A New Age For Trade And Supply Chain Finance - Bain & Company

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White PaperTrade Tech – A New Agefor Trade and Supply ChainFinanceIn collaboration with Bain & CompanySeptember 2018

ContentsForeword 3Background 4Financing: Suffering under the paper monster6Distributed ledger technology: Breaking the logjam8Benefits for governments 10The untapped value of underlying data10Different paths for different stakeholders11Mastering the change: No-regret action12Key contributors 13Sources 13 World Economic Forum2018 – All rights reservedNo part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means, includingphotocopying and recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.The views expressed are those of certain participants inthe discussion, and do not necessarily reflect the views ofall participants or of the World Economic Forum.REF 160118 - case 00039799

ForewordAt the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2017 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, the Governors of theSupply Chain and Transport community, and the Stewardship Board of the System Initiative on Shapingthe Future of International Trade and Investment, suggested that the Forum conduct research to betterunderstand the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on trade flows and supply chains. In particular,the research would identify how Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies can help facilitate trade in thefuture, when the world risks becoming even more fractured than it has been in the past.International trade and global value chains have been critical for both the wealth of nations andthe reduction of geopolitical tensions. The distribution of production around the world has fuelledglobalization while gradually reducing the gap between developed and developing countries. Internationaltrade has made the world economically more balanced and inclusive. Yet, still more remains to be done,and the poorest nations continue to capture a very limited share of global trade. Archaic processes posea significant obstacle for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and trade with emerging markets.Participating in international markets and value chains requires reducing trade barriers and establishingseamless processes at the core of an effective and efficient cross-border ecosystem. Improving borderprocesses and systems has become even more important because trade growth is slower comparedto historical highs, thus limiting its potential contribution to jobs, opportunity and economic growth.Experiments have shown that the current situation at many borders could be vastly improved.With the rise of technologies, such as the internet of things (IoT), blockchain and artificial intelligence,the means to facilitate international trade are growing, too. Digitalization and advanced technologieshave the potential to significantly reduce processing times and the cost of cross-border movements ofgoods. Transforming paper-based documentation into electronic formats and applying smart tools andtechnologies help to reduce trade barriers, particularly for small businesses and companies in higherrisk developing countries. The single window has demonstrated the dramatic improvements that can beachieved through digitization. However, the real potential lies in the combination and interplay of varioustechnologies, advanced analytics for better decision-making, the IoT for better supply chain visibility, andartificial intelligence for mitigating money-laundering and other risks.Trade finance and supply chain finance are important enablers of international trade. However, financialinstruments, such as letters of credit and guarantees, are particularly unattractive for small-tickettransactions because of the relatively high operational costs. Distributed ledger and other technologicalinnovations promise groundbreaking advances in trade and supply chain finance by reducing costs andease of use. Established vendors offer many off-the-shelf, innovative trade finance solutions: likewise,supply chain finance solutions from vendors are used by banks. In financing, third-party technologyplatforms and crowdfunding platforms have also recently emerged.This White Paper – a joint initiative of the Supply Chain and Transportation industries and the SystemInitiative on Shaping the Future of International Trade and Investment – provides a first look at thenarrow topic of trade and supply chain finance, as well as a snapshot of the status of technologicaldevelopments, as the starting point for deeper and broader studies.Wolfgang LehmacherHead of Supply Chain and Transportation Industries,World Economic ForumTrade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance3

BackgroundDistributed ledger and other innovations offer newefficiencies and can help dismantle financing barriers forsmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and emergingmarkets. Global economic growth hinges on efficient crossborder trade (see Figure 1).While not hugely problematic for large, multinationalcompanies with established trading and supply chainrelationships, archaic processes pose a significant obstacleto SMEs and trade with emerging markets. The AsianDevelopment Bank estimates there was a 1.5 trillion tradefinancing gap in 2017, representing roughly 10% of globalmerchandise trade volumes. This is particularly importantfor Asian countries since almost three-quarters of totaldocumentary import and export trade transactions originateor arrive in Asia. South Korea is the largest issuer of importletters of credit, followed by Bangladesh and China andHong Kong the largest markets for advising export letters ofcredit. SMEs and midcap companies represent 75% of thetotal trade gap (see Figure 2).Left unsolved, the trade finance gap will rise to morethan 2.4 trillion by 2025, according to Bain & Companyestimates. However, a viable solution has emerged. Bain’smodeling estimates that new digital technologies, especiallydistributed ledger technology, can reduce a large part ofthis gap, facilitating about 1.1 trillion of new trade volumesglobally (see Figures 3 and 4). Trade allows countries tospecialize in industries; it helps technologies and ideasto spread, and yields economies of scale. But a majorimpediment stands in the way of expanding trade andmaking it more efficient and safe: namely, paper-intensive,manual processes.The digitalization of trade processes offers potentially hugebenefits to support the massive flow of goods worldwide.For example, the United Nations Economic and SocialCommission for Asia and the Pacific adopted the FrameworkAgreement on Facilitation of Cross-Border PaperlessTrade in Asia and the Pacific in 2016 to advance regionalcoherence. The agreement is designed to encourageadoption of digital tools that will facilitate trade. Someestimates suggest full implementation could boost AsiaPacific exports by as much as 257 billion annually, while thetime required to export could fall by 44%, according to theUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE).What do traditional trade and supply chain processeslook like in practice? IBM and Maersk recently ran a testshipment of flowers from Kenya to the port of Rotterdam,The Netherlands, which resulted in a stack of nearly200 communications documents – a big pile of paperaccumulated along the way. The costs associated withsuch processing and administration of trade documents areestimated to be up to one-fifth of the physical transportationcosts. Clearly, digitalizing the supply chain workflowwould not only increase transaction efficiency. In addition,Figure 1: Global trade flows are large and increasingEUR toNA2016A&O toEUR 529B2016NA toEUREUR toA&O 356BIntraEURIntraNA201620162016 654B 4,106B 1,105B2016NA toA&O 462BIntraA&OKey:North America (NA)Latin America (LA)Europe (EUR)IntraLA2016A&O toNA 114BCISAfricaLA toA&OMiddle EastAsia & Oceania (A&O)A&O toLA2016 138BSource: WTO world region export analysis, October 2017; Bain & Company analysis42016 847BTrade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance2016 146B2016 1,028B2016 2,745B

governments are seeking greater visibility into trade andsupply chain documentation to counter smuggling and drugtrafficking, for example. All these issues are converging tomotivate digitalization of the supply chain, a process that hasbeen slow to date.Indeed, and as part of the World Economic Forum’s workon enabling trade, Bain & Company estimated several yearsago that if countries could reduce just two supply chainbarriers – border administration and telecom/transportinfrastructure – to half of global best-practice levels, globalgross domestic product (GDP) could rise by nearly 5%,while trade could improve by almost 15%. By comparison,eliminating all import tariffs could increase global GDP just0.7%, while boosting trade by 10%. The estimate still holdstrue today.In fact, the tide may have turned. Individual firms andgovernments are starting to digitalize and automatetheir trade and supply chain processes by deployingrelatively new technologies. This includes distributedledger technology, often referred to as blockchain, whichis associated with the protocol for the digital currencybitcoin. Intergovernmental organizations, such as theUnited Nations and the World Trade Organization, have alsobeen encouraging investment in new technologies to helppromote economic development.Many countries are developing single windows that serveas one simple point of entry for submitting regulatorydocuments and other supporting evidence whenmerchandise is imported or exported. Single window is anelectronic process, usually through a web-based interface,in which trade and transport companies can providestandardized information and documents. Without such anoption, companies must separately submit information anddocumentation to participating agencies, which typicallyoperate different systems and procedures. Moreover,some countries still maintain manual systems. In Senegal,for instance, the electronic single window reduced borderpreclearance and clearance processing time by 90%, froman average of two weeks to just one day, according toPaperless Trading: How Does It Impact the Trade System?, aWhite Paper by the World Economic Forum and the UNECE.The cost of border processes has decreased by 60%, whilethe streamlined system has allowed the border agencies toreassign staff to other priority areas.Alone the argument for efficiency – that is, the reductionof waste, fraud, delays and transportation costs, amongothers – would carry the day. Individual banks, for example,have each lost hundreds of millions of dollars in recent yearsbecause of metals trading scams that rely on fake paperwarehouse receipts. But technology can address otherconcerns as well. The value of provenance is increasing formany industries. Food companies must ensure the originof organic crops, more mining companies want to confirmfair-trade practices for their entire supply chain, and manyretailers seek to track fair-trade and sustainable practices forthe goods they sell. Three large banks have teamed up withsupermarket chain Sainsbury’s and consumer goods groupUnilever to launch a distributed ledger system that rewardsMalawian tea farmers who use sustainable methods withcheaper finance. The system collects data from the farmersbased on social and environmental questions ranging fromwater usage to compliance with anti-slavery laws. This datawill help Sainsbury’s and Unilever to achieve their objectiveof ensuring their supply chain is socially and environmentallysustainable.Figure 2: A global trade finance demand gap of 1.5 trillion stems mainly from Asia-Pacific and SMEsSource: ADB 2017 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs SurveyTrade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance5

Financing: Suffering under the papermonsterAs one area of trade and supply chains, financing wouldreap huge benefits from emerging technologies. Globally,demand is strong for supply chain finance. Bain & Companyestimates that demand is expanding by 5-15% a year in theAmericas and Western Europe, and 10-25% in Asia, withfood and retailing among the most active industries. Yet,as noted above, much of that demand remains unmet orunderserved. As mentioned before, the Asian DevelopmentBank estimated a global trade finance gap of 1.5 trillionin 2016, with most of the underserved businesses beingin East Asia and the Pacific. The gap stems largely fromhugely underserved SMEs, combined with the still massivevolume of paper required for communication amongcustoms brokers, freight forwarders, transportation carriersand myriad government agencies. Paper-based, manualprocesses, some created centuries ago, lead to complexityand delays, introduce errors and risks, and stand in theway of reliable, real-time information gathering and trackingrequired for credible financing decisions.Supply chain finance and trade finance definedSupply chain finance allows businesses to lengthen theirpayment terms to their suppliers. Not a loan, it is rather anextension of the buyer’s accounts payable. For suppliers, itrepresents a sale of their receivables. The buyer optimizesworking capital, and the supplier generates additionaloperating cash flow.Trade finance consists of products, such as letters ofcredit, to reduce transaction risk and finance working capitalrequirements. Simply put, an exporter requires an importerto prepay the shipped goods. The importer reduces risk byasking the exporter to document that the goods have beenshipped. The importer’s bank assists by issuing a letter ofcredit to the exporter (or to the exporter’s bank), providingpayment upon presentation of documents. Increasingly,though, trade occurs through open account transactions,where the goods are shipped and delivered before paymentis due. That increases risk for the exporter, who now needsmore financing of working capital.Figure 3: Distributed ledger technology will bring in new tradeGlobal trade merchandise volume (not drawn to scale) 2025Payment advances5 Traditional will continue tomigrate to open account dueto greater trust and visibilityToday4 30% or 1.1 trillion of newPayment advancestrade volume will result due toDLT removing barriersOpen account3 Small portion of open accountOpen accountTraditionaldocumentarytradeSource: Bain & Company analysis6Trade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance5DLT open account(from documentary trade)4DLT documentary trade(from new trade)3DLT documentary trade(from open account)2DLT documentary trade(from traditional)1Traditional documentarytradewill move to DLT for enhancedrisk mitigation and cheaperfinancing 40% or 0.9 trillion oftraditional will move to DLTfor better service levels andlower fees21 40% or 0.9 trillion oftraditional will remain

Banks have tried for decades to reduce inefficiencies bytransforming trade and supply chain finance. The typicalcost-to-income ratio in traditional trade finance is 50-60%,meaning that more than half of the price charged to clientsfor trade finance needs to cover operational expenses evenbefore covering the costs of risk, liquidity and capital. Lettersof credit and guarantees are particularly unattractive forsmall-ticket transactions and SMEs because of the relativelyhigh operational costs.Structural inefficiencies in supply chains, which arefragmented in nature, and the continued heavy relianceon paper have prevented a broad transformation. Manycorporate participants have been unwilling to invest inintegrating with freight forwarders, government bodiesand document preparers, and many banks have beenreluctant to invest as long as corporate adoption remainslow. So, although trade is getting more efficient for largemultinationals and companies in developed countries, smallcompanies in poorer countries are paying a high price.The cost factor, along with rising trust between buyers andsuppliers in established supply chains and e-commercechannels, has prompted a number of companies to shiftfrom traditional trade to trade facilitation and working capitalfinance solutions through open account trading (see Figure5). In open account transactions, goods are shipped anddelivered before payment is due, usually in 30 to 90 days.However, many companies still require traditional tradesolutions, particularly small businesses and companies inhigher-risk developing countries.Figure 4: Distributed ledger technology could enable 1 trillion in new trade over the next decade, translating to 1.5% GDPgrowth over 2017 levelsNotes: *Based on export value; includes effect of DLT enabling new tradeSource: CGE /Gravity ModelTrade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance7

Distributed ledger technology: Breakingthe logjamTraditional trade and supply chain flows involve many typesof loosely connected participants, which makes reconcilingand verifying information painful. Distributed ledgers, bycontrast, operate as secure, shared databases, where eachparticipant has a copy of the stored data. When a transferof funds or information about a shipment is recorded, it isvalidated, made transparent and available to all participantscollectively, and updated across the network almostimmediately. Only certified parties can initiate transactionsby using encrypted digital signatures, which underpin “smartcontracts”, a digital protocol that verifies and enforces acontract without third parties. The system’s design itselfguarantees one shared version of the truth; moreover, it isfaster, cheaper and safer than manual systems.Thus, distributed ledger technology is well suited toeliminating some inefficiencies in trade and supply chainsthrough the following features:–––––Faster credit risk assessment from the transactionhistoryMinimized human error in document checksInstant verification and reconciliation of recordsAutomatic execution of workflow steps through smartcontractsInstant, secure and low-cost exchange of dataDistributed ledger technology may not be necessary or thebest choice in certain situations. Some digital platformsalready work well with a central ledger and central authority.Increasingly, though, the technology is proving its potentialas a reliable means of unleashing faster, more efficient andless costly trade. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA)has applied a distributed ledger system to reduce the timefor submitting, verifying and authorizing an internationaltrade transaction from over a week to just 2.5 hours. Thepilot was run on a transaction in which Spain-based FRIMEbought 25 tons of frozen tuna from Pinsa Congelados ofMexico; payment was made using a letter of credit issued byBBVA in Spain and processed by Bancomer in Mexico.If trade transactions shorten from a week to a couple ofhours, resulting in a sharp drop in lead times, then theeffects on inventory costs, indirect labour and transportationcosts are easily imagined. Bain & Company estimates thatdistributed ledger technology, if adopted the right way byall participants in the trade ecosystem, could reduce tradefinance operating costs by 50-70% and improve turnaroundtimes three- to fourfold, depending on the trade financeproduct involved. (Wait times for documents, for example,can be reduced far more than wait times for approval of acredit increase.)Distributed ledgers will help to truly revolutionize tradewhen applied in conjunction with other technologies. TheseFigure 5: Trade finance has been moving to open account solutionsLETTERS OF CREDIT ARELOSING SHAREWHILE OPEN ACCOUNTSOLUTIONS SURGELetters of creditOther trade trillionsPrimarily cashadvance paymentsPrimary openaccount solutionsTraditional trade(letters of credit,document collections)Source: World Bank; ICC Global Survey Rethinking Trade and Finance (annual reports 2010-2015); MISYS Financing Future Supply Chains8Trade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance

include advanced analytics to enhance decision-making,the internet of things (IoT) to improve the flow of goods,artificial intelligence (AI) to strengthen anti-money-launderingand other risk management controls, and virtual assistants(software agents that perform tasks for an individual orbusiness) to automate client service. Abundant off-theshelf, technology-driven trade finance solutions existfrom established vendors, such as BankTrade, Finastraand Surecomp. Likewise, banks are using supply chainfinance solutions offered by vendors, including Intellect andPremium Technologies. Third-party technology platforms,such as PrimeRevenue, GT Nexus and Tungsten, as wellas crowdfunding platforms, have also emerged to facilitatesupply chain finance (Figure 6).These technologies can amplify the benefits of distributedledger technology in several ways:–––Tokenization – The replacement of sensitive data witha non-sensitive equivalent symbol to ensure securityenables the creation of a digital identity for goods intransactions, such as labelling goods for supply chaintransparency and traceability.Smart contracts – These verify and execute contractsautomatically, which synchronizes delivery and paymentof goods or services.IoT devices – Communications between a networkof these devices can be built on distributed ledger––technology to reduce the need for central control andthe risk of data tampering.AI tools – Distributed ledgers’ ability to maintain privacyand integrity of data promotes data exchange, whichwill help encourage development of AI tools that could,for instance, predict a company’s working capitalrequirements.Application programming interfaces (APIs) – Bygoverning how one application can communicate andinteract with another, these sets of requirements allowcommunication between applications and distributedledgers.A recent application combining several technologies wasused by the Australian cotton trader Brighann CottonMarketing for a shipment of 88 bales of cotton from Texas(USA) to the Chinese port of Qingdao. The shipmentrepresents the first time two separate banks – in this case,the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Wells Fargo– have used a combination of distributed ledger, smartcontracts and the IoT to facilitate a trade transaction. IoTsensors allowed the banks to monitor the shipment’s route,triggering the smart contract to release payment for thecotton once it crossed a predefined location.Figure 6: New technologies enable the digitalization of nDataentryOpticalcharacterrecognition(OCR)Text recognitionfrom tradedocuments tominimize data entryArtificialintelligence(AI)text extracted fromIntelligent anddocumentspersonalized(integrateOCR withmarketing: Offertransaction process)new product salesor client promotionsbased on insightsEnhanced KYCon clients’ needs(e.g., web scrape)and behaviorsAdvancedanalytics(AA)Populate fields tAfter transactionDocumentcheckCompliancecheckCheck forcompleteness ofdocuments basedon transaction/product typeScrape documentsfor AML keyword hitProblemresolutionClient mgmt.information systemIntelligentproblemValidate/remediate data withcross-references,machine learningresolution: TrackContextualfiltering: Identify individual error ratesand flag users insuspicious orunusual activity and need of remediationblock suspicioustransactions basedEfficient process and productivityon predictivemonitoring, and predictive analytics toindicatorsdetect patternsReports enableenhancedoperational andstrategicdecisionsBridge data flow and communication:Integrate data from different systems into single interfaceEase of tracking goods anddocuments; dynamic pricing andfinancing triggered by shipmentevents; automated paymentsrelease based on “smart contracts”Internet ofthings (IoT)Distributedledgertechnology(DLT)Transaction processingCreate smart letteror credit as smartcontract ondistributed ledger auto notificationsReplace documentation, checks, dataentry, validation,with single digitalrecordTrack document locations:Track goods (location,volume, quality)Real time verification and reconciliation; workflowexecuted as per smart contract conditions;replace payment and funds transfer with cryptocurrencySource: Bain & CompanyTrade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain Finance9

Benefits forgovernmentsThe untapped valueof underlying dataGovernments at all levels also drown in paperwork andshould accelerate adoption of digital technologies for tradeprocesses, which will help companies, especially smallbusinesses, become more competitive exporters. Somegovernments are taking the lead in this regard. To reducefraud and errors, the de facto central banks of Hong Kongand Singapore recently announced plans to link tradefinance platforms they are developing with distributedledger technology. Linking the two platforms is part of abroader plan between the Hong Kong Monetary Authorityand the Monetary Authority of Singapore to collaborate ondistributed ledger and other financial technology.The potential for greater efficiencies and an improvedcustomer experience afforded by distributed ledger andother technologies have prompted many large banks andcorporate enterprises to launch proof-of-concept and testcase scenarios, with full commercial take-up expected inmany cases within three to five years.Besides digitizing their own documentation, governmentswill draw benefits from digitally linking regulators – inagricultural departments, central banks, port authoritiesand other agencies – so that, for instance, one digitalsignature works for all of them. Even within the EuropeanUnion, countries and government departments have yet toharmonize their documents. They should include distributedledger technology as part of any relevant, forward-lookingregulatory considerations, such as cross-border foodimports. With some governments already starting tomake these moves, the laggards will become increasinglydisadvantaged.10Trade Tech – A New Age for Trade and Supply Chain FinanceTo be sure, this evolution will likely not unfold the waymany banks envisioned it would a decade ago, whenthey were at the centre of supply chain finance. Currently,substantial value lies in the underlying data on trade andshipping flows, and corporations, third-party platformsand online marketplaces are developing data for their ownpurposes. By accumulating data on counterparties’ historyof payment or delivery, and on their reliability of paying andother characteristics, companies owning the data sharplyreduce the risk (and thereby the cost) of extending finance toparticipants. Reliable, copious data lead to better decisionswith lower risk for a much larger pool of customers. In return,companies will need to reassure customers that their dataare secure at every point along the supply chain, and will notbe misused.

Different paths for different stakeholdersHow are the early stages of distributed ledger and other newtechnologies playing out? The answer varies depending onthe stakeholder:Banks are exploring several options to replace paper withdigital approaches, ranging from partnerships with platformproviders and accounting firms to using APIs to ensure theircustomers are connected with other key providers. Mostbanks have made trade and supply chain finance a highpriority for specific trade corridors or supply chains, withsome joining consortiums such as Batavia, launched byUBS and IBM, or R3, which has attracted more than 100financial entities. In Europe, seven of the continent’s largestbanks have formed we.trade, a consortium for building andoperating a trade finance platform targeting SMEs and usingIBM technology. Other banks have partnered with financialtechnology firms, as Barclays has done with Israeli start-upWave.Large corporations are digitalizing their extended supplychains and, in some cases, directly investing in their owntechnology platforms to provide financing to suppliers andothers along the chain. For companies such as Carrefour,Cargill and Toyota, these moves are not intended to becomebusiness lines, but to improve the operation of existing supplychains by automating manual processes.Logistics, transport and freight forwarding companiesare investing in digitalizing their operations and partneringwith distributed ledger infrastructure providers to experimentwith test cases. One major Asian logistics firm, for example,accumulates data related to customers’ finances, much ofwhich is required by customs officials and insurance carriers.The firm is considering how to use that data in ways itscustomers would value.Governments are pushing to digitally connect the tradeecosystem. Initiatives such as the Singapore NationalTrade Platform, Dubai Blockchain and Trade Receivablese-Discounting System in India aim to bring together themajor stakeholders. Particularly in the Asia-Pacific region,governments see expanded trade and seamless supplychains as a way of attracting investment in manufacturing thatwill create jobs. They welcome technologies that will optimizecustoms procedures, reduce corruption in ports and otherchokepoints, and funnel trade flows through a single digitalplatform.So far, these efforts have proceeded in largely piecemealfashion among individual companies, countries or groups ofbanks. Widespread adoption of distributed ledger technologyhinges on overcoming three main challenges:–Accounting, enterprise resource planning and otherlarge information-technology (IT) infrastructure providersare building the data platforms for supply chains to providecorporate customers with rich data that help to inform betterfinancing decisions. Partnerships focused on supply chainfinancing have formed between banks and accountingsoftware providers. Although the software firms have accessto the data, they are less likely to offer direct financingbecause it is not their primary business, and because theylack the expertise or balance sheet appetite.Specialized platform providers, such as Tradeshift andPrimeRevenue, are building ways to connect the ecosystem,especially by connecting buyers a

Digitalization and advanced technologies have the potential to significantly reduce processing times and the cost of cross-border movements of goods. Transforming paper-based documentation into electronic formats and applying smart tools and . to SMEs and trade with emerging markets. The Asian Development Bank estimates there was a 1.5 .

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