EmPOWER Planning For 2020 - Maryland
EmPOWER Planning for 2020June 29, 2012
AgendaIntroduction Malcolm Woolf, MEANatural Gas Potential Study Dick Spellman, GDS Associates, Inc.Combined Heat and Power and End-Use Fuel Switching Kevin Lucas, MEA / Dick SpellmanEmPOWER Results to Date and Business as UsualForecast Kevin LucasNext Steps 2Kevin LucasEmPOWER Planning for 2020
IntroductionWelcome!MEA has a responsibility to Report to Legislature on: Progress to dateWhether to extend EmPOWER electric beyond 2015Whether to set targets for natural gas in 2015 and 2020Work in consultation with PSC and other stakeholdersFirst step in collaborative stakeholder process 3Utilities, Suppliers, Environmental Groups, State AgenciesEmPOWER Planning for 2020
IntroductionGoals of this meeting Robust discussion amongst stakeholdersEducation on difference between and interaction of electricefficiency programs and natural gas efficiency programsPlanting seeds of thought on whether to extend EmPOWER,and if so, how best to structure future programsWe are not here today to Decide whether or not to extend EmPOWERDetermine exact programs and/or structure for extendingbeyond 2015This is the start of a process, not the final step!4EmPOWER Planning for 2020
IntroductionTentative Schedule Stakeholder Meeting – Late JuneDraft EmPOWER 2020 Report – Late August Feedback from Stakeholders – Early September Formal comments on Draft Plan requestedFinal EmPOWER 2020 Report – December 5Incorporates formal and informal feedback from stakeholdersIncludes options on whether and how to extend EmPOWERprograms for electricity and natural gasIncorporates feedback from stakeholders on Draft Report optionsIncludes recommendations on how to proceedEmPOWER Planning for 2020
AgendaIntroductionNatural Gas Potential Study Dick Spellman, GDS Associates, Inc.Combined Heat and Power and End-Use Fuel SwitchingEmPOWER Results to Date and Business as UsualForecastNext Steps 6EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Presented by Dick Spellman, GDS AssociatesJune 29, 20127
“A potential study is a quantitative analysis ofthe amount of energy savings that eitherexists, is cost-effective, or could be realizedthrough the implementation of energyefficiency programs and policies.”Source: National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, Guide for ConductingEnergy Efficiency Potential Studies, November 2007Prepared by GDS Associates8
Quantifying the energy efficiency resource forsystem planningDetermining “cost effective” potentialSetting attainable energy savings targetsDetermining a funding level for deliveringenergy efficiency programsDesigning programs to achieve the long-termpotentialReassessing energy efficiency opportunities asconditions changePrepared by GDS Associates9
Costs, savings, and useful lives of natural gasenergy efficiency measuresCurrent saturation of natural gas equipment(space heating, water heating, cooking, etc.)Forecast of natural gas avoided costsProjections of future market penetration ofnatural gas energy efficiency measuresPrepared by GDS Associates10
Analysis of savings from fuel switchingAnalysis of natural gas and electricity savingsfrom combined heat and power projects(CHP)Work is underway to determine potentialsavings from CHP and fuel switchingPrepared by GDS Associates11
Technical potential is the theoreticalmaximum amount of energy use that couldbe displaced by efficiency Disregards cost-effectiveness testing Does not examine willingness of end-users to adoptthe efficiency measures It is a “snapshot” in time assuming immediateimplementationPrepared by GDS Associates12
Economic potential refers to the subset of thetechnical potential that is economically costeffective as compared to conventionalsupply-side energy resourcesPrepared by GDS Associates13
Amount of energy efficiency that canrealistically be expected to occur withaggressive programs Takes into account real-world barriers to convincingend-users to adopt efficiency measures Reflects non-measure costs of delivering programs(for administration, marketing, tracking systems,monitoring and evaluation, etc.) Reflects that it takes time to ramp up programactivity over timePrepared by GDS Associates14
Program potential refers to the efficiencypotential possible given specific programfunding levels and designsProvides estimate of the achievable potentialfrom a given set of programs and fundingPrepared by GDS Associates15
ffectivePotentialPrepared by GDS Associates16
Define objectives and the audienceDetermine if an advisory group is neededReview existing potential studiesDevelop scope of work, budget, project scheduleand deliverablesSelect potential types to analyzeDetermine appropriate level of detailSelect and define the methodologyCollect data on measure costs, savings, usefullives, current saturation, etc.Calculate estimates of potentialPresent the resultsPrepared by GDS Associates17
Need to establish priorities for programfundingUse potential study results to identify measuresthat are the most cost effective and have themost savingsDevelop program portfolio using: results of the potential study input from interested stakeholders guidance from any applicable governmental lawsand regulationsPrepared by GDS Associates18
2015 PotentialsTable 1-1: Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential - State of Maryland (MMBtu)Summary of Maryland Natural Gas Efficiency Potential2015ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTotal MMBTU Savings% of 2015 Forecasted Annual SalesTechnicalEconomicAchievable60% d by GDS Associates19
2020 PotentialsTable 1-1: Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential - State of Maryland (MMBtu)Summary of Maryland Natural Gas Efficiency Potential2020ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTotal MMBTU Savings% of 2020 Forecasted Annual SalesTechnicalEconomicAchievable60% epared by GDS Associates20
Agenda IntroductionNatural Gas Potential StudyCombined Heat and Power and End-Use Fuel Switching Kevin Lucas, MEA / Dick SpellmanEmPOWER Results to Date and Business as UsualForecastNext Steps21EmPOWER Planning for 2020
CHP and End-Use Fuel Switching End use applications, not power plant applications This is not re-firing coal plants with natural gasTechnical/economic potential being researched by GDS Fuel Switching focus on residential and commercial sectors Space Heating / Water Heating / Clothes DryersCHP focus on commercial, industrial, and institutional sectorsReport in late AugustSome CHP has been already been approved as part ofEmPOWER 22Roughly 20m to develop 40 MW and 146,000 MWh ofsavings by the end of 2014EmPOWER Planning for 2020
CHP and End-Use Fuel Switching Differing infrastructure challenges Mains to neighborhood but not streetsLines to street but not housesConnection to houses but no internal gas pipingPrograms will impact usage and demand for both naturalgas and electricity 23All else equal, programs will increase natural gas use andreduce electricity useAre electricity demand and energy displaced at the same rates?How would this impact firm vs. interruptible service?How would this impact natural gas targets (if set)?EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Agenda IntroductionNatural Gas Potential StudyCombined Heat and Power and End-Use Fuel SwitchingEmPOWER Results to Date and Business as UsualForecast Kevin LucasNext Steps24EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Top-Down Results Actual results from 2007-2011Projected results from 2012-2015 based on proposedprogramsExternal factors (economy, weather) can heavily influenceresults 25Peak Demand is weather normalized, but Energy Usage is notEmPOWER Planning for 2020
Top-Down ResultsEconomic downturn and weather helped meet 2007-2011 energy usagetargets, but currently proposed programs cannot keep pace.26EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Bottom-Up Results and Forecast Results Starts with BAU forecast and subtracts verified savings from2007-2011 and projected savings from 2012-2015Isolates actual program performance from exogenousinfluencesDoes not include CSP programs with C&I sectorsForecast Extended to 2020 based on 2015 program performance andparticipation levels 27Saturation in certain programs (i.e. residential AC switches)New programs needed to continue progress (i.e. dynamic pricing)EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Bottom-Up Results: Demand Response28EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Bottom-Up Results: Energy Usage29EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Annual Reductions Starting from 2011 results, what annual reductions areneeded to hit certain targets?Given certain annual reductions, where are we in 2015? In2020?30EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Annual Reduction Results31EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Agenda IntroductionNatural Gas Potential StudyCombined Heat and Power and End-Use Fuel SwitchingEmPOWER Results to Date and Business as UsualForecastNext Steps 32Kevin LucasEmPOWER Planning for 2020
Things to Think About What has been working well with EmPOWER? What hasnot?Should EmPOWER be extended beyond 2015? Shouldnatural gas targets be set? If not, why not?If so, how should the targets be set? Per capita reduction?% of sales?All cost effective programs?What is the interplay between natural gas programs andelectricity programs?33EmPOWER Planning for 2020
Next Steps Feedback Requested Your feedback is needed to help shape the Draft ReportComments can be formal or informal, but should beconstructive and informative Requested by July 31, 2012 34If you have concerns, also think about potential solutionsConsider how to apply lessons from current programs to future onesPlease email to MEA in PDF formatMEA will post all documentation and replies on our websiteEmPOWER Planning for 2020
Thank You!Questions?Kevin Lucasklucas@energy.state.md.us35EmPOWER Planning for 2020
4 EmPOWER Planning for 2020 Introduction Goals of this meeting Robust discussion amongst stakeholders Education on difference between and interaction of electric efficiency programs and natural gas efficiency programs Planting seeds of thought on whether to extend EmPOWER, and if so, how best to structure future programs
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