassUrban Population in China (Millions)Annual Household Disposable Income2018 Real RMB Terms20102018 350K616Affluent297-350K310Mass Affluent197-297K1063Upper Aspirant138-197K3431179-138K40325749-79K13489 49K7979 8% 49%GlobalAspirantLower AspirantPoorUpper Aspirant and Above Population, % of Total“One of the most interestingcharacteristics of thisgroup of spenders is that theyare predominantly young,with income beingconcentrated in those underthe age of 50.Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2019.One of the most interesting characteristics of this group of spenders is that they arepredominantly young, with income being concentrated in those under the age of 50.Indeed, according to the 2019 China Luxury Report,6 consumers born in the 1980s andlater are the largest luxury spending group in terms of both consumer numbers andtotal spending. This belies the perception from some in the developed world that Chinawill suffer the impact of a demographic time bomb owing to the Chinese government’sformer ‘one child’ policy, as China is far less vulnerable to declining consumption by theageing baby-boomer population than most developed markets. Below, exhibit 5 revealsthe relatively young age of China’s consumers.Exhibit 5: The Chinese Consumer Is Youngn Born 1965 - 1979n Born In 1980sn Born After 1990Total Number of Luxury Consumers by Generation – Millions20187.0 (29%)10.2 (43%)6.7 (28%)23.9Annual Luxury Spending by Generation – Billion RMB2018185 (22%)415 (56%)Source: China Luxury Report, 2018.170 (23%)770”This rapid change in China’s incomeprofile is associated with a shift in bothconsumption categories and behaviors.Obvious growth areas include luxuryand entertainment, but one of the mostinteresting demonstrations of greaterincome security that we have beenwatching is the ability and willingnessto save and invest for the future. Theincentives for doing so are high, againsta backdrop in which poor social safetynets are too common, as they are acrossmany of the emerging economies.For emerging-market investors, webelieve it is prudent to have significantbut selective exposure to insuranceand asset-management companies,which are managing the transition ofnewly created wealth away from bankdeposits and into savings products.Education is another favored homefor middle-class consumers, in anincreasingly competitive world.6 Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/ .ashx April 2019.8The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth
“With so many households able to upgrade their two-wheelersto small cars for the first time, it appears inevitable thatautomobile sales are poised to accelerate significantlyover the next ten years.INDIA”India too has seen growth in income per capita, but from a lower base, and the character of what we regardas the most attractive Indian consumer stories are not the same as those in China. In 2018, India had roughly97 million emerging consumer households (between US 4,000 and US 8,500 in household income),61 million aspiring households (c.US 8,500-US 40,000) and eight million affluent consumer households(US 40,000 ), giving a total of 166 million households actively participating in the modern consumer economy.Owing to urbanization (average household incomes in Indian cities are twice those in the countryside) and overall GDP growth,the number of households active in India’s consumer economy is estimated to have grown by 163 million to 329 million by 2030.Within this total, the number of emerging consumer households in India is tipped to rise to 132 million; aspiring households willnearly triple to 168 million, and the number with incomes above the affluent threshold will leap almost fourfold to 29 million.These transitions into higher wealth categories result in an ‘acceleration phenomenon’, whereby demand for products at particularprice points can grow at many times the overall rate of income growth, according to the shape of income distribution.Exhibit 6: Evolution of the Household-Income Profile in IndiaEmergingUS 4k - 8.5k1m1%166 million consumersAspiringUS 8.5k - 40k68 million consumersModern Consumer EconomyAffluent US 40k2018: 293 Million16m7%51m23%Low Income US 4k8m3%61m21%151m69%97m33%127m43%2030 Forecast: 386 Million329 million consumers2005: 219 MillionTotal HouseholdsHigh income andupper middle incomesegments29m7%1 in 4 households today168m44%1 in 2 householdsby 2030132m34%57m15% 70 million fewerlow income householdsby 2030Source: World Economic Forum, "Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: INDIA". January 2019.Projections based on People Research on India's Consumer Economy (PRICE) ICE 360 o Surveys (2014, 2016, 2018).Note: Income per household in real terms. Projections with annual GDP growth assumed at 7.5%.Diversified India ExposureAs a result of this shift in consumercohorts, the most attractiveopportunities we see in India arediversified across several differentconsumer categories, mostlydiscretionary in nature, including amovie theater chain, the local franchiseof a global pizza chain, a mortgagecompany, a jewelry retailer anda leading car manufacturerand distributor.Trends in the auto market are a goodexample of how consumption patternsare evolving: Over the last ten years, the market fortwo-wheelers, which typically sellfor under INR100,000 (c.US 1,400),has almost tripled in size, with annualsales rising to more than 21 million. Over the same period, sales ofpassenger cars (an entry-levelhatchback costs around INR300,000– c.US 4,200) have been much slower,climbing from 1.2 million to justunder 2.2 million.With so many households able toupgrade their two-wheelers to small carsfor the first time, it appears inevitable thatautomobile sales are poised to acceleratesignificantly over the next ten years.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth9
TRANSITION TO SERVICE DELIVERY –THE RISE OF INTERNET PLATFORMSTechnological advancements and rising GDP per capita, when coupled with the urban infrastructuredevelopments of the early 2000s (principally the broad availability of high-speed broadband along withthe smartphone), have created the perfect conditions for growth in the consumer services sectorsacross emerging markets.The internet, and related improvementsto logistics, have made consumer servicesmore accessible and affordable, creatinga huge opportunity for companies toreach consumers who were historicallydifficult to serve.“High penetration of mobile internet and availability ofonline payment infrastructure has accelerated the adoptionof paying for both online and offline transactionsvia mobile devices.”We are attracted to internet platformswhich can benefit from this structuralgrowth in demand for consumerservices, with business models rangingacross e-commerce, food delivery,classifieds platforms, music streamingand social media.Mobile Internet User GrowthChina is probably the best livedemonstration of a structural shift froma capital intensive, infrastructure-driveneconomy to a domestic consumptiondriven economy. The improvement inliving standards has led to significantchanges in consumption behavior bymoving away from basic needs tomore discretionary expenditures, fromphysical goods-oriented spending toconsumer and experience-orientedexpenditure. This has led to aproliferation and adoption of consumerand other services that are targeted atimproving people’s lives.Massive numbers of mobile internetusers and location-based connectivityenable consumers to discover and enjoymore services; this is a transition which isoccurring across emerging markets.stores and distance, where traditionallyconsumer choice has been limitedby fragmented and stale information,lack of access to services, and the inabilityto complete transactions efficiently.High penetration of mobile internetand availability of online paymentinfrastructure has accelerated theadoption of paying for both online andoffline transactions via mobile devices,which has accelerated the growthof e-commerce and made it easier toshift more areas of GDP online.Consumer-service e-commerceplatforms now enable consumers withlocation-based information discovery,decision making and real-timeprocessing to complete transactionson mobile devices, transformingconsumers’ ways of daily living.Consumer-service e-commercecompanies help connect consumerswith a large number of merchantswithout the constraint of physicalExhibit 7: Mix of Private Consumption per Capita Shifting Towards Service ConsumptionConsumption of Consumption of Physical 2022E2023E20162017E2018ESource: iResearch, quoted in Meituan Dianping prospectus (NB, excludes housing consumption), 2019.10The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth
“A major trend is that the increase in the easeand convenience of delivery is leading to moreconsumers choosing to order food onlineand receive delivery offline.CONCLUSION”Food DeliveryFood delivery is one of the consumerservices areas where we see the mostsustainable structural demand inemerging markets. Food consumption isthe most essential part of consumers’daily lives today; it is a purchase we makemost frequently, whether through buyinggroceries, pre-made meals, or restaurantdining, take-out or delivery. A majortrend is that the increase in the ease andconvenience of delivery is leading tomore consumers choosing to order foodonline and receive delivery offline.We believe the area is attractive becausepenetration levels remain low, whichleaves plenty of room for further growth.Exhibit 8 shows that food deliveryrepresents only 2% and 5% respectivelyof India and China’s food services sector,well below the levels in manydeveloped markets.We invest in food-delivery platformsacross emerging markets both directlythrough focused food-delivery players,as well as indirectly through broaderinternet platform companies.On-demand food delivery and onlinenon-restaurant food retail are in largeways replacing cooking at home orbuying pre-cooked food from grocerystores because these methods are fast,convenient and, in many cases, morecost-effective. This is especially prevalentin younger generations which may havelimited amounts of time and energy todedicate to cooking, and are morewilling to pay for convenience. On theother hand, as people spend more timeat work today, many people use theseservices and change their way of living tobe more accustomed to e-commerce.In this article, we have sought toshow that today’s drivers ofemerging-market growth are verydifferent from those in theearly 2000s.We have moved on from the idea ofemerging markets being dependentupon developed markets, eitheras commodity exporters oroutsourced-manufacturing centersfor developed-market corporations.The combination of improvedinfrastructure, higher wealth percapita, and significant technologicaladvances, allows room for greaterresilience and structural growth ledby domestic demand. Importantly,we think growth is likely to beincreasingly consumer-led, and nolonger linked to capital-intensiveinfrastructure development.In our view, it makes sense tocapture the value of these shifts intechnology and consumer conditionsthrough targeting what we believe tobe the most attractive runways forgrowth; the sustainable growth ratesof these businesses are often farhigher than that of the broaderemerging-market index.Exhibit 8: Food Delivery as a Percentage of Food Services (GMV)We anticipate that the dramaticchanges brought about by thecoronavirus pandemic will onlyaccelerate the technology-drivenshifts that we have identified in thisarticle as offering attractive long-termstructural growth stories.201915131211% ilRussiaAustraliaUSAGermanyUKJapanKorea0Source: Euromonitor, UBS estimates, GMV: Gross merchandise value. January 2019.The Changing Drivers of Emerging-Market Growth11
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emerging markets and Asian equity strategies. Sophia holds both MA (Hons) and MPhil degrees in Classics from the University of Cambridge. Sophia is a CFA1 charterholder. 3 Introduction 4 From 2005 to Now: How Emerging Markets Have Evolved The Emerging-Market Investment Case in 2005 The Emerging-Market Investment Case in 2020 5 Portfolio .
Conc Diagram- All Failures Cispa Data Avalon Date PCB Lot Number Igarashi TPS date codes. MB Panel Number VIAS Hole Location Failure 9-June'09 11-June'09 923 162 12-June'09 923 163,164 TBD TBD 1 13-June'09 923 164 15-June'09 923 166 16-June'09 923 167 17-June'09 923 168,171 18-June'09 923 171 19-June'09 923 171 20-June'09 923 171 22-June'09 923 173 23-June '09 923 179 24-June '09 923 .
Public Sector Governance of Emerging Risks, Hallmarks and drivers –Workshop report – May 2013 7 Executive summary This report identifies, describes and illustrates hallmarks and drivers of effective public sector governance of emerging risks. For this purpose, IRGC and selected experts have prepared six case studies on how emerging risks
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EU Tracker Questions (GB) Total Well Total Badly DK NET Start of Fieldwork End of Fieldwork 2020 15/12/2020 16/12/2020 40 51 9-11 08/12/2020 09/12/2020 41 47 12-6 02/12/2020 03/12/2020 27 57 15-30 26/11/2020 27/11/2020 28 59 13-31 17/11/2020 18/11/2020 28 60 12-32 11/11/2020 12/11/2020 28 59 12-31 4/11/2020 05/11/2020 30 56 13-26 28/10/2020 29/10/2020 29 60 11-31
The primary drivers, sometimes referred to as "key drivers," are system components or factors which contribute directly to achieving the aim. Secondary drivers are actions, interventions, or lower-level components necessary to achieve the primary drivers. Secondary drivers should be used to identify changes that can be tested in order to
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Andreas Wagner Head of Building Science Group Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Department of Architecture. Background Occupant behaviour has a strong influence on building energy performance Reasons for occupants’ interventions: dissatisfaction with building automation interfaces are not designed/equipped for intended purpose designers / building managers do not fully consider –or .
