A PESTLE Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Industry: AnInvestment PerspectiveShaoxia Li5717192025SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT IN THE REQUIREMENT FORTHE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATIONINTERNATIONAL PROGRAMSIAM UNIVESITY2018
AcknowledgementFirst of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. JomphongMongkolvanich for his advisory and approval of this paper.I would also like to thank my friends for giving me the ideas to write this paper, and tohelp me push it through the difficult times.I would like to thank my family for the understanding and continuous support toaccomplish this degree while working fulltime.Lastly, I would like to thank Siam University for providing the opportunity to grow myprofessional knowledge and to learn in an international atmosphere, and my fellowstudents for the friendship and team works, without that, all these wouldn’t have beenpossible.iii
ContentsAbstract . iAcknowledgement . iiiContents . ivChapter one: Introduction . 11.1 Statement of problem . 31.2 Conceptual Framework 31.3 Objectives . 41.4 Scope of the study 41.5 Importance of the study . 41.6 Research Methods 41.7 Limitation 51.8 Research Questions . 51.9 Definition terms . 6Chapter two: Literature Review . 72.1 What is cryptocurrency? . 72.2 PESTLE Analysis 112.2.1 Political .112.2.2 Economy .152.2.3 Social-Culture . 192.2.4 Technology . 222.2.5 Legal . 262.2.6 Environment . 27Chapter three: Investment on Cryptocurrency . 293.1 Major events that impact crypto prices 313.2 Future and challenges . 35Chapter four: Research Result 38Chapter five: Conclusion and Recommendations 415.1 Conclusion . 415.2 Recommendations . 42References: .44iv
Chapter one: IntroductionIn 2008, the idea for an open, distributed ledger called ‘blockchain’ emerged, it alsoenabled the digital currency that came with it, Bitcoin, the first decentralizedcryptocurrency, it eliminates the third party and preserves the anonymity of userexchanges, without requiring one’s identity be directly tied to the exchange of Bitcoins(Wikipedia). 10 years later, the cryptocurrency market has evolved erratically and atunprecedented speed, more than 1,500 cryptocurrencies have emerged by April 2018,according to coinmarketcap.com. Cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin are often referredto as Altcoin, or alternative coins, they exist either to fix Bitcoin’s perceived flaws withbetter features and technology, or to pursue different goals and properties, such asEthereum, Ripple, Litecoin, EOS, and etc (Farell, 2015). As of April 29, 2018, the totalcryptocurrency market capital is worth US 433Billion in total, with Bitcoin boasts 37%market share at the price 9,419 a coin after falling as low as 5921 in early February2018, followed by Ethereum with 16% market share and price at 689 a coin, accordingto coinmarketcap.com.Bitcoin, the world’s most heavily traded cryptocurrency, has ignited presence in mediaand intense discussions in late 2017. While it has made strides as a payment method butstill not an option yet in most businesses due to its instability in value and complexity inuse, it is rather perceived as a commodity asset like gold and silver, that one trades, inhopes that its value will rise and yield a trading profit (Dorfman, 2017). A research byBaur, Hong & Lee (2017) also shows that Bitcoins are mainly used as a speculativeinvestment and not as an alternative currency and medium of exchange. Hugh numbersof investors have been pouring their money into the market more than ever in history,these retail investors have emerged as a major force in bitcoin’s spectacular rally (Sano,2017). Bitcoin price skyrocketed from 786 a coin in early January 2017, to a new highof nearly 20,000 a coin in December 2017, and then falling briefly below 10,000 onJanuary 17, 2018. The digital currency has suffered from dramatic wild swings the pastyear. Is Bitcoin a good investment with such high price volatility? What shouldinvestors consider when deciding on the investment of cryptocurrency? What hascontributed the price hike and drop? This paper is going to address on these problemsby analyzing the different aspects of the cryptocurrency market.1
Cryptocurrencies continue to experience massive growth in price, market capitalization,and mainstream adoption, they are providing features and functions that are changingthe way we do things (FundYourselfNow, 2018). The increase online transaction, lesstransaction fees, easy and faster transaction, changing consumer and business landscapehave lead the demand for the market growth (WiseGuyReports, 2018).More and moreentrepreneurs and investors are turning their interests into cryptocurrencies, whether it’sfor investing in cryptocurrencies and ICOs for personal wealth gain, or even just tocatch up with the latest market trend, a thorough understanding and evaluation of thecryptocurrency industry is necessary. This paper provides a concise yet comprehensiveanalysis of the cryptocurrency industry using the PESTLE model, by looking at itsPolitical, Economy, Social-cultural, Technology, Legal, and Environment impacts, witha particular focus on Bitcoin and its investment, readers will have a better understandingof cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, this research seeks to answer the questions on howwill regulation impact the cryptocurrency industry? How cryptocurrencies may changethe global economy, and what challenges it faces?Chart 1.1.Bitcoin 1-year price chart from Apr 29, 2017 to Apr 29, 2018Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/2
1.1 Statement of problemThe term Cryptocurrency has become widely spread among the investment news due toits increasingly fast growth in value, it is mostly related to the case of Bitcoin, whichhas been alleged that the value of Bitcoin had seen a 1,300% gain within the year of2017, Despite receiving extensive public attention, it’s is still new to the market, to a lotof people, theoretical understanding is still limited regarding how it works, yet so manypeople are interested in investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Strong growthof cryptocurrency is still expected in the current market, Is cryptocurrency an attractiveinvestment? How will blockchain technology revolutionize the entire market? Thispaper will help interested individuals answer these questions.1.2 Conceptual ulturalTechnologyAdvancementAttractiveness ofInvestment onCryptocurrencyLegal IssuesEnvironmentImpact3
1.3 Objectives-To understand the cryptocurrency market and how it influences the economy.-To understand blockchain technology and its potential to revolutionize the waybusiness operates especially the financial market.-Understand the risk on cryptocurrency investment and help investors in theirinvestment decisions-To determine the major challenges it faces.1.4 Scope of the studyThis paper examines the cryptocurrency industry by looking into its impact on political,economy, social cultural, technology, legal and environment, with particular focus onBitcoin. Furthermore, this research seeks to answer the questions on howcryptocurrencies may change the global economy, what future holds for blockchaintechnology, and finally it provides an analysis on the investment outlook ofcryptocurrencies.1.5 Importance of the studyDue to its infancy to the market and the increasing interest consumers have placed oncryptocurrencies and its investment, whether it’s for starting a new business in the fastchanging world or invest in ICOs in the hope to gain wealth, or even just to catch upwith the latest market trend, a thorough understanding of the cryptocurrency industry isnecessary. This paper provides a concise yet comprehensive analysis of thecryptocurrency industry using the PESTLE model with a focus on Bitcoin and itsinvestment.1.6 Research MethodsThis paper is based on a descriptive study focuses on secondary data, the majority ofinformation comes from journal articles, news, opinions from cryptocurrencyenthusiasts, face to face interviews in crypto meetups and cryptocurrency seminars.Sample size in quantitative method in cryptocurrency would be low due to its infancystage and little is known about the subject. Method was chosen since it helps tounderstand many aspects of the cryptocurrency market using words rather thannumbers. For these reasons, the researcher chose qualitative research method.4
1.7 LimitationDue to regulations on the cryptocurrency is still on its evaluation and evolving stage,factors that impact it are changing on a daily basis, and the limited knowledge by thegeneral public. Therefore it is challenging to gather data for the research ofcryptocurrency, the availability of information obtained at the time of this paper is basedon secondary sources and is limited subject to the current market condition, and shouldbe left for the discretion of reader. This research is limited to explaining technicaldetails, and more focused on exploring theoretical use case. It is not a financial advice,but rather provides a comprehensive understanding of the cryptocurrency market, inorder to help investors on their investment decisions.1.8 Research QuestionsWhat is cryptocurrency?How will regulation impact the cryptocurrency industry?What is the impact of cryptocurrency on the global financial market?How blockchain technology may revolutionize the way we conduct business?Can cryptocurrency improve the way of our life?What the legal issue with cryptocurrency?What’s the impact of coin mining have on the environment?What determines the price volatility of Bitcoin?What does the future hold and its challenges?What should investors take into account when investing in cryptocurrencies?5
1.9 Definition termsCryptocurrency: a digital currency designed to work as a medium of exchange that usescryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and toverify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a third party. (Wikipedia)Blockchain technology: a distributed ledger technology underlying cryptocurrency, it isa digitized, decentralized, distributed public ledger of all cryptocurrency transaction.Constantly growing a “completed” blocks are recorded and added to it in chronologicalorder, it allows market participants to keep track of digital currency transaction withoutcentralrecordkeeping.(Investopedia)Initial Coin Offering (ICO): a means of crowdfunding centered around cryptocurrency,which can be a source of capital for startup companies. In an ICO, a quantity of thecrowdfunded cryptocurrency is sold to investors in the form of “token”, in exchange forlegal tender or other cryptocurrencies. These tokens supposedly become functional unitsof currency if or when the ICO’s funding goal is met and the project launches.(Wikipedia)Cryptocurrency mining: the process by which transactions are verified and added to thepublic ledger, and also the means through which new coins are released. Users whowish to mine for Bitcoin must solve puzzles, which are part of a network of pendingBitcoin transactions, once puzzles are solved, miners are awarded new Bitcoins that aregenerated. Anyone with access to the internet and suitable hardware can participate inmining.(Investopedia)Bitcoin: the first decentralized digital currency, the system works without a central bankor single administrator. The network is peer-to-peer and transactions take place betweenusers directly, without an intermediary. Bitcoin was invented by an unknown person orgroup of people under the name Satoshi Nakamoto and released as open-sourcesoftware in 2009. Bitcoin is one of the most volatile, discussed and popular instrumentsamongallcryptocurrencies.(Wikipedia)6
Chapter two: Literature Review2.1 What is cryptocurrency?A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security(Investopedia). Cryptocurrency is anonymous, no need for ‘trust’, it can be used topurchase goods and/or services, that allows people to carry out digital transactionwithout the need for a middle man such as a bank, underlying the use of blockchaintechnology. It is typically shared over a peer-to-peer system, which means the exchangeof digital currency occurs between individuals, rather than an individual to a bankinginstitution. Cryptography is used to secure the creation of new coins.Blockchain is a digital-ledger technology underlying cryptocurrency, it is a digitized,decentralized, distributed public ledger of all cryptocurrency transaction. Constantlygrowing a “completed” blocks are recorded and added to it in chronological order, itallows market participants to keep track of digital currency transaction without centralrecordkeeping. Blockchain creates transparency and trust due to its open source anddecentralized network.Decentralized Blockchain allows transactions to be completed on a peer-to-peer basisbetween two parties without the use of a middleman. Blocks are accessible by all partiesinvolved in a transaction, therefore eliminates the need for analyzing andcommunication with a third party, such as banks to authenticate the transaction, resultsin simplified process and makes transactions nearly instant.Distributed Blockchain allows a wide variety of computers to take part in a network,distributed the computing power. Distributing helps to reduce risk in tampering, fraudand cybercrime.Open sourced Its publicly accessible open-source code, which is similar to a bankingledge that stores all peer-to-peer bitcoin transactions that allows authorities to trackorganizations or individual in participation.Anonymous Preserving the anonymity of those exchanging bitcoins across the P2Pnetwork reflects the similar anonymity in cash exchanges, individuals can exchange7
currency for a product without having to reveal their identity. Cryptocurrencytransactions are facilitated through public and private keys for security purpose.Individuals are able to search for bitcoin transactions history for a particular recipient byentering the recipient’s public-key. The private key is used to generate a signature foreach blockchain transaction a use sends out.Trustless Blockchain allows digital transaction to happen between parties who do notneed to trust each other. By distributing the ledger to many nodes, and synchronizingthis Ledger via Consensus, blockchain allows parties who don’t trust each other, tobelieve that the transaction is real and not worthless. Over time, trust can be increasedfurther, via shared processes and immutable records of transactions.Limited supplyMost cryptocurrencies limit the supply of the tokens. Allcryptocurrencies control the supply of the token by a schedule written in the code.Bitcoin has a total supply of 21,000,000coins, the supply decreases in time and willreach its final number somewhere in around 2140.The phenomenon began in 2008 with the creation of Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto.Bitcoins are not issued from a centralized banking institution, and are not associatedwith national currencies, the accumulations of Bitcoins on the network is effectivelysecured by the decentralized nature of P2P networking. By 2018, more than 1,600cryptocurrencies have established their presence in the market, such as Ethereum,Ripple and Litecoin, reaching massive market values with thousands of investorspurchasing coins on a daily basis.The primary definition of a currency- “Money”, is that it serves a society as thegenerally accepted, routinely used medium of exchange. Neither Bitcoin nor any othercryptocurrencies does that or is capable of that in that in its current stage ofdevelopment (Hendrickson, 2018). Since the price of cryptocurrencies are based onmany factors, the rate at which a cryptocurrency can be exchange for another currencycan fluctuate widely within a single day. Many detractors have argued that Bitcoin’svolatile prices will mean it can never be a truly viable alternative currency as the valuesfluctuate so much. Adding to that, the service charges for processing small transactioncan nearly double the cost of an item purchased; the time it takes to process a8
transaction varies unpredictably, thereby making transactions cumbersome andinconvenient; and since few vendors use the real-time dollar-Bitcoin exchange ratio, thedollar price of a transaction may be far different from what one things one is paying. Ina statement by ex-Goldman President Gary Cohn, he said “I do think we will have aglobal cryptocurrency at some point where the world understands it and it’s not basedon mining costs or cost of electricity or things like that” (Kim, 2018). For Bitcoin oraltcoins to become a currency, the future lies on whether they can achieve theirwidespread adoption and demand, its access to numerous market, the cost and ease oftransactions across borders (D’Alfonson, Langer & Vandelis, 2016).Due to its limited supply and deflationary nature, many compare bitcoin to gold as astore of value as for hedging again capital market volatility. The similarity of the twoare that both are scarce and can be transferred between people without going throughtraditional financial institution. The difference is that cryptocurrency have no intrinsicvalue, they derive and retain their worth from investor demand alone. Gold has 10,000years of monetary history and is universally accepted, it also benefits from a wide rangeof hedging products, for example options and futures, while Bitcoin is still new andhaving existed for less than a decade (Bovaird, 2018). According to Parker, COO ofIRA Bitcoin LLC, “Cryptocurrency certainly has some of the advantages of preciousmetals, it is a non-correlated asset that should be resistant to market volatility and mayeven benefit from a sentiment-based shift to alternative assets. A severe marketdownturn will put pressure on all highly appreciated assets as investors seek to offsetmarket losses with cryptocurrency gains.” Due to the limited supply of Bitcoin, thismakes the coins scarce and greedy investors want in, the general price of Bitcoin hasbeen on big swing since it came into existence, early investors have made a lot ofmoney. Adding to price manipulation by the market and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty andDoubt) cause by government interventions , because the nature of supply-demand, it ispossible that when more new players come to the market, supply will increase, thusprice may drop, which contribute to the risk of investment.In 2017, Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) have become the leading crowd funding methodfor technology-based startups. Developers and entrepreneurs no longer want to spendtime trying to convince banks, venture capitalists, and angel investors to put up equity instartups, once a tangible idea is conceptualized, they seemingly tokenized it and sell it to9
the public, before the idea is delivered, millions of dollars in investment funding havealready secured. The risk is now resting in the hands of these investors. Early February2018, China’s Internet Financial Awareness body called for greater awareness regardingthe risks of ICOs, according to the article, most ICOs have nothing to do withtechnology development, instead, they were described as “fishing for capital”- a processdraining good investment money into bad hands (Gray, 2018).A research by Baur, Hong & Lee (2017) indicated that Bitcoin is uncorrelated withtraditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds and commodities both in normal timesand periods of financial turmoil. The analysis of transaction data of Bitcoin accountsshows that Bitcoins are mainly used as a speculative investment and not as analternative currency and medium of exchange.10
2.2 PESTLE AnalysisIn this section, the researcher is looking into the different elements that impact thegrowth and adoption of cryptocurrency industry using PESTLE model, namely itsPolitical, Economy, Social-cultural, Technology, Legal, and Environment impacts. Itseeks to answer the following questions: How will regulation impact the cryptocurrencyindustry? What is the impact of cryptocurrency on the global financial market? Howmay blockchain technology revolutionize the way we conduct business? Cancryptocurrency improve the way of our life? What the legal issues with cryptocurrency?and What’s the impact of coin mining have on the environment?2.2.1 PoliticalWith large growth forecasted by analysts worldwide, the use of cryptocurrency is stillnew to the market, it’s facing many challenges especially government regulations.Government support or opposition are extremely influential for the future ofcryptocurrency industry, both in terms of regulation and for public sector adoption ofblockchain technology. The Government can support or oppose the implementation ofcryptocurrency in the market, therefore regulations could have both positive andnegative impact on its development and mass acceptance.Regulators globally have raised the alarm over cryptocurrencies, saying they may aidmoney laundering and terrorist financing, hurt consumers and undermine trust in theglobal financial system. Such concerns over security as well as criminal use ofcryptocurrencies lead to widespread government opposition and regulation. However,due to the decentralized nature and lack of power structures inherent incryptocurrencies, many view regulations could stabilize the market in order to driveadoption and growth and reduce the volatility that has been a hallmark of the industry.Regulations will offer greater legitimacy and give users and institutional clients theconfidence to invest. When Japan started regulating bitcoin, the market droppedinitially, but it roses eventually. Same happened in Australia. On the other hand,government intervention is opposed to the original purpose of cryptocurrency as adecentralized mechanism, and regulations hinder investor profit on tax collections.11
Just like other recognizable assets such as stocks, commodity, or cryptocurrency arebeing affected by mainstream global trade tussles. Major cryptocurrencies went down10% in a week in the early April 2018, due to the news on trade war between China andThe U.S., which stem from the U.S. attempt to increase tariffs on China imports in orderto curve trade deficit and intellectual property rights (Njui, 2018).Governments in many countries are now working on tightening up on potentialregulations in the new future, target from cryptocurrency exchanges to ICOs, incombating the possibility of fraudsters using the currency as a means of exchange andfighting with ICO scams. Due to the lack of global coordination among authorities,there are wide range of opinions on how to best regulate this space, thus the rules varyfrom country to country.The U.S. Jolted by the global investment craze over bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,U.S. lawmakers are considering new rules that could impose stricter federal oversighton the emerging asset class, as to address the risk posed by virtual currencies toinvestors and the financial system, aiming to push for digital assets to be regulated assecurities and subject to SEC’s investor protection rules. In the U.S., Digital assetscurrently fall into a jurisdictional gray area between the Securities and ExchangeCommission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), theTreasury Department, the Federal Reserve and individual states, as they all had differentviews on the matter (Morgan, 2018). While the CFTC defines cryptocurrencies as“commodities”, SEC differs and defines ICOs and cryptocurrencies as “securities”, andtherefore illegal unless registered as a security. Recently, the US state of Wyomingdeclared cryptocurrencies as a type of “asset”.England In a recent speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Caney entitled “ToIsolate, Regulate or Integrate”, although arguing that cryptocurrencies are not a viablealternative to fiat currency in that they are poor stores of value, inefficient media ofexchange, and virtually non-existent as a unit of account (Wilmoth, 2018). However, hepointed to a “better path”, one that is comprised of regulation for components of thecryptocurrency market to fight fraud and support market integrity and security for thefinancial system at large. He also acknowledged that crypto assets have become part of12
the mainstream financial system, and cryptocurrency should be held the same standardas the rest of the financial system” (Terzo, 2018a).China where the majority of Bitcoin mining took place, was once considered to be aglobal hub for cryptocurrency trading. In 2017, the country gradually bannedexchanges, banks, payment providers and online connectivity to foreign tradingplatforms from any crypto-related activities. However, the Chinese acknowledged theblockchain technology, and are rapidly working on implementing and revolutionizingon industries such as logistics. Despite its drastic bans, four out of the five largestbitcoin “mining pool” in the world are Chinese.South Korea which has rumored with a ban of cryptocurrency trade in January 2018,has softened its stance recently. Due to the ban in China, South Korea has emerged tobecome a hub of cryptocurrency. The South Korean finance market is relatively small incomparison to other major countries such as Japan and the US. Given that thecryptocurrency exchange market processes more trades on a daily basis than KOSDAQ,South Korea’s main stock market, a closure of the cryptocurrency market is the samescale as closing down the stock market, which could damage the economy of SouthKorea. On January 30, 2018, South Korea banned the use of anonymous bank accountsfor virtual coin trading as of to stop cryptocurrencies being used in money launderingand other crimes. In February 2018, the government said it hopes to normalize thevirtual coin business in a self-regulatory environment, which signals a positive sign forthe market. The country’s electronics giant Samsung has already started production ofcryptocurrency mining technologies, local media reported in January.Thailand In a news reported by Nikkei Asian Review late March 2018, Thailand hasannounced that all crypto trades will be taxed with a 7 percent added tax (VAT), andreturn taxed with a 15 percent capital gains tax. This would create uncertainty in thecountry, driving prospect Thai startup to move their registration for ICOs fundraising tomore investment-friendly Singapore (Zuckerman, 2018).G20 The issue of crypto security and regulation have been among the main discussionson 2018’s G20 Summit. It has been agreed that the Financial Action Task Force(FATF), which is an intergovernmental organization created to counter money13
laundering and terrorist financing, will apply its standard to cryptocurrency policy(BlockchainDaily, 2018). The meeting has also set a July 2018 deadline for a unilateralapproach to regulation, although still unclear on its direction, a worldwide regulationcould push the cryptocurrency market to be more stable, there provide investors moreconfidence.With a market dominated by retail players, regulation can reduce market manipulationand volatility, and gradually attract more institutional investors such as asset managersand private banks, an increase in the trading volume will, in turn, encourage the growthand adoption of cryptocurrencies. According to an article by Sharma R. (2018) onInvestopedia, regulations would have a positive effect on the cryptocurrency market inreducing volatility in crypto markets and make ICOs a viable investment option. Asclarity regarding rules for reporting requirements and audit trails on cryptocurrencyexchanges and ICOs fundraising set in place, institutional investors will have moreconfidence in pouring their money into the market, as the market is mainly dominatedby retail investors and accounted for a relatively small portion of the global financialecosystem. The entrance of institutional investors could be a game changer in that itprovides a much-needed liquidity to the cryptocurrency market, and at the same timeprevents individual actors from manipulating crypto prices, thus bringing in morestability to the cryptocurrency market. Regulation could make ICOs a viable investmentoption for investors by ensuring accountability and disclosure, by standardizingrequirements on financial reports and business conduct standards, a more stringent ICOslisting process could help to avoid scams.Furthermore, if government were to ban fundraising via ICOs, the activity could gounderground, creating more serious economic problems like a widespread undergroundlottery and Thai business would go abroad to raise funds. Furthermore, a registration ofexchanges would allow the Anti-Money-Laundering Office to follow the trail of themoney.Even after its most violent price swings, Bitcoin prices have self-corrected, as do mostother cryptocurrencies. The long-term impact of regulations across the globe will haveon the cryptocurrency market will become clearer over time.14
2.2.2 EconomyBanks are significant institutions in financial and political framework of moderneconomies. The global financial crisis spread distrust in financial markets and theirgovernance. Unleashed in the wake of the great Recession, of
This paper provides a concise yet comprehensive analysis of the cryptocurrency industry using the PESTLE model with a focus on Bitcoin and its investment. 1.6 Research Methods This paper is based on a descriptive study focuses on secondary data, the majority of information comes from journal articles, news, opinions from cryptocurrency .
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