The Challenge Of Climate Change - Cgspace.cgiar

Message from Ian Johnson, CGIAR Chairmanfeel very privilegedto serve as the eighthChairman of theCGIAR. Since myappointment in July 2000,I have used every opportunity to get to know theCGIAR better, visiting theCenters, consulting withthe Cosponsors and Members, talking to farmers inthe field, and seeingCGIAR scientists in action.This CGIAR Annual Report2000 reflects the high quality of science practiced throughout the CGIAR System over the past year.The CGIAR started as a unique effort to mobilize agricultural research on the frontlines of the battles against hunger,poverty, and environmental degradation. Today, new challenges are being added to the development agenda—threatsto the global environment, particularly climate change; themanagement of natural resources, such as land and water;and public health and nutritional concerns, to name a few. Inthis past year, we have seen growing evidence of the potentialimpact of these threats on agriculture, and, by definition, onthe CGIAR’s research agenda.Major transformations will occur as we seek to fulfill ourvision of a world in which the CGIAR ensures that international agricultural research contributes, to the fullest possible extent, to poverty reduction and sustainable development.In this year of change the CGIAR will be forward-lookingand more innovative, mobilizing a critical mass of scientificexpertise, and using cutting-edge science in efforts to resolve“big picture” issues that confront the development community. We will expand alliances and reinforce partnerships toenhance the overall impact.A strong sentiment for change emerged at last year’s International Centers Week (ICW2000), when it was generallyagreed that internal changes would be needed if the CGIARwere to be appropriately structured and adequately equippedto grapple with the problems of today and tomorrow.There was broad agreement that the CGIAR must berelaunched, that it must be clearly seen to be changing inboth form and function, with the existing strengths and experience of the System serving as the foundation on which arestyled CGIAR could be built. A Change Design and Management Team (CDMT), reporting to a Steering Group of rep-I4resentative CGIAR stakeholders, was created to maintain themomentum of change. The CDMT’s proposals can provide abasis for CGIAR transformation.FORMIDABLECHALLENGESAs a scientific enterprise, the CGIAR has embraced changebefore. New research avenues have been explored, new Centers added, new Members welcomed—especially from thedeveloping countries. It is a truism that a vibrant scientificeffort thrives on change. The ongoing revolution in the biological sciences, computing technology, and near instantaneous global communications offers tremendous opportunities for new partnerships to help the poor. The CGIAR mustseize these opportunities to advance its mandate. The year2000 was one of review and preparation. In 2001, it is timeto act.Thirty years ago, international interest in harnessing agricultural science and technology to combat famine and promote agricultural development was at an unprecedentedhigh. The effectiveness of this strategy is widely acknowledged, as these examples show: More than 300 CGIAR-developed varieties of wheat andrice, and more than 200 varieties of maize, are beinggrown by farmers in developing countries. CGIAR holds in public trust, under oversight of the Foodand Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),the world’s largest collection of plant genetic resources(comprising over 600,000 accessions of more than 3,000crop, forage, and pasture species). CGIAR works with developing countries in strengtheningnational agricultural research capacities. More than75,000 scientists and technical personnel have alreadyreceived training at the Centers.Despite the progress made, however, new challenges remain.One-fifth of the world’s population lives in absolutepoverty, on less than US 1 a day, and almost half the world’spopulation lives on less than US 2 a day. Some 826 millionpeople do not have enough to eat. In addition, numerousother challenges lie heavily on the development agenda.They include the “hidden hunger” of malnutrition, waterscarcity, land degradation, loss of biodiversity, humanimmunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), and other pressures. These challengeswill grow more complex as the world’s population increasesCONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

by an estimated 2 billion people—most of them in developing countries—over the next 25 years.The challenge to agriculture inherent in these developments is formidable. Agriculture alone cannot solve all development problems, but agriculture and its sustaining force,agricultural research, are essential elements of any realisticeffort to resolve the major development issues that lie at theheart of sustainable development—including food security,nutritional deficiency, climate change, and water and landmanagement.Fourth, stable long-term finance: To be effective, theCGIAR needs a strategy—based on effectiveness, accountability, and output—for stable and replenishable financing.One implication of the challenge-based research agenda isthat, over time, funding for the CGIAR would be more programmatic than institutional. This could stabilize fundingthrough multiyear arrangements. The possibility of attractingsupport from nontraditional donors, including donors fromthe private sector, is also being explored.THETHEMESFORCHANGESeveral themes are expected to underpin change in theCGIAR.First, challenge-oriented research: The impact of CGIARresearch could be substantially elevated if the currentresearch agenda were augmented by a strategic approach inwhich the Centers and their partners collaborate to achieveverifiable, targeted outputs in clearly defined strategicresearch areas. Such a strategic research agenda, defined inconsultation with other stakeholders, could mobilize agricultural science to respond to major challenges that are at theheart of global development concerns. Each program wouldconsist of building blocks of projects that together respond toa major development challenge—for instance, the loomingwater crisis and its impact on smallholder agriculture.Second, operational strength: The Centers will be strengthened by expanding present strategic alliances, both amongthemselves and with non-CGIAR institutions. National agricultural research systems (NARS) must continue to be thecornerstone of any framework of partnerships and alliances.Civil society institutions, the private sector, and universityresearch institutes will also be more widely engaged. Thecommon needs of the Centers are currently met through adhoc arrangements, or not met at all. A common services unitcould increase cohesion and improve efficiency.Third, nimble decisionmaking and governance: TheCGIAR embodies elements of a new age of internationalinstitutions. Critical elements of such institutions are streamlined decisionmaking; deliberations in a “virtual” modewherever possible; minimum use of large meetings, committees, and so on; and the ability to mobilize, disseminate, anduse knowledge to shape policy, technical, and scientific agendas. Knowledge-based institutions are going to be the winners in the new age, and the CGIAR, a knowledge-basedinstitution, must exploit its inherent and potential SEARCHAGENDAThe theme of this annual report, The Challenge of ClimateChange: Poor Farmers at Risk, is fundamental to the CGIAR’sgoal of addressing the needs of small farmers in developingcountries through agricultural research. Mobilizing science,developing adaptation and mitigation strategies, and targeting the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variability willremain the primary objectives of CGIAR efforts, both nowand in the future.The most recent assessment of climate change by theworld’s leading scientists (assembled in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations) concludes that the earth’s average surface temperature couldincrease by as much as 5.8 degrees Celsius (10.4 degreesFahrenheit) by the end of the current century. This is significantly higher than earlier estimates.How should we respond? The CGIAR is concerned withthe reality that agriculture accounts for a significant portionof the total emissions of greenhouse gases. We need to conduct research to develop technologies that not only help toreduce poverty and promote the sustainable use of naturalresources, but that also mitigate the impact of agriculture onclimate. This is a particular challenge to developing countries as they confront climate change and may not have thescientific and institutional capacities to undertake therequired research.So what does all this mean to the small farmer, the primary client of the CGIAR? A warming world will surelyimpact yields of staple crops, increase the incidence of pestattacks, and exacerbate drought, all with profound effectson the well-being of small farmers in developing countries.The CGIAR and its partners remain committed to addressing these issues by mobilizing the best of science for poorfarmers at risk.ANNUAL REPORT 2000 THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: POOR FARMERS AT RISK5

Overview from Francisco J. B. Reifschneider, CGIAR Directort the dawn of thenew millennium,agriculturaldevelopmentholds the key to some of themost pressing challengesfacing the human family.The CGIAR has a long trackrecord of success in providing research outputs thatfulfill the criteria for globalpublic goods. At a timewhen one of the greatestchallenges is the speed of scientific change itself, the CGIARmust remain true to its mission of generating knowledge andtechnologies that directly benefit poor farmers in developingcountries.For the CGIAR, the year 2000 will be remembered as atime when the contributions of CGIAR science to international development goals, including poverty reduction andimproved health and nutrition, were widely recognized.ALet me highlight just three examples: A higher-yielding, protein-rich “miracle corn” to help prevent malnutrition in millions of people earned Dr. Evangelina Villegas and Dr. Surinder K. Vasal of the Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maïz y Trigo (InternationalMaize and Wheat Improvement Center—CIMMYT) the Millennium World Food Prize. Dr. Villegas—the first womanever to receive the Food Prize—and Dr. Vasal join six otherCGIAR scientists who are World Food Prize Laureates. Scientists at the International Rice Research Institute(IRRI) were enlisted to aid international efforts to investigate the safety and utility of “Golden Rice” in combatingVitamin A deficiency, which is responsible for 500,000cases of irreversible blindness and 1 to 2 million deathsworldwide each year. This work is a good example ofCGIAR strengths in mobilizing high science for the causeof the poor. Scientists at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and The Institute for Genomic Research6(TIGR) began using advanced sequencing techniquesfrom the Human Genomic Project to pry open the molecular secrets of Theileria parva, the tiny parasite that causesEast Coast Fever, a debilitating livestock disease that killstwo cows every minute in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theirresearch may also lead to a breakthrough in finding curesfor persistent human diseases such as malaria and cancer.The year 2000 will also be remembered for the changes thatoccurred across the CGIAR System. World Bank Vice President Ian Johnson became the CGIAR Chairman in July, succeeding Ismail Serageldin, who had served in that leadershipposition since 1994. Alexander von der Osten, CGIAR Executive Secretary since 1989, also retired at the end of the year2000.Since becoming CGIAR Director in January 2001, I havehad the pleasure of working with the whole CGIAR family. Itis my privilege to participate in shaping the new, revitalizedCGIAR.Scientific enterprise works best as a collaboration, especially when new challenges confront us and test the relevance of our work. In order for the CGIAR to be on the cutting edge, it must renew and transform itself continuously.Members of the CGIAR family are in broad agreement thatsuch renewal is necessary: together, they supported formationof a Change Design and Management Team to examineoptions, suggest alternatives, and propose specific changes,all the while ensuring that the target of our efforts remains thesmall farmer who ekes out a precarious existence in the marginal ecosystems of the developing world.This annual report itself reflects change. It highlights amajor environmental issue, the potential impact of climatechange on agriculture, especially in developing countries.International agricultural research will play an important rolein helping poor farmers adapt to the consequences of climatechange and mitigate its deleterious effects. Although climatechange is global in scope, a group of the world’s leading scientists has warned that climate change is potentially mostdevastating to the world’s poorest people. The CGIAR’sresearch agenda cannot remain unaffected by that finding.It is a reality that we are in the midst of change that affectsevery aspect of our work. For a scientific enterprise such as theCGIAR, the prospect of change cannot deter us from pursuingour mission of promoting poverty reduction and sustainableCONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

agriculture. Indeed, this is an opportunity for the scientifictemperament to take charge of change and direct it to thenoble cause of helping the world’s poor farmers.At this time of change, the raison d’être for the CGIARremains unchanged. Our strategy builds on past achievements, and recognizes that the problems of today and tomorrow need a different kind of security, one that includes food,natural resources, and social components. In pursuit of itspro-farmer mission, the “new” CGIAR must strengthen itstrue and creative partnerships—based on mutual respect andinterests—with national agricultural research systems, civilsociety institutions, and the private sector, among others.ANNUAL REPORT 2000 THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: POOR FARMERS AT RISKScientificenterpriseworks best asa collaboration,especially whennew challengesconfront us.7

Perspectives on Agriculture and Climate Changehe last two decades have been the warmest in thepast 100 years. Sea levels are rising, rainfall patterns are changing, Arctic ice is thinning, and thefrequency and intensity of El Niño events appearto be increasing. In many parts of the world, major heatwaves, floods, droughts, and extreme weather patterns haveled to significant loss of life. Associated economic lossestotaled US 40 billion in 1999; one-fourth of the lossesoccurred in developing countries. The question is no longerwhether the earth’s climate will change, but rather how muchit will change, how fast, and where.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)has warned that the latest scientific evidence points stronglytoward a steadily warming world in the twenty-first century.An overwhelming majority of scientific experts around theworld, while recognizing that some scientific uncertaintiesexist, nonetheless believe that climate change caused byhuman activities (primarily burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural practices) is already occurring, andthat further climate change is inevitable.For developing countries in particular the incrementalcosts of adapting to a continuously changing climate wouldbe a major burden, even assuming that they possess the institutional and technical capability to adapt. The good news isthat significant reductions in net emissions of man-madegreenhouse gases are technically feasible. When they arereleased into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, andnitrous oxide are the primary contributors to the greenhouseeffect. The bulk of their emissions, particularly that of carbondioxide, is related to energy processes. Historically, industrialized nations are responsible for almost three-fourths of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.The IPCC was established by the United Nations in 1988to provide governments with a scientific consensus on climate change and its consequences; recently the IPCC completed the most comprehensive review and update of thestate of climate change since its Second Assessment Report,Climate Change 1995. According to the panel’s new assessment report, the earth’s average surface temperature couldrise by as much as 5.8 degrees Celsius (10.4 degreesFahrenheit) over the next 100 years. This warming, the mostrapid climate change in 10,000 years, would be more than60 percent higher than that predicted by scientists just fiveyears ago.T8BY ROBERT T. WATSON, CHAIRMANINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANELON CLIMATE CHANGEThe panel concluded that “there is stronger evidence” ofhumanity’s influence on climate and that man-made greenhouse gases have probably already “contributed most of theobserved warming over the last 50 years.” Unless concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilized, the probable rise intheir concentrations in the atmosphere could mean: Severe water stress in the arid and semiarid land areas insouthern Africa, the Middle East, and southern Europe Decreased agricultural production in many tropical and subtropical countries, especially countries in Africa and LatinAmerica, as a result of almost any increases in temperature Higher worldwide food prices as supplies fail to keep upwith the demand of an increasing population Increased vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, in tropical countries Major changes in the productivity and composition of critical ecological systems, particularly coral reefs andforests Tens of millions of people at risk from flooding and landslides, driven by projected increases in rainfall intensityand, in coastal areas, rising sea levels.The magnitude of the climate change phenomenon must beunderstood in the context of global environmental degradation and threats to sustainable development. World leaderstoday face enormous challenges to: Reduce poverty for the 1.3 billion people who live on lessthan US 1 per day and the 3 billion who live on less thanUS 2 per dayCONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

Provide adequate food, especially for the nearly 800 million people who are malnourished today, by doubling foodproduction in the next 35 years Provide clean water for the 1.3 billion people who do nothave clean drinking water, and provide sanitation for the 2billion people who lack access to sanitation Provide electrification for the 2 billion people who lackelectricity Provide a healthy environment for the more than 1 billionpeople who are exposed to dangerous levels of indoor andoutdoor air pollution.Predictions that climate change will mean severe flooding ofcoastal areas, an increase in storms and heavy rains in someregions, and more rapid desertification in others have enormous implications for agricultural productivity, waterresources, and natural ecosystems.

some of the larger global challenges, such as climate change. Advocating science-based approaches to solving some of the world's most pressing developmental problems is at the heart of the CGIAR's mission. The CGIAR supports interna-tional development goals, including those laid out in the Convention to Combat Desertification, the Convention on