2005 LFV Air Emissions Inventory Forecast - Metro Vancouver
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsJanuary 2010Inventory & Forecast and BackcastDetailed Listing of Results and Methodology
Additional InformationQuestions and comments concerning the information presented in this report canbe addressed to:Metro VancouverPolicy & Planning DepartmentAir Quality Policy & Management Division4330 Kingsway, Burnaby, B.C. V5H 4G8Telephone: (604) 451-6039Fax:(604) 436-6701Website: www.metrovancouver.orgE-mail: aqinfo@metrovancouver.org
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010PrefaceThis document is intended to provide detailed technical information to accompany the report titled “2005Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory & Forecast and Backcast” (Metro Vancouver, 2007). Anemission inventory is a listing of all sources of air pollution within a defined region. It provides informationon the types of emission sources in the Metropolitan Vancouver region, their location and the types andamounts of air contaminants emitted, for a given time frame. The emission inventory is an essential toolfor air quality management planning in the region.Another essential tool in the air quality planning process is a forecast and backcast of emissions.Emission backcasting involves revisiting previous emission inventories and updating them for consistencywith the current year inventory in terms of methodology and study area. This allows for an equitableanalysis of emission trends.Emission forecasting is the process of estimating future emissions by projecting changes in activity(growth or decline) combined with changes in emission rates or controls. The forecast allows for anassessment of future air emission levels and impacts of emission reduction measures.The study area for the 2005 Lower Fraser Valley airshed emission inventory encompasses virtually theentire Metro Vancouver area (formerly known as the Greater Vancouver Regional District); the southwestern portion of the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) and Whatcom County in the State ofWashington.AcknowledgementsThe cooperation and assistance of the following individuals and organizations is gratefully acknowledged: Tony Wakelin, Michael Rensing, Jeremy Lawrence, Duncan Ferguson, Lloyd Phillips, Chris Procter,Steffanie Warriner, and other staff – BC Ministry of Environment Mark Robbins, David Poon, and other staff – BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands Jennifer Bresciani – Office of the Fire Commissioner, Emergency Management BC Becky Everett – BC Cattlemen’s Association Ida Thom – BC Ministry of Provincial Revenue Dave O’Neil – BC Statistics Alicja Rudzki and other staff – BC Ferries Gary Way, Carol Duffy, Chris Wilcock and other staff – Terasen Gas Clark Lim, Steve Stewart, Dave Gourley, Ken Miller, Clive Rock – South Coast BC TransportationAuthority Susan Floro, Hardeep Mehrotara, Chris Boxall – Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Hugh Sloan and other staff – Fraser Valley Regional District Dr. Shabtai Bittman – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Lynn Nadon, Andrew Green, Richard Holt, June Yoo Rifkin, Martin Mullan, Pascal Bellavance, Colindi Cenzo, Henry Quon, Kelli Dawson, Cristina Dumitras, Brett Taylor, Mahesh Kashyap, John Ayres,Marc Deslaurier, Lianne Noseworthy, Yann Guilbault, Martin Jeanson, Diep Le , Michelle Raizenneand other staff – Environment Canada Habib Abdillai-Hassan, Elham Azarafshar, Hertsel Labib – Natural Resources Canada Gail King and other staff – Northwest Clean Air Agency Craig Harvey, Larry Landman, David Brzezinski and other staff – United States EnvironmentalProtection Agency Sally Otterson and other staff – Washington State Department of Ecologyi
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and Backcast January 2010John Skowronski – Canadian Petroleum Products InstituteKelvin Campbell, Maria Furberg, Nancy Chan and other staff – RWDI Consulting Engineers &ScientistsRick Bryant, Garth McSween – Chamber of Shipping of British ColumbiaPhilip Nelson, Mitch Hughes and other staff – Council of Marine Carriers of BCBC Marine Vessel Air Quality Working GroupTrudi Trask – Vancouver International Airport AuthorityChristine Rigby – Vancouver Port Authorityand the countless commercial/industrial facilities, utilities, crown corporations, government agencies andother organizations and stakeholders who provided the necessary data to carry out this project.Funding assistance provided by the Fraser Valley Regional District in carrying out this study is gratefullyacknowledged.Cover PhotographsAutumn leaves: Neil GuernseyTugboat and fireplace: Laurie Bates-Frymelii
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010Table of ContentsList of Tables . viList of Figures . xiiList of Acronyms. xiv1.Introduction . 12.Study Area . 13.Air Contaminants Inventoried. 33.1 Common Air Contaminants and Ammonia. 33.2 Greenhouse Gases . 44.Sources of Emissions. 6References . 7Appendix A – Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Point Sources . A-1A.1 Point Source Emission Estimation Methodology. A-1A.2 Quality Control and Assurance . A-3A.3 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Point Sources. A-3Moderate Scenario.A-4Low-High Scenarios .A-5A.4 Emission Results for Point Sources . A-5References – CLFV Point Sources . A-13Appendix B – Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Area Sources . B-1B.1 Area Source Emission Estimation Methodology. B-2B.1.1 Agricultural Sources .B-2B.1.2 Burning .B-8B.1.3 Gasoline Marketing. B-10B.1.4 Landfills. B-12B.1.5 Natural Sources. B-13B.1.6 Solvent Evaporation . B-14B.1.7 Heating . B-16B.1.8 Miscellaneous Area Sources . B-18B.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Area Sources. B-21Moderate Scenario. B-21Low-High Scenarios . B-22B.3 Emission Results for Area Sources . B-23iii
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010References – CLFV Area Sources . B-25Appendix C – Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Mobile Sources . C-1C.1 On-Road Motor Vehicles . C-1C.1.1 On-Road Motor Vehicles Emission Estimation Methodology. C-1Common Air Contaminants . C-1Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKmT) . C-1Development of Vehicle Emission Factors . C-2Vehicle Population Data. C-3Vehicle Age Distribution . C-3Diesel Fractions . C-5Annual Mileage Accumulation Rates . C-7Fractions of Vehicle Kilometres Traveled . C-8Fuel Quality and Meteorological Data. C-8Final Emission Factors. C-10AirCare and Inspection and Maintenance Programs . C-10Greenhouse Gases from On-Road Vehicles . C-11Actual Fuel Consumed. C-12Diesel Sales . C-13Gasoline Sales . C-13Adjusted Total Fuel Consumption. C-13Vehicle Fuel Consumption Rates. C-14GHG Emission Factors . C-16Propane and Natural Gas-Fuelled Vehicles . C-17Road Dust . C-17C.1.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for On-Road Motor Vehicles . C-18Backcast Assumptions 1990-2000 Emissions . C-18Forecast Assumptions 2010-2030 Emissions. C-21Moderate Scenario. C-23Low Scenario . C-23High Scenario. C-23C.1.3 Emission Results for On-Road Motor Vehicles . C-27C.2 Aircraft . C-31C.2.1 Aircraft Emission Estimation Methodology . C-31C.2.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Aircraft Emissions . C-34Moderate Scenario. C-34Low-High Scenarios . C-35C.2.3 Spatial Allocation for Aircraft Emissions. C-35C.2.4 Emission Results for Aircrafts. C-37C.3 Railways . C-38C.3.1 Railway Emission Estimation Methodology. C-38C.3.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Railway Emissions. C-39Moderate Scenario. C-40iv
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010Low-High Scenarios . C-40C.3.3 Spatial Allocation . C-40C.3.4 Emission Results for Railways . C-42C.4 Marine Vessels . C-42C.4.1 Ocean-Going Vessels (OGVs) . C-43Ocean-Going Vessels Emission Estimation Methodology. C-43Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Ocean-Going Vessels . C-47Emission Results for OGVs . C-51C.4.2 Harbour Vessels . C-53Harbour Vessels Emission Estimation Methodology . C-53Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Harbour Vessels. C-55Emission Results for Harbour Vessels. C-55C.4.3 Ferries. C-56Ferries Emission Estimation Methodology. C-56Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Ferries . C-57Emission Results for Ferries . C-58C.4.4 Fishing Vessels . C-59Fishing Vessels Emission Estimation Methodology. C-59Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Fishing Vessels . C-59Emission Results for Fishing Vessels . C-59C.4.5 Results for All Commercial Marine Vessels . C-60C.5 Non-Road Engines . C-61C.5.1 Non-Road Engines Emission Estimation Methodology. C-61C.5.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology for Non-Road Engines . C-61Moderate Scenario. C-61Low-High Scenarios . C-62C.5.3 Spatial Allocation . C-62C.5.4 2005 Emission Results for Non-Road Engines . C-62References – CLFV Mobile Sources . C-64Appendix D – Canadian Lower Fraser Valley 2005 Emissions by City/Municipality. D-1Appendix E – Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Diesel Particulate Matter Emissions.E-1Appendix F – Ocean-Going Vessels Addendum .F-1Appendix G – 2005 Emission Inventory for Whatcom County, USA . G-1G.1 Results and Methodology . G-1G.2 Backcast/Forecast Methodology. G-1References – 2005 Emission Inventory for Whatcom County, USA . G-7v
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010List of TablesTable A.4.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Point Source Emission Inventory By North American Industry Classification System Codes(metric tonnes).A-6Table A.4.2:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Point Source Emissions Inventory by Facility and Municipality (metric tonnes).A-7Table B.1.1.1:Emission Factors for Livestock Enteric Fermentation andDust Generation .B-3Table B.1.1.2:Emission Factors for Livestock Manure Management .B-4Table B.1.1.3:Particulate Emission Factors for Application of Fertilizersand Pesticides .B-5Table B.1.1.4:Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors for Application of Limestoneand Dolomite .B-6Table B.1.1.5:Particulate Emission Factors for Tilling Operations Per Season.B-6Table B.1.1.6:Number of Tilling Events Per Crop Per Season in the Metro Vancouverand FVRD .B-7Table B.1.1.7:Particulate Emission Factors from Wind Erosion by Crop, Averagedfor the Canadian Lower Fraser Valley.B-8Table B.1.2.1:Base Quantities and Emission Factors for Burning.B-8Table B.1.3.1:Emission Factors for Automobile Service Stations and Bulk FuelUsers (g VOC/litre) . B-12Table B.1.7.1:Base Quantities and Emission Factors for Heating. B-17Table B.1.8.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Base Quantities andEmission Factors for Construction . B-19Table B.1.8.2:Base Quantity and Emission Factors for Tobacco Smoke. B-20Table B.1.8.3:Base Quantities and Emission Factors for Meat Cooking. B-20vi
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010Table B.1.8.4:Miscellaneous Ammonia Emission Factors. B-21Table B.3.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Area Source Emission Inventoryby Sector (metric tonnes) . B-23Table B.3.2:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Area Source Emission Inventoryby Municipality (metric tonnes). B-24Table C.1.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley (CLFV) VKmT Extrapolated from2003 CLFV VKmT Provided by TransLink (in TransLink's Groupings) . C-1Table C.1.2:2005 VKmT for the Canadian Lower Fraser Valley by M6.2Ccategories . C-2Table C.1.3:MOBILE 6.2C Category Code and Description . C-3Table C.1.4:ICBC Gasoline and Diesel Vehicles Registered and Licensed to Operatein Territories D,E,H, and Z as of June 30, 2005 . C-4Table C.1.6:Diesel Vehicle Population Distribution by MOBILE 6.2 Classes . C-6Table C.1.7:Annual Mileage Accumulation Rates by Vehicle Category (miles) . C-7Table C.1. 8:Fraction of VkmT Accumulated by Vehicle Type . C-8Table C.1.9:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Seasonal Fuel Reid Vapour Pressure andMeteorological Data. C-9Table C.1.10:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Ambient HourlyTemperatures (oF) . C-9Table C.1.11:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Ambient Hourly RelativeHumidity (%) . C-9Table C.1.12:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley On-Road Motor VehicleEmission Factors for Common Air Contaminants (g/VkmT) . C-10Table C.1.13:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley MOBILE 6.2C InputParameters to Model AirCare Inspection and Maintenance Program. C-11Table C.1.14:Fuel Adjustment Factors. C-13vii
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010Table C.1.15:Fuel Consumption Rates (L/100 km), Model Years 1960-2030,Under Three Scenarios . C-15Table C.1.16:Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for On-Road Vehicles (kg/L). C-16Table C.1.17:Emission Factors for Road Dust from On-Road Vehicles . C-18Table C.1.2.1:Backcast Assumptions . C-19Table C.1.2.2:Adjusted Historic VKmT Based on TransLink – Provided Total VKmTand 2003 Distribution Across Classes. C-19Table C.1.2.3:2005 VKmT for the Canadian Lower Fraser Valley by M6.2CCategories . C-20Table C.1.2.4:Litres of Fuel Sold within the Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Region . C-21Table C.1.2.5:Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Forecast Assumptions . C-21Table C.1.2.6:Growth Surrogates for Vehicle Populations in the CanadianLower Fraser Valley. C-22Table C.1.2.7:Expected Emission Reductions (in percentage) from Biodiesel Blends . C-24Table C.1.2.8:Emission Reductions Assumed Achievable by AirCare On-Road (ACOR)Program in Forecast Years. C-25Table C.1.2.9:Emission Reductions for Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicle Fleet in ForecastYears Resulting from Retrofit Regulation . C-26Table C.1.2.10:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Spatial Distribution of Light DutyVehicle Emissions . C-26Table C.1.3.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley On-Road Motor Vehicle FleetEmissions (metric tonnes) . C-28Table C.1.3.2:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Light Duty Vehicle Emissions by Municipality(metric tonnes). C-28Table C.1.3.3:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions by Municipality(metric tonnes). C-29Table C.2.1.1:2005 Aircraft Base Quantities (LTO) . C-32viii
2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air EmissionsInventory & Forecast and BackcastJanuary 2010Table C.2.1.2:Engine-Specific Emission Factors for Vancouver International Airport. C-33Table C.2.1.3:Generic Aircraft Emission Factors. C-34Table C.2.3.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Aircraft Emission Inventory by Municipality(metric tonnes). C-36Table C.2.4.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Aircraft Emission Inventoryby Airport . C-37Table C.2.4.2:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Aircraft Emission Inventoryby Aircraft Type . C-37Table C.3.1.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Rail Fuel Consumption byRail Company . C-38Table C.3.1.2:Emission Factors for Railways by Activity . C-39Table C.3.1.3:Fugitive Dust Emission Factors for Rail Transport of Coal . C-39Table C.3.3.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Railway Emission Inventoryby Municipality . C-41Table C.3.4.1:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Railway Emissions by Activity. C-42Table C.3.4.2:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Emissions by Railway Companies. C-42Table C.4.1.1:IMO Post-1999 NOx Curve Adjustment Factors (Environment Canada). C-45Table C.4.1.2:PM Adjustment Factors (Environment Canada). C-46Table C.4.1.3:OGV Backcast Factors . C-47Table C.4.1.4:Moderate Case OGV Growth Rates. C-49Table C.4.1.5:Low & High Case OGV Growth Rates. C-50Table C.4.1.6:2005 Canadian Lower Fraser Valley Ocean-Going Vessel Emissionsof Criteria Air Contaminants (metric tonnes) .
Emission backcasting involves revisiting previous emission inventories and updating them for consistency with the current year inventory in terms of methodology and study area. This allows for an equitable analysis of emission trends. Emission forecasting is the process of estimating future emissions by projecting changes in activity
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H2SSIM Results Basin Emissions Units Total Emissions (H2S) 0.071 gms/s kgen 0.25 Total Emissions (H2S) 4922.0 lbs/yr ThetaGen 1.06 Total Emissions (H2S) 2.5 tons/yr KDO 0.05 Total Emissions (H2S) 2.2 tonnes/yr KSO4 10 Emission Flux (H2S) 11.9 gms/m 2 yr kanox 0.006 ThetaOx 1.05 Zone Emissions Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Units m1 Zone Emissions (H2S) 0.02 0.03 0.02 gms/s n 0.2
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