Semiconductor Industry Analysis And Projections - PwC

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Transcription, greener, smarter –reaching beyond thehorizon in the worldof semiconductorsA study of chip markettrends and the technologicaland economic driversbehind them

Faster, greener, smarter –reaching beyond thehorizon in the worldof semiconductorsA study of chip markettrends and the technologicaland economic driversbehind them

Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductorsPublished by PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaftBy Werner Ballhaus, Dr.-Ing. Alessandro Pagella, Constantin Vogel and Christoph WilmsmeierJanuary 2012, 62 pages, 25 figuresThe results of this survey and the contributions from our experts are meant to serve as a generalreference for our clients. For advice on individual cases, please refer to the sources cited in this studyor consult one of the PwC contacts listed at the end of the publication.Publications express the opinions of the authors.All rights reserved. Reproduction, microfilming, storing or processing in electronic media is notallowed without the permission of the publishers.Printed in Germany 2011 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of itsmember firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see further details. CH12-0081

PrefacePrefaceThe number of semiconductor components used in our daily lives is expandingconstantly. Chips form the essential core of many cutting-edge technologicaldevices such as smartphones, tablets, flat-screen monitors and television sets,sophisticated cars, new aircraft, and many medical devices. As a consequence, thesemi conductor industry has been growing for 40 years. However, almost no otherindustry swings as dramatically in relation to overall economic developments. So,will the golden era of the semiconductor industry continue? Have semiconductorcompanies learned and prepared from the last downturn during the financial crisisin 2008–09?How will the market for chips develop in the next few years? Which businessmodel will prove to be robust during the crisis and beyond? Where are the currentopportunities? What are the critical factors of success? We will try to look behindthe curtain and search for answers to those and other essential questions.Apart from an analysis of the major technological advances that will drivethe industry and sales projections for the coming years, this study comprisesa benchmark analysis of key financial ratios in the semiconductor industry.Experts who offer their view on technological and economic developmentsthrough interviews include: Professor Doris Schmitt-Landsiedel of the TechnischeUniversität München; Professor Detlev Grützmacher and Professor SiegfriedMantl of the Jülich Aachen Research Alliance; Dado Banatao, Managing Partnerand Founder, Tallwood Ventures; and Jack Artman, Senior Director and Head ofM&A, Infineon Technologies. We appreciate all these contributions, and thankthe participants for their cooperation and wisdom. We particularly thank O.C.Kwon, CEO fo Hynix; Rick Wallace, CEO of KLA-Tencor; Steve Appleton, CEO ofMicron Technologies; Rick Clemmer, CEO of NXP Semiconductors and Byung-Hoon“Ben” Suh, Senior Vice President of Samsung Semiconductor, all of whom havetremendously enhanced our study with their insights.The aim of this study is to identify the issues that will be the driving force behindthe market in the next few years, and to use this analysis to recommend actionfor semiconductor companies (some of which have already acted and are nowwell positioned to meet the challenges of the future). Which products, whichcomponents, and which regions have to be considered: this is the subject of oursales forecast.Is the pace of the semiconductor industry changing? Join us on our journey into thiscomplex world.If you would like further information or to discuss any of the findings in our reportand how they might impact your business, please do not hesitate to contact either ofus ( or or any memberof our global technology team listed at the end of this document.Raman ChitkaraGlobal Technology Industry LeaderWerner BallhausGerman Technology, Media andTelecommunications LeaderFaster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 5

Table of contentsTable of contentsPreface. 5Table of figures. 7Table of abbreviations. 9A Structure of the study.11B Is the pace of the semiconductor industry changing?.12C The global semiconductor market sustains growth.14D Technology development supports market growth. 29E Performance of semiconductor companies has been recovering. 38F Conclusion and outlook.52G Methodology.55Contacts. 596 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

Table of figuresTable of figuresFig. 1 Historical development of global semiconductor sales andmajor economic influence factors. 15Fig. 2Global semiconductor billings by application. 16Fig. 3 Global light vehicle assemblies by region. 17Fig. 4 Global light vehicle assembly forecast for BRIC nations. 18Fig. 5Forecast average semiconductor content per light vehicle. 19Fig. 6 Global semiconductor billings by components . 24Fig. 7 Evolution of semiconductor demand (billings) by region. 27Fig. 8 Historical development of global capacity utilisation. 29Fig. 9 Development of global semiconductor productioncapacity growth, measured in equivalent wafer startsper week (WSPW). 30Fig. 10 Global semiconductor production capacity by feature size. 31Fig. 11 Global semiconductor production capacity by wafer diameter. 32Fig. 12 Average profitability and minimum as well as maximum(average) values across different semiconductor business models. 39Fig. 13 Average profitability for fabless business models . 40Fig. 14 Average profitability for integrated device manufacturers forintegrated circuits (IC IDM) business models . 41Fig. 15 Average profitability for foundry business models . 42Fig. 16 Average profitability for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. 43Fig. 17 Average profitability for integrated device manufacturers formemory semiconductors (memory IDM) business models. 44Fig. 18 Average profitability for outsourced semiconductor assemblyand test (OSAT) business models. 45Fig. 19 Average duration of the cash conversion cycle and minimumas well as maximum (average) values across differentsemiconductor business models. 46Fig. 20 Cash conversion cycle for the fabless business model. 47Fig. 21 Cash conversion cycle for the IC IDM business model . 48Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 7

Table of figuresFig. 22 Cash conversion cycle for the foundry business model . 49Fig. 23 Cash conversion cycle for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. 50Fig. 24 Cash conversion cycle for the memory IDM business model. 51Fig. 25 Cash conversion cycle for the OSAT business model. 518 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

Table of abbreviationsTable of abbreviationsASICApplication-specific integrated circuitBRICBrazil, Russia, India and ChinaCAGRCompound annual growth rateCEOChief executive officerCCCCash conversion cycleCMOSComplementary metal oxide semiconductorCO2Carbon dioxideCOGSCost of goods soldDepr./Am.Depreciation and amortisationDIODays inventory outstandingDPODays payables outstandingDRAMDynamic random access memoryDSODays sales outstandingEBITEarnings before interest and taxesEBITDAEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisationegfor ceteraEUEuropean UnionFETField-effect transistorGDPGross domestic productIC IDMIntegrated device manufacturer for integrated circuitsieid estIDMIntegrated device manufacturerIPIntellectual propertyITRSInternational technology roadmap for semiconductorsFaster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 9

Table of abbreviationsLEDLight-emitting diodeM&AMergers and AcquisitionsmmmillimetreMRAMMagnetic random access memorynmnanometreOSATOutsourced semiconductor assembly and test companiesp.a.per annumQQuarterR&DResearch and developmentROWRest of the worldSG&ASelling, general and administrative expensesSIASemiconductor Industry AssociationSUVSport utility vehicleUSUnited StatesWSPWWafer starts per week10 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

Structure of the studyA Structure of the studyThis study consists of four parts. The first chapter starts with an overview ofthe industry and includes our main findings, summarised in 10 theses. In thenext chapter, we derive market forecasts until 2015, broken down according toapplications, components and regions.The following chapter deals with technology and technology trends. The technologydrivers – production, feature size, functionality and wafer diameter – are used toexamine the current state of technology and discuss expected developments.In the penultimate chapter we discuss how semiconductor companies performedduring the last financial crisis and how they recovered afterwards. We usedifferent financial metrics to benchmark the performance of companies accordingto their specific business model. The final chapter concludes the study andprovides an outlook.Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 11

Is the pace of the semiconductor industry changing?B Is the pace of the semiconductorindustry changing?The semiconductor industry has been growing virtually nonstop for 40 years, withglobal sales increasing at an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ofabout 9% p.a., all despite several downturns in the economy, the bursting of theinternet bubble in 2001, and the financial crisis of 2008–09. Since the worst of thefinancial crisis, the market has been recovering. However, concerns about Europeansovereign debt, European banking and the future of the Euro, as well as the UnitedStates’ federal deficit and sluggish economic growth, all conspire to form dark cloudson the horizon which may foretell even greater problems for the global economy.Apart from its high market growth, the semiconductor industry has beencharacterised by rapid technological innovation, perhaps best expressed by theoften-quoted (and often misunderstood) Moore’s Law, which postulates that thenumber of transistors on a single computer chip doubles every 24 months. Whileit has long been predicted that Moore’s Law would face insurmountable physicallimitations, it now seems as though changes in the production processes and newtechnologies may sustain this pace longer than many (including Dr Moore) believed.The third characteristic of the semiconductor industry is its need for huge amountsof capital to support both growth and technological progress.Can the industry’s historic high market growth be sustained? Is technologicalprogress slowing due to physical limitations in scaling feature sizes? And how didthe recent financial crisis influence the further development of this industry?We believe the semiconductor industry will continue to grow during the next fewyears, though at a slower pace than in previous years. In our analysis, we do notassume another economic downturn, despite current issues in the US and EuropeanUnion. We further believe that scaling down of semiconductor feature sizes willcontinue and that technological progress will sustain its high pace. We do notexpect substantial change within the next few years.12 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

Is the pace of the semiconductor industry changing?In our analyses, we derive 10 findings for the global semiconductor market:1. Current market conditions and outlooks are mixed for the next few years,largely because of the fragile global economic outlook.2. The automotive and industrial markets for semiconductors offer significantgrowth potential.3. The automotive market will be driven by the number of vehicles producedin Brazil, Russia, India and China, and by an increase in the averagesemiconductor content per vehicle.4. The industrial sector is growing because of increasing energy demands,a continuing trend toward renewable energies and the expansion of highspeed rail transportation.5. The data processing application market is driven by accelerating tablet sales,and the communications market by the still-strong unit sales of smartphones.Consumer electronics also benefit from a growth in units sold, particularly indigital set-top boxes.6. China will cement its dominant position and increase its market share of globalsemiconductor sales to half of the worldwide market by 2015.7. To meet global demands, global production capacity for semiconductorswill increase.8. Overall production capacity is sustaining progress toward smaller feature sizesand larger wafer diameters.9. Operating profitability is back on the positive side of the ledger, except in thememory and back-end processes subsectors, which face strong competition andcycles of overcapacity.10. Working capital is back to normal levels.We believe that these developments will have significant implications on thelandscape of the semiconductor industry. The need for capital and the high paceof innovation means that companies are increasingly specialising in individualelements of the value chain – such as fabless companies (those without productionfacilities) that design chips and foundries that specialise in semiconductorproduction. Integrated device manufacturers (IDM), which cover the entire valuechain, are increasingly adopting a “fab-light” strategy, in which some areas ofproduction are outsourced to foundries. On the other hand, we see a trend towardsintegrating more semiconductor features on a single chip. Only companies with abroad spectrum of product know-how will be capable of doing this. We believe thatboth movements in the semiconductor ecosystem – the disaggregation of the valuechain and the trend toward more features on single chips – will have a significantimpact on the M&A activity in the coming years.As China’s industry demands ever-increasing semiconductor content, semiconductorcompanies must have a compelling strategy for doing business in China. Thisincludes a coherent plan to access the market in the private and public sectors andthe need to deal with intellectual property (IP) issues.Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 13

The global semiconductor market sustains growthC The global semiconductor marketsustains growthAfter the global economic crisis peaked in 2009, the semiconductor marketrecovered quickly and global sales reached a record high in 2010. While billings fellby 11% from 2007’s peak to 2009’s trough, sales then recovered by a remarkable33% from 2009 to 2010, a pace never before achieved. This more than compensatedfor previous losses. We expect further progress until 2015, albeit at a slower pace,with an average CAGR from 2010 to 2015 of 7.4% for the overall market.The global semiconductor market is fuelled by technological developments, goodgrowth prospects in automotive and industrial markets and by China leading theway as the growth engine. At present, consumption in China accounts for more than40% of global semiconductor revenues, and we anticipate that by 2015 its share willreach 50%. India, Russia and Brazil may play a future role in the semiconductorsector, but with substantially smaller shares than China’s.Semiconductor companies may benefit by focusing on application markets withabove-average growth prospects in the automotive and industrial sectors. A strongpresence in China will help them leverage the nation’s huge growth potential.Current conditions and outlook are mixedGlobal semiconductor sales depend on a number of economic and non-economicconditions, as shown in Figure 1. The semiconductor sector is linked to applicationmarkets, which themselves are diversified. Major application markets for semi conductors are: data processing (including personal computers, laptops, serversand tablets); communications (including fixed-line telephone systems, broadbandinternet, mobile phones, smartphones and more); consumer electronics (televisionsets, music players, gaming consoles and household appliances); automotive,comprising both light vehicles and trucks; and industrial (including infrastructure,rail services, the military, fossil and regenerative energy, smart grids, etc.). As aconsequence, the overall state of the global economy is a key determinant for thestate of the semiconductor sector, as demonstrated by a strong correlation betweenthe growth rate of global gross domestic product (GDP) and the growth rate ofglobal semiconductor sales.Current economic conditions are mixed for the semiconductor sector. Dangersstemming from the high leverages of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and otherEuropean nations, as well as the high debt levels in the United States, leave theirmarks in the economic forecasts. According to “The World Economic Outlook ofthe International Monetary Fund” (from which all the economic data, as ofSeptember 1, 2011, in this remaining paragraph is taken) GDP in the US is expectedto grow by 1.5% in 2011 and 1.7% in 2012 and in the Eurozone by 2.0% in 2011and 1.5% in 2012. This forecast incorporates the current status of the debt crisis inthe Eurozone and deficits in the US. Japan’s economy is expected to shrink in 2011,with its GDP falling by 0.5% in 2011, but growing by 2.3% in 2012. Among the BRICnations, GDP is expected to increase in Brazil by 3.8% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012;in Russia by 4.3% in 2011 and 4.0% in 2012; in India by 7.8% in 2011 and 7.5% in2012; and in China by 9.5% in 2011 and 9.0% in 2012. This already implies wherethe growth of semiconductor demand will be highest: the hunger for semiconductorcomponents in the BRIC countries will fuel the global demand.14 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

The global semiconductor market sustains growthFigure 1 showcases the historical development of global semiconductor sales andidentifies several influential economic factors. Note that the distinct cycles ofsemiconductor sales closely mimic those of global economic cycles. Despite sharpdrops in global sales when the internet bubble burst in 2001, and again afterthe financial crisis of 2008–09, global semiconductor sales grew by a CAGR ofapproximately 9% annually from 1988 until 2010. For the last couple of years, 2009to 2010, global semiconductor sales quickly recovered and reached a record high ofUS 300 billion in 2010.Fig. 1 Historical development of global semiconductor sales and major economic influence factorsbn US 0Burst of theinternet bubble228.4255.3Financial crisisCAGR1988–2010 9.1%Major economic influence factors: Production capacity, cyclicity, technology, government aid, global economy, customer demandand financing.Source: SIA.In summary, despite all the economic risks and the potential effects of the debt crisisin the Eurozone, and the deficits and sluggish economy in the US, growth prospectsfor the global semiconductor sector are positive.Growth potential particularly in automotive and industrial sectorFigure 2 depicts global semiconductor sales by application market for historicaland forecast years from 2009 through to 2015. As Figure 1 shows, semiconductorsales recovered quickly in 2010 from the trough in 2009, which had reflected thefinancial crisis. Global semiconductor sales grew by more than 30% in 2010 fromthe previous year’s levels. Growth is expected to continue until 2015, but at a slowerpace: CAGR from 2010 to 2015 is expected to be 7.4% overall. The applicationmarkets with the largest growth rates are automotive and industrial, with a CAGR of15.8% and 8.9% respectively, in the years between 2010 and 2015. With increasingsales of smartphones and tablets as one important growth driver – though marketsaturation may come within the next five years – growth figures within thecommunications sector for semiconductors, at 7.0%, are comparably high as well.Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 15

The global semiconductor market sustains growthFig. 2Global semiconductor billings by applicationbn US 592.420091Data processingCommunicationsConsumer electronicsAutomotiveIndustrialCAGR 2009–2015CAGR 2010–2015Data processing11.2%6.9%Communications10.1%7.0%Consumer 5.7%8.9%Total11.3%7.4%12actual figuresforecastSource: Gartner (actual figures), PwC analysis.At the lower end of the spectrum are consumer electronics and data processing;we expect neither to achieve a substantial innovation breakthrough nor extra ordinary revenue growth and forecast only moderate growth of 3.3% and6.9%, respectively. Consumer electronics units are growing exponentially, butdeclining price is pushing down revenue growth. Please also note that we capturesemiconductor components for tablets – a major growth driver – in the dataprocessing and not in the consumer electronics segment.16 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

The global semiconductor market sustains growthAutomotive is driven by the growth of vehicles produced in BRIC and bythe increase in average semiconductor content per vehicleAccording to PwC Autofacts, global light vehicle assemblies are expected to growon average 6.8% (CAGR) between 2010 and 2015. In 2010, 71 million light vehicleswere assembled; by 2015 this number is expected to increase to 99 million. AsFigure 3 shows, this growth is driven mainly by the BRIC nations and, to a lesserextent, by the United States. Europe and Japan, the other two traditionally majorplayers in the automotive sector, show substantially lower vehicle assemblies andsmaller growth rates, with approximately 4.9% for Europe and 0.6% for Japan. Asof 2010, the majority of light vehicle assembly has been carried out in BRIC (31%),followed by Europe (27%), Japan (13%) and the US (11%). The remaining 19% areassembled in other countries (shown in Figure 3 as ROW, or rest of the world). By2015, vehicle assemblies are expected to shift further to BRIC (39% share of totallight vehicle assemblies) at the expense of all other regions except the US, whoseshare is expected to remain almost constant at 11% by 2015. As a consequence, thedemand for semiconductor content will shift away from the developed countries tothe BRIC nations.Fig. 3 Global light vehicle assemblies by regionUnits 22201322014220152BRICEuropeUSJapanROWCAGR 3%Total6.8%12actual figuresforecastSource: PwC Autofacts (Q3, 2011).Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 17

The global semiconductor market sustains growthFigure 4 provides a more detailed look at the growth of the automotive sector inBRIC. The largest share of vehicle assemblies within this group is in China, with66%, followed by India (14%), Brazil (14%) and Russia (6%), making China thelargest car producer by far. China’s growth in the automotive sector is expectedto remain high in the coming years, at 12%, and between that growth andChina’s market size, it is the major growth engine in the global automotive sector.The even larger growth rate of the entire BRIC group is fuelled by double-digitgrowth in India (15% CAGR 2010–2015) and Russia (16% CAGR 2010–2015).Although individually each are smaller markets than China, their extraordinarygrowth substantially contributes to BRIC expansion overall, as well as to globalperformance. Despite the comparably small growth rates expected for Brazil, itsaverage growth rate of 7% between 2010 and 2015 is still far above average, andhigher than growth in the traditional car economies of Europe, Japan and the US.Thus, Brazil is not to be neglected when considering the automotive applicationmarket in the context of the semiconductor sector.Fig. 4 Global light vehicle assembly forecast for BRIC nationsUnits GR 9%Total12.2%12actual figuresforecastSource: PwC Autofacts (Q3, 2011).18 Faster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors

The global semiconductor market sustains growthAs Figure 3 and Figure 4 show, automotive production is forecast to grow healthilyuntil 2015, driven by BRIC. To derive forecasts for semiconductor revenues inthe automotive sector based on these unit forecasts, PwC analysed the averagesemiconductor content for each common car category (minivan, compact, executive,middle class, mini, small, sports, SUV, upper-middle, utility, van) and based on thedrive-train technology (ie, cars with conventional fossil-fuel combustion versusnew technology vehicles with electric or hybrid systems). Given the different carcategories, we assumed semiconductor content to range from US 157 to US 1,800per car in 2010. Figure 5 depicts the consolidated result of PwC’s analysis, showingthat average semiconductor content is expected to grow from US 310 per vehicle in2010 to US 492 in 2015, with a CAGR from 2010 until 2015 of approximately 9.7%per year.Average semi conductor content (US )Fig. 512Forecast average semiconductor content per light 52actual figuresforecastSource: PwC analysis.Favourable factors for the increase in semiconductor content in cars include theincreased use of electronic systems in conventional cars, such as improved safetysystems and consumer electronics, particularly in the high-end segments, and theemergence of new technologies within the drive-train, namely electric and hybridcars. However, the fraction of such new-technology cars is expected to remaincomparably small in the forecast period: in 2015 only 9% of total car assemblies inthe light vehicle segment will be hybrid or electric cars, according to PwC Autofacts’forecast. Also, unit growth is driven mainly by BRIC, which produces a substantialnumber of light vehicles in the mid-range and low-end car segments, which havefewer or less-sophisticated electronic components. As a consequence, semiconductorcontent is smaller in these vehicles. Thus, semiconductor demand participates onlyto some extent yet.“While the BRICs are the demand growth engine, they introduce thechallenge of dealing with a large number of small customers whilesimultaneously supporting the global players who are active in all regions.”Rick Clemmer, CEO of NXP SemiconductorsFaster, greener, smarter – reaching beyond the horizon in the world of semiconductors 19

The global semiconductor market sustains growthIn summary, the automotive market within the semiconductor sector benefits fromgrowing car production, particularly in BRIC, combined with growth in averagesemiconductor content per car, linked to technological progress.The industrial sector is growing thanks to increasing energy demands,a continuing trend toward renewable energies and the expansion ofhigh-speed rail transportationEnergy consumption is strongly linked to economic growth, thus global energydemand is growing, particularly in emerging markets. In December 2009, theUnited Nations conference on climate change formulated the objective of limitingglobal warming by 2 Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels. Although thisaccord was non-binding on the signing countries, it indicates a continuing trendtoward regenerative energies. The earthquake in Japan and the subsequent tsunamithat damaged

Apart from an analysis of the major technological advances that will drive the industry and sales projections for the coming years, this study comprises a benchmark analysis of key financial ratios in the semiconductor industry. Experts who offer their view on technological and economic developments

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