Oregon Renewable Energy Siting Assessment (ORESA)
Oregon RenewableEnergy SitingAssessment (ORESA)Over viewOctober 20201
ORESA ProjectThe ORESA project is funded through a 1.1 million U.S.Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment (DODOEA) grant awarded to the Oregon Department of Energy,working with the Department of Land Conservation &Development and Oregon State University's Institute forNatural Resources.2
ORESA Project Goals and ObjectivesDOD-OEA’s overarching goal is to support military compatibilitythrough coordination with local, regional, and state agencies and raiseawareness about the military through the ORESA project.Key project goals are to create relevant educational tools forstakeholders, agencies, local governments, and policy makers aboutrenewable energy development, military training and operationalareas, economic/community benefits, land use considerations,natural, cultural, and environmental resources, and other regulatoryrequirements.Key project objectives are baselining data, information, andperspectives to create a transparent, consistent collection of trusted,accurate information in Oregon, without recommendations orendorsements, and noting where information may be imprecise oruncertain.3
ORESA Project: 5 Components- - - PHASE 1 - - -1. Renewable Energy Market & Industry Assessment (Led by ODOE andsupported by Consulting Firm – E3: Energy and Environmental Economics) –Collect data and model the future opportunity for development of renewableenergy generation and transmission infrastructure in Oregon. Develop costoptimized, renewable energy build-out scenarios for Oregon over the next 15years. Build an understanding of the challenges and opportunities that exist inthe renewable development community in Oregon and identify gaps thatcould be addressed for Oregon to meet its long-term energy goals.4
ORESA Project: 5 Components- - - PHASE 1 - - -2. Military Needs & Interests Assessment (Co-led by ODOE and DLCD andsupported by Consulting Firm – Epsilon System Services) – Collect data andinformation about current and future military assets, uses, needs, and casestudies. Analyze data, protocols, and policies regarding military training andoperating areas, including current and anticipated future uses. Note anyconstraints and opportunities between renewable energy development andmilitary uses.5
ORESA Project: 5 Components- - - PHASE 2 - - -3. Natural Resources, Environment, and Development: Opportunities &Constraints Assessment (Led by DLCD and supported by Consulting Firm – CBI:Conservation Biology Institute) – Collect data and information regarding thepresence of natural, cultural, and environmental resources, as well as,jurisdictional protections, development constraints, and commercial interests.Collect data and information regarding community and economicopportunities with renewable energy development. Build an understanding ofrenewable energy opportunities and constraints, including regulatorystructures and protections vested with Tribal governments and local, state,and federal agencies.6
ORESA Project: 5 Components- - - PHASE 2 - - -4. Siting Procedures Review (co-led by ODOE and DLCD) – Review and analysisof siting regulations, permitting, and project review processes as they relateto notification, identification, and evaluation of potential impacts. Developsummary of siting regulations and process review with feedback fromstakeholders. Identify best practices in tools and strategies for engagementand improved coordination.7
ORESA Project: 5 Components- - - PHASE 2 - - -5. Mapping and Reporting Tool (led by INR) - Develop a mapping and reportingtool, housed on Oregon Explorer, with data and information about renewableenergy; military training and operational areas; economic developmentopportunities; land use considerations; natural, cultural, and environmentalresources; and other regulatory requirements. The tool should build a morecomprehensive understanding of renewable energy and transmissiondevelopment and support proactive coordination with stakeholders, agencies,local governments, and policymakers in the state. Development of the toolwill involve stakeholders to help define use cases and reporting functionality.8
Natural Resources, Environment,& Development: Opportunities& Constraints Assessment(DLCD / CBI)Renewable Energy Market& Industry Assessment(ODOE / E3)Renewable Energy TechnicalAdvisory CommitteeRenewable EnergyStakeholder Group12Military Needs &Interests Assessment(ODOE / DLCD / ESS)Outreach and inputfrom DoDMapping & ReportingTool(INR)Stakeholder groups toinform functionalityand beta-test draft toolStakeholder Focus Groupsbased on themes and/orgeographic regionsProjectDeliverablesWe arehere 3 4 5Siting Procedures ReviewPhase 1ORESA Report&ORESAMapping &Reporting Tool(ODOE / DLCD)Stakeholder input &feedback on draftsummaries ofproceduresPhase 29
Stay in touch!Learn more about the ORESA n/Pages/ORESA.aspxSign up for email updates on the ORESA cribe10
Renewable Energy MarketAssessment Project UpdateStakeholder MeetingWednesday October 14th, 2020Nick Schlag, DirectorFemi Sawyerr, ConsultantCharles Gulian, ConsultantEmily Leslie (Energy Reflections)
Agenda Introduction and background Assessments key elements Status updates Scenario design Framework for scenario analysis Proposed scenarios Methods & assumptions Modeling overview Demand for renewable energy Renewable resource potential & cost Transmission considerations Analysis outputs overview Wrap up & next steps12
Meeting protocol Participants are encouraged to ask clarifying questions during thepresentation We'll keep an active eye on the "Chat" window, so feel free to drop questions there We'll reserve open discussion for specific points in the presentationbetween sections The webinar is being recorded so attendees are encouraged to statetheir name and organization when asking questions Attendees are encouraged to mute their devices when not askingquestions13
Introduction and Background
Renewable Energy Assessment keyelements ODOE has engaged E3 to conduct renewable energy assessments to achievethree objectives:1.Quantify the future opportunity for development of renewable energy generation andtransmission infrastructure in Oregon2.Develop cost-optimized, renewable energy build-out scenarios for Oregon over the next 15years, and3.Develop an understanding of the constraints and opportunities that exist in the renewableenergy development industryRenewable Energy MarketAssessment Characterize renewable resourcedevelopment potential in Oregon Create a range of plausiblescenarios for renewable buildoutwithin the state of Oregon over thenext fifteen yearsRenewable EnergyIndustry Assessment Collaborate with industrystakeholders and representativesto identify and characterize barriersand opportunities for renewabledevelopment within the state15
REMA highlights The primary purpose of the REMA is to provide plausible projections ofhow much renewable energy and infrastructure might be built in Oregonover the next 15 years To achieve this purpose E3 is conducting an analysis using a customspreadsheet model that will utilize a scenario analysis approach toproject multiple futures of renewable energy development Will consider several variables including resource economics, energy policy,commercial interest, and land use impacts There are three main goals of this assessment Identify the type, quantity, and quality of resources available for Oregon to meet itslong-term clean energy goals Understand the existing and future transmission needs for development of theseresources Understand the tradeoffs that exist with different geographic resource constraints This presentation presents the proposed scenarios and will highlightsome key inputs and assumptions for the modeling16
Status update Renewable Energy Industry Assessment Industry survey soliciting input on development landscape sent to about 23organizations Once all surveys are collected and reviewed, we’ll reach out on an individual basisfor follow up Renewable Energy Market Assessment Draft renewable supply curve is mostly completed– Will incorporate input from other ORESA partners to finalize inputs Data gathering for additional inputs and assumptions is mostly completed– Will incorporate feedback from stakeholders to finalize inputs Development of scenario analysis tool in progress - finalizing initial version– Will incorporate input and assumptions feedback from TAC and other stakeholders17
Scenario Design
Scenario analysis framework This study uses scenarioanalysis to identify andanalyze plausibleoutcomes for renewabledevelopment within thestate of Oregon over thenext fifteen years Goal of scenario analysisis not to predict anoutcome—but to highlightkey drivers of anddifferences betweenscenarios to inform futuredecision PredictionsFacts19
Issues & questions to consider in choosingscenarios REMA will use scenario analysis to identify multiple plausible portfoliosthat capture plausible outcomes for renewable development in Oregon inthe next 15 years Many factors could affect development patterns in the state: Commercial viability & scalability of technology options Limitations of existing transmission system and challenges of building new Future load growth, including efficiency and electrification Competing land uses Voluntary commitments for additional procurement Increased deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) Increased/accelerated state policy targets Focus on in-state vs. out-of-state procurement to meet Oregon’s needs Procurement of resources in Oregon to meet needs of other states20
Scenario analysis approach will provide arange of portfolios List of planned scenarios chosen to examine a range of potentialoutcomes that highlight key challenges and implications of achievingdevelopment at scale within the state Key themes chosen in scenario design are geography, technology, andtransmissionScenarios Identified for AnalysisColumbia GorgeFocus1Emphasis on continueddevelopment of renewableswithin the Columbia RiverGorgeLow renewable demand (1a)andHigh renewable demand (1b)Central/EasternOregon Focus2DistributedResource Focus3Offshore WindFocus4Emphasis on developmentof remote resources insoutheast OregonEmphasis on developmentof distributed resourcesnear loads that limit needfor new transmissionEmphasis of developmentof offshore wind resourcesto meet Oregon’s needsHigh renewable demandHigh renewable demandHigh renewable demandEach scenario’s focus indicates the primary – but not the only – source for new renewables in that scenario (i.e. eachscenario will include some geographic and technological diversity)21
Modeling Assumptions & Methodology
Overview of data collection and modeling REMA effort will focus ondeveloping plausible portfoliosof resources informed bydetailed technical assessment ofresource options to meet futurestate goals and other drivers ofrenewable development Three phases of analysis willprovide a continuous opportunityto narrow and refine focus onpotential resources Inputs & assumptions presentedtoday are draft and subject tofurther review and revisionDeveloping Renewable Portfolios1Technical Potential2Viable Potential(screening for land use)3PortfolioSelection Final results will illustrate arange of potential outcomes,incorporating multiple scenarios23
Overview of portfolio developmentINPUTSMODEL LOGICOUTPUTSDemand ForecastRenewable DemandPolicy GoalsCalculate demand forrenewables to meet scenariodefined goalRE ProcurementResource Potential(including land use data)Resource CostTransmission ImpactEnergy ValueCapacity ValueRenewable SupplyCurveRenewableResourceSelectionSelect resources to fillrenewable net shortaccording to thedefinitions of the specifiedscenarioRenewablePortfoliosReport out specific resourcesin each portfolio and provideassociated GIS dataIdentify and rank resources tomeet future policy needsbased on:(1) resource economics,(2) commercial interest,(3) land use implicationsCommercial Interest24
Overview of portfolio developmentINPUTSDemand ForecastPolicy GoalsRE ProcurementResource Potential(including land use data)Resource CostTransmission ImpactEnergy ValueCapacity ValueMODEL LOGICOUTPUTSNWPCCEighthPower Plan (draft)RenewableDemandCalculate demand forrenewables to meet scenariodefined goalRenewableResourceSelectionGIS analysis incorporating datafromNREL,Selectresourcesto fill staterenewablenet shortagencies, and other ORESA studycontributorsaccording to thedefinitions of the specifiedscenarioRenewablePortfoliosReport out specific resourcesin each portfolio and provideEighthassociated GIS dataNREL2020 AnnualTechnologies Baseline, NWPCCRenewableSupplyPower Plan(draft), NREL 2019 Offshore Wind StudyCurveIdentify and rank resources tomeet future policy needsDiscussionswith BPAbased on:(1) resource economics,(2) commercial interest,(3) land use implicationsand NorthernGridNWPCC Resource Adequacy AnalysisCommercial Interest25
Multiple factors will affect demand forrenewable development in Oregon Oregon’s RPS policy will require utilities to procure significant amountsof new renewable resources 50% by 2040 for large IOUs 25% by 2025 and thereafter for large COUs ( 3% of retail sales) 10% by 2025 and thereafter for small COUs (1.5% - 3% of retail sales) 5% by 2025 and thereafter for smallest COUs ( 1.5% of retail sales)To meet 2035 RPS goals under current policy, OR utilities will have toprocure a total of 12 TWh of new generation (based on NWPCCSeventh Power Plan draft demand forecast)The amount of new generation built in the state of Oregon over thisperiod could be substantially lower due to procurement of resourcesoutside Oregon to meet Oregon’s RPS goalsPost-2020 ORrenewable net short2020 OR renewabledemandOther factors could cause this “net short” to increase and could leadto more development within Oregon: Voluntary commitments by utilities and corporate entities Increased policy goals Higher load growth due to electrification26
Multiple factors will affect demand forrenewable development in Oregon Recognizing the uncertainties that will affect the amount of development in thestate, our analysis considers two levels of “demand” for renewable developmentwithin the state of Oregon:1.“Low Renewable Demand” based on current RPS targets and utility plans as filed in IRPs2.“High Renewable Demand” that could reflect any combination of:– Increased reliance on Oregon resources to meet current policy goals;– Future increases in Oregon’s clean energy policies; or– Increased demand due to higher loads driven by electrificationBHigh Renewable Demand ScenarioALow Renewable Demand Scenario Calculated as all utilities meeting current policy needs with instate resources but could also reflect increased demand from“Low Demand” scenario due to increase in policies or loads Not intended to be predictive but to test impacts of higher levelsof in-state development Modeled in Scenarios 1-4 COUs meet renewable needs with in-state resources Pacificorp & PGE procure resources within OR consistent withmost recent IRPs (and rely heavily on out-of-state resources) Modeled only in Scenario 127
Renewable supply curve development To develop a “supply curve” for renewable resources in Oregon, weevaluate the potential, performance, and cost for new renewables in thestate Technical potential and performance for renewable development inOregon evaluated through detailed geospatial analysis Data sources include NREL, RETI, EPRI, Geothermex Geographic screening data was used to refine the technical potential data Cost projections for renewable development developed from publiclyavailable data and studies: 2020 NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2019 NREL study of Oregon offshore wind resources The result of these efforts is a data library of renewable resources inOregon that are available for development28
Details of geospatial resource analysis For onshore resources, a 20-mile area was identified in proximity to transmissionlines with ratings of 115 kV and above Raw resource potential was obtained from NREL and RETI (NSRDB2 SAM, Wind Toolkit 2020,Geothermex "Potential Geothermal Resource Areas of Oregon") For offshore wind: Raw resource potential was obtained from NREL (Wind toolkit metadata, 50 TB dataset released 2020) For wave energy Raw resource potential was obtained from EPRI (Mapping and Assessment of the United States OceanWave Energy Resource and from NREL Marine and Hydrokinetic Atlas)) Three geographic screens have been developed to explore a range of differentland-use constraints upon renewable energy potential in Oregon Siting Level 1: Legally protected areas Siting Level 2: Administratively protected areas Siting Level 3: High conservation value areas The geographic screen analysis is not intended to predetermine site suitability forrenewable development, but does help illustrate tradeoffs among competing priorities29
Geographic screen definitionsSiting Level 1:Siting Level 2:Siting Level 3:Legally Protected AreasAdministratively Protected AreasHigh Conservation Value Areas Areas where existinglegal restrictions prohibitingenergy development Examples: Military areas, NationalWildlife Refuge, National Parks Areas where the siting ofenergy requires consultation ortriggers a review process to protectecological or cultural values ornatural characteristics Examples: Critical Habitat forThreatened or Endangered Species,wetlands Areas with high conservationvalue Despite their conservationvalue, these lands typically do nothave formal conservationprotections Examples: Important Bird Areas,big game priority habitat, TheNature Conservancy EcologicallyCore Areas)Goal of exploring multiple geographic screens is to illustrate tradeoffs between competing prioritiesbut is not intended to predetermine site-specific suitability for renewable development30
Legally protected geographic screenallows vast amounts of RE potentialResourceCap. Factor (%) rgyResource Potential, Siting Level 1SL 1 Potential 5%-50%13.250%-55%22.080%0.425%-45%9.0Pending31
Administratively protected geographic screen allowssignificant amounts of RE veBioenergyCap. Factor (%)Resource Potential, Siting Level 2SL 2 Potential (GW) 0%11.450%-55%20.880%0.425%-45%9.0Pending32
High conservation value geographicscreen greatly reduces the RE veBioenergyCap. Factor (%)Resource Potential, Siting Level 3SL 3 Potential (GW) %11.450%-55%20.880%0.425%-45%9.0Pending33
Resource costs based on public datasources Capital costs, and O&M costsare analyzed using a proformamodel developed by E3 toobtain levelized cost of energy(LCOE) values for eachtechnologyLCOE Trajectory for RE Resource (2019 /MWh) Geothermal, solar, andonshore wind resource costsare based on the 2020 NRELAnnual Technology Baseline(ATB) Offshore wind resource costsare based on the 2019 NRELOregon studyAverage LCOE estimates for Biomass and Wave Energy are 127/MWh and 113/MWh respectivelyLCOE values exclude cost of bulk transmission systemupgrades Wave/Tidal energy costs arebased on the 2015 OceanEnergy Systems study34
Approach to considering transmission Joint planning of transmission and generation is complicated! To understand implications of renewable
Oct 14, 2020 · Renewable Energy Assessment key elements ODOE has engaged E3 to conduct renewable energy assessments to achieve three objectives: 1. Quantify the future opportunity for development of renewable energy generation and transmission infrastructure in Oregon 2. Develop cost-optimized, renewable energy build-out scena
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renewable resources (renewable energy) and sets the FiT rate. The DLs will pay for renewable energy supplied to the electricity grid for a specific duration. By guaranteeing access to the grid and setting a favourable price per unit of renewable energy, the FiT mechanism would ensure that renewable energy becomes a viable and sound long-term
4.0 Renewable Energy Market 4.1 Policy Framework for renewable energy 4.1.1 Policies and Strategies for Renewable Energy Promotion 4.1.2 Main actors 4.1.3 Regulatory Framework 4.1.4 Licensing Procedures for Renewable Energy 4.1.5 Feed-in-Tariff 4.2 Business Opportunities and Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources 4.2.1 Bioenergy 4.2.2 Solar energy
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The EU's renewable energy policy framework 5 - 9 Renewable energy support schemes 10 - 12 Renewable energy within the EU's rural development policy framework 13 - 17 Audit scope and approach 18 - 22 Observations 23 - 82 The EU's renewable energy policy framework could better exploit the opportunities of renewable energy deployment in .
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