The South African Insurance Gap (2019) - ASISA

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The South Africaninsurance gap (2019)Quantifying the insurance gap by considering thefinancial impact on South African households of thedeath or disability of an earner in the householdFinal Report11 October 2019A study by True South Actuaries & Consultants

TABLE OF CONTENTS12345INTRODUCTION .71.1DEFINITIONS . 71.2BACKGROUND AND BRIEF. 71.3ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . 71.4WHAT IS INCLUDED AND WHAT IS EXCLUDED . 7EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .92.1NUMBER OF DEATH EVENTS / DISABILITY EVENTS EXPECTED . 92.2THE INSURANCE GAP . 92.3RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 102.4THE INSURANCE GAP BROKEN DOWN INTO SEGMENTS . 10INCREASE IN THE INSURANCE GAP SINCE THE PREVIOUS STUDY . 113.1THE INSURANCE NEED GREW BY 6.9% PA . 113.2ACTUAL COVER GREW BY 7.7% PA . 123.3THE TOTAL INSURANCE GAP INCREASED BY 6.4% PA. 13PERSONALISING THE INSURANCE GAP . 144.1THE INSURANCE GAP PER EARNER . 144.2RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 154.3FURTHER PERSONALISING THE INSURANCE GAP . 15THE INSURANCE GAP PER EARNINGS GROUP . 165.1SEGMENTS. 165.2FINDINGS. 16www.asisa.org.zaPage 2 of 43

67895.3THE SIZE OF THE INSURANCE GAP PER SEGMENT . 175.4RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 18THE INSURANCE GAP PER EDUCATION LEVEL . 196.1SEGMENTS. 196.2FINDINGS. 196.3THE SIZE OF THE INSURANCE GAP PER SEGMENT . 206.4RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 21THE INSURANCE GAP PER AGE GROUP . 227.1SEGMENTS. 227.2FINDINGS. 227.3THE SIZE OF THE INSURANCE GAP PER SEGMENT . 237.4RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 24THE INSURANCE GAP PER PROVINCE . 258.1SEGMENTS. 258.2FINDINGS. 258.3THE SIZE OF THE INSURANCE GAP PER SEGMENT . 268.4RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 28THE INSURANCE GAP PER GENDER . 309.1SEGMENTS. 309.2FINDINGS. 309.3THE SIZE OF THE INSURANCE GAP PER SEGMENT . 309.4RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP . 31APPENDIX A: DEFINITIONS . 33“ACTUAL COVER” . 33www.asisa.org.zaPage 3 of 43

“COVER ADEQUACY” . 33“DEATH EVENT” . 33“DISABILITY EVENT” . 34“EARNER” . 34“EARNINGS” . 34“INSURANCE GAP” . 34“INSURANCE NEED” . 34“RETIREMENT AGE” . 35APPENDIX B: MODELLING NOTES - EARNER POPULATION . 36APPENDIX C: MODELLING NOTES - INSURANCE NEED . 37APPENDIX C1: TOTAL INCOME AT RISK. 37APPENDIX C2: REPLACEMENT RATIO. 38APPENDIX C3: CAPITALISATION MULTIPLE . 39APPENDIX D: MODELLING NOTES - ACTUAL COVER . 40APPENDIX D1: ASISA QUESTIONNAIRES . 40APPENDIX D2: OTHER DATA SOURCES . 41APPENDIX D3: ALLOCATION OF ACTUAL COVER TO EACH MODELLED EARNER - TRUE SOUTH MODELS . 41www.asisa.org.zaPage 4 of 43

LIST OF TABLESTABLE 1 - NUMBER OF EARNERS SUFFERING A DEATH AND/OR DISABILITY EVENT IN 2019. 9TABLE 2 - POSSIBLE RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP. 10TABLE 3 – THREE COMPONENTS COMBINE TO DEFINE THE INSURANCE NEED . 11TABLE 4 - TOTAL ACTUAL COVER HELD RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS STUDY . 12TABLE 5 - GROWTH IN LIFE COVER, SPLIT BETWEEN RETAIL AND GROUP INSURANCE . 12TABLE 6 - GROWTH IN DISABILITY COVER, SPLIT BETWEEN RETAIL AND GROUP INSURANCE. 12TABLE 7 - INSURANCE GAP: COMPARISON AGAINST PREVIOUS STUDY . 13TABLE 8 - INSURANCE GAP IN TOTAL FOR ALL EARNERS AND PER-EARNER . 14TABLE 9 - POSSIBLE RESPONSES TO THE INSURANCE GAP. 15TABLE 10 – DEMOGRAPHICS OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE EARNING SEGMENTS . 16TABLE 11 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY EARNINGS . 17TABLE 12 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY EARNINGS . 17TABLE 13 - RESPONSES TO THE DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY EARNINGS. 18TABLE 14 - RESPONSES TO THE DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY EARNINGS . 18TABLE 15 - DEMOGRAPHICS OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE EDUCATION SEGMENTS . 19TABLE 16 - DERIVATION OF THE PER EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY EDUCATION . 20TABLE 17 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY EDUCATION 20TABLE 18 - RESPONSES TO THE PER-EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY EDUCATION . 21TABLE 19 - RESPONSES TO THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY EDUCATION . 21TABLE 20 – DEMOGRAPHICS OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE CONSIDERED AGE SEGMENTS. 22TABLE 21 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY AGE . 23www.asisa.org.zaPage 5 of 43

TABLE 22 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY AGE . 23TABLE 23 - RESPONSES TO THE DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY AGE SEGMENTS . 24TABLE 24 - RESPONSES TO THE DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY AGE . 24TABLE 25 - DEMOGRAPHICS OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE PROVINCES . 25TABLE 26 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY PROVINCE . 26TABLE 27 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY PROVINCE . 27TABLE 28 - RESPONSES TO THE DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY PROVINCE . 28TABLE 29 - RESPONSES TO THE DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY PROVINCE . 29TABLE 30 - DEMOGRAPHICS OF EARNERS SEPARATELY FOR MALES AND FEMALES. 30TABLE 31 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY GENDER . 30TABLE 32 - DERIVATION OF THE PER-EARNER DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY GENDER . 31TABLE 33 - RESPONSES TO THE DEATH INSURANCE GAP BY GENDER . 31TABLE 34 - RESPONSES TO THE DISABILITY INSURANCE GAP BY GENDER . 32TABLE 35 - INSURANCE NEED REPRESENTED AS PRODUCT OF THREE NUMBERS. 37TABLE 36 - TOTAL EARNINGS BY EARNERS INCREASED BY 11.2% PA . 37TABLE 37 - RETAIL POLICY OWNERSHIP OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE EDUCATIONSEGMENTS . 42TABLE 38 - RETAIL POLICY OWNERSHIP OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE AGE SEGMENTS . 43TABLE 39 - RETAIL POLICY OWNERSHIP OF EARNERS IN EACH OF THE INCOME SEGMENTS 43www.asisa.org.zaPage 6 of 43

1 INTRODUCTION1.1DefinitionsTerms for which a definition is supplied in Appendix A, are denoted in italics.1.2Background and briefASISA retained True South Actuaries and Consultants to update previous studies conducted todetermine the extent of under-insurance in South Africa. This study is referred to as the “2019Insurance Gap Study” and reflects the situation as at the end of 2018. Previous studies wereconducted in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016 and reflected the extent of under-insurance in SouthAfrica as at the end of 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015 respectively.1.3AcknowledgementsWe express our thanks to the life insurers who participated in the study through the provisionof data on fairly tight timelines. We experienced much improvement in both the quality andquantity of data compared to the previous studies. We are also particularly grateful for themany instances where senior officials in the respective organizations got personally involved toassist us in securing the necessary data.1.4What is included and what is excludedIn Appendix A (defining terms that are denoted in italics throughout this document), theinsurance gap (see modelling notes in Appendix B) is defined as the difference between theinsurance need and actual cover: The insurance need is defined as the amount of cover required to meet the need that iscreated by the death event and/or the disability event (see modelling notes in Appendix C):oIt assumes the household would want to maintain the pre-event standard of living.oIt further assumes that the need extends to the deceased / disabled householdmember’s retirement age only as this study doesn’t express any view on postretirement provision adequacy.oIt excludes any additional short-term expenses related to the risk event, such asfuneral costs, medical costs and/or cost of structural changes to one’s home in thecase of a disability event.www.asisa.org.zaPage 7 of 43

Actual cover considers benefits received post-event from insurers (retail and group-typecover), self-insurance pension schemes (like the GEPF) and government disability grants.(See modelling notes in Appendix D.)oIt excludes funeral cover (as it is pragmatically assumed that the objective of suchcover does not include income replacement).oIt excludes cover that provides for certain selected situations only, such as accidentonly cover and cover from the Road Accident Fund, the Compensation Fund andshort-term insurance.oIt ignores any shortfall that may result due to any waiting periods that may beenforced by the disability cover product design.www.asisa.org.zaPage 8 of 43

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2.1Number of death events / disability events expectedThe table below shows the number of earners expected to suffer a death event1 and / or adisability event2 during 2019:Table 1 - Number of earners suffering a death and/or disability event in 2019Death eventNumber of earnersDisability event15.6m15.6mNumber of events expected per year155 95051 642Number of events expected per day4271412.2The insurance gapAt a macro levelThe insurance gap was determined using the same principles as used for previous studies. (Seeappendices B, C and D.) The insurance gap as at the end of 2018 was calculated to be 34.7trillion (1 trillion 1 000 billion 1 000 000 million 1012 ): If South African households wanted to maintain their standards of living after a death event,the insurance need for all earners combined is in the region of R24.5 trillion (see section3.1).The extent of actual cover in force in the economy only amounts to R9.0 trillion (Thisleaves a death insurance gap of around R15.4 trillion (see section 3.3). If South African households wanted to maintain their standards of living after a disabilityevent, the insurance need for all earners combined is in the region of R35.6 trillion (seesection 3.1). The extent of actual cover in force in the economy only amounts to R16.4trillion (see section 3.2). This leaves a disability insurance gap of around R19.3 trillion (seesection 3.3).(Numbers are rounded.)By reference to the demographics of the earners in each segment and application of the AIDS model of the ActuarialSociety of South Africa.1By reference to a disability investigation of the Actuarial Society of South Africa calibrated so that ratio of disabilitiesto deaths is consistent with group premium rates obtained.2www.asisa.org.zaPage 9 of 43

At a micro levelThe insurance gap as at the end of 2018 was calculated to be R2.2m for the average SouthAfrican earner:If the average South African earner wanted to ensure that her/his family can maintain their standard of living in the event of her/his death, provision would need to be made for R1.6mof cover. However, the average South African earner has life cover of just less than R0.6m.This leaves an average death insurance gap of about R1.0m.If the average South African earner wanted to ensure that her/his family can maintain their standard of living in the event of her/his being subject to a disability event, provision wouldneed to be made for R2.3m of cover. As the average South African earner has disabilitycover of just less than R1.1m, this leaves an average disability insurance gap of about R1.2m.2.3Responses to the insurance gapA response to the insurance gap, could be to pro-actively purchase additional death anddisability cover.Reactive responses (post the death event / disability event) include [1] curtailing householdexpenditure and [2] shifting the burden of under-insurance to the remaining householdmembers of working-age by requiring increased contributions from them to total householdincome. The extent required by each of the responses is summarised in the table below:Table 2 - Possible responses to the insurance gapPro-activeReactive post death event / disability eventCost to close gap (%of earnings)% reduction inhouseholdexpenditureGenerating additionalincome per monthDeath event4.6%32%35 362Disability event2.6%24%6 475Total7.2%2.4The insurance gap broken down into segmentsIn the main body of this document, the insurance gap is reported for different segments of thepopulation in terms of income, education, age, province and gender.3Expressed as a percentage of post event household expenditure (i.e. reduced due to smaller family size).www.asisa.org.zaPage 10 of 43

3 INCREASE IN THE INSURANCE GAP SINCE THE PREVIOUS STUDY3.1The insurance need grew by 6.9% paIn the table below, the insurance need is expressed as the product of three numbers:Table 3 – Three components combine to define the insurance needNoteTotal insurance need (in R’bn)2016 studyTotal insurance need (in R’bn)2019 studyDeathDisabilityDeathDisabilityTotal income at risk12 0792 0792 8632 863* Replacement ratio264%87%57%78%* Capitalisation factor315.21615.115.91*2*320 24928 93624 48835 654Insurance needNote 1 - Income at risk: This includes all income as per the definition (Appendix A) of earnings.(For more information, see Appendix C1.)Note 2 - Replacement ratio: This represents the proportion of household members’ personalincome that “will be missed” after the death event or the disability event. The replacement ratiois lower for the death event reflecting the fact that the deceased earner’s portion of expenseswill no longer be part of the household budget. The replacement ratios are lower compared tothe previous study. This is mostly related to higher tax as percentage of pre-tax income due to[1] increase in collections by SARS (exceeding 10% per annum), [2] fiscal creep, [3] higher taxrates and [4] the introduction of the 45% tax bracket for earnings above R1.5m pa. (For moreinformation, see Appendix C2.)Note 3 - Capitalisation factor: This factor is related to the number of years that the earner wouldstill have contributed to the household. It reflects the period from current day up to retirementage. (For more information, see Appendix C3.)www.asisa.org.zaPage 11 of 43

3.2Actual cover grew by 7.7% paRecently introduced regulatory returns now form the basis of the actual cover informationrequirement, serving to enhance the credibility of results in at least two ways: Higher response rates: As the requested information is more readily available, (the bulkhad already been provided to the regulator), more insurers respond to the informationrequest resulting in a lesser need to ratio data to account for non-respondents. Quality and comparability of information: Returns are audited and the specification forwhat is required is uniform for all insurers alike. There is therefore less possibility forinterpretation / data extraction errors.See Appendix D for more information on the sources used for determining the total level ofactual cover in the market and allocating this to different segments of the earner population.Table 4 - Total actual cover held relative to previous studyActual cover in R’bnNote2016 studyLife cover1Disability insurance cover2Disability grants3Total2019 studyIncrease pa7 3929 0426.9%9 93212 5008.0%3 0413 8958.6%20 36525 4377.7%Note 1: Growth in life cover since previous studyTable 5 - Growth in life cover, split between retail and group insuranceActual life cover in R’bn2016 study2019 studyIncrease paRetail insurance4 3125 6899.7%Group insurance3 0803 3532.9%Total life insurance cover7 3929 0426.9%Note 2: Growth in disability cover since previous studyTable 6 - Growth in disability cover, split between retail and group insuranceActual disability cover in R’bn2016 study2019 studyIncrease pa.Retail insurance3 4874 72210.6%Group insurance6 4457 7796.5%Total disability insurance cover9 93212 5008.0%Note 3: The amount of the maximum social security disability grant increased by about 6% pasince the 2016 study. However, the number of earners also increased and thus the total coveravailable in the scenario where all earners become disabled has increased by more than 6%.www.asisa.org.zaPage 12 of 43

3.3The total insurance gap increased by 6.4% paTable 7 - Insurance gap: Comparison against previous studyR’billion2016 studyDeathDisabilityInsurance need20 249Actual cover from insurance-7 392Disability grant coverInsurance gapCover adequacy2019 studyTotalDeathDisabilityTotal28 93649 18524 48835 65460 142-9 932-17 324-9 042-12 500-21 542--3 041-3 041--3 895-3 89512 85715 96328 82015 44619 25934 70537%45%41%37%46%42%Since the previous study in 2016, the insurance gap increased by 6.4% pa. The actual cover aspercentage of the insurance need (referred to as cover adequacy) indicates that only 42% of theinsurance need is currently met by actual cover. This percentage remained fairly flat since theprevious studies due to both the insurance need and actual cover growing at similar rates overthese periods.The death insurance gap grew at a marginally slower rate (6.3% pa) than the disability insurancegap (6.5% pa).www.asisa.org.zaPage 13 of 43

4 PERSONALISING THE INSURANCE GAP4.1The insurance gap per earnerThe table below shows how the insurance gap of R34.7 trillion can be expressed as an averagegap of R2.2m per South African earner (R1.0m for death events and R1.2m for disability events):Table 8 - Insurance gap in total for all earners and per-earnerTotal insurance gap (in R’bn)Insurance gap per earner – (in Rand)DeathDisabilityDeathDisability24 48835 6541 570 8432 287 134Total income at risk2 8632 863183 649183 649* Replacement ratio57%78%57%78%Insurance need* Capitalisation factor15.115.915.115.9-9 042-16 395-580 012-1 051 689Retail insurance-5 689-4 722-364 917-302 877Group insurance-3 353-7 779-215 094-498 9820-3 895--249 83015 44619 259990 8311 235 445Actual coverGovernment grantsInsurance gapIn the case of a death eventIf the average South African earner wanted to ensure that her/his family can maintain theirstandard of living in the event of her/his death, provision would need to be made for R1.6m ofcover. However, the average South African earner has life cover of just less than R0.6m. Thisleaves an average death insurance gap of about R1.0m.In the case of a disability eventIf the average South African earner wanted to ensure that her/his family can maintain theirstandard of living in the event of her/his being subject to a disability event, provision wouldneed to be made for R2.3m of cover. However, the average South African earner has disabilitycover of just less than R1.1m. This leaves an average disability insurance gap of about R1.2m.www.asisa.org.zaPage 14 of 43

4.2Responses to the insurance gapA response to the insurance gap, could be to pro-actively purchase additional death anddisability cover.Reactive responses (post the death event / disability event) include [1] curtailing householdexpenditure and [2] shifting the burden of under-insurance to the remaining householdmembers of working-age by requiring increased contributions from them to total householdincome.The table below indicates the extent required by each of these responses:Table 9 - Possible responses to the insurance gapPro-activePersonal monthlyincome (net of tax)Reactive post death event / disability eventCost to close gap (%of earnings)% reduction inhouseholdexpenditureGenerating additionalincome per monthDeath event4.6%32%5 362Disability event2.6%24%6 475Total7.2%4.3Further personalising the insurance gapDue to the diversity of the South African socio-economic landscape, the concept of the “averageSouth African earner” is less clear than (say) the “average Australian earner”. For this reason, itmakes sense to consider the insurance gap for different segments of the South African earnerpopulation.In the sections below we show the insurance gap and possible responses to it for the followingsegments of the South African earner population: Section 5: Earnings groups Section 6: Level of education Section 7: Age groups Section 8: Province Section 9: Genderwww.asisa.org.zaPage 15 of 43

5 THE INSURANCE GAP PER EARNINGS GROUP5.1SegmentsThe 15.6 million earners were divided into 5 groups with equal representation by number. Thefirst group represented the 20% poorest individuals within the universe of earners. The nextgroup represented the next 20% poorest individuals, etc.:Table 10 – Demographics of earners in each of the earning segmentsNumber ofearners (million)Average annualnet earnings(Rand)Average Ageup to R28 056 p.a.3.114 416362 QuantileR28 057 to R55 983 p.a.3.142 249363rd QuantileR55 984 to R102 507 p.a.3.176 225374 QuantileR102 508 to R213 086 p.a.3.1165 28938Richest 20%more than R213 087 p.a.3.1619 8594215.6183 64938SegmentSegment bounds (net earnings)Poorest 20%ndthAll5.2FindingsThe numbers in the remainder of this section reveal that: For a death event, the cover adequacy shows a strong positive correlation with personalincome - i.e. the higher the income, the bigger proportion of the insurance need is met byactual cover. This would have been the case for the disability event as well had it not been for governmentdisability grants. The level of the grant is such that it covers the full disability insuranceneed of the poorest 20% earners. Most earners within this (poorest 20%) group wouldtherefore not have any need for additional (or any for that matter) disability insurance cover.www.asisa.org.zaPage 16 of 43

5.3The size of the insurance gap per segmentDeath insurance gap per earnerTable 11 - Derivation of the per-earner death insurance gap by earningsPoorest 20%2nd Quantile3rd Quantile4th QuantileRichest 20%114 277477 814899 0251 725 5554 636 170Total income at risk14 41642 24976 225165 289619 859* Replacement ratio43%61%66%61%54%* Capitalisation factor18.618.518.017.013.8Insurance needActual cover-3 363-29 767-131 022-409 203-2 325 853Retail insurance-792-8 078-48 853-217 775-1 548 502Group insurance-2 572-21 689-82 169-191 428-777 35100000Government grantsInsurance gap110 913448 046768 0041 316 3522 310 318Cover adequacy (Cover/Need)3%6%15%24%50%Number of earners (millions)3.13.13.13.13.1Total insurance gap (R’bn)3461 3972 3954 1027 206For example, an earner that finds her/himself in the top 20% of South African earners, wouldtypically need life cover of almost R4.6m. Typically such an earner would only have life cover ofR2.3m, leaving an average insurance gap of around R2.3m.Disability insurance gap per earnerTable 12 - Derivation of the per-earner disability insurance gap by earningsPoorest 20%2nd Quantile3rd Quantile4th QuantileRichest 20%275 820803 7391 399 3752 618 1606 336 803Total income at risk14 41642 24976 225165 289619 859* Replacement ratio100%100%99%90%71%* Capitalisation factor19.119.018.617.714.4-456 790-452 035-542 118-809 761-2 996 782-361-4 220-34 304-170 181-1 304 819Insurance needActual coverRetail insuranceGroup insurance-7 898-65 935-240 775-531 933-1 647 858-448 531-381 880-2

The insurance gap was determined using the same principles as used for previous studies. (See appendices B, C and D.) The insurance gap as at the end of 2018 was calculated to be 34.7 trillion (1 trillion 1 000 billion 1 000 000 million 1012): If South African households wanted to maintain their standards of living after a death event,

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